WHEN CHINA BECOMES NO.1, WHAT HAPPENS THEN?

[Cossack25A1]

Don't also forget the issue of Uighyur nationalism, that is a major issue for Chinese patriots as the notion of an East Turkestan is antithetical to Chinese national solidarity. China will put down any sort of rebellious movement , and she shall do so mercilessly. In fact if Japan was in China's position, we would do the same as well. National preservation trumps extranational pacts and alliance systems.

The problem is that, specifically in this forum is that when discussions about China's internal affairs such as the Uyghurs, certain members will say that we should not meddle with their own affairs, yet when similar issues are raised involving other countries, the said certain people will say that that country is leaded by a murderous government.

Put it in global perspective, China will react to any criticism about their local policies, just like America of today.

But no war will break out.

Also, modernizing someone's armed forces does not equate to going to war path, sadly certain people view our modernization of the military as "going to a war path".

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

The stars will go dark, the sky will burn and the ground will tremble.

At least, that's what some people would have you believe.

 

[TaiShang]

So I dont think the question is if China will behave, but rather if the US will behave if China becomes #1. Will the US use military options (which I doubt) or more economic options and perhaps try to weaken China from the inside?

That's a good observation. The big question is whether the US will be able to accommodate China, not whether China can live with the powerful US. Because, theoretically, it is the status quo power that would be challenged since the organic growth of China is by default a challenge to the existing world order. China cannot rise without disturbing the existing global arrangements.

Secondly and more important. The USA is a great country because its a melting pot of different cultures. There are blacks, whites, Asians , Hispanics etc etc. And this is the reason the USA cant claim to be racial superior to any other country.

The US is a salad bowl, at best, not a melting pot. I would say Turkey is a more successful melting pot than the US has ever been. The US is a salad bowl of shared interest among various classes divided across racial and class lines. At the elite level, class lines are stronger than racial lines. At the common level, racial lines are more important than class lines. This is, in my opinion, the weakness of the US. What keeps it together is the enormous wealth which was made possible through some accidents of history. But, as history corrects itself, the US experience will more and more show its not so pretty sides.

One thing is for sure, the rise of China is bad for Russia. Thats why the Russians are afraid that one day, China will dominate the Russian far east.

That's exactly opposite to what we think and have been doing. We are in the process of ever deepening relations and consider the US-Russia break off as a strategic blessing. Probably no other two leaders met as often as Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin in the past two years. The number of deals (and the amount) is historic. We have embarked on joint military programs. We are holding naval exercises that are largest in our history. We cooperate under the SCO, AIIB, ECC etc. I do not see two powers suspicious of each other doing all of these.

Look at the desperate Turkish trying to spread their nonsense and try to sow discord between Russian and Chinese. Russia has seen enough of double-headed snake US and they know China is better than US.
US is a true imperialist countries and has no regard of other countries law and culture. From vietnam war to Gulf war II. US soldier and federal government continue to exhibit the kind of barbarian behavior of abuse local citizens and atrocities of rape and murder becos in their eyes, they always think they are superior than the rest.

China has a policy of non interference and they do not impose their own will in other countries politic or think their system is superior and insist others countries must only follow their way.

That's very true. There is a concerted effort in the Western media to undermine and underestimate China-Russia strategic partnership. This shows the level of concern and proves that we are on the right track.

On the rhetorical question of being number one, I know Kishore Mahbubabi is a strong Pan-Asianist and has always kept a positive attitude toward East Asian development course. At times he comes up with this sort of flame-baiting titles. Not bad. But it does not really reflect China's own conceptualization of the world. Being Number One is just one of the end results of achieving national rejuvenation. But you do not simply fix your eyes to crack down numbers; there is quality aspects of development as well as quantity.

Anyways, congratulations on your national success bro...definitely something every nation wishes they could have and could attain. Its part of the strengths of the Chinese Nation, and the Chinese people.

Japan has always been a role model in China's developmentalist policies; therefore, I consider China to be lucky. I wish we had, in post WWII more secular neighbors like Japan and Korea to do business and prosper.

One thing I admire about the Chinese foreign policy is their non-interventionist mandate. This culture of 'boots on the ground' is not something they readily do unless China is attacked. Other than that , they utilize economic diplomacy as an agent to propagate their national interests.

I suppose economic diplomacy is a tool for Chinese foreign policy, whereas the United States utilizes her shear military might as political measure. That is the dichotomy between Chinese and American foreign policy mechanisms.

In that aspect I suppose having a multipolar world may not necessarily be a bad thing , as it allows the advances the national priorities without having to be too wary on abstractist political ideologies and notions of maintenance of a supposed world / global order.

Very well said!

Whit a rising Chinese power, its most likely that they will abandon their non-interventionist policy in the future. The USA where once also non-interventionist, but with rising power more and more responsibilities will come. And more interests to safeguard.

The US was isolationist, not non-interventionist. China is not isolationist, but non-interventionist. I guess this line of policy can be maintained -- China is already the largest trader in the world but all is fine except some hurdles here and there. The problems can be micromanaged without resorting to briging democracy to Iraq.

That is the tactical scenario if the Chinese were to become the unmitigated sole military super power in the position of the United States. But that won't be the case since the Chinese have a multidimensional national sovereign complex, with the core emphasis being national and demographic development, particularly heavy industry, and agricultural revolution, bolstered by overseas national development programs (Africa, Latin America, South East Asia, South Asia and to an extent even Europe). Chinese military is , in her own right, a force to be reckoned with, but they do not have overarching policies nor are they even expanded upon on an overseas control paradigm, rather, they are mostly mobilized and stationed in home. The Chinese don't even have an advanced foreign military base the likes the United States has deployed in Diego Garcia, Japan, Korea, Germany, UK, Guam, the Pacific, Italy, et al.

Coupled with the current eco-political platforms such as the Chinese-led RCEP, SCO, and their AIIB, the Chinese are keen to share the burden of responsibility with their partners. Their strength is economic-based political security. Not necessarily purely militaristic jingoism.

THAT said, China understands that her environment is rife with competition with the rise of a growing and resurgent India, the rise of Russian military power, as well as the resurgence of Japan , having to deal with the growth of the AEC (Asean Economic Community and Asean integration process) , as well as having to deal with the corroborated strength of the United States-led NATO alliance and the United States military complex as well as American-led political and economic alliances , China will be a leader in a multipolar world, not necessary THE leader. And i think China has resigned herself to accepting that notion as China is one of the proponents of a MULTI-polar world and against the Western-led global order.


Regards.

Precisely, please read my post #33, bro.

This post deserves to be published in full length at a full academic journal. Seriously @Nihonjin1051 ??!!

 

[beijingwalker]

CrossTalk: When China Rules

 

[Sasquatch]

China needs to focus on 6 things regardless when it surpasses the US economy.

1. Economy
2. Science & Technology
3. Military
4. Education
5. Corruption
6. Core interests ( Taiwan, SCS, ESC)

It will be pretty much the same for China but with more economic and military perks, we should be cautious on how we use both these perks to our advantage.

 

[Indos]

China is a rather rational nation. It doesnt act emotional on big issues. But one day will come, when it has the power to intervene and when it has benefits to it.

.

Some time people in here always said that international politics is determined by national interest, and not moral. I believe one thing that make USA become superpower is because they do have some moral ground and ready to sacrifice his own interest for the sake of human kind. This is also why Roman empire and Muslim empire can do the same before. For example, Saladin troops conduct in war become the modern rule of war conduct in this modern world. Any nation with power who is just fueled by self interest will likely to be destroyed like Hitler and old Japanese empire.

The help USA given to Berlin (Germany) for 1 year under USSR blockade is an example of it. For 24 hours in almost 1 year until USSR stop the blockade, USA keep sending food and medicine for Berlin with potential to have a war with USSR ( in a situation where USA economy is also in huge damage due to war).

And if the current superpower starts to mess around they will likely lose the power as well, thats why I always believe that God has a play on it.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Berlin Blockade (24 June 1948 – 12 May 1949) was one of the first major international crises of the Cold War. During the multinational occupation of post–World War II Germany, the Soviet Union blocked the Western Allies' railway, road, and canal access to the sectors of Berlin under Western control. The Soviets offered to drop the blockade if the Western Allies withdrew the newly introduced Deutsch mark from West Berlin.

In response, the Western Allies organized the Berlin airlift to carry supplies to the people of West Berlin, a difficult feat given the city's population.[1][2] Aircrews from the United States Air Force, the British Royal Air Force, the Royal Canadian Air Force, the Royal Australian Air Force, the Royal New Zealand Air Force, and the South African Air Force[3]:338 flew over 200,000 flights in one year, providing to the West Berliners up to 8,893 tons of necessities each day, such as fuel and food.[4] The Soviets did not disrupt the airlift for fear this might lead to open conflict.[5]

By the spring of 1949, the airlift was clearly succeeding, and by April it was delivering more cargo than had previously been transported into the city by rail. On 12 May 1949, the USSR lifted the blockade of West Berlin. The Berlin Blockade served to highlight the competing ideological and economic visions for postwar Europe.

Berlin Blockade - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Tiqiu]

Truly this is part of the Confucian economic prudence nature of the Chinese people! The trick bro is save , save, and spend whenever you want without having to buy in credit. Reminds me of my Chinese friends here in the 'states who are able to buy very pricey gadgets in cash. Cash. I'm not talking about groceries or a small hand bag or gamer controller like that, i'm talking about a $250,000 home (4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom) --- in cash. That's what i admire about you Chinese --- may look simple, but Mama makes bank, LOL!

Anyways, congratulations on your national success bro...definitely something every nation wishes they could have and could attain. Its part of the strengths of the Chinese Nation, and the Chinese people.

Impressive!

Sometimes I really think you are a Chinese, LOL.
Come to Australia, then you will be more amazed. Here most Chinese people I know of own 3 plus properties in big cities.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

Russia already knows that there is no stopping china and china will move ahead and Russia will not be able to catch it---and I will tell you that russia has already accepted that position.

They are being realistic---they are going to attach their fortunes with china and go for the ride. There is no issue of conflict between these two nations---.

China has a population problem and its population will move into neighboring russia but it will stay as russia----.

After the loss of its major ally India---russia does not have much to fall back on---it will accept china as a leading partner---and life will move along fine for them.

 

[Dungeness]

Nothing is going to happen. Chinese will still be like business as usual, Chinese government will still be mumbling "per capital.....developing country.....". Chinese are not going to snob around and tell everybody about this "superpower" thingy. A couple years ago, when Chinese GDP in terms of PPP became No 1 in the world, Chinese media barely mentioned it, and nobody in China even bother to raise eyebrows.

By 2049, China should be a moderately developed country, and there should be no poverty in China, and she is strong enough to protect her core national interests. That is all I care about.

 

[Ragnar]

Hi,

US-- The Great Satan-- will get badly slapped. Next target--Yuuzhan Vong and Klingons..

 

[nang2]

Some time people in here always said that international politics is determined by national interest, and not moral. I believe one thing that make USA become superpower is because they do have some moral ground and ready to sacrifice his own interest for the sake of human kind. This is also why Roman empire and Muslim empire can do the same before. For example, Saladin troops conduct in war become the modern rule of war conduct in this modern world. Any nation with power who is just fueled by self interest will likely to be destroyed like Hitler and old Japanese empire.

The help USA given to Berlin (Germany) for 1 year under USSR blockade is an example of it. For 24 hours in almost 1 year until USSR stop the blockade, USA keep sending food and medicine for Berlin with potential to have a war with USSR ( in a situation where USA economy is also in huge damage due to war).

And if the current superpower starts to mess around they will likely lose the power as well, thats why I always believe that God has a play on it.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Berlin Blockade (24 June 1948 – 12 May 1949) was one of the first major international crises of the Cold War. During the multinational occupation of post–World War II Germany, the Soviet Union blocked the Western Allies' railway, road, and canal access to the sectors of Berlin under Western control. The Soviets offered to drop the blockade if the Western Allies withdrew the newly introduced Deutsch mark from West Berlin.

In response, the Western Allies organized the Berlin airlift to carry supplies to the people of West Berlin, a difficult feat given the city's population.[1][2] Aircrews from the United States Air Force, the British Royal Air Force, the Royal Canadian Air Force, the Royal Australian Air Force, the Royal New Zealand Air Force, and the South African Air Force[3]:338 flew over 200,000 flights in one year, providing to the West Berliners up to 8,893 tons of necessities each day, such as fuel and food.[4] The Soviets did not disrupt the airlift for fear this might lead to open conflict.[5]

By the spring of 1949, the airlift was clearly succeeding, and by April it was delivering more cargo than had previously been transported into the city by rail. On 12 May 1949, the USSR lifted the blockade of West Berlin. The Berlin Blockade served to highlight the competing ideological and economic visions for postwar Europe.

Berlin Blockade - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

What makes you think the case of Berlin Blockade was a sacrifice of US interests?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Some time people in here always said that international politics is determined by national interest, and not moral. I believe one thing that make USA become superpower is because they do have some moral ground and ready to sacrifice his own interest for the sake of human kind. This is also why Roman empire and Muslim empire can do the same before.

Romans had no morals lol. They were very big on the "overwhelming brutality" thing.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Romans had no morals lol. They were very big on the "overwhelming brutality" thing.

Crucifixion being the obvious example here.

Also they didn't really consider barbarians to be humans. Similar to how Americans used to think that Native Americans were subhumans, specifically "savages" and used to cut off their scalp and scrotum to make tobacco pouches.

So I don't think morality really comes into play. Geopolitics is all about relative power.

 

[Indos]

What makes you think the case of Berlin Blockade was a sacrifice of US interests?

@FairAndUnbiased

I do believe that the reason of why a nation become superpower is their distinctive moral ground and their ability to create stability to the world.

Like Roman empire which give law and order to the world and create stability in Europe. Roman people itself is from Central Asian people based on history. I dont talk whole Roman empire period. It is always much much better than Barbarian German who become The West Today at that time.

That is also similar reason of why USA becomes like Today, its power brings more benefit to the world. Its initiative to come to WW 2 is something that we all must appreciate. USA also a leading force to bring the world together under UN and fight Communism during cold war along with many powers like Muslim countries.

As I said in the end of my writing that if the current superpower starts to act abusive, they will likely to lose the power as well. And my opinion doesnt act against China rise though, as I see that power will likely to be changed through human history and now we are witnessing multipolar world is emerging.

 

[nang2]

@FairAndUnbiased

I do believe that the reason of why a nation become superpower is their distinctive moral ground and their ability to create stability to the world.

Like Roman empire which give law and order to the world and create stability in Europe. Roman people itself is from Central Asian people based on history. I dont talk whole Roman empire period. It is always much much better than Barbarian German who become The West Today at that time.

That is also similar reason of why USA becomes like Today, its power brings more benefit to the world. Its initiative to come to WW 2 is something that we all must appreciate. USA also a leading force to bring the world together under UN and fight Communism during cold war along with many powers like Muslim countries.

As I said in the end of my writing that if the current superpower starts to act abusive, they will likely to lose the power as well. And my opinion doesnt act against China rise though, as I see that power will likely to be changed through human history and now we are witnessing multipolar world is emerging.

You are not anwsering my question. I was just curious about your statement on morality and Berlin Blockade.