Why hasn't Pakistan been able to have a sustained GDP growth rate?

[Indus Pakistan]

Because unlike export led growth model of Bangladesh, India and Asian Tigers (Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong, China) Pakistan follows import led growth model. Import substitution policies have devastated Pakistani economy

Wrong. Your blaming the symptom for the failure. Ever wondered why Pakistan folows the import subsitution policy? The reason is simple. To go for export led growth you need to play in the global market and compete against global players. You will gain incredible rewards but only if your are leaner, meaner, smarter, work harder then other global players. If not your gonna be fcuked and you can't go runing to the government to bail you out or give tax protection so you have a monopoly which allows you to rape the poor Pakistan captive consumer. Just look at Pak auto sector.

This is akin to having a cricket team that only plays at home in Peshawar, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan and Karachi because it knows it can win against other local teams. If needed it can even get a odd wink from the umpire to assure victory. But suchy a team would never succeed in world class games in Australia, England, New Zealand etc .

So they glued within Pakistan lest they be exposed of their incompetence and inefficicency.

ribal chieftains don't like educated masses.

How many tribal chieftains rule the roost in Karachi?

 

[Alpha_PK]

Exactly. Vietnam won't go bust with that much import as its economy is export based.
View attachment 695730

Old stats.

Vietnam's growth is honestly very impressive.

Do you think Pakistan will be able to grow like that in the near future or nah?

 

[Norwegian]

But how much is it increasing in dollar terms?

Obviously it would have increased a lot in rupee terms due to the severe depreciation of the rupee, that was expected.

Yeah it's not much increase in dollar terms but if Pakistan continues to grow its export capacity, things will change for the better over the next few years.

 

[Indos]

This is Vietnam statistic

Overall Exports and Imports for Vietnam 2017

The total value of exports (FOB) is US$ 215,119 million. The total value of imports (CIF) is US$ 213,215 million. At the HS6 digit level, 3,831 products are exported to 143 countries and 4,399 products are imported from 141 countries.

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Vietnam is close to China so they got flooded with Chinese goods. Vietnam generally grows due to Foreign Direct Investment.

 

[Norwegian]

Old stats.

Vietnam's growth is honestly very impressive.

Do you think Pakistan will be able to grow like that in the near future or nah?

Yes, if Chinese companies move to Pakistan and start exporting from here, Pakistan can grow a lot like Vietnam.

 

[Alpha_PK]

Yeah it's not much increase in dollar terms but if Pakistan continues to grow its export capacity, things will change for the better over the next few years.
View attachment 695733

It was expected this year coz of corona. But it was stagnant before too, which is very worrying.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Do you think Pakistan will be able to grow like that in the near future or nah?

No. Vietnam was bombed to stone age by 1975 by Americans. But after that they placed massive empasis one education, education, education and no not producing madaris qurane hafiz's in millions.


95.00%

Adult literacy rate is the percentage of people ages 15 and above who can both read and write with understanding a short simple statement about their everyday life. Vietnam literacy rate for 2018 was 95.00%, a 1.48% increase from 2009

 

[Norwegian]

It was expected this year coz of corona. But it was stagnant before too, which is very worrying.

Pakistani export industry can't simply compete with regional players due to the energy cost being highest in the region.

 

[Alpha_PK]

No. Vietnam was bombed to stone age by 1975 by Americans. But after that they placed massive empasis one education, education, education and no not producing madaris qurane hafiz's in millions.


95.00%

Adult literacy rate is the percentage of people ages 15 and above who can both read and write with understanding a short simple statement about their everyday life. Vietnam literacy rate for 2018 was 95.00%, a 1.48% increase from 2009

They will be a major global power in the coming decades.
Just look at their military.
A very good military for their size which will only get better.

Pakistani export industry can't simply compete with regional players due to the energy cost being highest in the region.

But i've heard that this is improving.

Our ease of doing business index was improving too.

Will that help us to improve our exports or are we hopeless for the next decade at least?

 

[Indos]

I would say Pakistan should scrap that FTA with China and start putting as much tariff as possible base on WTO regulation since Pakistan industry at the moment is still in infant phase.

 

[Norwegian]

Ever wondered why Pakistan folows the import subsitution policy?

Because of Bhuttos nationalization that led to cartelization and monopoly building in various sectors of the economy. Pakistani economy never recovered after his fiasco.

Nationalization under Bhutto - History Pak

Nationalization is the term used when the government takes the control of anything that was ownned private previously.

historypak.com

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Of interest is comparison with Bangla. I would suggest the Bangla miracle [massive garment export industry] is premised on the hard working, literate and emancipated females of that country. It is the ordinary Banla girl who has literaly turned the fortune of Bangladesh through her hard work. Notice femalke literacy is far better in Bangladesh. This feeds into a better educated, better fed and better equipped future generation as women are critical in that. Meaning a better educated girl equals a better future popoulation resource that can actually compete in global economy. Not b e cannon fodder for exploding vests, mullah foot soldiers to create choas and burning their own cities because some Danish twat burned the holy Quran.

Pakistan: Overall literacy rate is 57.9% (male=69.5%, women=45.8%)
Bangladesh:Overall literacy rate is 61.6% (male=64.6%, women=58.5%)

Please note that while difference is around 6% between genders in Bangladesh, it is striking 24% in case of Pakistan. Also see that while Pakistani men are some 5% behind Bangladeshi men, the situation become serious with 13% gap for women. In fact, India can also learn few things from its eastern neighbour.

Because of Bhuttos nationalization that led to cartelization and monopoly building

That is a worn excuse. China was mother of nationalized economy that Bhutto was inspired by. It began opening up long after Bhutto was dead and buried. China began to really open up in Gen Zia's time who was alt-right. In that time look what Shanghai became and look where Karachi is.

So, sorry that excuse does not fly ...

 

[Norwegian]

Will that help us to improve our exports or are we hopeless for the next decade at least?

Of course we are hopeless unless our Chinese friends move their industries to Pakistan and start exporting from Gawadar that they have built. @beijingwalker should give us a deadline when it will happen.

 

[Alpha_PK]

Of interest is comparison with Bangla. I would suggest the Bangla miracle [massive garment export industry] is premised on the hard working, literate and emancipated females of that country. It is the ordinary Banla girl who has literaly turned the fortune of Bangladesh through her hard work. Notice femalke literacy is far better in Bangladesh. This feeds into a better educated, better fed and better equipped future generation as women are critical in that. Meaning a better educated girl equals a better future popoulation resource that can actually compete in global economy. Not b e cannon fodder for exploding vests, mullah foot soldiers to create choas and burning their own cities because some Danish twat burned the holy Quran.

Pakistan: Overall literacy rate is 57.9% (male=69.5%, women=45.8%)
Bangladesh:Overall literacy rate is 61.6% (male=64.6%, women=58.5%)

Please note that while difference is around 6% between genders in Bangladesh, it is striking 24% in case of Pakistan. Also see that while Pakistani men are some 5% behind Bangladeshi men, the situation become serious with 13% gap for women. In fact, India can also learn few things from its eastern neighbour.

Yeah i just noticed this too.

I was looking at the HDI indicators (2021 version coming out on the 15th), i was surprised to see that the HDI for men in Bangaldesh was 0.6 odd and very similar for men in Pakistan.

But the women hdi in Bangladesh was around 0.58 but was 0.48 in Pakistan.

This is where we're lacking.

Pakistani women are not working enough so our country is not improving.

 

[Norwegian]

That is a worn excuse. China was mother of nationalized economy that Bhutto was inspired by. It began opening up long after Bhutto was dead and buried. China began to really open up in Gen Zia's time who was alt-right. In that time look what Shanghai became and look where Karachi is.

China's economy was initially only opened in special economic zones. Entire China was never opened.

Special economic zones of China - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org