Will India ever mount an operation to capture Dawood Ibrahim?

[SQ8]

The second point refers to "Pakistani state involvement". You are harping on the quality of evidence, I'm merely pointing out that the GoI is absolutely convinced that elements of the ISI, authorised or not, were part of the operation. .

There are apparently certain circles that narrate retired ISI operatives still being assets. People who were handlers of past to ensure that there was no link back to the ISI directly. Now what if some of these handlers after being let go decided to plan out an operation on their own? Because in all fairness, I still dont see any tactical, strategic or even pro-Kashmir thing coming out of the 26/11 plan. I mean think about it, if there really was to be an attack.. why Mumbai? what possible gain , what possible effect could the Pakistani state establish other than fear mongering and that too when it is embroiled on another front already? The establishment does do dumb things but this sort of move requires downright daftness to be accepted as prosperous to Pakistan's cause. However, there are always those(on both sides) whose bread and butter depends on the hostility between the two nations and for those assets it might be useful to keep the pot boiling.

Quite simply the 2008 attacks do not seem to be from a current instrument of state. Ex-employees maybe, but then they were on their own. There are always theories of false flag to boost the excuse for beefing up the defense of India, but those are extreme hyperbole that go into Zaid Hamid territory.

 

[faithfulguy]

Maybe a good idea for another cheesy low budget Bollywood flick

You probably can see a lot of movies like that. And it won't be too cheesy consider that india in 2030 will have lots of white servants.

 

[Bang Galore]

There are apparently certain circles that narrate retired ISI operatives still being assets. People who were handlers of past to ensure that there was no link back to the ISI directly. Now what if some of these handlers after being let go decided to plan out an operation on their own? Because in all fairness, I still dont see any tactical, strategic or even pro-Kashmir thing coming out of the 26/11 plan. I mean think about it, if there really was to be an attack.. why Mumbai? what possible gain , what possible effect could the Pakistani state establish other than fear mongering and that too when it is embroiled on another front already? The establishment does do dumb things but this sort of move requires downright daftness to be accepted as prosperous to Pakistan's cause. However, there are always those(on both sides) whose bread and butter depends on the hostility between the two nations and for those assets it might be useful to keep the pot boiling.

Quite simply the 2008 attacks do not seem to be from a current instrument of state. Ex-employees maybe, but then they were on their own. There are always theories of false flag to boost the excuse for beefing up the defense of India, but those are extreme hyperbole that go into Zaid Hamid territory.

Can't argue with that but the Abu Jundal affair raises serious questions. Why was the Pakistani establishment so bothered by his imminent extradition to India that they put up such a fight with the authorities in KSA, delaying the extradition for months? Why if he was wanted by India in the 26/11 case & Pakistan was "co-operating"? Why did the then interior minister Rehman Malik come out & make a reference to him as an Indian national after failing to prevent his extradition on the pretext of him being Pakistani. This was even before he had been interrogated, what were they worried about him saying?

I believe this case was what convinced the then HM Chidambaram that the Pakistani state & not just elements were involved.

 

[SQ8]

Can't argue with that but the Abu Jundal affair raises serious questions. Why was the Pakistani establishment so bothered by his imminent extradition to India that they put up such a fight with the authorities in KSA, delaying the extradition for months? Why if he was wanted by India in the 26/11 case & Pakistan was "co-operating"? Why did the then interior minister Rehman Malik come out & make a reference to him as an Indian national after failing to prevent his extradition on the pretext of him being Pakistani. This was even before he had been interrogated, what were they worried about him saying?

I believe this case was what convinced the then HM Chidambaram that the Pakistani state & not just elements were involved.

That is an intriguing matter, but it may have more parallels as to why the establishment cannot have Hafiz Saeed or even Musharraf tried. I gave this analogy earlier but it is usually picked up by those who have watched the godfather or perhaps Lord of war(Nicholas cage). Just as there, the mob(or Yuri) are trying to clean up and go legal(in relative terms). However, they still have plenty of old associates that if put to trial would rat them out to the DA or at the very least give them very very bad press domestically. So while Jundal may not have been working with the ISI(as the element of the state at current or in 2008) he was definitely an old asset who might have links or clues to past activities (such as those in Kashmir or other places where India cant even fathom). Hence, even though him testifying on 26/11 would not really be as damaging; him testifying on many many other activities in India and many other states would be damaging to the ISI's operating network.

 

[Bang Galore]

. So while Jundal may not have been working with the ISI(as the element of the state at current or in 2008) he was definitely an old asset who might have links or clues to past activities (such as those in Kashmir or other places where India cant even fathom). Hence, even though him testifying on 26/11 would not really be as damaging; him testifying on many many other activities in India and many other states would be damaging to the ISI's operating network.

Abu Jundal was a fairly young man who moved to Pakistan in the mid 2000's. From then to the Mumbai attacks was a short period of time. I'm not sure how much more information he could have had considering his limited operating period.

I guess this will be a case of how things look depending on where you sit. Nothing that you have said rules out the possibility of state involvement being the reason for Pakistan's reaction on Abu Jundal but your logic is not out of place excepting for the question mark of Abu Jundal's operating life.

 

[SQ8]

Abu Jundal was a fairly young man who moved to Pakistan in the mid 2000's. From then to the Mumbai attacks was a short period of time. I'm not sure how much more information he could have had considering his limited operating period.

I guess this will be a case of how things look depending on where you sit. Nothing that you have said rules out the possibility of state involvement being the reason for Pakistan's reaction on Abu Jundal but your logic is not out of place excepting for the question mark of Abu Jundal's operating life.

Depends on the asset. For eg. there was this particular story narrated to me by a certain individual during one of those Tv lounge discussions at a military man's place; so I am narrating it on good faith. There was a particular asset in the Kashmiri political setup who was "converted" around 2000 and is now supposedly very "in" with Kashmiri government but supposedly works in Pakistan's interest. He is reportedly very young and the gentleman bragged about how it was a way to turn the Pro-Indian Farooq clan into Pro-Pakistan. Again, Tv lounge hearsay and best dismissed as loose grapevine but the point here is that assets dont have to be old or long term to be really important.
A more accurate and possibly more true case in mind was that of a PAF AVM's son whose father had to be told to curb his son since he was falling head over heels for an Indian girl not out of her teens. It was conveyed in very clear terms to the father that this was a honeytrap by your folks and verified as so. Now, an AVM's son does not seem big bait.. but is it or is it not?
So age is really not a matter and in some case its an advantage since you can ditch the fellow quicker as they possibly took less investment as someone developed over a long period. In Jundal's case however, the ditching did not turn out to be permanent and nor as secure since the handing over of Jundal was actually Saudi's way of giving us the finger over another act(but that is perhaps for another thread).

 

[That Guy]

Two quick points, we will probably end up running in circles if this is stretched.

I did point out that the main reason why this operation is unlikely is its success factor...intelligence, execution, extraction....every part. Nor is Dawood equivalent of OBL, to risk so much.

The second point refers to "Pakistani state involvement". You are harping on the quality of evidence, I'm merely pointing out that the GoI is absolutely convinced that elements of the ISI, authorised or not, were part of the operation. This has also been independently confirmed by the Americans(refer Bruce Riedel). GoI being convinced is what is important here and they are. The comparison fits.

I understand what you mean, but what I'm saying is that GoI can't do anything without actual quality of evidence, and the same would apply to Pakistan if India actually tried to launch a covert operation and were successful. They may be convinced, but if they have no evidence then the actions they take will be scrutinized severely.

Personally, I don't put much faith in US intelligence and the US government, I haven't since Iraq and the Arab spring respectively.

I still don't think the comparison fits, but to each his own, I guess.

 

[Rocky25]

I agree for the most part, but the fact remains that such actions would go noticed. India isn't the US and Israel, it doesn't have the same capabilities to mount such assaults inside Pakistan without the ISI getting a hint of it.

Is it so? If that is the case.... then Pakistan should never blame India on the terrorist attacks!!! They should have prevented all terror strikes... What makes you think that India does NOT have these capabilities even though India's defence budget is around 6 times as that of Pakistan? It is all about balls.... Till Congress rules it will never happen!

Never ever compare India with US... It will take another 50 years for India to reach what US is now!

As for Pakistan not getting sympathy. It's not about getting sympathy, it's about legitimate justification. In fact, you've just proven my point, the international community won't care about a man called Dawood, they'll just see India as violating Pakistani territory using military action, and that's all Pakistan would need to condemn India.

You are telling both, before you said Pakistan will get International sympathy... Now you are telling 'As for Pakistan not getting sympathy. It's not about getting sympathy', You got to prove it beyond doubt.... You have not even done that once, Pakistan is accusing India of creating trouble in Baluchistan... But it never gave any proofs to anyone till date... Pakistani government is looking for right time to provide proofs! I hope everyone can conclude on their own what it means. The fact of the matter is if India leaves trails that proves their hand is involved then they are NOT fit for the job... Till then you assume India does not have capabilities, I assume that Indian political class does not have the balls!

 

[That Guy]

Is it so? If that is the case.... then Pakistan should never blame India on the terrorist attacks!!! They should have prevented all terror strikes... What makes you think that India does NOT have these capabilities even though India's defence budget is around 6 times as that of Pakistan? It is all about balls.... Till Congress rules it will never happen!

Never ever compare India with US... It will take another 50 years for India to reach what US is now!

You are telling both, before you said Pakistan will get International sympathy... Now you are telling 'As for Pakistan not getting sympathy. It's not about getting sympathy', You got to prove it beyond doubt.... You have not even done that once, Pakistan is accusing India of creating trouble in Baluchistan... But it never gave any proofs to anyone till date... Pakistani government is looking for right time to provide proofs! I hope everyone can conclude on their own what it means. The fact of the matter is if India leaves trails that proves their hand is involved then they are NOT fit for the job... Till then you assume India does not have capabilities, I assume that Indian political class does not have the balls!

Calm the hell down.

 

[Contrarian]

That is an intriguing matter, but it may have more parallels as to why the establishment cannot have Hafiz Saeed or even Musharraf tried. I gave this analogy earlier but it is usually picked up by those who have watched the godfather or perhaps Lord of war(Nicholas cage). Just as there, the mob(or Yuri) are trying to clean up and go legal(in relative terms). However, they still have plenty of old associates that if put to trial would rat them out to the DA or at the very least give them very very bad press domestically. So while Jundal may not have been working with the ISI(as the element of the state at current or in 2008) he was definitely an old asset who might have links or clues to past activities (such as those in Kashmir or other places where India cant even fathom). Hence, even though him testifying on 26/11 would not really be as damaging; him testifying on many many other activities in India and many other states would be damaging to the ISI's operating network.

As Bang Galore said, your logic is sound, but the Jundal affair really seems out of place.

KSA and UAE have been the favorite parking grounds of people that cannot afford to get seen in Pakistan. They have always acted as safe houses for Pakistan - and concrete safe houses at that. India has a very small intel network in KSA. Things are far better hidden there than in Pakistan or UAE.

You can imgine then, the GoI was to put it mildly, wildly surprised that KSA handed Jundal over.

 

[SQ8]

You can imgine then, the GoI was to put it mildly, wildly surprised that KSA handed Jundal over.

That has to do with certain altercations and diplomatic anger after we accused(rightly so) the Saudi's of financing certain groups that specifically hit Shia organizations(which in turn have certain links to Iran). Seeing as to how dare these Pakistanis question our activities in their country the Saudis started the whole "hug India" parade and Jundal was part of it.

 

[Contrarian]

That has to do with certain altercations and diplomatic anger after we accused(rightly so) the Saudi's of financing certain groups that specifically hit Shia organizations(which in turn have certain links to Iran). Seeing as to how dare these Pakistanis question our activities in their country the Saudis started the whole "hug India" parade and Jundal was part of it.

You jape Sir.

Has Pakistan finally started lessening KSA's influence on Pakistan? Or is it as big as it historically has been?

I ask this question as Pakistani leaders and to some extent the people, have been aware of the activities of Saudi funded organizations in Pakistan for a while now. Has there been any change because of these relevations(so to speak).

 

[SQ8]

You jape Sir.

Has Pakistan finally started lessening KSA's influence on Pakistan? Or is it as big as it historically has been?

I ask this question as Pakistani leaders and to some extent the people, have been aware of the activities of Saudi funded organizations in Pakistan for a while now. Has there been any change because of these revelations(so to speak).

The change happened when Pakistanis(Allah be praised and I mean it with full conviction) realized that the Saudi's do what they do not out of Muslim brotherhood or compassion anymore but plainly to ensure the interests of the Saudi State. It also happened to be that a large percentage of the Hazara attacks had a lot to do with SA and Iran playing out their proxy war there.There was also a realization that the whole religious seminary process needs to be contained as they preach Shia hatred to the hilt; which while being good for Saudi Arabia is devastating for Pakistan's social fabric.There was also a worry by the Saudis on the Shia status of President Zardari and his government and as Saudi Arabia actively promotes an Anti-Shia message across the world the relations were tense. The result was that the establishment in no uncertain terms let the Saudi's know that in case thing go south due to Tehran's influence there would be no help from Pakistan to help the Saudi state. The recent "Saudization" policies also reflect the Saudi state's realization that it no longer can rely on countries like Pakistan to defend itself against Tehran.. and that lazy officers and crashing Panavia Tornados aren't the way to protect a state.

However, things may return to normal and Shias may find themselves in the crosshairs again as kalb-e-khadim-e-harmain is in power again. Khadim-e-Harmain is the Saudi Kingship.. Kalb.. you need to figure out on your own.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

That is an intriguing matter, but it may have more parallels as to why the establishment cannot have Hafiz Saeed or even Musharraf tried. I gave this analogy earlier but it is usually picked up by those who have watched the godfather or perhaps Lord of war(Nicholas cage). Just as there, the mob(or Yuri) are trying to clean up and go legal(in relative terms). However, they still have plenty of old associates that if put to trial would rat them out to the DA or at the very least give them very very bad press domestically. So while Jundal may not have been working with the ISI(as the element of the state at current or in 2008) he was definitely an old asset who might have links or clues to past activities (such as those in Kashmir or other places where India cant even fathom). Hence, even though him testifying on 26/11 would not really be as damaging; him testifying on many many other activities in India and many other states would be damaging to the ISI's operating network.

@Oscar. Abu Jundal may never even come up for testimony. His value is not to one legal proceeding. His value is to understand a full system. Which is why there is much quietude on the Abu Jundal front.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

You probably can see a lot of movies like that.

I spend more time outdoors, I'm old fashioned

And it won't be too cheesy consider that india in 2030 will have lots of white servants.

Right and Africa will be the bread basket of the world

And meanwhile the goras will be answering phones trying to walk, talk and act like hindustanis