Why China Will Lose the War It is Planning

[xunzi]

We can sit here and guarantee you that we will not be the first one to fire the first shot. This is our promise.

 

[Carlosa]

We can sit here and guarantee you that we will not be the first one to fire the first shot. This is our promise.

Frankly, I don't think China will just start an unprovoked war as the article implies, the article is just a very hypothetical situation, but the description of the military events I thought it could be of interest for discussion.

 

[xunzi]

Frankly, I don't think China will just start an unprovoked war as the article implies, the article is just a very hypothetical situation, but the description of the military events I thought it could be of interest for discussion.

I wonder why all these hypothetical articles always point to China as the instigator for war but not Japan, Philippines, and Vietnam? Because they know, if any of these countries would to fire the first shot, they are finish.

 

[Carlosa]

I wonder why all these hypothetical articles always point to China as the instigator for war but not Japan, Philippines, and Vietnam? Because they know, if any of these countries would to fire the first shot, they are finish.

Well, china has been quite aggressive in pushing its claims in both SCS and ECS and its doing an unprecedented military build up which gives food for thought.

 

[xunzi]

Well, china has been quite aggressive in pushing its claims in both SCS and ECS and its doing an unprecedented military build up which gives food for thought.

How are we aggressive in pushing our claim? Can you explain in detail?

 

[Carlosa]

How are we aggressive in pushing our claim? Can you explain in detail?

Simple, taking over Scaraborough Shoal and blockading Second Thomas Shoal and sending ships and planes everyday to the Senkakus area. Do you see PH, VN or JP doing anything like that? Or the massive land reclamation in the islands despite the fact of a signed declaration of not changing the status quo.

If that's not aggressive pushing of claims, then I don't know what is it. And again, nobody else is doing anything remotely similar to that right?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

To say this is perhaps the single most foolish article without given the reason why might have just been the single most foolish comment I have ever see on internet

lol all you do is leave one liners and abuse your power to delete/downvote comments that disagree with you.

 

[xunzi]

Simple, taking over Scaraborough Shoal and blockading Second Thomas Shoal and sending ships and planes everyday to the Senkakus area. Do you see PH, VN or JP doing anything like that? Or the massive land reclamation in the islands despite the fact of a signed declaration of not changing the status quo.

If that's not aggressive pushing of claims, then I don't know what is it. And again, nobody else is doing anything remotely similar to that right?

Who instigated those events in the first place? It sure wasn't us!

As far as reclamation, everyone does, including your country Vietnam. We only take it to the next level because of our capability is better than everyone else. In fact, all reclamation works on islands that we already in control.

Am I right, my friend?

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

To say this is perhaps the single most foolish article without given the reason why might have just been the single most foolish comment I have ever see on internet

Here are the reasons:

1. The opening line of the article is "Chinese front Organization" is totally wrong. It is the Australia-China institute, an independent study center by the University of Technology, Sydney. Australia China Relations Institute | University of Technology, Sydney

2. Even if it were a Chinese institute, then this presumption that a survey is a good enough reason to presume that they are preparing for war is incorrect to say the least.

3. Most of the publicity of the poll was done by western media, not chinese media.

4. "Firstly, it will provide legitimacy for the regime as economic growth stalls."
The above statement presumes that Chinese economic growth is going to stall, a sentiment not shared by the World Bank, IMF, and most of the leading Economists around the world. China hasn't even reached the middle income group right now, with at least 7 years left to reach there.

Rather, a war would be perhaps the only way in which Chinese economy will actually suffer.

5. "China will approach the war “asymmetrically, as terrorists do"
This is essentially a lame effort to insult the Chinese, by comparing asymmetric warfare with terrorism. Asymmetric warfare has been as old as warfare itself.

6. "More likely they will attack US bases in the region at least as far out as Guam on the basis that the United States will be entering the war anyway and they are better off getting a surprise attack in first."

Not even the WORST crackhead in Beijing, and there are few idiots in Beijing, wants to do anything with US Bases. US can't be defeated in any forseeable future, and they know it. The worst case scenario will be that Beijing attempts to take Senkaku, even that is very unlikely.

7. "After the initial Chinese onslaught, the campaign would settle down to a blockade of shipping to China conducted beyond the reach of Chinese aircraft. China wouldn’t run out of oil because they are building a large stockpile and they could easily cut consumption down to the level of domestic production of 4 million barrels per day. But 26% of the economy is export-related and so economic activity would collapse. The effect of the blockade in the rest of the world would be a major boost to economic activity as companies tried to make good the loss of Chinese supply. "


This guy doesn't make an attempt to be even consistent. Just a few paragraph before he is assuming Chinese economic collapse, to counter which they would declare a war, but then again, he is himself hypothesizing that Chinese economy will collapse after the war. Why would they then have a war to just collapse their economy?
Also, a war with China in the region will essentially paralyze the whole of Asia Pacific, which is THE most important trading area in the world. That would have global effects.

8. "What if you don’t like the idea of the US being involved in a war with China? Well stop buying anything made in China. The US takes 17% of China’s exports and if that dried up, the Chinese economy would shrink by 4.5%. The social dislocation that would cause might be enough to topple the warhawk who is driving the Chinese aggression, President Xi Jinping. Until President Xi is gone, prepare for war."

He has already shown before that he knew nothing about economics. This statement is just the feather in his intellectually dishonest, manipulative, biased cap.


Finally, the next time don't presume anything at the outset. I didn't give reason because it seemed obvious to me. This article is brainwork of a person so immersed in his hatred that he started hallucinating scenarios as crazy as that.

 

[Aepsilons]

The original article is a wee bit sensational, don't you guys agree?

lol

 

[Carlosa]

Who instigated those events in the first place? It sure wasn't us!

As far as reclamation, everyone does, including your country Vietnam. We only take it to the next level because of our capability is better than everyone else. In fact, all reclamation works on islands that we already in control.

Am I right, my friend?

Please explain in detail how others caused you to have to create those events? I only see other reacting to your actions, at least in SCS.

There is no way to try to compare your land reclamation to what everybody else, all together have done which is almost nothing.

Come on you guys, you can't have the cake and eat it at the same time.

You can't say that you only have peaceful intentions and just care about economic prosperity and to share that prosperity with others and then at the same time make all these claims, whose reasons nobody accept (those so called historical claims, is Spain going to reclaim south America now based on that same hypothesis?), act aggressive, take over islands and reefs very far from your homeland that never had a chinese presence, but are very close to other countries, etc, etc.

Do you see any country doing landing exercises 80 km from the chinese coast?
No, but China does that on James Shoal, 80 km from Malaysia. I'm glad that Malaysia had a "special relationship" with China and was called China's little brother. Do you guys expect Malaysia to feel good about that? Do you expect that the countries in the region look at that and feel secured with China?

In my opinion China has a lot more to gain by being friendly and cooperating with others.
If the idea here is that by becoming bigger, you have to act like big powers often act, creating empires and dominating others, which is how US did as they rose throughout their history and many others, well, that's fine, you have the means to do that. but don't expect to be seen as a nice, peaceful country; the choice is all yours as to how to proceed and how you will be seen

 

[jhungary]

lol all you do is leave one liners and abuse your power to delete/downvote comments that disagree with you.

did I??

He said the article is the single most foolish article ever written, I just wondering why.

You will not get a negative rating from one liner, but you do when you personal attack someone

 

[Carlosa]

The original article is a wee bit sensational, don't you guys agree?

lol

Yes, it is a bit sensational and one heck of a hypothetical situation, I just like the military scenarios.

 

[xunzi]

Please explain in detail how others caused you to have to create those events? I only see other reacting to your actions, at least in SCS.

There is no way to try to compare your land reclamation to what everybody else, all together have done which is almost nothing.

Come on you guys, you can't have the cake and eat it at the same time.

You can't say that you only have peaceful intentions and just care about economic prosperity and to share that prosperity with others and then at the same make all these claims, whose reasons nobody accept (those so called historical claims, is Spain going to reclaim south America now based on that same hypothesis?), act aggressive, take over islands and reefs very far from your homeland that never had a chinese presence, but are very close to other countries, etc, etc.

Do you see any country doing landing exercises 80 km from the chinese coast?
No, but China does that on James Shoal, 80 km from Malaysia. I'm glad that Malaysia had a "special relationship" with China and was called China's little brother. Do you guys expect Malaysia to feel good about that? Do you expect that the countries in the region look at that and feel secure with China?

In my opinion China has a lot more to gain but being friendly and cooperating with others.
If the idea here is that by becoming bigger, you have to act like big powers often act, creating empires and dominating others, which is how US did as they rose throughout their history and many others, well, that's fine, you have the means to do that. but don't expect to be seen as a nice, peaceful country; the choice is all yours as to how to proceed and how you will be seen

I will give you our position.

In the Decoration of Conduct, we agree with all claimants share not change the status quo by conducting arrest on fishermen. The Philippines instigated this event by trying to change the status quo and arresting our fisherman first. I believe the Philippines feeling confidence, thank to US pivot to Asia annoucement that they want to instigate a change in status quo. Little do they know, we responded quickly and the US showed no sign of aiding them. This is their biggest mistake being overconfidence.

Same thing happen to Japan. In 1970s, we both agreed to not to change the status quo. Yet it was Japan that instigated this event by nationalizing a dispute. Tell me, why blame on us?

STOP blaming us for everything. We said many times that we want to solve this peacefully in BILATERAL NEGOTIATION but these claimants want to internationalize them and make this into a multilateral negotiation. We said no. Non-party should NOT have any said in settlement.

Reclamation works had always been done by all claimants. We are, in fact, the last to do it. Like I said, we only expand and make our control territory more "livable".

 

[Ind4Ever]

March 12, 2015
Why China Will Lose the War It is Planning
By David Archibald

Articles: Why China Will Lose the War It is Planning

How do we know the war is coming in the first place? Because the advertising for it is out. Amongst plenty of other evidence, one Chinese front organisation conducted a poll on Australian attitudes to the ANZUS treaty and a Chinese attack on Japan. Why would they conduct such a poll unless they are going to attack Japan? Not that they were interested in the results as such. They just wanted to be able to publicize the poll in order to try to keep Australia on the sidelines of their war.

The war will have two functions for China. Firstly, it will provide legitimacy for the regime as economic growth stalls. Secondly, the Chinese will have pride in humiliating their neighbouring countries, and the United States, by defeating them in battle and creating no-go zones in the oceans which other countries won’t be able to enter without Chinese permission. The war will have nothing to do with oil and gas resources under the seabed and securing sea-lanes. The Chinese have never offered those excuses for their behavior themselves. The excuses are the creation of Western pundits for something that otherwise is stupid, destructive, and primitive.

Some have seen this war coming well in advance. In 2005, Robert Kaplan wrote an article entitled How We Would Fight China. In it he notes that China will approach the war “asymmetrically, as terrorists do. In Iraq the insurgents have shown us the low end of asymmetry, with car bombs. But the Chinese are poised to show us the high end of the art.”

To win the war, China has to seize territory and then hold it against the US/Japanese counterattack. There will be two main theatres of operation -- the Senkaku and Yaeyama island chains in the East China Sea and the Paracel and Spratly Islands south of Hainan Island in the South China Sea. In the East China Sea, China claims the uninhabited Senkaku Islands and has made noises about being the rightful owners of the Ryuku and Yaeyama Island Chains. This part of the world is complicated for China in that there are US bases on Okinawa in the Ryukus.

They could leave the US bases out of their attack in the expectation that President Obama will renege on his commitment to come to Japan’s aid if China attempts to seize the Senkaku Islands. More likely they will attack US bases in the region at least as far out as Guam on the basis that the United States will be entering the war anyway and they are better off getting a surprise attack in first. Also, they can’t be number one on the planet until they have defeated the United States. So their pride will be a big part of it.

If China is going to seize the Senkaku Islands, it would take only a little bit more effort, morally and militarily, to seize the Yaeyama Islands at the same time. Part of the preparations for this operation includes building the Shuimen airbase on a ridge on the mainland at 26° 56’ N, 120° 05’ E. More recently an expeditionary base for helicopters is under construction in the Nanji Islands at 27° 27’ N, 121° 04’ E. China has been conditioning the Japanese by having their fishing vessels run incursions into Japanese territory with each incursion lasting two hours. In late 2014, the fishing transgressions extended to the Osagawa Islands further east.

In the East China Sea, China is likely to start the war off with helicopters landing troops on the Senkaku and Yaeyama Islands quickly followed by a swarm of coast guard and commercial vessels to dilute the targeting of the naval vessels among them. They may also use fishing vessels to land Special Forces further east in the Osagawa Islands. These troops would be used sacrificially to dilute the response to the main thrust. That would be why China is conditioning Japan to get used to fishing vessels making incursions in the Osagawas. China would also be attacking US and Japanese bases with intermediate range ballistic missiles -- everything that would throw the Japanese off balance and make the problem of the Chinese attack seem overwhelming.

The US Marines are confident that they could recapture the Senkaku Islands once control of the sea and air was assured. Japanese and US forces would have no desire to set foot on Chinese territory. After the initial Chinese onslaught, the campaign would settle down to a blockade of shipping to China conducted beyond the reach of Chinese aircraft. China wouldn’t run out of oil because they are building a large stockpile and they could easily cut consumption down to the level of domestic production of 4 million barrels per day. But 26% of the economy is export-related and so economic activity would collapse. The effect of the blockade in the rest of the world would be a major boost to economic activity as companies tried to make good the loss of Chinese supply.

In the South China Sea, China would declare an Air Defence Identification Zone and enforce it using the airbase they are currently building on Fiery Cross Reef. They may attempt to seize other countries’ bases in the Spratleys or they might just sink their ships and starve them out. The problem for China is that the South China Sea is a natural kill box for Chinese shipping. On the western side, Vietnam has upgraded its radars (with assistance from the French company Thales) and has an inventory of about 500 anti-ship missiles. Singapore’s air force is likely to assist Vietnam and stage through Cam Ranh Bay with their 36 F-15s.

On the eastern side, the US has plenty of basing opportunities in the Philippines. Once the airfield on Fiery Cross Reef was degraded, Chinese shipping would have to rely upon air cover coming from bases 1,000 km to the northwest. Eventually the Chinese air defences will be worn down and the Chinese ships will be defenseless. Then will come bombardment of the bases they have built and it will be all over. The US Marines now have a base at Oyster Bay on the western side of Palawan Island in the Philippines in preparation for this battle. If the Chinese are particularly intractable, then the US might go on to capture Woody Island in the Paracel Group. That will be a lot tougher in that it is only 300 km from Hainan Island and the depth of Chinese basing behind it on the mainland.

What if you don’t like the idea of the US being involved in a war with China? Well stop buying anything made in China. The US takes 17% of China’s exports and if that dried up, the Chinese economy would shrink by 4.5%. The social dislocation that would cause might be enough to topple the warhawk who is driving the Chinese aggression, President Xi Jinping. Until President Xi is gone, prepare for war.

David Archibald, a visiting fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C., is the author of Twilight of Abundance (Regnery, 2014)

Well thought article . And if China thinks that after starting a war like capturing islands later it would come to some sort of compromise if China decided to stop the war .well its not gonna happen. With ever growing Chinese naval fleet is better to go after PLAN as soon as possible .

And one more interesting analysis and we'll thought too. When he talked about why China showing off its aggressive posture towards SCS , US Japan India is not about oil or expanding its territory but it's more to do with Inferiority complex of Chinese they have developed for many centuries . So they have bully their small or weak neighbours just to feel that moment and to improve its people's confidence. Like warm bear hug !

It's more evident in their goals like putting a man into space or having AC . Even though it's has no advantages when you are surrounded by folks who already have Chinese fleets on their radars. Going East will also be heavy challenged by superior USN . So this where IOR comes into the game. With few strings of navy bases and soft power India China can dominate the region . It's also can be used as reserve during war with SCS countries . US will have no other choice to spread it's legs all over the region instead of concentrating on particular region. I do belive this is already in the minds of Americans that's the reason they are pushing for having their atleast 1/2 CBG in the IOR. But cleverly they have roped in India as there back up . By giving IN the ability to access their resonance imaging systems and real time analysis of ship moments will provide India the much needed time to counter Chinese .

Greet game been played by both sides . China will not go in all alone. For instance there are very high possibility of Pakistan starting another war but this time with full support of Chinese . Just to keep Indian Navy and Army busy .

But it might be the end of Chinese domination for the next few decades if they want to start a war. US and Nato are known for their successful strategy to recapture the territories. May take some time but with its allies and high tech defence technology they can do it .

Wonder what Russians will be doing in this situation ?