Will Iran enter to the war against Israel?

[Mehdipersian]

Pointless exchange leading to heavy losses.

Hezbollah reports death of member in Lebanon-Israel clashes, toll rises to 73

Hezbollah mourns 'the fighter Jawad Al-Bazal from the town of Bekaa, who ascended on the path to Jerusalem' - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

Israel kills seven more Hezbollah fighters on border with Lebanon

Iranian foreign minister says wider regional conflict inevitable as death toll among militant group rises to 78

www.theguardian.com

Israel does not fear Hezbollah.

Iranian foreign minister deflects question about threatening U.S.

But he condemned the United States for "interfering in all aspects of the region."

www.politico.com

Hamas is expendable now? Wasn't Hamas a part of the much touted Axis of Resistance?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/no-one-can-guarantee-control-of-situation-if-israel-enters-gaza-iran-threatens/

Should be easy to take out.


Some of the Iranians never miss an opportunity to gloat about Iran being a superpower and having superior war machine than the US. You can see these claims in this very thread.

This is not my fault.

I have always appealed to common sense in discussions. But how many have learned something?

We can hit American military equipment and bases hard. We can resist America's attack on Iran, But Iran's infrastructure will definitely suffer heavy losses.

No one has claimed otherwise.

 

[Blue In Green]

I fundamentally disagree with you here.

Even if Iran sets up some form of layered AD network in Syria, it will still be vulnerable to SEAD/DEAD missions by Israel and the USA. No AD network is hermetic, and definitely not on the border with an elite tactical air force like the Israeli one.

Iran only ordered small quantity of S-300 batteries (in 2007) and declined to order s-400 batteries even when offered by Russia. This shows confidence in domestic systems. I would like to see Bavar 373 operationalised on a mass scale, along with the Arman (Bavar 373 v2), but these are large long-range AD systems and very expensive, so it takes time.

It’ll be another 10-15 years, I feel, before we see a healthy number of operational BAVAR-373 batteries.

They’ve never ceased working on it since its original unveiling ~5 years ago. Maybe they are still determining which version of the BAVAR-373 is most suitable for mass production. Obviously it would have to fit into yearly budget requirements since it’s an expensive system to fabricate.

 

[HGV]

It’ll be another 10-15 years, I feel, before we see a healthy number of operational BAVAR-373 batteries.

They’ve never ceased working on it since its original unveiling ~5 years ago. Maybe they are still determining which version of the BAVAR-373 is most suitable for mass production. Obviously it would have to fit into yearly budget requirements since it’s an expensive system to fabricate.

Upgraded Third Khordad with 200km range Sayyad-4 (and S-300PMU2) plugs the gap for now, maybe that's why there is less urgency to operationalise original version of Bavar 373 so they shifted to work on upgraded Bavar 373/Sayyad-4B (and Arman) instead.

These long-range AD systems are extremely expensive. Just look how many THAAD or Arrow-3 batteries are in operation, very few.

 

[mulj]

I think the essence of LeGenD’s point is that Israel/America hold operative military initiative due to their immense capabilities. Anything the resistance forces do is a reaction to their movements and have been thus far, muted in scope due to mutual reluctance in widening the scope of conflict.

He does bring up a good point. Iranian officials tend to speak far too loudly. True or not, g

I fundamentally disagree with you here.

Even if Iran sets up some form of layered AD network in Syria, it will still be vulnerable to SEAD/DEAD missions by Israel and the USA. No AD network is hermetic, and definitely not on the border with an elite tactical air force like the Israeli one.

Iran only ordered small quantity of S-300 batteries (in 2007) and declined to order s-400 batteries even when offered by Russia. This shows confidence in domestic systems. I would like to see Bavar 373 operationalised on a mass scale, along with the Arman (Bavar 373 v2), but these are large long-range AD systems and very expensive, so it takes time.

Sure, that is the problem of any AD unsupported by air force and you are right, risky and expensive job but i would try it on mini scale regardless exposure to the enemy counter measures, cat and mouse game has to be extended if it is to costly fine seek other solutions but if it shot down some enemy airplanes in process before being destroyed then it is success for long term projection.
But lets divert slightly story, what are technical possibilities for "suicide rockets" like the developed "suicide" drones and already shot several over Liban.
For that you do not need layered AD, maybe only passive radar instalation that would detect enemy airplane.

 

[Blue In Green]

Upgraded Third Khordad with 200km range Sayyad-4 (and S-300PMU2) plugs the gap for now, maybe that's why there is less urgency to operationalise original version of Bavar 373 so they shifted to work on upgraded Bavar 373 (and Arman) instead.

These long-range AD systems are extremely expensive. Just look how many THAAD or Arrow-3 batteries are in operation, very few.

Agreed, but what concerns me is that Iran still needs to find a way to fix its air power so they at least have an “up-to-date” fleet that can work in tandem with IADs; relieving pressure from ground based ADS.

Those Su-35s better not be some sort of pipe dream…

 

[Stryker1982]

Iran would not be able to get away with it for long

Think again, US policy is containment, not war.

US main priority is China and Russia, primarily China. Iran is just a pain in the *** for them that's not worth fighting because consequences outweigh the benefits and then everyone is going to blame the US for "another MID east war". People are tired of this sh*t. Especially because no one in the US think Iran is an existential threat.

Pointless exchange leading to heavy losses.

Hezbollah reports death of member in Lebanon-Israel clashes, toll rises to 73

Hezbollah mourns 'the fighter Jawad Al-Bazal from the town of Bekaa, who ascended on the path to Jerusalem' - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

Israel kills seven more Hezbollah fighters on border with Lebanon

Iranian foreign minister says wider regional conflict inevitable as death toll among militant group rises to 78

www.theguardian.com

Israel does not fear Hezbollah.

Iranian foreign minister deflects question about threatening U.S.

But he condemned the United States for "interfering in all aspects of the region."

www.politico.com

Hamas is expendable now? Wasn't Hamas a part of the much touted Axis of Resistance?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/no-one-can-guarantee-control-of-situation-if-israel-enters-gaza-iran-threatens/

Should be easy to take out.


Some of the Iranians never miss an opportunity to gloat about Iran being a superpower and having superior war machine than the US. You can see these claims in this very thread.

This is not my fault.

I have always appealed to common sense in discussions. But how many have learned something?

I think you already know no one here is a decision maker in Iran, or know exactly how the thought process in Iran works. So if people say certain things here, it's not reflective of the state, and we simply do not know how they want to approach this conflict for certain.

If Israel did not fear Hezbollah it would escalate the conflict with them instead of taking casualties every day from their attacks on video. Israeli's are furious about the lack of overwhelming response. Israel has also restricted their airstrikes to less than 40km from the border. That's not a sign of supreme power.

My guess, is that no Hamas in not expendable, and regional conflict is the most likely cards between the Axis and Israel + USA. (Iran itself will avoid conflict as much as possible, just like the US is avoiding conflict as much as possible, this doesn't mean the USA is weak).

 

[Foinikas]

Iran will attack Israel. After all Palestinians are wiped out and the proxy armies in Lebanon and Syria have done their job as cannon fodder,when the IDF has suffered heavy losses in equipment and manpower,when the US is preocuppied elsewhere,when the road to Jerusalem is clear,then Iran will attack to claim victory.

 

[mulj]

Agreed, but what concerns me is that Iran still needs to find a way to fix its air power so they at least have an “up-to-date” fleet that can work in tandem with IADs; relieving pressure from ground based ADS.

Those Su-35s better not be some sort of pipe dream…

What happened with comprehensive agreement with China in amount of 500 bill usd, J-10 in large numbers would be qualitative quantum leap for Iran.

 

[Stryker1982]

What happened with comprehensive agreement with China in amount of 500 bill usd, J-10 in large numbers would be qualitative quantum leap for Iran.

The deal has not been implemented yet, it was more of a memorandum of understanding, but just looking at the geopolitic changes in the world and the shift, I think China would work to implement it because Iran is becoming an important partner to them.

If Iran wasn't the Iran it is today, their would be 5-6 carrier strike groups around China right now, about 11 more Patriot batteries and 2 more THAAD batteries surrounding China.

Instead all these batteries are around Iran along with 2 CSGs and other ships.

 

[LeGenD]

Are you American? You sound less and less like a Muslim Pakistani and more and more like a mouthpiece for the US given your posting history.
I’m not defending the Persians as much as I’m calling you out based off your posting history.

Who the hell you think you are? I don't care about what you think and you are nobody to decide what kind of views a Muslim Pakistani can have. Don't quote me again. I will not tolerate your trolling responses.

 

[Blue In Green]

The deal has not been implemented yet, it was more of a memorandum of understanding, but just looking at the geopolitic changes in the world and the shift, I think China would work to implement it because Iran is becoming an important partner to them.

If Iran wasn't the Iran it is today, their would be 5-6 carrier strike groups around China right now, about 11 more Patriot batteries and 2 more THAAD batteries surrounding China.

Instead all these batteries are around Iran along with 2 CSGs and other ships.

We can only hope that this the case but I wouldn't hold my breath honestly.

 

[LeGenD]

We can hit American military equipment and bases hard. We can resist America's attack on Iran, But Iran's infrastructure will definitely suffer heavy losses.

No one has claimed otherwise.

Yawn.

 

[Blue In Green]

What happened with comprehensive agreement with China in amount of 500 bill usd, J-10 in large numbers would be qualitative quantum leap for Iran.

Remains to be seen if it will be implemented.

It is still widely believed that Iran is looking firmly towards Russia for a revitalization of its Air-Force although China would be the only other alternative.

Now how willing the Chinese would be to draw the immediate ire of Americans by providing Iran with advanced jets is not known but to be honest. They aren't going to start sacrificing billions of dollars in potential sanctions just to give Iran some jets, in my summation.

 

[mulj]

We can only hope that this the case but I wouldn't hold my breath honestly.

Yep, that would be cold war kind of move by China to prop up main western "enemy".

 

[HGV]

Sure, that is the problem of any AD unsupported by air force and you are right, risky and expensive job but i would try it on mini scale regardless exposure to the enemy counter measures, cat and mouse game has to be extended if it is to costly fine seek other solutions but if it shot down some enemy airplanes in process before being destroyed then it is success for long term projection.
But lets divert slightly story, what are technical possibilities for "suicide rockets" like the developed "suicide" drones and already shot several over Liban.
For that you do not need layered AD, maybe only passive radar instalation that would detect enemy airplane.

Iran is a huge country and still needs to produce enough AD systems for itself, and does not want to risk its most advanced AD systems falling into the hands of the enemy.

Sure, small scale AD networks should be attempted. We see it already in Yemen.

Those suicide drones (358 SAM) travel very slowly and cannot intercept fighter jets, but they can be very effective against UAVs and helicopters. 4G+ fighter jets are generally quite hard to shoot down using ground-based ADS, unless the pilot makes a mistake.

Agreed, but what concerns me is that Iran still needs to find a way to fix its air power so they at least have an “up-to-date” fleet that can work in tandem with IADs; relieving pressure from ground based ADS.

Those Su-35s better not be some sort of pipe dream…

Indeed. Modern QRA interceptor squadrons supported by ground-based OTH radars and multi-layered long-range AD network is a potent deterrence to an Israeli attack. Attacking jets would need to carry AAMs rather than just bunker buster bombs, and they would be at a natural disadvantage operating near/in Iranian airspace. AWACS would also be helpful. I think the SU-35S deal is real and deliveries will commence in the coming years, that would be a game changer for Iran if delivered in sufficient numbers (ideally 60+ but even 20-30 stationed in West/Central Iran would make a big difference).