Would America Risk a Nuclear War with China over Taiwan?

[Aepsilons]

Would America Risk a Nuclear War with China over Taiwan? | The National Interest Blog


Actually...They have gave it a lot of thought.


Or that they see enough parallels between then and now that they felt safe enough to make that assumption. One of those parallels is how Germany, under Hitler, felt about the injustices of the past and how China today feels about that 'century of humiliation'.


They did not have to assume. China made it clear enough that Chinese hegemony is Asia is the final goal.

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The problem is perception -- that China does not have enough of a 'positive' image as a power that must be 'reckoned with'. Yes, China's military is formidable and to reckon with China is to face China politically, economically, and militarily. But perception of those factors is independent of of the mechanics of how to face them, and currently and at least for the next decade, that perception is and will be negative.

It is not as easy to simply invade Taiwan after aerial bombardment as the Chinese section on this forum so naively posited. Back in WW II, merely 30 km of water separate England from continental Europe at the Strait of Dover. Germany had overwhelming control of the English Channel, from the entire coast of France all the way north to Belgium, and yet, never mind the arrogance of Hitler himself, no one sane on Hitler's staff felt that Germany could physically invade England without suffering casualties in terms of manpower and resources that it would negatively affect the war's effort elsewhere.

One hundred and sixty kilometers of water is a long way to go from mainland China to Taiwan. If being generous and say 20 kts or 40 k/hr, that would mean PLAN amphibious landing ships are vulnerable for at least 3 hrs on that journey, and 3hrs is generous considering it is unlikely that the route will be direct from two closest points between mainland China and Taiwan. So realistically and still being generous -- 4 hrs of vulnerability.

As expected, air power will be the dominant player in every aspect of the invasion. China could take dominant airspace control of Taiwan the way the Nazi Luftwaffe did with England's airspace, but China do not have the numerical advantage over Taiwan the way Germany had over England to make that control persistent. Taiwan's air bases are on the coast around the island and Taiwanese air power are vulnerable only to the naive. The RoCAF is proficient enough at using highways for air operations and the PLA do not have enough missiles to take them all out, by numbers and accuracy.

That mean even though the underdog, the RoCAF will be the equivalent of the RAF against the Luftwaffe to the point that it will give pause to the PLA for any amphibious invasion of Taiwan. As for the PLAN amphibious landing ships, the Taiwanese do not have to take them all out, just enough of them to demoralize the remaining force, and if the PLAAF do not have absolute airspace control over Taiwan, whatever remaining amphibious force that survived the journey and make it to Taiwan will be slaughtered on the beaches.

Hugh White may not have a high opinion of those who made assumptions about the US but he made the same mistake in assuming that China is militarily powerful to make escalation unpalatable to the US. So the question is not so much if the US is willing to go mano-a-mano with China all the way to the nuclear threshold and see who blinks first, but whether the PLA leadership have the same wisdom as Hitler's staff did in trying to plan an invasion of England.

The question is also not so much if the PLA can sustain its buildup. Yes, it can and probably will. But equally important is whether Taiwanese defenses will continue to build, not to achieve parity, but to make any PLAN amphibious operations costly enough no matter how much the PLA can build itself up. The PLA talks about area denial with focus on the US. The Taiwanese can also talk about area denial with focus on China.

Sir,

Would like to hear your conjecture (as well as that of @jhungary 's) on the KMT chairman telling Xi Jinping about Taiwan's eventual reunification with the mainland. How does that statement reflect on geostrategic and geopolitical interests for the Region?

advanced thanks , Sir.

 

[terranMarine]

Would they risk a nuclear war?

Not as long as they know they will have a good chance of being punished with nuclear strike on their own soil.

Problem solved.

Taiwan's unification, by the way, is going on as we speak.

Well i'm curious how the process of this unification goes, is Taiwan willing to give up the "president" position?

 

[TaiShang]

Well i'm curious how the process of this unification goes, is Taiwan willing to give up the "president" position?

In the event of Taiwan unifying with China, its institutions would come under the control of Beijing, as well. There would be some political arrangements but KMT as we know today would have to be abolished.

Elections in TW would simply be a local affair while defense issues would be taken over by the PLA. That's actually what I would value most.

Taiwan will just be a better place in terms of economics and development. I guess, after unification, life won't be changed too much.

As for US nuclear umbrella, it will be the majority in Taiwan to begin with that will oppose to be used as a chip for blackmail in US' own particular hegemonic fixations. Taiwan is no Japan and not even South Korea and Beijing has much greater 'silent' leverage here that it would mobilize when needed.

Again, let the US start a nuclear war at the cost of being wiped off of the face of the world. That's a a bit more than the 50.000 body bags sent to the continental US courtesy of the Vietnamese freedom fighters.

 

[Beast]

Would America Risk a Nuclear War with China over Taiwan? | The National Interest Blog

Probably if PRC attack ROC the US will come to save Taiwan. China wouldn't last too long against the US & Nato allies.

Somebody living in fat dream, ask ukraine or Georgia, did their so called allies come and help them directly with troops or aircraft bombing?

Now somebody can be so stupid to think US and NATO will help Taiwan?

 

[terranMarine]

Somebody living in fat dream, ask ukraine or Georgia, did their so called allies come and help them directly with troops or aircraft bombing?

Now somebody can be so stupid to think US and NATO will help Taiwan?

Funny that certain dreamers think the US will come to the "rescue" whereas most Taiwanese don't even bet on it. Certainly not after what happened to Georgia and Ukraine. The last Taiwan Strait Crisis sure didn't help achieve independence after US had send its Carrier so what makes these wishful dreamers think TW will ever separate from Mainland now that the PLA has increased its muscle multiple times since then.

 

[CNwansui]

figure out what would USA win and what would it lose to risk a nuclear war over TW at first.If USA wins the war,well TW would just keep remaining but if it loses the war the world would goes to its end

 

[Beast]

figure out what would USA win and what would it lose to risk a nuclear war over TW at first.If USA wins the war,well TW would just keep remaining but if it loses the war the world would goes to its end

There is no way, US will win the war in Taiwan strait. China will detonate all the nuke bomb and kamikaze with US. It either u let China have the way or dooms day.

 

[Huaren]

figure out what would USA win and what would it lose to risk a nuclear war over TW at first.If USA wins the war,well TW would just keep remaining but if it loses the war the world would goes to its end

If US does not get involved into the mess (again) it will send "fatal" signal to all american allies (and wannabes) in the region and beyond, and if US does get involved they will either lose by being beaten by China or lose by "default" like everybody else since China wont be able to back down without forsaken all the internal faith and legitimacy, if the process of reunification is set in motion China either wins or lose by dragging everybody down together, and there can be no victory for the US either way, they will lose big even without getting involved or back down during the process (including influences/reputations and faith of its allies), however the alternative would be to lose everything with everybody else.

 

[Beast]

If US does not get involved into the mess (again) it will send "fatal" signal to all american allies (and wannabes) in the region and beyond, and if US does get involved they will either lose by being beaten by China or lose by "default" like everybody else since China wont be able to back down without forsaken all the internal faith and legitimacy, if the process of reunification is set in motion China either wins or lose by dragging everybody down together, and there can be no victory for the US either way, they will lose big even without getting involved or back down during the process (including influences/reputations and faith of its allies), however the alternative would be to lose everything with everybody else.

Losing the faith of US allies is better than doomsday scenario. By the way, it's not even first time US do it. US has signed defensive treaty with Ukraine and Georgia to protect their sovereignty but as you all know. US is just a selfish liar.

It's not even a close secret that US will not come to aid taiwan and risk doomsday scenario.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

If US does not get involved into the mess (again) it will send "fatal" signal to all american allies (and wannabes) in the region and beyond, and if US does get involved they will either lose by being beaten by China or lose by "default" like everybody else since China wont be able to back down without forsaken all the internal faith and legitimacy, if the process of reunification is set in motion China either wins or lose by dragging everybody down together, and there can be no victory for the US either way, they will lose big even without getting involved or back down during the process (including influences/reputations and faith of its allies), however the alternative would be to lose everything with everybody else.

Losing the faith of its little vassals is still better than the doomsday.

That's why the US will do anything to prevent a real war in Asia-Pacific, so all they can do is to maintain the tension high, and also to start the proxy war against China with those liberal NGO craps.

 

[Keel]

The Japanese will find the best excuse to get actively involved in a military conflict between Taiwan and Mainland.

Americans will be stupid to nuke China which effectively helps the Russians retain its strength watching 2 tigers fighting downhill,

But when the event unfortunately happens, however remote it is, they will fully use their proxies in Asia like I said the Japanese will take the lead role followed by the Ozies and the Pinoys This is pretty much adopted as a standard strategy that Americans are using in recent military operations like the ones in the M East where they have taken side or back seats letting France or Saudi Arabia to do the dirty works more prominently

China National Ballet Dance Theatre

 

[Aepsilons]

The Japanese will find the best excuse to get actively involved in a military conflict between Taiwan and Mainland.

Americans will be stupid to nuke China which effectively helps the Russians retain its strength watching 2 tigers fighting downhill,

But when the event unfortunately happens, however remote it is, they will fully use their proxies in Asia like I said the Japanese will take the lead role followed by the Ozies and the Pinoys This is pretty much adopted as a standard strategy that Americans are using in recent military operations like the ones in the M East where they have taken side or back seats letting France or Saudi Arabia to do the dirty works more prominently

China National Ballet Dance Theatre

Preposterous. Nonsense !

Japan cannot use military force in Taiwan absent China’s consent, even if the Taiwan government requests its assistance. Why? Because the UN Charter’s Article 51 only authorizes an act of “collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations.”

Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations, and to make matters worse from Taiwan’s perspective, Japan recognizes the government in Beijing as the rightful government of China, and Japan further recognizes that Taiwan is part of China.

So unless Japan is able to plausibly claim that an attack on Taiwan triggers Japan’s own inherent self-defense right (and I think this is a non-starter as a legal argument), and unless a Chinese invasion could be said to justify humanitarian intervention (another very difficult argument), Japan would violate the U.N. Charter if it used military force in a way that violated the territorial integrity of another UN member (China). Japan could not invoke its collective self-defense rights unless it recognized Taiwan as an independent nation.

So, Keel, you're wrong yet again. Your rabid anti-Japanese stance is showing yet again. At least have the decency in covering some of it.

 

[Keel]

Preposterous. Nonsense !

Japan cannot use military force in Taiwan absent China’s consent, even if the Taiwan government requests its assistance. Why? Because the UN Charter’s Article 51 only authorizes an act of “collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations.”

Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations, and to make matters worse from Taiwan’s perspective, Japan recognizes the government in Beijing as the rightful government of China, and Japan further recognizes that Taiwan is part of China.

So unless Japan is able to plausibly claim that an attack on Taiwan triggers Japan’s own inherent self-defense right (and I think this is a non-starter as a legal argument), and unless a Chinese invasion could be said to justify humanitarian intervention (another very difficult argument), Japan would violate the U.N. Charter if it used military force in a way that violated the territorial integrity of another UN member (China). Japan could not invoke its collective self-defense rights unless it recognized Taiwan as an independent nation.

So, Keel, you're wrong yet again. Your rabid anti-Japanese stance is showing yet again. At least have the decency in covering some of it.

You are a lot more ignorant and naive than I think yet once again
Try to develp a coherent thought and chain responses through the following points
a. Search on the web to locate what it says about the US-Taiwan relationship agreement
b. what is the effect of the expanded mutual defense ties between US-Japan announced recently
c. If you expect the US military action would take into consideration of UN resolutions in war affairs you are likened to hold a baby from stop crying when his/her feeding of milk is denied
America wont take into consideration of Taiwan's status at the UN for curtailment of its military actions
d. the title of the thread is a moot case
e. credit to point b, Japan is an important proxy and more important than the Ozies and the Pinoys in Asia Pacific against China
f, see what Abe said here:
"It would be wrong for us to send a signal to China that the United States and Japan will watch and tolerate China's military invasion of Taiwan," said Shinzo Abe, the acting secretary general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party who is widely considered a likely successor to Junichiro Koizumi as prime minister. "If the situation surrounding Japan threatens our security, Japan can provide U.S. forces with support."
Japan to Join U.S. Policy on Taiwan (washingtonpost.com)

Now Abe is the PM and he fulfills his military expansionism through the conduit of the pronouncement in point b above

The Japan PM is binding deeper the Japanese fate with USA, They want your blood and your will be duly obliged to shed yours in Kamikaze fashion

Japan should be the number one proxy in war for the Americans if there is a military conflict between China and Taiwan and I repeat "the military conflict is very remote" however

Ancient Chinese Art of Paper Folding

 

[jhungary]

Oh my god, not another Hugh White article again....

Maybe it's time to grant Hugh White a Chinese Citizenship and We the Australian are more than gladly to hand him over to Chinese Border, just name us a date and a time and we will pay for the airfare

The guy is a joke, he was really cosy up with K Rudd when he was our PM, and this is the same guy why we have TOny Abbotts as our PM.

Sir,

Would like to hear your conjecture (as well as that of @jhungary 's) on the KMT chairman telling Xi Jinping about Taiwan's eventual reunification with the mainland. How does that statement reflect on geostrategic and geopolitical interests for the Region?

advanced thanks , Sir.

First of all, you can negate the whole question of "Would US risk a Nuclear War over Taiwan" by asking this;

"Would China risk a Nuclear War over Taiwan?"

Problem with Hugh White is he cannot see the interaction side of the equation, most strategist would tell you, if you are playing a war game, you cannot expect the enemy to do what you want him to do, in war, nothing goes exactly the plan, so it's equally important to think about what the enemy will not do as much as what the enemy will do in a given situation.

The dynamic is, if China wanted Taiwan that bad and considered to a point where they will think of using nuclear weapon to take Taiwan, that notion alone already negating the "need" to take over Taiwan, alas, there are nothing to take over after a nuclear war, fact is, China may not even exist after a nuclear war, so whatever the "need" about taking Taiwan has in China, it will not and MUST NOT involve a nuclear weapon, cause the use of nuclear weapon would negate the reason to use it in the first place.

Now, would US help Taiwan in case of a conventional attacks? The answer is Almost certainly "Yes"

Look at it this way, if Taiwan successfully repulse the Chinese invasion, that would
A.) Set the Chinese back a long way.
B.) Something to brag about'
C.) Taiwan gain more influence would resulting to US gain more influence in Asia.

Even if Taiwan fail, the US would still set the Chinese back a couple of decade (To be honest, one have to be quite insane to believe China will be unharmed after a war with Taiwan.) and that would also portrait China as a bad guy to other ASEAN country plus Japan and SK, and that will directly pull them more into the US camp.

Now, US cannot find any better proxy war than if China indeed want to use force to take over Taiwan.

The Chinese government knows that too, they cannot take Taiwan by force in 50s that probably be the last chance they can do it without any damage done to China, that why they won't attack Taiwan and peaceful unification is the only way to go.

Now, the main question is, what if Taiwan reunified with China? Exactly nothing changes, for the Taiwanese, either they accept One China rules or Special Administration Region status like Macau and Hong Kong, we all knew the second option is quite BS, so either Taiwan accept there will only be one China, but by the time the Taiwanese, with a different value with mainland Chinese thinks "That" China they want to be reunited with, "that" China will not be the China today, and unless the Taiwanese can find a "China" that is more inline with their own policy, there will not be an reunification. but by the time it happens, that changes the geopolitical situation for a grand total of NOTHING.

 

[Brainsucker]

Preposterous. Nonsense !

Japan cannot use military force in Taiwan absent China’s consent, even if the Taiwan government requests its assistance. Why? Because the UN Charter’s Article 51 only authorizes an act of “collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations.”

Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations, and to make matters worse from Taiwan’s perspective, Japan recognizes the government in Beijing as the rightful government of China, and Japan further recognizes that Taiwan is part of China.

So unless Japan is able to plausibly claim that an attack on Taiwan triggers Japan’s own inherent self-defense right (and I think this is a non-starter as a legal argument), and unless a Chinese invasion could be said to justify humanitarian intervention (another very difficult argument), Japan would violate the U.N. Charter if it used military force in a way that violated the territorial integrity of another UN member (China). Japan could not invoke its collective self-defense rights unless it recognized Taiwan as an independent nation.

So, Keel, you're wrong yet again. Your rabid anti-Japanese stance is showing yet again. At least have the decency in covering some of it.

And plus, I read about an agreement between China and Japan to not intervene each internal problem. So if Japan consider that Taiwan is part of China, then at Japan's view, Taiwan matter is China's internal problem? need a clarification in here