Wide Asia support for US despite China rise

[Aepsilons]

An 11-nation survey of experts, who are not in government but are seen as influential, found strong backing in almost every country except China for President Barack Obama's stated policy of "pivoting" US resources toward Asia.

The study by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies found that elites largely expected China's clout to keep growing. But asked what would be best for their countries, wide majorities in the United States as well as its regional partners Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan chose continued US leadership, even if Washington's power declines in relative terms.

Elites in Southeast Asia and India preferred international cooperation, with marginal numbers even in China itself saying that Beijing's supremacy would be in their countries' best interest.

Japan, whose relationship with China has been deteriorating, was the most enthusiastic about a dominant US position. Only two percent of Japanese experts said that China played a positive role in regional security and 83 percent expected Japan's most important economic relationship in a decade to be with the United States, even though China is already Japan's largest trading partner.

On the other end of the spectrum, Southeast Asian nations preferred a "quiet, persistent presence" by the United States, said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the center.

Southeast Asians appreciate the US commitment to freedom of navigation amid tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea, but "they really don't want to see confrontation and friction between the United States and China," Glaser said at the release of the survey.

- No Chinese 'hubris' -

One surprise in the survey was in China itself, where 71 percent of experts predicted that the United States would be the dominant power in East Asia in 2024 -- more than said so in any other country, including even the United States.

The finding "really gives the lie, if you will, to this notion that all Chinese are just brimming with hubris and assertiveness and aggressiveness," said Christopher Johnson, another China expert at the center and a former CIA analyst.

Johnson said that the survey reflected a shift from the 2008 economic crisis, when many Chinese predicted a steep US decline, as well as growing doubts within China on whether it can sustain growth.

The survey reflects the views of elites, not government officials or the public. Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for a new form of relationship with the United States and has been seen as increasingly assertive in challenging Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines at sea.

An outlier in the survey was Thailand, which is a long-standing US ally. Some 89 percent of Thai experts said that China would exert the most power in East Asia in 10 years and fewer than 10 percent said that continued US leadership was in their country's best interest -- views sharply different to those in other US allies.

Ernie Bower, the center's chair of Southeast Asia studies, said that the Thai elite's attitudes reflected disappointment with the US response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and its brief sanctioning of the kingdom over a 2006 military coup.

The survey was conducted in March and April, before the Thai military's latest coup that has triggered strong US criticism.

India was the only Asian nation other than Japan where more expected the United States rather than China to be its top economic partner. Only nine percent of experts in India, which has a long-running border dispute with China, said that Beijing had a positive impact on regional security.

 

[Tshering22]

It is interesting to keep all business cards open, but a total US domination of Asia is also not welcome. They are not very reliable when it comes to a solid alliance. And as other countries grow in power, whether China or any other, this will be even more evident.

Japan must chart out its own course as an alternative to the USA in Asia. Make your military strong but keep them in a defensive mode so that you are termed peaceful and at the same time you don't waste money on small conflicts.

Japan has come a long way from Koizumi era of appeasing US all day. Now under the smart leadership of Abe-san, Japan must become economically stronger, more independent in military and must start exporting military hardware like France, Germany, Sweden etc.

If you think that no one is buying, you are so wrong.

Does US stop exporting to countries because some other nation has concerns? No.

It is simply business. Rise up.

No need for any unilateral hostility, but that doesn't mean you should not be independent.

 

[Kolaps]

China used to be a very good to entire East Asia that alarming US. To punish China for challenging US hegemony.

Don't you think the article itself kinda egoistic?

What if Chine keep the friendly attitude and keep challenging US hegemony? US will nuke China with no mercy!



The Bad China = World Peace!

 

[cnleio]

China used to be a very good to entire East Asia that alarming US. To punish China for challenging US hegemony.

Don't you think the article itself kinda egoistic?

What if Chine keep the friendly attitude and keep challenging US hegemony? US will nuke China with no mercy!



The Bad China = World Piece!

Who nuke China, China will nuke him with no mercy.

 

[Kolaps]

Who nuke China, China will nuke him with no mercy.

Your nuke is so tiny compare to US the peaceful.

Your country even don't have a long range rocket to deliver them to US.

It's better if you nuke your neighbor, it will make international community angry and you will be hated. But it's good.

Remember! You dare to make friends to your neighbor, you will be nuked 1000 times! It will be even worse!

 

[cnleio]

Your nuke is so tiny compare to US the peaceful.

Your country even don't have a long range rocket to deliver them to US.

It's better if you nuke your neighbor, it will make international community angry and you will be hated. But it's good.

Remember! You dare to make friends to your neighbor, you will be nuked 1000 times! It will be even worse!

Google

And we have DF-41 now

 

[jkroo]

The most peaceful coutry named USA has people claim that they will nuke China. What a joke and stupidity. Yes, USA had ever nuked a country - Jappan and I believe you will get revenge as I studied Jappanese and it showed clearly.

 

[Aepsilons]

It is interesting to keep all business cards open, but a total US domination of Asia is also not welcome. They are not very reliable when it comes to a solid alliance. And as other countries grow in power, whether China or any other, this will be even more evident.

Japan must chart out its own course as an alternative to the USA in Asia. Make your military strong but keep them in a defensive mode so that you are termed peaceful and at the same time you don't waste money on small conflicts.

Japan has come a long way from Koizumi era of appeasing US all day. Now under the smart leadership of Abe-san, Japan must become economically stronger, more independent in military and must start exporting military hardware like France, Germany, Sweden etc.

If you think that no one is buying, you are so wrong.

Does US stop exporting to countries because some other nation has concerns? No.

It is simply business. Rise up.

No need for any unilateral hostility, but that doesn't mean you should not be independent.

@Tshering22 ,

As we speak, Japanese position on external projection of power has already changed. In fact, i believe we have planned for contingencies many years prior to this past 2008 financial crises that has affected our American partners so much. Once we make the proper alteration to our constitution to remove the peace clause, we can join the ranks of all nations in exercising strategic defense. In addition, Abe's LDP party , which is supported by other parties, have brought to bear the need to restore the Imperial Office as the Head of State , not just the Symbol of State.

When this is done, then Japanese Empire will be restored. JSDF will be replaced with IJAF [Imperial Japanese Armed Forces], JMSDF will be replaced with Imperial Japanese Navy; JGSDF will be replaced with Imperial Japanese Army, and JASDF will be replaced with Imperial Japanese Air Force.

This is not enough, i also believe that as a great power and being the 3rd largest economy in the world, Japan must develop our Nuclear Defense Program.

 

[GR!FF!N]

I barely bother about "Real Intention" and all.every country has dream to expand and excert its pressure on weak countries of that region "Politically,Economically and Militarily".as about so called "China's Rise",its nothing but increasing capability of China and its not for benefit of any neighbour (like in history,any country's rise was never good for its neighbours).but problem with China's expansion is it is too quick,too much ambitious,too much unstable.USA didn't get the "Superpower" status in one day,nor they got the status by bullying its neighbours.they earned it using clever politics and policies.for any great power,control of neighbourhood is important.in history,many major powers have come and gone.one thing remain constant,that its enemy was not some power thousands of KM away(except Japan as it is a island state),but its next door neighbours.only USA is possibly a country which didn't face same kind of problem(Germany,France,Britain,Russia,Japan..all did).so,when China tried to rise,its only natural that neighbours will become envious.but China played its card all wrong.to challenge USA's might,it had to manage its neighbours cautiously.but what they did is completely opposite.they're pushing its neighbours to their boundaries.which can be achieved within a decade if they managed its neighbours properly and grow their might,now has become the very bone of contention among neighbours.see,none of the countries are winner here,but only USA.its only natural that more China will try to grow,these neighbours will pull them down,be it politically,economically or militarily.China might become extreme powerful,but it'll remain discreet in its own neighbourhood.the very seed of the demise is sown.

 

[Tshering22]

@Tshering22 ,

As we speak, Japanese position on external projection of power has already changed. In fact, i believe we have planned for contingencies many years prior to this past 2008 financial crises that has affected our American partners so much. Once we make the proper alteration to our constitution to remove the peace clause, we can join the ranks of all nations in exercising strategic defense. In addition, Abe's LDP party , which is supported by other parties, have brought to bear the need to restore the Imperial Office as the Head of State , not just the Symbol of State.

Now that is a decision beyond excellent. Abe-san is going in the right direction. It is pertinent to take these necessary steps. I don't know about restoring your emperor's power, as people of new generation in your country might oppose it.

But Japan must unleash its industrial potential as a bulwark in Asia. You have the technology, the industry, the capability, and the money and still Japan is subjected to so much pressure from the international 'community'.

When this is done, then Japanese Empire will be restored. JSDF will be replaced with IJAF [Imperial Japanese Armed Forces], JMSDF will be replaced with Imperial Japanese Navy; JGSDF will be replaced with Imperial Japanese Army, and JASDF will be replaced with Imperial Japanese Air Force. This is not enough, i also believe that as a great power and being the 3rd largest economy in the world, Japan must develop our Nuclear Defense Program.

US will never allow you to restore the power of the emperor back. Without strategic WMDs, you will find it difficult to oppose NATO countries or should I say the Allied powers.

Japan also has a population crisis that must be dealt with. You need more youth and badly.

I really hope your people rise up.

But Japan must unleash its industrial potential as a bulwark in Asia. You have the technology, the industry, the capability, and the money and still Japan is subjected to so much pressure from the international 'community'.

I barely bother about "Real Intention" and all.every country has dream to expand and excert its pressure on weak countries of that region "Politically,Economically and Militarily".as about so called "China's Rise",its nothing but increasing capability of China and its not for benefit of any neighbour (like in history,any country's rise was never good for its neighbours).but problem with China's expansion is it is too quick,too much ambitious,too much unstable.USA didn't get the "Superpower" status in one day,nor they got the status by bullying its neighbours.they earned it using clever politics and policies.for any great power,control of neighbourhood is important.in history,many major powers have come and gone.one thing remain constant,that its enemy was not some power thousands of KM away(except Japan as it is a island state),but its next door neighbours.only USA is possibly a country which didn't face same kind of problem(Germany,France,Britain,Russia,Japan..all did).so,when China tried to rise,its only natural that neighbours will become envious.but China played its card all wrong.to challenge USA's might,it had to manage its neighbours cautiously.but what they did is completely opposite.they're pushing its neighbours to their boundaries.which can be achieved within a decade if they managed its neighbours properly and grow their might,now has become the very bone of contention among neighbours.see,none of the countries are winner here,but only USA.its only natural that more China will try to grow,these neighbours will pull them down,be it politically,economically or militarily.China might become extreme powerful,but it'll remain discreet in its own neighbourhood.the very seed of the demise is sown.

I don't think the situation is as grim as you paint it. There is escalation but hopefully Mr. Xi Jinping is a rational man. He seems to be a pragmatic person who will understand the importance of 'taking everyone along' very soon. As the power returns back to Asia after two centuries of weakening, it is too prized a gift to lose in in-fighting. Chinese and Japanese might not like each other like the way we and the islamic countries hate each other, but there is no ideological core of hatred that is present between the two except for 'iam greater! no iam greater!'.

That can be sorted out still.

I have a feeling that contradictory to the news of near-war like situations rising in far east, both Japanese and Chinese might end up signing a peace treaty to not let go of this opportunity to let the position of power return back to Asia after two centuries of in-fighting.

Remember, EU was at each others' throats just 50 years ago.

 

[GR!FF!N]

I don't think the situation is as grim as you paint it. There is escalation but hopefully Mr. Xi Jinping is a rational man. He seems to be a pragmatic person who will understand the importance of 'taking everyone along' very soon. As the power returns back to Asia after two centuries of weakening, it is too prized a gift to lose in in-fighting. Chinese and Japanese might not like each other like the way we and the islamic countries hate each other, but there is no ideological core of hatred that is present between the two except for 'iam greater! no iam greater!'.
That can be sorted out still.
I have a feeling that contradictory to the news of near-war like situations rising in far east, both Japanese and Chinese might end up signing a peace treaty to not let go of this opportunity to let the position of power return back to Asia after two centuries of in-fighting.
Remember, EU was at each others' throats just 50 years ago.

someone said,"First impression is the last impression".I'm not asking USA to make pivot in "Asia".but I couldn't agree with your "Not as Grim as I paint it".think,25 years ago,Philippines kicked USA from its land,USA's power is declining,Asian countries are growing in both economically,politically and militarily.what could be better time than this to formulate our own block which could put us(Whole Asia) in driver seat than USA or EU??but instead of this,some dispute belongs to some "fkucing half sunk rocks" are getting out of hand and now,countries are bringing same USA to put leverage over one another.why??just because Asian Champion of development became too greedy.we're not supposed to be in the driver seat.because,we didn't learn anything form Europe.EU learned its lesson when entire Europe crumbled in WW II.I hope we're not going to witness that chapter in Asia.

and yes,this problems can be sorted out in PCA or multilaterally.but are we witnessing any such steps??Philippines and Vietnam already tried.

 

[Tshering22]

someone said,"First impression is the last impression".I'm not asking USA to make pivot in "Asia".but I couldn't agree with your "Not as Grim as I paint it".think,25 years ago,Philippines kicked USA from its land,USA's power is declining,Asian countries are growing in both economically,politically and militarily.what could be better time than this to formulate our own block which could put us(Whole Asia) in driver seat than USA or EU??but instead of this,some dispute belongs to some "fkucing half sunk rocks" are getting out of hand and now,countries are bringing same USA to put leverage over one another.why??just because Asian Champion of development became too greedy.we're not supposed to be in the driver seat.because,we didn't learn anything form Europe.EU learned its lesson when entire Europe crumbled in WW II.I hope we're not going to witness that chapter in Asia.
and yes,this problems can be sorted out in PCA or multilaterally.but are we witnessing any such steps??Philippines and Vietnam already tried.

Mr. Obama may act as a strong support for a few smaller countries and ASEAN and of course, a power balancer is welcome, but three countries are going to come up big in the coming years: Japan resurging back, China already on the verge of displacing USA as the world's most powerful economy and us about to go the China way in development.

The point I am making is, Chinese may eventually realize that to become a superpower, emulate US; Take all neighbours along with you to project power around the world.

Because one can choose friends but not neighbours.

 

[Aepsilons]

I barely bother about "Real Intention" and all.every country has dream to expand and excert its pressure on weak countries of that region "Politically,Economically and Militarily".as about so called "China's Rise",its nothing but increasing capability of China and its not for benefit of any neighbour (like in history,any country's rise was never good for its neighbours).but problem with China's expansion is it is too quick,too much ambitious,too much unstable.USA didn't get the "Superpower" status in one day,nor they got the status by bullying its neighbours.they earned it using clever politics and policies.for any great power,control of neighbourhood is important.in history,many major powers have come and gone.one thing remain constant,that its enemy was not some power thousands of KM away(except Japan as it is a island state),but its next door neighbours.only USA is possibly a country which didn't face same kind of problem(Germany,France,Britain,Russia,Japan..all did).so,when China tried to rise,its only natural that neighbours will become envious.but China played its card all wrong.to challenge USA's might,it had to manage its neighbours cautiously.but what they did is completely opposite.they're pushing its neighbours to their boundaries.which can be achieved within a decade if they managed its neighbours properly and grow their might,now has become the very bone of contention among neighbours.see,none of the countries are winner here,but only USA.its only natural that more China will try to grow,these neighbours will pull them down,be it politically,economically or militarily.China might become extreme powerful,but it'll remain discreet in its own neighbourhood.the very seed of the demise is sown.

@GR!FF!N ,

You're absolutely correct about unsustainable growth. The Chinese Communist Party, through past historical policies, are known for their aggressive and overburdening policies that are too gargantuan in size. They , in the effort of showing the power of the state, affect the ecological niche. In the 1970s, during Mao Zhedong's policy of agrarian reforms, the CCP set up a very aggressive land reform program, and industrialization was unchecked in growth. This lead to the desertification of many regions of China (Beijing, for example), as well as the eutrophication of Chinese rivers and streams. One case analysis is the pollution of the Pearl River in Guangdong Province, a result of unchecked and unmonitored dumping of industrial waste in aquafers. Currently, one of the major policies of the CCP, is the 'war on pollution'. This very issue is a direct result of unchecked , unmonitored industrialization and agrarian abuse. I hope that they can learn from this, as they have a tendency of ending up having a problem in the long term.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

@GR!FF!N ,

You're absolutely correct about unsustainable growth. The Chinese Communist Party, through past historical policies, are known for their aggressive and overburdening policies that are too gargantuan in size. They , in the effort of showing the power of the state, affect the ecological niche. In the 1970s, during Mao Zhedong's policy of agrarian reforms, the CCP set up a very aggressive land reform program, and industrialization was unchecked in growth. This lead to the desertification of many regions of China (Beijing, for example), as well as the eutrophication of Chinese rivers and streams. One case analysis is the pollution of the Pearl River in Guangdong Province, a result of unchecked and unmonitored dumping of industrial waste in aquafers. Currently, one of the major policies of the CCP, is the 'war on pollution'. This very issue is a direct result of unchecked , unmonitored industrialization and agrarian abuse. I hope that they can learn from this, as they have a tendency of ending up having a problem in the long term.

At least CPC didn't turn its land exposed to the nuclear radiation.

Now having fun with your Fukushima meltdown, and soon the whole Japan will become uninhabitable.

 

[BigDaddyWatch]

No worries for China. America's foreign policy grant strategy abroad will fail because it cannot solve its problems back home. And in Japan its the same. Abenomics is turning in to a disaster.