My vote goes to
Bangladesh. Each country has their own struggles but in my view Bangladesh will have a relatively easier time developing due to
geography.
- Access to navigable rivers and opportunities for deep sea ports.
- Radial geography (round country)
Navigable waterways
Having access to navigable rivers and waterways is the key for fast development and maintaining an economic edge overtime. The most economically vibrant regions (especially more in land ones) have access to good navigable waterways: Rhein Ruhr, London, Netherlands, Yangtze River economic region, Pearl River delta, etc. Rail and roads are expensive to build, have up keep costs and cannot move oversized loads. Under the condition of an incompetent bureaucracy or insufficient industrial capacity, maintaining and building infrastructure can become difficult thus presenting a risk to development. Having a developed network of waterways (which Bangladesh has naturally) will enable cheap transport of raw materials needed for industry and oversized industrial products otherwise not transportable by rail. Lower costs means higher returns, higher returns attracts investment.
http://www.ccmm.ca/Documents/pdf/mi...angladeshRegionalWaterwayTransportProject.pdf
There is an economy of scale effect for the shipping industry in Bangladesh. Due to ships being used in large numbers, it will promote the development of the whole supporting infrastructure (ports, dry docks) and expertise (naval education, ship building) for enabling better competitiveness in global markets in that industry. Due to low labour costs and experience it could become the next hub for outsourcing of shipbuilding.
Although other nations have access to waterways, this is a relative comparison. Bangladesh is almost entirely covered by large navigable waterways and potential to develop deep sea ports. The country being relatively small, no part of the country is too far from accessing international markets, thus able to exploit outsourcing of labour even under the conditions of poor infrastructure. This will decease the time for Bangladesh to reach its equilibrium potential.
Radial Geography
The ideal shape for an country from an economic lens is a circular shape. Radial geography promotes
centralisation of political, economic, social, and military functions. The base element of development is a point and radiates outwards as it grows. The central point concentrates specialised functions for efficiency. It is not efficient to place MRI machines and other expensive medical machines in every village hospital but if the villages are close to the centre then access to high end services can be provided. Having a circular country means the ability to concentrate resources (especially specialised resources) at one point instead of spreading it along multiple points, promoting efficiency (high utilisation rate) thus attractive to industry, helping economic growth. Bangladesh could also have more specialised services earlier than other countries at the same stage of development.
Its rivers are both a blessing and a hurdle. The rivers divide the nation limiting development in less connected regions, thus necessitating large and expensive bridges.
Geography is a blessing, it only makes work easier, ultimately it depends on the inhabitants of that geography to develop itself. Pakistan and India will have to work harder and spend more money on infrastructure to develop the same overall competitiveness of Bangladesh. This could also mean Bangladesh won't be competitive for its roads and rail network but could have a high position in developing large bridges.
Once Bangladesh has a developed internal transportation network (roads, bridges, rail) it will transform its dense population into a blessing for logistics. A dense circular nation means the number of customers within a radius is maximised, attracting capital creating larger and more efficient operations. In theory its possible within our current technological limit to transform Bangladesh into a mega city centred around Dhaka with a travel time of less than 1 hour from periphery to centre.