WHEN CHINA BECOMES NO.1, WHAT HAPPENS THEN?

[KingWest]

The Great Silk Road will ultimately connect the untapped markets of Central, West Asia, with the market of China and , ASEAN, and to an extent the maritime silk road with Japan. This is economic-based political rapprochement , my friend.

Off course it is. But it is mainly to bypass the US naval influence in the world and to not be dependent on the goodwill of the USA (in keeping open its sea lanes). In case of a war the US can completely block these sea lanes and China will be isolated. Thats why its investing in economic projects like the silk road etc.

And I believe you when you say China is a peacefull nation, I dont want to argue about that. But claiming a nation wont go to war because its peacefull is wrong. China has maritime disputes with allmost all nations in ASEAN.It has border disputes with lots of countires. Its interests are different than the interests of Japan, the USA etc. And in the future it may intervene in countries to safeguard their interests. And intevene can mean lots of things. Intervening to topple a hostile dictator, or intervene to help a country in order to keep its own interests safe. Remember that China is a member of the P5 and it has the obligation to help countries in need (R2P) . It wont just stay at the sidelines if its investments are threatened.

China is a rather rational nation. It doesnt act emotional on big issues. But one day will come, when it has the power to intervene and when it has benefits to it.

Quote: If you want peace, prepare for war

As an outsider I just simply give my opinion. Im not pro-China, Im not anti-China. This is a good thing because thats why I can analyse the situation as rational as possible. Asian members will still have somewhat emotions involved when talking about the "Future of China" . Even if its pride. I try to watch and understand the Chinese actions from a rational point of view. I tried to do the same with Russia, but I caught myself analysing things more emotionally lately since the downing of the Russian jet.

 

[Genesis]

When China becomes #1 in economy, it is the end of the honey moon period between China and US. If you think this is bad, wait for it to get worse.

China can still do well under the US in the current system, but it is getting more difficult. Unlike decades past where we can sit idle and let American interests stand, as they don't interfere with ours, soon our interests will collide.

The Asian Infrastructure Bank and the New Development Banks are challenges to the American systems sure, but they are still regional. Yuan may have been added to the mix, but it's still a small player. Chinese military maybe rising, but it's not much compared to the US globally.

In the realm of rare earth, where we dominate, America has been raising a stink about it. We are the number one trade partner for Africa, and look how the West paint us there. We will go to "war," not because we hate each other, but only one nation can dominate a field and since Chinese government doesn't take tax dollars from the American people, the one to dominate would have to be us.

My friend, you must study China in and out. You see we Japanese have a very strong , in grained understanding of Chinese psyche / Chinese psychology because we think similarly with them , we know them very well (afterall Japanese came from what is mainland China). Throughout China's 5 millennial history , they have never been an expansionist or exterminationist civilization. China , as a civilization, is not draconian in nature, they are and were an agricultural - based civilization, and relatively peaceful. The only wars China have had was the wars to integrate the Chinese princely states and to form the precursor of a unified China, the Qin Dynasty. Chinese have a saying , which direclty influences their civili society from the grassroots level to the national entity level -- This is what they call Tian Xia Wei Gong -- "All is Equal Under Heaven", which is the paradigm of Harmony (which we Japanese also hold quite dear).

China is not a religious society, she has never been a expansionist power rather, they have been largely economical in nature. Even during the height of their most glorious Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty, the Chinese explored the world and mapped the seas under the leadership of their famed admiral Zheng He, but they were not interventionist, rather, they did so to have an understanding of the world in relation to their Middle Kingdom.

Trade, Political Stability, Harmony, ORDER --- this is a trait of Confucian Civilization. And that cultural trait reflects on China, in a greater philosophical schema.

I am afraid this is a limited view of China. Not your fault, you obviously haven't spent as much time on Chinese history as I have, a understandable choice.

China at the start is very small, relatively. With emperor WuDi, he fought XiongNu, a once great empire that was reduced to a client state. He expanded to Xinjiang at that time. He dominated the Vietnamese and the Koreas. In the years after, Han Dynasty continued his expansion that made much of what China is today, it's own.

Even during the three kingdoms, CaoCao can get the XiongNu to hand over the wife of a prominent prince because he felt like it. He established a system that had Chinese officials run their armies.


In the dynasties after, Tang, subjegates people left right and center. They even have Korean, Vietnamese, and other minority generals take armies and fight. At that point all except the North East provinces of today's China were completely ours.

In Song, we ruled over the minorities on the outskirts with an iron fist, while the Yuan Mongols interrupted for 70 years, that ended with Yongle of Ming to make it his life's mission to decimate the Mongol empire, he defeated the NvZhen of North East China and made them his subjects as did Vietnam. He also sent imperial troops to visit the states all the way to Africa.

The Qing, while not Chinese at the time, were waging war, for pretty much its entire history.


So not only does China subjugate other nations, we did it for much of our history. I mean how else do you have a nation as big as ours if we did nothing of the sort.

 

[Aepsilons]

Off course it is. But it is mainly to bypass the US naval influence in the world and to not be dependent on the goodwill of the USA (in keeping open its sea lanes). In case of a war the US can completely block these sea lanes and China will be isolated. Thats why its investing in economic projects like the silk road etc.

Precisely, my friend, and the Chinese have the rational and incentive mind to tap into this. Let's be clear hear my friend, the population of Central Asia and Western Asia is 66 million, 300 million, respectively. That is a population of nearly 366 million, and that is not even including Northern Asia (Russian Federation), which is an additional 150 million. Combined we are looking at over 500 million people (that's roughly the same population of Europe).

What is the potential that China is looking at and will tap into with the genesis of this Great Silk Road Project:

• Access to the oil, natural gas and hydrogen reserves in Central and Wet Asia
• Access to the lumber, tin, zinc, copper, lead, cadmium, and other heavy metals
• Access to the untapped market of over 500 million that is largely undeveloped
• Access to projecting Chinese goods and building a Silk-Road-Wide HSR (High speed) Rail System
  • China plans to export her HSR systems to these markets (well we have to make sure Japan also competes, LOL!)
  • This will ultimately bring and change the demographic nature of the region and will disseminate respect and cooperation with the Chinese (who have the capital to develop)

When China becomes #1 in economy, it is the end of the honey moon period between China and US. If you think this is bad, wait for it to get worse.

China can still do well under the US in the current system, but it is getting more difficult. Unlike decades past where we can sit idle and let American interests stand, as they don't interfere with ours, soon our interests will collide.

The Asian Infrastructure Bank and the New Development Banks are challenges to the American systems sure, but they are still regional. Yuan may have been added to the mix, but it's still a small player. Chinese military maybe rising, but it's not much compared to the US globally.

In the realm of rare earth, where we dominate, America has been raising a stink about it. We are the number one trade partner for Africa, and look how the West paint us there. We will go to "war," not because we hate each other, but only one nation can dominate a field and since Chinese government doesn't take tax dollars from the American people, the one to dominate would have to be us.



I am afraid this is a limited view of China. Not your fault, you obviously haven't spent as much time on Chinese history as I have, a understandable choice.

China at the start is very small, relatively. With emperor WuDi, he fought XiongNu, a once great empire that was reduced to a client state. He expanded to Xinjiang at that time. He dominated the Vietnamese and the Koreas. In the years after, Han Dynasty continued his expansion that made much of what China is today, it's own.

Even during the three kingdoms, CaoCao can get the XiongNu to hand over the wife of a prominent prince because he felt like it. He established a system that had Chinese officials run their armies.


In the dynasties after, Tang, subjegates people left right and center. They even have Korean, Vietnamese, and other minority generals take armies and fight. At that point all except the North East provinces of today's China were completely ours.

In Song, we ruled over the minorities on the outskirts with an iron fist, while the Yuan Mongols interrupted for 70 years, that ended with Yongle of Ming to make it his life's mission to decimate the Mongol empire, he defeated the NvZhen of North East China and made them his subjects as did Vietnam. He also sent imperial troops to visit the states all the way to Africa.

The Qing, while not Chinese at the time, were waging war, for pretty much its entire history.


So not only does China subjugate other nations, we did it for much of our history. I mean how else do you have a nation as big as ours if we did nothing of the sort.

Yes, thank you for sharing with me and the rest of us the specifics of Chinese state politics and political harmonzation process , which ties in with the theme of National Order and Resistance to Foreign Ideology and Foreign Interventionism. I think it goes back to my post, but I do surely appreciate your contribution and sharing of the high level specifics of historical incidents. Thanks Buddy!

The Asian Infrastructure Bank and the New Development Banks are challenges to the American systems sure, but they are still regional. Yuan may have been added to the mix, but it's still a small player. Chinese military maybe rising, but it's not much compared to the US globally.

I like to refrain from commenting on diversionary and divisive verbiage, my friend, of pro-American, pro-West leaning processes as it leads to animosity. Anyways, I should like to rephrase the paradigm here that you mentioned , it is more so not 'Pro-China', but Pro-Developmentalist, and the Developing world. Japan, as a nation that has championed the developing world, and neo-colonial states immediately after the 2nd world war, we , too have seen the importance of investing in the potential of the newly independent states after the collapse of the Western-led and Western-based Imperial area systems.

On that spirit of developmentalism, i suppose Japan does not resist or counter China's design to help develop (developing) the developing world. In fact , Japan cooperates actively on the private sector, if not directly in the governmental level, due to residual concerns of the alliance systems that have been unduly imposed upon.

 

[Atlanticore]

My foot! His opinion is very western pro and biased. Pakistan and turkey can never be friends as long as turkey stick and depend on US. Most Pakistanis will choose China over Turkey if it needs to.

Actually things are pretty much different here. Sino-Pak Relations are very special Relations in terms of Mutual interests and Strategic balance of the region. Pakistanis have the most favorable view of China after China itself.
Pak-Turk relations are also very special in its kind. Relations date back generations before the establishment of the two states, more precisely during the Turkish War of Independence when the Muslims of the northwestern British Raj (pre-independent Pakistan) sent financial aid to the declining Ottoman Empire which was followed by the formation of the Turkish Republic. As a result Pakistan and Pakistanis have enjoyed a positive perception in Turkey and amongst Turks for many decades.
So if you would ask us to chose anyone from Turkey and China, we would commit a suicide. (lol JK) Because its far more difficult to pick any one from our 2 best Friends. Instead we will bring these 2 countries more closer to each other which will be the win-win situation for all of us.

 

[Aepsilons]

Actually things are pretty much different here. Sino-Pak Relations are very special Relations in terms of Mutual interests and Strategic balance of the region. Pakistanis have the most favorable view of China after China itself.
Pak-Turk relations are also very special in its kind. Relations date back generations before the establishment of the two states, more precisely during the Turkish War of Independence when the Muslims of the northwestern British Raj (pre-independent Pakistan) sent financial aid to the declining Ottoman Empire which was followed by the formation of the Turkish Republic. As a result Pakistan and Pakistanis have enjoyed a positive perception in Turkey and amongst Turks for many decades.
So if you would ask us to chose anyone from Turkey and China, we would commit a suicide. (lol JK) Because its far more difficult to pick any one from our 2 best Friends. Instead we will bring these 2 countries more closer to each other which will be the win-win situation for all of us.

Historically, my friend, there is the bond Pakistan (as the heirs of Mogul Empire) has with Turkey (heir of the Ottoman Empire). Pakistan has the responsibility of finding balance and working the relations with a fellow Islamic brother state, Turkey, with its political and strategic ally, the Peoples Republic of China. It does not necessarily have to be Zero-Sum mentality of "with us or not", which is usually a trait of American foreign policy mandates , ergo, "Either you are with us or you are against us; ergo American pressuring EU and Japan to level sanctions on Russia over Ukraine/Crimea crisis".

I would caution for a more objectivistic lens and see the potential in Pakistan operating as the conduit in which Turkey and China can better relations and work through any cultural, ethnic, and political differences. Ultimately, restoring cordial and strategic relations between China and Turkey will lead to Turkish-Russian political normalcy.

We have to think about the variables in the greater tactical picture, my Pakistani friend.


This is why I always have been a proponent of a Turkish-Iranian-Pakistani cooperation. It is, afterall, historical-based.

 

[Genesis]

Off course it is. But it is mainly to bypass the US naval influence in the world and to not be dependent on the goodwill of the USA (in keeping open its sea lanes). In case of a war the US can completely block these sea lanes and China will be isolated. Thats why its investing in economic projects like the silk road etc.

And I believe you when you say China is a peacefull nation, I dont want to argue about that. But claiming a nation wont go to war because its peacefull is wrong. China has maritime disputes with allmost all nations in ASEAN.It has border disputes with lots of countires. Its interests are different than the interests of Japan, the USA etc. And in the future it may intervene in countries to safeguard their interests. And intevene can mean lots of things. Intervening to topple a hostile dictator, or intervene to help a country in order to keep its own interests safe. Remember that China is a member of the P5 and it has the obligation to help countries in need (R2P) . It wont just stay at the sidelines if its investments are threatened.

China is a rather rational nation. It doesnt act emotional on big issues. But one day will come, when it has the power to intervene and when it has benefits to it.

Quote: If you want peace, prepare for war

As an outsider I just simply give my opinion. Im not pro-China, Im not anti-China. This is a good thing because thats why I can analyse the situation as rational as possible. Asian members will still have somewhat emotions involved when talking about the "Future of China" . Even if its pride. I try to watch and understand the Chinese actions from a rational point of view. I tried to do the same with Russia, but I caught myself analysing things more emotionally lately since the downing of the Russian jet.

I agree with you, but I believe China will act the same as Americans.

It's not a choice, in order to secure interests that needs to happen. Let's also not take pride out of it, an irrational reason to be sure, but that doesn't make it less influential. If anything, this is more influential.

The only thing I do want to mention is the naval factor. I think it's outdated thinking. It's 21st century, no one is going to blockade someone else, there are no more wolf packs and sanctions are only skin deep, if that. I mean the big sanction America talked about against China due to cyber activities never happened, the ones that did happen are against 5 guys that would never go to America anyways.

China's building of new trade routes is to increase the volume of trade and to cut down cost. China must improve worker's wage, but we can still compete on infrastructure quality and quantity.

I like to refrain from commenting on diversionary and divisive verbiage, my friend, of pro-American, pro-West leaning processes as it leads to animosity. Anyways, I should like to rephrase the paradigm here that you mentioned , it is more so not 'Pro-China', but Pro-Developmentalist, and the Developing world. Japan, as a nation that has championed the developing world, and neo-colonial states immediately after the 2nd world war, we , too have seen the importance of investing in the potential of the newly independent states after the collapse of the Western-led and Western-based Imperial area systems.

On that spirit of developmentalism, i suppose Japan does not resist or counter China's design to help develop (developing) the developing world. In fact , Japan cooperates actively on the private sector, if not directly in the governmental level, due to residual concerns of the alliance systems that have been unduly imposed upon.

On that topic alone, of course. But nothing in this world stands alone. A moon landing for China will be huge, but the scientific value would pale in comparison to the prestige value. If we can land on the moon, we can do other stuff as well.

If we can build a bridge, we can sell other things as well. You can see more and more Huawei sales in Africa, because the Africans has seen our progress. Our HSR has had unintended consequences for advanced nations, we cut their sales. That is only a domestic project. What do you think will happen for Chinese goods once the Indonesia starts to run our high tech product. Oh and watch out for our Maglev trains, the second one will soon come online.

Individual interests and national interests are not the same deal. To me personally, the continue prosperity of the West is paramount to any other interest. While nationally, China doesn't believe the same. Hence Japanese government is not wrong, it just isn't decisive.

If Japanese government truly believe the fall of China, it needs to be way tougher on China to get more out of the West, but it's not. If it believes China will rise, then it's policies will not help. Look at Hong Kong, they had a look and see strategy, in 2014, Xi didn't even care enough to sent someone important to the protests.

If there's one thing I believe in is decisiveness. You can be wrong, but if you wait, you will be wrong.

 

[Dungeness]

You know, my friend, besides minor (excessively very minor) issues such as historical disagreements , which will be settled in time, there is very little areas that Japan opposes China in. Territoriality will be solved accordingly and issue of maritime security will be solved through bilateral arrangments. If you know , all this hoopla about Japan "resisting" China in the South China Sea has been US military media and US pressuring Japan. Besides a show of security appraisal , the Japanese security forces have not engaged the Chinese even in our Senkaku / Daiyutai issue since 2012-2013, a sign of Japan's willingness to calm the issue and restore order / find a solution , a diplomatic one.

The United States , you see my friend, wants to put discord between Japan and China and will play the territoriality card to further bridge Japan with China , which ultimately will secure Washington's imposed alliance system on Japan. I have seen this now that further complications with Beijing only SERVERELY hurts Japan. The two (Japan and China) are just too heavily integrated economically for there to be any 'Japanese safe landing' in the event of a Chinese collapse. It won't happen. If China collapses, Japan collapses. Period.

In fact this week --- with Chinese stock market routing 7%, the Nikkei Index fell close to 3%. It only rose when China stabilized their markets with government bond infusion. Anyways, i don't want to talk too much my friend as what i say is being watched with concern.

Its just best to know that Japan will survive even after the collapse of the Washington-Tokyo Strategic Alliance of 1951. Japan is over 3 Millennia Old. We are an ancient civilization that existed time immemorial with the Chinese before the dawn of civilization. Even before the idea of 'America' was breathed into existence by the English in the 17th century, there already was a NIPPON (Japan).

Interesting writing, though in sharp contrast to your advocating the glory of WWII imperial Japanese army in your past posts. Who is watching you, if I may ask?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I agree with you, but I believe China will act the same as Americans.

I don't believe we will.

The reason being that we will never be the "sole superpower" as America has been in recent history. The power dynamics are different, we will be facing countries that are of a similar power level to ourselves, not one country being completely dominant.

 

[Aepsilons]

If we can build a bridge, we can sell other things as well. You can see more and more Huawei sales in Africa, because the Africans has seen our progress. Our HSR has had unintended consequences for advanced nations, we cut their sales. That is only a domestic project. What do you think will happen for Chinese goods once the Indonesia starts to run our high tech product. Oh and watch out for our Maglev trains, the second one will soon come online.

Of course, as a Japanese Patriot, I do not disagree with this at all. It is evident when I read strategic journals such as Journal of the Developing World, when I read the theme of African high perception of Chinese contract workers and Chinese businesses operating in Africa, it resonates. So, on that note, I am glad, as an East Asian myself, to see an East Asian national entity, succeeding and continuing the theme of progress.

Individual interests and national interests are not the same deal. To me personally, the continue prosperity of the West is paramount to any other interest. While nationally, China doesn't believe the same. Hence Japanese government is not wrong, it just isn't decisive.

Japan has , unfortunately, to appease various factional groups in the Japanese Government and in the wider Japanese Society, my friend. You must never underestimate the Washington state actors that have weaseled themselves into Japanese National Diet, and certain Washington-based lobby groups have an ear into the Japanese political schema, unfortunately. This is why, my friend, Japanese Government has to utilize private processes for projects that it has a strong inkling to cooperate on but is countered by Washington's cautionary stance. You have to understand , my friend, that the United States naturally does not want Japan to develop relations or become too 'independent' , to do so would undermine Washington's position in Japan, they fear that Japan will eventually demand their abandoning of Japan. Afterall Japan is the very center piece of Washington's Pacific Interest. If they lose Japan, they lose everything.

This is why Japan, unfortunately has always to account for the abstractist political interest. This catering to Washington's sensitivity, is the catalyst of what you term as 'indecisiveness'. Ultimately Japan is playing with one hand behind her back. This is a just a reality we have to understand and accept.

 

[KN-1]

Actually things are pretty much different here. Sino-Pak Relations are very special Relations in terms of Mutual interests and Strategic balance of the region. Pakistanis have the most favorable view of China after China itself.
Pak-Turk relations are also very special in its kind. Relations date back generations before the establishment of the two states, more precisely during the Turkish War of Independence when the Muslims of the northwestern British Raj (pre-independent Pakistan) sent financial aid to the declining Ottoman Empire which was followed by the formation of the Turkish Republic. As a result Pakistan and Pakistanis have enjoyed a positive perception in Turkey and amongst Turks for many decades.
So if you would ask us to chose anyone from Turkey and China, we would commit a suicide. (lol JK) Because its far more difficult to pick any one from our 2 best Friends. Instead we will bring these 2 countries more closer to each other which will be the win-win situation for all of us.

I dont know what is his problem with Turks and Arabs, he always criticize them... while i have yet to find a single statement of Chinese official against Turks and GCC countries..

he should know that growing China need more friends not imaginary enemies made by PDF...

 

[Aepsilons]

Interesting writing, though in sharp contrast to your advocating the glory of WWII imperial Japanese army in your past posts. Who is watching you, if I may ask?

I have always been a pro East Asian integrationist, ask @Shotgunner51 @TaiShang @Chinese-Dragon whom i have interacted with her the longest since i joined this forum. I am a Japanese Patriot who prides in military history and military glory (as i love military history), i dont necessary pride myself in abuses of civilians and unethical conduct.

Let's just say some agencies have warned me before in my comments that are 'contrary' to any abstractist alliance system, lol.

Such hoopla is ridiculous.

I dont know what is his problem with Turks and Arabs, he always criticize them... while i have yet to find a single statement of Chinese official against Turks and GCC countries..

he should know that growing China need more friends not imaginary enemies made by PDF...

Lets just say that not everyone in PDF represent actual government position. My friend, i think the issue of the Uighyur / Xinjiang exigency is being blown out of proportion. Ultimately, state actors between Ankara and Beijing have more mutual interests than ethnic based differences.

 

[KingWest]

I agree with you, but I believe China will act the same as Americans.
.

I dont think China will act the same as the Americans. The situation that shaped American foreign policy is too different than the Chinese situation nowadays. The USA was the worlds one and only superpower for the last decade. They could literally do whatever they wanted when they wanted, and no-one could do something about it. They will have problems fitting in a multipolar world , where they have to give other countries an explanation for their foreign policy in the future. The Americans will find it rather hard for them to adopt to such a scenario. The Chinese on the other hand will shape the world in a multipolar order.
Eventually there will be a few zones of influence which will collide. But in the future I believe the Chinese will have a large say in Asia, while the Americans will have more to say in Europe, the American continent etc. Chinese will never meddle in countries to close to the US as the Americans once did with countries far away from them (Iraq, Vietnam).

I don't believe we will.

The reason being that we will never be the "sole superpower" as America has been in recent history. The power dynamics are different, we will be facing countries that are of a similar power level to ourselves, not one country being completely dominant.

I agree

(Edit: I still dont understand why we have to bring Turkey into this discussion?)

 

[Aepsilons]

(Edit: I still dont understand why we have to bring Turkey into this discussion?)

Turkey will always be in any equation when we are discussing global geopolitics. Turkey is a centerpiece of the Middle East, actually there are three (Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia). Turkey is also essential in the Silk Road, essential in the NATO alliance, essential in the EU free trade area. So, naturally, its something the Chinese, and the world, cannot ignore.

 

[KingWest]

Turkey will always be in any equation when we are discussing global geopolitics. Turkey is a centerpiece of the Middle East, actually there are three (Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia). Turkey is also essential in the Silk Road, essential in the NATO alliance, essential in the EU free trade area. So, naturally, its something the Chinese, and the world, cannot ignore.

Yeah but the reality when I want to discuss Chinese issues is that I get replies like "what do you know about it , Turkish bla bla. You should look at Turkey before talking about China" etc. It hinders a good discussion with the members that actually want to discuss these topics.

The discussion is not about Turkey itself, its more Turkey bashing and trolling. If we would just talk about Turkeys role in for example China's rise, that would be contributing something . But the reality is different.

 

[Tiger Genie]

Can China sustain its economy (whether its status as #1 or #2 ) without the US? The dependency is quite mutual though bit have tried to create options in Europe and elsehwere with limited success. If relationship turn significantly hostile, and the large scale trade between the two is halted, both will suffer. Who will suffer the most is the question, and for how long. My theory is that it will be easier for the US to replace its Chinese suppliers with others than it is for China to replace its US buyers with others.

It is not like this is a great secret. All talk of US losing its power is highly suspect. Even a simple thing as dollar's collpase will ruin the Chinese economy as so much of its free reserves and investments are in dollars. Similarly, the US has an interest to keep the Chinese economy afloat so that the nagging question of Chinese held treasury notes do not come up.