Who will be the winner in by-polls NA246

[notorious_eagle]

Sympathy Factor that MQM gained within last one Month

Than the people giving them sympathy are stupid. The most lethal terrorist killers were caught in MQM's Office, people who have killed innocents for their own profit. I hardly find that anything to sympathize with.

and Establishment's Agents Hype that PTI gained has been working in

What Establishment? The only thing the Army wants is to end terrorism and crime. If MQM engages in criminal activities and thinks it is above the law like before, it is sadly mistaken. Also, MQM should be the last party to cry foul with Establishment as it is the product of the Establishment.

MQM's Favor now and this was the most Stupid move from Imran Khan to contest the Elections because if he Lose this one he lose Karachi once in for all as PTI is riding on very Weak Foundation which can Collapse quite Easily because PTI doesnt Represent any SENTIMENTS in Karachi while JI and MQM represents lots of Sentiments in Karachi.

It was an amazing move by IK, it does not matter whether he wins or looses he can always claim a moral victory. MQM on the other hand does not only has to win, it has to win big against both JI and PTI. It at-least needs to score 100K+ votes to save face, after all this is their back yard.

IK on the other hand can go back and claim that he challenged the MQM and was not intimidated by them. He will earn browny points for being brave in Punjab which is the real prize, Karachi itself is not that important electorally as it only contains a dozen seats. In the future, MQM won't be able to use its classic tactic of fear and intimidation to rig the future elections. PTI should win at-least 4-5 seats in the next election from other constituencies which have bore the brunt of MQM's terrorist activities. From what i understood, people of NA246 have largely been spared of MQM's Target Killings and Bhatta Khori, this is why MQM is so popular there. But after this by election, gone are the days when MQM could rig the elections in their favour with Fear and Intimidation.

That is why both JI and MQM are RESILIENT Parties and are able to Mobilize and retain their Support base in very Bad situations as well. Karachi is not the city which Parties like PTI can Handle so they are just a temporary Phenomenon which Appear with Hype and Fade away with the same Hype as well.

It does not look like it. PTI has consolidated its gains and has quite the fan following in Karachi. Their Jalsa's have been huge, their supporters have refused to get intimidated by MQM Goons. As the fear factor is gone, people are not afraid to challenge the MQM and go vote for other parties. One of the reasons why MQM has been so successful in Karachi is because of the fear factor, MQM's ability to not forget and settle scores with its opponents. The best case example would be killing all the Police Officers that were involved in the Operation against them in the 90's. That fear factor is gone due to Rangers, it will be hard for MQM to maintain its chokehold on the City now.

The Quick Approach doesnt work in Karachi and PTI need to understand that and need to work to promote Interactions of Supporters and Leaders of the parties at all times if they want some share of a City.

I agree, but i have a hard time believing the people of Karachi as a whole love MQM. It simply does not make any sense. I doubt it if small, medium and large scale entrepreneurs like giving Bhatta to MQM. If they don't pay up, they are as good as dead. E.g Baldia Town.

The confessions of Saulat Mirza are bone chilling. Other criminals associated with MQM, i doubt it if the people of Karachi will accept these criminal activities. Sure MQM gets work done, but it also demands informal taxes and kills people who don't pay them. The Great Leader sitting in London but claims to be a Son of the Soil. Not only does he sound psychotic, he just spills out complete gibberish. He is on the way to jail very soon and Rangers are putting a squeeze on MQM's criminal activities. Now that is hardly a party one wants to envy, it is at best a Political Mafia.

 

[Gazi]

Than the people giving them sympathy are stupid. The most lethal terrorist killers were caught in MQM's Office, people who have killed innocents for their own profit. I hardly find that anything to sympathize with.

MQM was in the past Accused of Jinnahpur which were Later Taken Back by same people who Accused them so its not the first time MQM have been accused for something and Karachiite are also aware of Media Manipulation in the quest for more Ratings they could earn by selling their Analysis Urban Elite Viewers which PTI has in large number in Pakistan.

What Establishment? The only thing the Army wants is to end terrorism and crime. If MQM engages in criminal activities and thinks it is above the law like before, it is sadly mistaken. Also, MQM should be the last party to cry foul with Establishment as it is the product of the Establishment.

If the whole thing was Confined to Arresting Criminals everyone would have Supported that but then comes Saulat Mirza Revelation Hours before Execution of Death Penalty and then revealing so many Connections to MQM all of a sudden that people might have never heard of to feed Media with more content to discuss them against MQM clearly Favoring PTI and Completely Ignoring JI. All these things have given wrong message that its one sided Action and only MQM is the Target rather then Across the Board and that is something which is creating the strong sentiments in Karachi.

It was an amazing move by IK, it does not matter whether he wins or looses he can always claim a moral victory. MQM on the other hand does not only has to win, it has to win big against both JI and PTI. It at-least needs to score 100K+ votes to save face, after all this is their back yard.

IK can Score lots of BROWNY point in Punjab by selling Anti MQM RHETORIC to Clueless Supporters who doesnt even know K for Karachi but Karachiite wont buy them Further then this Election and since he have already used all his PTI Leadership in the Process so he cant use those Canon again and expect any Success from Karachi next time. As for Jalsa then most of the Attendance were not even Voters of NA 246 so what Imran Khan has tried to show is his TOTAL Karachi support excluding MQM Back Channel Support which Influenced Huge PTI Karachi Gatherings in the past and by looking at that I can safely say the response was quite DISAPPOINTING for a party that has Eyes set for Karachi.

IK on the other hand can go back and claim that he challenged the MQM and was not intimidated by them. He will earn browny points for being brave in Punjab which is the real prize, Karachi itself is not that important electorally as it only contains a dozen seats. In the future, MQM won't be able to use its classic tactic of fear and intimidation to rig the future elections. PTI should win at-least 4-5 seats in the next election from other constituencies which have bore the brunt of MQM's terrorist activities. From what i understood, people of NA246 have largely been spared of MQM's Target Killings and Bhatta Khori, this is why MQM is so popular there. But after this by election, gone are the days when MQM could rig the elections in their favour with Fear and Intimidation.

Even he knows along with his Leadership that this is not even CLOSE to something called CHALLENGE its rather Face saving Exercise to prevent Criticism against U-Turn of Returning to Parliament which he himself use to call Illegal. MQM, JI and ESPECIALLY PMLN would try to limit PTI to its Lowest and give them Third Position which would BACKFIRE the whole PTI Claim of Liberating Karachi and bring Criticism Back into PTI's Court rather. Now I think JI would try its level best to come Second and PROVE PTI that they should have Step Down in favor of JI so that they could give MQM a competition and started QUESTIONING the whole MOTIVE of Contesting that Bi Election and may be PMLN and others would Join the criticism as well turning PTI Position DEFENSIVE in the process. I think PTI is to AMATEUR to Understand the Politics here and PMLN has also done its side by using Word like "Kala Kaluta" refering to MQM giving them Full opportunity to Play Ethnic Card to drag more people in their Favor from this constituency at least.

It does not look like it. PTI has consolidated its gains and has quite the fan following in Karachi. Their Jalsa's have been huge, their supporters have refused to get intimidated by MQM Goons. As the fear factor is gone, people are not afraid to challenge the MQM and go vote for other parties. One of the reasons why MQM has been so successful in Karachi is because of the fear factor, MQM's ability to not forget and settle scores with its opponents. The best case example would be killing all the Police Officers that were involved in the Operation against them in the 90's. That fear factor is gone due to Rangers, it will be hard for MQM to maintain its chokehold on the City now.

All the PTI Gains are TEMPORARY and in Actual sense PTI has Proved to be so in effective to even Manage a DECENT PUBLIC GATHERING in Karachi. MQM and JI on the other hand always had Emotional Attachments with their Supporters that is why MQM is still considered Strong despite of all Rangers Raids and Media Trial while JI is still maintaining large support Base despite of not being able to become a serious Challenge to MQM in last 30 years while PTI would get some more Votes at one time while lose on the other Depending on how they are running the campaign. Their were 4 Bi Elections happened in Karachi within 2013 till 2015 and in all of them PTI has lost to MQM by huge Margin so their Strength is only Present in their CREATED HYPES rather then SENTIMENTS. Azizabad doesnt have anything called Fear Factor rather its Lyari, SITE Area, Banarus, Manghopir, Ittehad Town and other areas where actual Fear Factor Exist and Imran Khan would never even DARE to enter those areas even if he is asked to pay Millions of Dollars for that Visit. As for 1990s Police Officers then they did lot of Extra Judicial Killing of MQM and many Innocent Urdu Speakers as well so in the end they got it coming on their heads so if MQM wasnt Involved then some crook Head from Innocent Family Member of a person Killed Extra Judicially would have done the job as well so they played with Fire and condemned their Fate to be burned with it one way or the other.

I agree, but i have a hard time believing the people of Karachi as a whole love MQM. It simply does not make any sense. I doubt it if small, medium and large scale entrepreneurs like giving Bhatta to MQM. If they don't pay up, they are as good as dead. E.g Baldia Town.

The confessions of Saulat Mirza are bone chilling. Other criminals associated with MQM, i doubt it if the people of Karachi will accept these criminal activities. Sure MQM gets work done, but it also demands informal taxes and kills people who don't pay them. The Great Leader sitting in London but claims to be a Son of the Soil. Not only does he sound psychotic, he just spills out complete gibberish. He is on the way to jail very soon and Rangers are putting a squeeze on MQM's criminal activities. Now that is hardly a party one wants to envy, it is at best a Political Mafia.

Karachi is well known for being Anti Establishment City which has never supported anyone who had been Introduced by Establishment in the past right from Fatima JInnah in 1965. Karachiite are Enlightened enough to get an idea of what is actually Cooking inside and once they get the clue they started resisting the Influence of it as well like PTI is seen as Establishment's Lap dog throughout this Constituency like MQM Haqiqi use to be and JI is considered Outdated trash that doesnt need to be recycled so no serious Threats to MQM in this Election and as for all those Saulat Mirzas and other stuff then let me tell you that these kind of Things have Happened in the Past so people have ADEQUATE Experience with Dealing with situations like that.

MQM Work as an ORGANIZATION rather then as Individual or Electable of Influential and that is what lend them Strength. People who doesnt even support Altaf Hussain Supports MQM due to its Well Structured and Well Maintained Organization that has Presented good People within its Rank rather then Trusting some Electable to earn a seat like what PTI did in 2013 Elections. This is something that Appeals people as well and then their Liberal and Anti Sectarian Stance and Initiatives have also proved to be healthy while their Anti Taliban and Anti Lal Masjid Stance in the past has also being keeping them Alive.

 

[Peaceful Civilian]

In 2002 there was Prevalent Factor of MQM Haqiqi in Liaqatabad and other areas of NA 246. Karachi like rest of Pakistan was not Political ACTIVE like today and also Unity of Religious Parties along with Anti USA and Pro Afghan Taliban sentiments were the reason for low votes of MQM.

Sane Explanation. Thanks.... but today,even on daily bases, Rangers and police are arresting culprits/Accused criminals from Nine zero according to media news... How i count 1 Lac 40k votes of Nabeel gapool even he said he was surprised about the number. So, i still have doubt about popularity of MQM in NA 246. No clear situation, Many ambiguity still exists about this constituency. Many things will get clear after this election. Let hope for free ,fair and Peaceful election .

 

[Patriots]

1. MQM 3344 Vote
2. Jamat e Islami 907 Vote
3. PTI 825 Vote

 

[Patriots]

 

[Jzaib]

even with mqm terrorism . with being PTI being allowed in area . Good show PTI . No voter could openly said they can vote for PTI . It amazing that PTI retained all the votes

 

[khawaja07]

even with mqm terrorism . with being PTI being allowed in area . Good show PTI . No voter could openly said they can vote for PTI . It amazing that PTI retained all the votes

Iam surprised even after JUI-F, PML-N and PPP supported JI in Karachi..they are looking to not even get 2nd place

 

[Jzaib]

Iam surprised even after JUI-F, PML-N and PPP supported JI in Karachi..they are looking to not even get 2nd place

they were selfish . but i can understand . their party is dieing and saraaj is working hard to keep it alive

 

[khawaja07]

they were selfish . but i can understand . their party is dieing and saraaj is working hard to keep it alive

Its good, they should never become a big party...votes on the basis of cast, colour, Religion or creed are a bad idea for the state

 

[Jzaib]

Its good, they should never become a big party...votes on the basis of cast, colour, Religion or creed are a bad idea for the state

it is mqm has isolated mahajirs , make them voilent , even if u catch their terrorist . they try to defend it .

 

[khawaja07]

it is mqm has isolated mahajirs , make them voilent , even if u catch their terrorist . they try to defend it .

Yea, the mohajir card aspect of MQM needs to die if they're ever to become a larger or even a national party...

 

[Patriots]

Iam surprised even after JUI-F, PML-N and PPP supported JI in Karachi..they are looking to not even get 2nd place

I was already saying that this election will determine second position between JI & PTI

 

[khawaja07]

I was already saying that this election will determine second position between JI & PTI

Guess what you said came out true after all... , congrats.

On a second note, it will be interesting what the actual margin of victory is...it will be a real eye opener if its not even remotely close to the NA-246 general elections result...

 

[Patriots]

Guess what you said came out true after all... , congrats.

On a second note, it will be interesting what the actual margin of victory is...it will be a real eye opener if its not even remotely close to the NA-246 general elections result...

Margin will be 50k to 70k ............

 

[khawaja07]

I was already saying that this election will determine second position between JI & PTI

Guess what you said became true after all... , congrats.

On a second note, it will be interesting what the actual margin of victory is...it will be a real eye opener if its not even remotely close to the NA-246 general elections result...

Margin will be 50k to 70k ............

Between 1st and 2nd place?