Why China Will Lose the War It is Planning

[Carlosa]

The original article is a wee bit sensational, don't you guys agree?

lol

Yes, it is a bit sensational and one heck of a hypothetical situation, I just like the military scenarios.

I will give you our position.

In the Decoration of Conduct, we agree with all claimants share not change the status quo by conducting arrest on fishermen. The Philippines instigated this event by trying to change the status quo and arresting our fisherman first. I believe the Philippines feeling confidence, thank to US pivot to Asia annoucement that they want to instigate a change in status quo. Little do they know, we responded quickly and the US showed no sign of aiding them. This is their biggest mistake being overconfidence.

Same thing happen to Japan. In 1970s, we both agreed to not to change the status quo. Yet it was Japan that instigated this event by nationalizing a dispute. Tell me, why blame on us?

STOP blaming us for everything. We said many times that we want to solve this peacefully in BILATERAL NEGOTIATION but these claimants want to internationalize them and make this into a multilateral negotiation. We said no. Non-party should NOT have any said in settlement.

Reclamation works had always been done by all claimants. We are, in fact, the last to do it. Like I said, we only expand and make our control territory more "livable".

If you want to talk about fishermen, what country has extensibly used fishermen as a tool to promote those claims as a pseudo arm of the chinese coast guard? We all know.

How many times chinese fishing boats hit, sank, etc PH and Viet boats? Many times.

You say that PH should not have detained chinese fishermen that were poaching endangered species on waters and reefs close to PH? And how many times the chinese coast guard detained PH and VN fishing boats? Far more as the records show, we all know that.

Regarding the Senkakus, I knew you were going to say that it was because the Japanese government bought it from the private owners, but why did they do that? As you very well know, the private owners were going to sell the islands to that very radical governor of Tokyo I think it was, @Nihonjin1051 can give us the details. That guy had very radical plans for the islands, he wanted to actually used them and build there, so in order to prevent that from happening and in order to not upset the status quo, the Japanese government nationalized the islands, actually to protect the status quo and keep harmony with china, they had no other option, but china instead used that to escalate the situation and create an actual conflict that could easily get out of hand.

You guys are making excuses, the record speaks clearly enough, you get blamed because of your actions and those actions are your own decisions so you have to accept responsibility for the consequences of those actions.

Cheers.

 

[Ind4Ever]

I wonder why all these hypothetical articles always point to China as the instigator for war but not Japan, Philippines, and Vietnam? Because they know, if any of these countries would to fire the first shot, they are finish.

Sorry if you think China won't start a war. Their aggressive movement will invite accidental offensive from its enemies . US and Russia will follow some procedures to avert any misadventures but SCS is the region is versatile . With lots of ego , ethnic difference , superiority inferiority complex . Not the case with US and Russia. Both respect each other . Again not the case with SCS or even India and Pakistan . Small mistake may turn into full blown war.

 

[Aepsilons]

In my opinion China has a lot more to gain by being friendly and cooperating with others.
If the idea here is that by becoming bigger, you have to act like big powers often act, creating empires and dominating others, which is how US did as they rose throughout their history and many others, well, that's fine, you have the means to do that. but don't expect to be seen as a nice, peaceful country; the choice is all yours as to how to proceed and how you will be seen

Very well thought out post and strategic, i might add. If I were to discern the CPC's visage in their 9 dash claim it would be this, amigo, they are implementing a Policy of Continuity. The CPC claims legitimacy by stating that they are the successor of the ROC's Kuomintang , which also claims almost all of the SCS. The fact that the Kuomintang claims the same region , thus necessitates the CPC's extension of its own shelf and parallels the Kuomintang's claim, if it truly wants to emphasize itself being the successor of the ROC. It is no longer an issue of diplomacy, but, rather, an issue of the part's legitimacy. If the CPC reneges on its claim , it would be seen as weak, unable to maintain Chinese territory, and thus any fringe groups in China would claim that the CPC no longer holds the mandate to rule since it would be willing to renege any inch of Chinese territory. In this case, one has to see that the CPC is holding back the winds of the ultranatinoalism and the ultranationalists in China who would risk open war. One has to appreciate the internal politics and dynamics of the cadres that make up the Party, especially the Committee of the CPC, such as Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan, Zhang Gaoli,-- who themselves represent a host from the CPC's base.

Objectively, the CPC cannot part even an inch of its claim. It is not an issue of diplomatic intercommensurability, but is an existential issue. It is not an issue of CPC not wanting to negotiate, the CPC cannot do it. So what can we expect? There is a political solution to this: To observe the notion of Modus Vivendi -- or in English, "Agree to Disagree".

Modus Vivendi can work, so long as all sides can acquiesce to a Binding Declaration of Code of Conduct.

 

[Genesis]

Sorry if you think China won't start a war. Their aggressive movement will invite accidental offensive from its enemies . US and Russia will follow some procedures to avert any misadventures but SCS is the region is versatile . With lots of ego , ethnic difference , superiority inferiority complex . Not the case with US and Russia. Both respect each other . Again not the case with SCS or even India and Pakistan . Small mistake may turn into full blown war.

China won't start a war, you know how I know that. The current projections and realities.

What I means is the difference in capabilities is only going to get bigger in our favor. We could potentially win without doing anything.

I know they are also doing things, but the way things stand, it really doesn't matter.

 

[xunzi]

Sorry if you think China won't start a war. Their aggressive movement will invite accidental offensive from its enemies . US and Russia will follow some procedures to avert any misadventures but SCS is the region is versatile . With lots of ego , ethnic difference , superiority inferiority complex . Not the case with US and Russia. Both respect each other . Again not the case with SCS or even India and Pakistan . Small mistake may turn into full blown war.

So you are saying that it will them that start the war? In that case, we have to act responsibly and this will give the US no reason to participate because their job is to defend, not aiding other states attacking us. You know the consequence of other state attacking us right?

 

[Genesis]

Very well thought out post and strategic, i might add. If I were to discern the CPC's visage in their 9 dash claim it would be this, amigo, they are implementing a Policy of Continuity. The CPC claims legitimacy by stating that they are the successor of the ROC's Kuomintang , which also claims almost all of the SCS. The fact that the Kuomintang claims the same region , thus necessitates the CPC's extension of its own shelf and parallels the Kuomintang's claim, if it truly wants to emphasize itself being the successor of the ROC. It is no longer an issue of diplomacy, but, rather, an issue of the part's legitimacy. If the CPC reneges on its claim , it would be seen as weak, unable to maintain Chinese territory, and thus any fringe groups in China would claim that the CPC no longer holds the mandate to rule since it would be willing to renege any inch of Chinese territory. In this case, one has to see that the CPC is holding back the winds of the ultranatinoalism and the ultranationalists in China who would risk open war. One has to appreciate the internal politics and dynamics of the cadres that make up the Party, especially the Committee of the CPC, such as Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan, Zhang Gaoli,-- who themselves represent a host from the CPC's base.

Objectively, the CPC cannot part even an inch of its claim. It is not an issue of diplomatic intercommensurability, but is an existential issue. It is not an issue of CPC not wanting to negotiate, the CPC cannot do it. So what can we expect? There is a political solution to this: To observe the notion of Modus Vivendi -- or in English, "Agree to Disagree".

Modus Vivendi can work, so long as all sides can acquiesce to a Binding Declaration of Code of Conduct.

I believe this is a great move by China. We aren't really doing anything irreversible if we are to get down to it.

On the other hand we are forcing the others hands, they must decide where they stand and start asking themselves questions they otherwise wouldn't ask, like how should China and they progress in the future. that's not the best part. The best part is that in the end, we hold the key, we won't fire obviously and if they fire we win, even if they don't we still win.

This would effectively end any discussion on where China's place in the world is.

A good strategy used by Tokugawa Ieyasu, when he fired on Kobayakawa, to force him to make the choice. We are essentially doing this now, but obviously way less risk, in SCS, with Japan it's a bit more risk.


If we had just left this dragging on, then more time would be wasted and without the prestige I'm not sure Chinese economy can progress smoothly.

 

[Ind4Ever]

China won't start a war, you know how I know that. The current projections and realities.

What I means is the difference in capabilities is only going to get bigger in our favor. We could potentially win without doing anything.

I know they are also doing things, but the way things stand, it really doesn't matter.

I don't know who is telling all these stories to you. Tell them it's not gonna happen. Because no one is going to surrender their land without a fight. Remember Chino Vietnam war ? In just few days of war China lost more than 1000 soldiers and packed their bags. Hat is the size of China and Vietnam ?

So size is not matter the will and strategy does . All SCS countries will join hands to fight China to sort this problem permenantly.

 

[Genesis]

I don't know who is telling all these stories to you. Tell them it's not gonna happen. Because no one is going to surrender their land without a fight. Remember Chino Vietnam war ? In just few days of war China lost more than 1000 soldiers and packed their bags. Hat is the size of China and Vietnam ?

So size is not matter the will and strategy does . All SCS countries will join hands to fight China to sort this problem permenantly.

Then they can fire the first shot.

Even if all join hands, which they won't, there's lots of reasons why, but since you brought it up I assume you don't even know one.

China is still head and shoulders stronger than combined.

 

[Ind4Ever]

So you are saying that it will them that start the war? In that case, we have to act responsibly and this will give the US no reason to participate because their job is to defend, not aiding other states attacking us. You know the consequence of other state attacking us right?

What consequences ? The main goal of attacking is to crippling that country. Chinese are playing pokers in real term and in funny term like poking it's neighbours to give an impression of super power abilities. But once it move into next stage which is war then China has to do it on the ground . With combined strength of SCS or stand alone capacities of Japs India Pacific fleet Aussies Vietnam Singapore Taiwan can inflict more damage to china than what China can do to them .

Slowing down economy of China will be another reason to start a war. So the communist party can getaway by using was as a reason for economic slowdown. But it will be a wrong move . It will further cripple your economy . And so increase unrest with in your country against the communist. At the times of War most of your western provinces will go against your establishment. Trying their luck for fresh freedom struggle.

So yes I belive this way of Chinese will back fire them . Wrong and Bad foresight. Lots of immaturity

 

[Pangu]

Lol, nonsensical article. Why on earth are we pushing for the Maritime Silk Road project AND planning for war at the same time?

 

[Ind4Ever]

Then they can fire the first shot.

Even if all join hands, which they won't, there's lots of reasons why, but since you brought it up I assume you don't even know one.

China is still head and shoulders stronger than combined.

So please explain me the how China will defend against SCS countries combined. And you said there are many reason they won't come together but let me tell there is no need for many reason but just one reason will being then all together . Which is their survivability ! Simple but very intense don't you think ?

 

[Aepsilons]

I believe this is a great move by China. We aren't really doing anything irreversible if we are to get down to it.

On the other hand we are forcing the others hands, they must decide where they stand and start asking themselves questions they otherwise wouldn't ask, like how should China and they progress in the future. that's not the best part. The best part is that in the end, we hold the key, we won't fire obviously and if they fire we win, even if they don't we still win.

This would effectively end any discussion on where China's place in the world is.

A good strategy used by Tokugawa Ieyasu, when he fired on Kobayakawa, to force him to make the choice. We are essentially doing this now, but obviously way less risk, in SCS, with Japan it's a bit more risk.


If we had just left this dragging on, then more time would be wasted and without the prestige I'm not sure Chinese economy can progress smoothly.

Modus Vivendi already exists in the Sino-Japanese intergovernmental apparatus. Our sides claim Senkakus , our side has an ADIZ, your side claims Diaoyutai, also has an ADIZ, and in essence both sides know the other's position, but disagree. There is a mechanism here set in place and there is a professional military way of carrying each others' interests without giving in to the other. In essence, it is hitting two birds with one stone: 1) maintain national solidarity and territorial integrity, all the while appeasing the nationalist segments of each others' nation, and 2) enabling a way for both sides to move past the combined political-diplomatic impasse.

If Modus Vivendi can work with Japan and China , there is no reason why it cannot work in the SCS. I am objective here -- as i try to be -- and if China can make it work in the SCS sans military conflict, then it will be a signal to the entire world , especially to the United States and Japan , of the maturity of the China.

Again I am very optimistic about the CPC Leadership thus far, which i have more than once appraised in multiple threads , especially in :

The Need of Sino-Japanese Correspondence in the 21st Century: Is there an Empirical Validation ?

I believe that the CPC of the present epoch is not the same as the CPC of say in the 1960s, 1970s. The current leadership has been schooled and well versed in modern policies , aware of the importance of regional stability , considering it is in China's sphere of influence and literally in her backyard. We should be more optimistic and give credit for Beijing to solve this amicably and peacefully, understanding the political complexity.

 

[xunzi]

What consequences ? The main goal of attacking is to crippling that country. Chinese are playing pokers in real term and in funny term like poking it's neighbours to give an impression of super power abilities. But once it move into next stage which is war then China has to do it on the ground . With combined strength of SCS or stand alone capacities of Japs India Pacific fleet Aussies Vietnam Singapore Taiwan can inflict more damage to china than what China can do to them .

Slowing down economy of China will be another reason to start a war. So the communist party can getaway by using was as a reason for economic slowdown. But it will be a wrong move . It will further cripple your economy . And so increase unrest with in your country against the communist. At the times of War most of your western provinces will go against your establishment. Trying their luck for fresh freedom struggle.

So yes I belive this way of Chinese will back fire them . Wrong and Bad foresight. Lots of immaturity

Without the US, all of you are no match for us. Let be honest and serious here, can we, my friend? LOL India is a supa powa but I am afraid Indian is having a hard time building enough toilet for their people, let alone wanting to engage in a war with us.

Like I said, if our enemy fire the first shot, consider them finish. Now if you got nothing reasonable to say, it is best to keep your mouth shut because your rambling and threaten our existence will do no good. LOL

 

[Aepsilons]

Lol, nonsensical article. Why on earth are we pushing for the Maritime Silk Road project AND planning for war at the same time?

It is written by policy analysts that would want to see greater destabilization in East Asia. Sans sensationalist journalism, one knows how hard both Japan and China are trying to maintain balance and harmony in East Asia , despite tense political and geostrategic constraints.

 

[Carlosa]

Very well thought out post and strategic, i might add. If I were to discern the CPC's visage in their 9 dash claim it would be this, amigo, they are implementing a Policy of Continuity. The CPC claims legitimacy by stating that they are the successor of the ROC's Kuomintang , which also claims almost all of the SCS. The fact that the Kuomintang claims the same region , thus necessitates the CPC's extension of its own shelf and parallels the Kuomintang's claim, if it truly wants to emphasize itself being the successor of the ROC. It is no longer an issue of diplomacy, but, rather, an issue of the part's legitimacy. If the CPC reneges on its claim , it would be seen as weak, unable to maintain Chinese territory, and thus any fringe groups in China would claim that the CPC no longer holds the mandate to rule since it would be willing to renege any inch of Chinese territory. In this case, one has to see that the CPC is holding back the winds of the ultranatinoalism and the ultranationalists in China who would risk open war. One has to appreciate the internal politics and dynamics of the cadres that make up the Party, especially the Committee of the CPC, such as Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan, Zhang Gaoli,-- who themselves represent a host from the CPC's base.

Objectively, the CPC cannot part even an inch of its claim. It is not an issue of diplomatic intercommensurability, but is an existential issue. It is not an issue of CPC not wanting to negotiate, the CPC cannot do it. So what can we expect? There is a political solution to this: To observe the notion of Modus Vivendi -- or in English, "Agree to Disagree".

Modus Vivendi can work, so long as all sides can acquiesce to a Binding Declaration of Code of Conduct.

I understand what you are saying, but then, lets call things for what they are and no need for excuses that can't hold any water with anybody that has a half way functional brain.

China has a number of reasons for what they are doing and they know very well what those reasons are. The reasoning that you explained is probably the main one, I know there are also military reasons of geostrategic needs, the need to militarily secure their regional waters, to try to breakout from the first island chain, etc, etc.

When powers rise they start to think in strategic terms and try to prevent any possible risks like, oh I want to secure my oil lines, so I need to have a presence in the Indian Ocean and I need to secure this and that, etc. I have to push the US navy out from the first island chain. There are so many scenarios that you can come up with.

And you know, its all fine, that's what big powers usually do and china is following that, but again, I think China has more to gain by not following that route and pushing others to contain them. They say they don't want to be contained, but they create the reasons by which others feel that they have to contain china.

On the other hand, if china were to not follow that route, others would be hard pressed to justify a reason to contain China or to find allies that can cooperate with that. What we are seeing now, is that countries flock to US to try to contain China and everybody is rearming like crazy.

Is that making China more secured? I think not.