WHEN CHINA BECOMES NO.1, WHAT HAPPENS THEN?

[Atlanticore]

I dont know what is his problem with Turks and Arabs, he always criticize them... while i have yet to find a single statement of Chinese official against Turks and GCC countries..

he should know that growing China need more friends not imaginary enemies made by PDF...

Its okay. He has his own point of view , with which you and I don't agree. I have researched why some of Chinese people have negative views about Turkey and Arab countries. I talked with almost 9 to 10 Chinese friends on facebook and i found that their negative views about these countries are because of 2 factors. First, Some of Chinese people don't really have a good general knowledge about the global world because of massive internet censorship and Media censorship. Second is that They judge countries according to their relations with USA. Arab countries are the key Allies of USA so you can better understand the reason. Negative thoughts about Turkey increased when Western Media Hype was created about Uighurs Muslims and protests in Turkey in which angry mobs broke the Chinese restaurant and beated Chinese staff of that restaurant. And Downing of Russian Aircraft Further severed the condition.

 

[Aepsilons]

Its okay. He has his own point of view , with which you and I don't agree. I have researched why some of Chinese people have negative views about Turkey and Arab countries. I talked with almost 9 to 10 Chinese friends on facebook and i found that their negative views about these countries are because of 2 factors. First, Some of Chinese people don't really have a good general knowledge about the global world because of massive internet censorship and Media censorship. Second is that They judge countries according to their relations with USA. Arab countries are the key Allies of USA so you can better understand the reason. Negative thoughts about Turkey increased when Western Media Hype was created about Rohingya Muslims and protests in Turkey in which angry mobs broke the Chinese restaurant and beated Chinese staff of that restaurant. And Downing of Russian Aircraft Further severed the condition.

Don't also forget the issue of Uighyur nationalism, that is a major issue for Chinese patriots as the notion of an East Turkestan is antithetical to Chinese national solidarity. China will put down any sort of rebellious movement , and she shall do so mercilessly. In fact if Japan was in China's position, we would do the same as well. National preservation trumps extranational pacts and alliance systems.

 

[Atlanticore]

Historically, my friend, there is the bond Pakistan (as the heirs of Mogul Empire) has with Turkey (heir of the Ottoman Empire). Pakistan has the responsibility of finding balance and working the relations with a fellow Islamic brother state, Turkey, with its political and strategic ally, the Peoples Republic of China. It does not necessarily have to be Zero-Sum mentality of "with us or not", which is usually a trait of American foreign policy mandates , ergo, "Either you are with us or you are against us; ergo American pressuring EU and Japan to level sanctions on Russia over Ukraine/Crimea crisis".

I would caution for a more objectivistic lens and see the potential in Pakistan operating as the conduit in which Turkey and China can better relations and work through any cultural, ethnic, and political differences. Ultimately, restoring cordial and strategic relations between China and Turkey will lead to Turkish-Russian political normalcy.

We have to think about the variables in the greater tactical picture, my Pakistani friend.


This is why I always have been a proponent of a Turkish-Iranian-Pakistani cooperation. It is, afterall, historical-based.

Exactly, there is not even a single line in your post which i can't agree with.

 

[Genesis]

I don't believe we will.

The reason being that we will never be the "sole superpower" as America has been in recent history. The power dynamics are different, we will be facing countries that are of a similar power level to ourselves, not one country being completely dominant.

If the cold war has taught us anything is a multipolar world will leave the superpowers far less options than desired.

If we fold in SCS we will look weak, and our goal of global leadership will never come to fruition. Had there not been an America, we could have negotiated and Philippines wouldn't have acted the way they did.

Now in order to show the world we are serious, we must make someone an example.

America faces the same problem, if they back out, Asia will be ours. They don't want that, so they can't leave. They can leave the middle east because who's going to replace them? Iraq? Iran? No way in hell.

On the surface we would be more restrained, but in reality, multi polar backs every super power into a corner they can't come out of.

Japan has , unfortunately, to appease various factional groups in the Japanese Government and in the wider Japanese Society, my friend. You must never underestimate the Washington state actors that have weaseled themselves into Japanese National Diet, and certain Washington-based lobby groups have an ear into the Japanese political schema, unfortunately. This is why, my friend, Japanese Government has to utilize private processes for projects that it has a strong inkling to cooperate on but is countered by Washington's cautionary stance. You have to understand , my friend, that the United States naturally does not want Japan to develop relations or become too 'independent' , to do so would undermine Washington's position in Japan, they fear that Japan will eventually demand their abandoning of Japan. Afterall Japan is the very center piece of Washington's Pacific Interest. If they lose Japan, they lose everything.

This is why Japan, unfortunately has always to account for the abstractist political interest. This catering to Washington's sensitivity, is the catalyst of what you term as 'indecisiveness'. Ultimately Japan is playing with one hand behind her back. This is a just a reality we have to understand and accept.

Everybody's got problems. I understand the reasons for the indecisiveness, that doesn't make it right. I understand why Tyson is who he is, and why Mayweather is who he is. Doesn't make it right.

China's got our own problems, if you read the recent news, it is my opinion, Xi just sacrificed his loyal supporter General Li of logistics to show how serious he is in cutting back army personnel.

I like that American gangster quote. "You're either somebody, or nobody."

I dont think China will act the same as the Americans. The situation that shaped American foreign policy is too different than the Chinese situation nowadays. The USA was the worlds one and only superpower for the last decade. They could literally do whatever they wanted when they wanted, and no-one could do something about it. They will have problems fitting in a multipolar world , where they have to give other countries an explanation for their foreign policy in the future. The Americans will find it rather hard for them to adopt to such a scenario. The Chinese on the other hand will shape the world in a multipolar order.
Eventually there will be a few zones of influence which will collide. But in the future I believe the Chinese will have a large say in Asia, while the Americans will have more to say in Europe, the American continent etc. Chinese will never meddle in countries to close to the US as the Americans once did with countries far away from them (Iraq, Vietnam).

I voiced my opinion on multi polar world in this post, and to the zone theory I will say this.

60s and 70s China, people were starving. All my dad wanted was to have a meat dish every week. Then came the 80s, his goal was everything he wanted to eat he can, and an apartment of his own. 90s came, he wanted to see the world and went to Japan. He eventually took the family to Canada in the 00s.

Now it's not just cars and homes, it's expensive ones. From a boy that just wanted to not be hungry anymore to a man that isn't satisfied with a Toyota.

There is never an end to a person, or in this case, a nation's desire.

Your theory rests on the assumption China will stop once we take Asia, we won't.

 

[Atlanticore]

Don't also forget the issue of Uighyur nationalism, that is a major issue for Chinese patriots as the notion of an East Turkestan is antithetical to Chinese national solidarity. China will put down any sort of rebellious movement , and she shall do so mercilessly. In fact if Japan was in China's position, we would do the same as well. National preservation trumps extranational pacts and alliance systems.

Yeah sorry, i mistakenly said Rohingya Muslims.

 

[Aepsilons]

Yeah sorry, i mistakenly said Rohingya Muslims.

Yes, that's the Bangladeshi issue with Burma / India. Interestingly enough, bro, China took in thousands of Rohingya.

In China's hinterlands, a new life for Myanmar's Rohingya - East by Southeast

Everybody's got problems. I understand the reasons for the indecisiveness, that doesn't make it right. I understand why Tyson is who he is, and why Mayweather is who he is. Doesn't make it right.

China's got our own problems, if you read the recent news, it is my opinion, Xi just sacrificed his loyal supporter General Li of logistics to show how serious he is in cutting back army personnel.

I like that American gangster quote. "You're either somebody, or nobody."

lol, great examples, Gen. Sure, i agree.

 

[Keel]

Yes in both agricultural GDP and industrial GDP. So as in major indicators like manufacturing value added, steel production, electricity generation, merchandise exports, hi-tech exports, etc. However in services GDP, China is still second due to low consumption high savings.

In terms of international financial balance sheet, the two are in exactly opposite directions so no comparison.

"international financial balance sheet" what is that? Care to share?

Interesting writing, though in sharp contrast to your advocating the glory of WWII imperial Japanese army in your past posts. Who is watching you, if I may ask?

Very well said
One is not to judge a book by its cover

.

 

[Aepsilons]

Very well said
One is not to judge a book by its cover

Its called multidimensional analysis and multi-factorial analysis. Just because I disagree with some sectors in Sino-Japanese rapproachment systems, does not necessarily mean i will be opposed to cooperation in other sectors, or opposed to Chinese rise, for that matter. In the interpersonal dynamic theory of social psychology and developmental psychology, we refer to this as the paradigm of Attribution and Social Identity Theorie(s).

In the mature schema of academic discourse, we operate on theoretical critical analysis, positional analysis, theoretical provision and counter-provision, analysis of subjective data, as well as objective data. This is the mature debate, discussion process we in the field of research and academia abide by. Where subjective emotion is controlled when engaging in complex philosophical dialectics.


Regards.

 

[Atlanticore]

Yes, that's the Bangladeshi issue with Burma / India. Interestingly enough, bro, China took in thousands of Rohingya.

That's very humanitarian act I must say. Unfortunately Western media don't show the Soft Image of Asian countries, which is really a bad Journalism.

 

[Aepsilons]

That's very humanitarian act I must say. Unfortunately Western media don't show the Soft Image of Asian countries, which is really a bad Journalism.

Well, of course not, it would be contrary to liberal media (western) objectives, my friend.

 

[Keel]

Its called multidimensional analysis and multi-factorial analysis. Just because I disagree with some sectors in Sino-Japanese rapproachment systems, does not necessarily mean i will be opposed to cooperation in other sectors, or opposed to Chinese rise, for that matter. In the interpersonal dynamic theory of social psychology and developmental psychology, we refer to this as the paradigm of Attribution and Social Identity Theorie(s).

In the mature schema of academic discourse, we operate on theoretical critical analysis, positional analysis, theoretical provision and counter-provision, analysis of subjective data, as well as objective data. This is the mature debate, discussion process we in the field of research and academia abide by. Where subjective emotion is controlled when engaging in complex philosophical dialectics.


Regards.

I am not against some of those so called "co-operation" between China and the japanese community either
I agree with what Dungerness said
I look at things rather thoroughly

.

 

[anon45]

My friend, you must study China in and out. You see we Japanese have a very strong , in grained understanding of Chinese psyche / Chinese psychology because we think similarly with them , we know them very well (afterall Japanese came from what is mainland China). Throughout China's 5 millennial history , they have never been an expansionist or exterminationist civilization. China , as a civilization, is not draconian in nature, they are and were an agricultural - based civilization, and relatively peaceful. The only wars China have had was the wars to integrate the Chinese princely states and to form the precursor of a unified China, the Qin Dynasty. Chinese have a saying , which direclty influences their civili society from the grassroots level to the national entity level -- This is what they call Tian Xia Wei Gong -- "All is Equal Under Heaven", which is the paradigm of Harmony (which we Japanese also hold quite dear).

China is not a religious society, she has never been a expansionist power rather, they have been largely economical in nature. Even during the height of their most glorious Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty, the Chinese explored the world and mapped the seas under the leadership of their famed admiral Zheng He, but they were not interventionist, rather, they did so to have an understanding of the world in relation to their Middle Kingdom.

Trade, Political Stability, Harmony, ORDER --- this is a trait of Confucian Civilization. And that cultural trait reflects on China, in a greater philosophical schema.



The Great Silk Road will ultimately connect the untapped markets of Central, West Asia, with the market of China and , ASEAN, and to an extent the maritime silk road with Japan. This is economic-based political rapprochement , my friend.

Sorry Nihonjin, you don't reach China's size without expansion.

Also under the current standards today China is attempting to expand its territory, as it is trying to place areas that are not currently under its administration, under its administration, through both economic/military carrots and sticks.

This includes much of the South China Sea, disputes between it and India, Taiwan, and Japan.

the justification is essentially they used to be under their control. Which brings disturbing parallels to the sudetenland for us more western focused people.

So far both the US and China are attempting to manage their relations to a positive benefit, you can see this with the joint military exercises, but it is difficult for me to see how China's stated core interest of a South China sea essentially under its sovereign control and the US stated core interest of upholding its commitment to its allies and freedom of navigation under current international norms for its navy can reach a compromise.

There are Chinese on here who believe the US will not go to war over a guarantee, but the fact is that to not do so is simply not an option in our politics anymore than Taiwan's fully recognized independence is an option in Chinese politics. It would be fatal for whichever party did so.


To me, a conflict of some intensity looks all but inevitable without a concession from both sides. Nationalism just runs too high in both publics.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

To me, a conflict of some intensity looks all but inevitable without a concession from both sides. Nationalism just runs too high in both publics.

That's why we are hoping that Donald Trump wins the US Presidency. So they'll finally have to put their money where their mouth is. Or admit they aren't willing to handle the losses.

Enough of these "red lines" in Syria, Crimea, Philippines, and the South China Sea. When you draw a red line, you have to stick to it.

Not get your red line crossed a hundred times and pretend that nothing happened.

 

[nang2]

Enjoy daydreaming.

 

[jhungary]

Have to admire people's naiveties on the internet.

If China do become number 1, nothing would happen and US foreign policy will stay the same, and the only thing changes is Chinese will be richer than before, not a lot too.

People need to realise, US foreign policy goes on the US National Interest, not China, the only way China can remotely influence US Foreign Policy is by Militarily stronger than the US, and become world number 1 in the Militaries. The problem is, this is not going to happen soon, not in the next 50 years. or even I doubt would this be actually happening at all. But then even if China get to a point where their military strength is greater than US, or to some extend, NATO, that does not mean China will intervene on US Foreign Policy.

It's even funnier to see people saying China influence in South America will lead to Proxy war with the US, would any South American government, no matter how stupid they are, would actually start a war with the US and totally counting on China support? Look at the map, US can have a land invasion route to any South American country. While China have to cross a sea called the Pacific, and the Pacific is the playground for US military, and Hawaii is a choke point for most of the shipping East Bound thru the pacific... . It would be quite literally stupid for any South American leader to think they could start a war with the US with support coming in from China via an ocean that was controlled by the United States...

Economically, Trade and Politic are two separate entity, you can have trade partner with everybody, but you can only have one political affiliation, just because someone is trading with you does not mean they have to buy your political goal as well. In fact, if history are any sort of indication, the situation is almost always opposite. People would simply take your money, and run.

Another point being, even China beats US in term of GDP in any way or form, it would still be decades before China become prosper, do bear in mind even with China beating US GDP in number, China also beat US in population, by a very big margin, and what do you think Chinese would do? Go around the world and start making trouble? Or stay home and work on her other population? What do you think?