Why the west should listen to Putin on Syria

[TaiShang]

I seriously doubt the timeline of 3-4 months. Its gonna take much longer to take back even some of the territory lost to ISIS and US-Arab backed terrorists. And without effective aerial support it becomes very hard for ground troops to capture territory and then hold it.

What enabled the terrorists advance so effective (especially across/near Turkey border) was Turkey's self-administered engagement rules. But with Russian military moving toward that direction (which will eventually happen), Turkey's engagement will be annulled.

In that case, with effective intelligence, it should not be difficult to inflict heavy damages to terrorists.

Keep in mind that these terrorist convoys used to move hundreds of kilometers in open area across the so-called US air campaign. With Russia in the region, this is no more.

It may take longer than 3-4 months. But, I believe the campaign will prove to be quite effective, especially considering plans are underway to engage Iraq and YPG.

 

[jhungary]

But they aren't bringing their ground forces are they? Assad should have plenty of that IMO

Well, Ground Force is not yet a part of the solution yet, but seriously, the Russia are going to insert ground unit in Syria directly if they want any sort of improvement in the region. For one thing, the Rebel Army (FSA) were US trained, while Assad Force would be more then enough to deal with ISIS threat, but that is if Russia were really gunning for those ISIS people.

First it would be Air Strike, but Air support will need Seaborne Logistic, which mean clearing sea lane, which mean the Naval Expansion, then you will need bases, then you will need security to those bases, then calling in the ground troop.

This is how war were fought in the last 50 years.

 

[TaiShang]

There is no FSA left meaningful enough to put up a fight on the ground, by the way.

They are dormant, holding up few small areas. Most of the higher ups either fled back to Europe or enjoying five-star hotels in Istanbul.

The grass-root terrorists of FSA joined various less moderate terrorist groups.

 

[T-55]

US Can’t Find 9 CIA Trained Rebels in Syria, but McCain Claims Russia Did

 

[TaiShang]

Another interesting note, now that Russia is hitting ISIS and Nusra (mainly), it will eventually hit the border areas that provide logistics to these groups. There is no way ISIS will be defeated if their land connection with Turkey is not cut.

Who is going to to do this job?

Probably YPG, which is currently talking to Russia to join the campaign.

And interestingly, the YPG also has US, Russia and Iran's full endorsement.

 

[jhungary]

lol amaze to see someone (Especial the dude told other to ignore me) blame the situation on Turkey. lol YPG??

@Neptune give these person a lecture will you??

 

[TaiShang]

Russian defense ministry advisor's comments Jaish al-Islam declaring war on Russia: "Whatever, we'll f*** you up."

In a few hours, Russia's Su25s conducted two missions against ISIS base around Maarat al-Numaan, destroying ammo & explosives depot.

Enjoy...

First footage of a Su-34 fighter-bomber landing on an airfield in Syria.

 

[21 Dec 2012]

Well, Ground Force is not yet a part of the solution yet, but seriously, the Russia are going to insert ground unit in Syria directly if they want any sort of improvement in the region. For one thing, the Rebel Army (FSA) were US trained, while Assad Force would be more then enough to deal with ISIS threat, but that is if Russia were really gunning for those ISIS people.

First it would be Air Strike, but Air support will need Seaborne Logistic, which mean clearing sea lane, which mean the Naval Expansion, then you will need bases, then you will need security to those bases, then calling in the ground troop.

This is how war were fought in the last 50 years.

I don't really think their aim is to score a military victory but a political one by throwing in their weight behind Assad, which really makes plans for taking him down by NATO or the Sheikhs 'complicated'. Their port in Tartus is smallish and really how many men are required to guard any base in the regime controlled territory.

 

[gau8av]

I seriously doubt the timeline of 3-4 months. Its gonna take much longer to take back even some of the territory lost to ISIS and US-Arab backed terrorists. And without effective aerial support it becomes very hard for ground troops to capture territory and then hold it.

they have effective air support now with the Russians.

Russian defense ministry advisor's comments Jaish al-Islam declaring war on Russia: "Whatever, we'll f*** you up."

link ?

 

[TaiShang]

Let's hope Russia won't target and destroy all 5 US-trained moderate terrorist groups. In that case, all US objectives would be lost.

Kidding. Let's hope they are all destroyed.

 

[jhungary]

I don't really think their aim is to score a military victory but a political one by throwing in their weight behind Assad, which really makes plans for taking him down by NATO or the Sheikhs 'complicated'. Their port in Tartus is smallish and really how many men are required to guard the base in the regime controlled territory.

THe question is, is there any victory to be won for throwing support behind Assad Regime?

Russia have always supported Assad Regime, that was said many time before even 2009, and the act that Russia sending Fighter to CAP Syrian Ground force is an expected move. By sending in the fighter, they are not winning anything, but simply fulfilling a request for a long term allies.

The true question is how effective those air strike against Assad Enemy and how it will change the situation. If there are no Russia ground liaison to carry on those airstrike in the forefront, they are not very effective against Assad Enemies, unless Russian Ground force are in the forefront piping down target, or you would expect Assad Syrian Army can be as effective as the Russian?

Not to mention now FSA are going to ask the American and Saudi for AA weapon, they won't just sit there and let Russia bomb them to oblivion...

 

[TaiShang]

Lattakia

 

[21 Dec 2012]

THe question is, is there any victory to be won for throwing support behind Assad Regime?

Russia have always supported Assad Regime, that was said many time before even 2009, and the act that Russia sending Fighter to CAP Syrian Ground force is an expected move. By sending in the fighter, they are not winning anything, but simply fulfilling a request for a long term allies.

The true question is how effective those air strike against Assad Enemy and how it will change the situation. If there are no Russia ground liaison to carry on those airstrike in the forefront, they are not very effective against Assad Enemies, unless Russian Ground force are in the forefront piping down target, or you would expect Assad Syrian Army can be as effective as the Russian?

Not to mention now FSA are going to ask the American and Saudi for AA weapon, they won't just sit there and let Russia bomb them to oblivion...

It shuts out any any chance for Assad's enemies (Gulf countries?) to take him on conventionally knowing that a Russian contingent, however small is present. That could be a big psychological and PR victory for Assad and his minions and more importantly for Putin.
Militarily I don't expect much, but they could consider Arclighting the rebel-held territories. Not that Assad hasn't tried doing that with his helicopter Air-Force. But its better when you don't have to worry about ROE's and Human Right Groups isn't it. Would it make any difference in Afghanistan if we simply firebombed that country to hell?

 

[jhungary]

It shuts out any any chance for Assad's enemies (Gulf countries?) to take him on conventionally knowing that a Russian contingent, however small is present. That could be a big psychological and PR victory for Assad and his minions and more importantly for Putin.
Militarily I don't expect much, but they could consider Arclighting the rebel-held territories. Not that Assad hasn't tried doing that with his helicopter Air-Force. But its better when you don't have to worry about ROE's and Human Right Groups isn't it. Would it make any difference in Afghanistan if we simply firebombed that country to hell?

Gulf Country already ruled out a conventional war with Syria because of Russia Backing long before the air strike, that is why SA did not attack Syria themselves. But rather forming FSA to being their role in the first place.

And no, it would not make any different if we bomb any country to hell, bombing without boots on the ground does not do anything, while the question remain. It wasn't like the situation now before Russia is directly involved, no matter how small it is. The question is what changes will made to the region now that Russia is involved, that is the reason why US weren't involved in Syrian Civil war in the first place. that is to gave Russia an excuse to escalate the war, but now, the Russian is doing it, and you don't expect ISIS or FSA to simply lie down now Russia are involved, instead, FSA will ask a lot more from the US and SA for assistance. Well, I don't know what ISIS is going to do,

 

[21 Dec 2012]

Gulf Country already ruled out a conventional war with Syria because of Russia Backing long before the air strike, that is why SA did not attack Syria themselves. But rather forming FSA to being their role in the first place.

Its a far more visible show of Russian support and more useful for Sputnik types I guess.

And no, it would not make any different if we bomb any country to hell, bombing without boots on the ground does not do anything, while the question remain. It wasn't like the situation now before Russia is directly involved, no matter how small it is. The question is what changes will made to the region now that Russia is involved, that is the reason why US weren't involved in Syrian Civil war in the first place. that is to gave Russia an excuse to escalate the war, but now, the Russian is doing it, and you don't expect ISIS or FSA to simply lie down now Russia are involved, instead, FSA will ask a lot more from the US and SA for assistance. Well, I don't know what ISIS is going to do,

Okay. Then only thing I see is Russians bolster the troops already on the ground with better intelligence and CAS. And what kind of AA do you think FSA could use apart from MANPAD's. Russian jets could easily fly above them if needed. Decent SAM's could be hard to smuggle and much easier to find.