What is leading Indian army's rethink of its typically inelastic position on Siachin?

[Pak Nationalist]

Indian Army chief only repeated what has been India's official stance since atleast 2007-08:

The story of a glacial trust deficit | StratPost

The story of a glacial trust deficit | StratPost

stratpost.com

Indian army has sabotaged diplomatic efforts aimed at demilitarizing the Siachin glacier in the past. Demilitarization for it has been off the table in all forms. Naravane seems to be extending a concession. The question is why.

Indian Army chief only repeated what has been India's official stance since atleast 2007-08:

The story of a glacial trust deficit | StratPost

The story of a glacial trust deficit | StratPost

stratpost.com

//Sporadic efforts to resolve the dispute have included the idea of converting Siachen into an “international peace park.” Less idealistic approaches have focused on the demilitarization of the glacier, but only after both sides had reached an agreement delineating the areas they had occupied before withdrawing and pledging not to try to take them back. These efforts won some support within the government headed by Indian National Congress party leader Manmohan Singh in the 2000s. But they were stoutly opposed by the Indian Army, one of the few security issues on which the normally apolitical uniformed military has taken a public stand.

This was particularly evident in 2006, when India and Pakistan seemed to be coming close to an agreement on the issue. In a telegram later released by Wikileaks, the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi reported in May of that year that “Army Chief J.J. Singh appears on the front page of the Indian Express seemingly fortnightly to tell readers the Army cannot support a withdrawal from Siachen.” The embassy went on to note that “given India’s high degree of civilian control over the armed forces, it is improbable that Gen. Singh could repeatedly make such statements without Ministry of Defense civilians giving it at least tacit approval.” It concluded that “[w]hether or not this is the case, a Siachen deal is improbable while his – and the Army’s – opposition continues to circulate publicly.” After the most recent tragedy, LtGen D. S. Hooda, who heads the Northern Command of the Indian army, has maintained this position. He was quoted in a Kashmiri paper as saying that despite these tragic casualties, India must remain in its present positions. He specifically ruled out the mutual demilitarization suggested by Pakistan.//

Siachen back in the news—but don't look for peace yet

Teresita and Howard Schaffer reflect on how India and Pakistan sometimes find it difficult to shift gears to solve problems, even when they would greatly benefit from doing so.

www.brookings.edu

 

[Akatosh]

Indian army has sabotaged diplomatic efforts aimed at demilitarizing the Siachin glacier in the past. Demilitarization for it has been off the table in all forms. Naravane seems to be extending a concession. The question is why.



//Sporadic efforts to resolve the dispute have included the idea of converting Siachen into an “international peace park.” Less idealistic approaches have focused on the demilitarization of the glacier, but only after both sides had reached an agreement delineating the areas they had occupied before withdrawing and pledging not to try to take them back. These efforts won some support within the government headed by Indian National Congress party leader Manmohan Singh in the 2000s. But they were stoutly opposed by the Indian Army, one of the few security issues on which the normally apolitical uniformed military has taken a public stand.

This was particularly evident in 2006, when India and Pakistan seemed to be coming close to an agreement on the issue. In a telegram later released by Wikileaks, the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi reported in May of that year that “Army Chief J.J. Singh appears on the front page of the Indian Express seemingly fortnightly to tell readers the Army cannot support a withdrawal from Siachen.” The embassy went on to note that “given India’s high degree of civilian control over the armed forces, it is improbable that Gen. Singh could repeatedly make such statements without Ministry of Defense civilians giving it at least tacit approval.” It concluded that “[w]hether or not this is the case, a Siachen deal is improbable while his – and the Army’s – opposition continues to circulate publicly.” After the most recent tragedy, LtGen D. S. Hooda, who heads the Northern Command of the Indian army, has maintained this position. He was quoted in a Kashmiri paper as saying that despite these tragic casualties, India must remain in its present positions. He specifically ruled out the mutual demilitarization suggested by Pakistan.//

Siachen back in the news—but don't look for peace yet

Teresita and Howard Schaffer reflect on how India and Pakistan sometimes find it difficult to shift gears to solve problems, even when they would greatly benefit from doing so.

www.brookings.edu

Gen Naravane repeated exactly what then COAS Gen JJ Singh said in 2005

India wants Pak to authenticate AGPL on Siachen: Singh

New Delhi, May 26: India wants the 110-km long actual ground position line (AGPL) on the Siachen Glacier to be authenticated by Pakistan to safeguard the country's interests when disengagement takes place, Army Chief Gen J J Singh said today.

zeenews.india.com

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Gen Naravane repeated exactly what then COAS Gen JJ Singh said in 2005

India wants Pak to authenticate AGPL on Siachen: Singh

New Delhi, May 26: India wants the 110-km long actual ground position line (AGPL) on the Siachen Glacier to be authenticated by Pakistan to safeguard the country's interests when disengagement takes place, Army Chief Gen J J Singh said today.

zeenews.india.com

1. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/siachen-pakistan-siachen-avalanche-army/

2. https://indianexpress.com/article/i...nd-for-troop-withdrawal-from-siachen-glacier/

3. https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/...sation-indian-army-pakistan-758307-2012-05-05

4. https://tribune.com.pk/story/180770/wikileaks-indian-army-poses-as-obstacle-to-siachen-solution

In 2006 JJ Singh himself sabotaged the last effort to demilitarize Siachin. He definitely had a change of heart in 2006. This position has been of the Indian military as an institution, not individual chiefs.

 

[SuperStar20]

You smell like an Indian. @waz .

America does not love India that much to protect it. Nice try though.

Two front war is inevitable for India.

China does not wont to tie his one at the Himalaya LAC. They can kiss goodbye to the forceful unification of Taiwan as long at LAC is active.
With galwan clash, even though they suffered 60+ causality, they maintained silence to avoid public pressure. Status quo works for India.
Two front war with India is out of question. China will not join war for pakistan. Pakistan will not have balls to jump into war with India, during conflict with China. What happens if china agrees to ceasefire after pakistan jumps into war?

 

[nahtanbob]

US intervention here? This is hilarious do you really think the US love India enough to sacrifice all their major cities to Chinese hypersonic glides and besides Aircraft carriers are a bygone era now and would be sunk at will. It can be achieved with mines and under water drones etc etc.. Just because no ships haven't been sunk at will doesn't mean the threat is not real.. As that poster put it they will fight from Eastern Europe which is their most eastern point or lead their charge from there but they will not fight on this parts of the world just not conventionally realistic for them

USA does not have put boots on the ground. They can supply India with weapons directly and through proxies.

Chinese troops in Tibet are sitting duck to American weapons

 

[SIPRA]

With galwan clash, even though they suffered 60+ causality, they maintained silence to avoid public pressure. Status quo works for India.

Here, you are showing a little humility and conservative estimate. They, in fact, suffered 6,000+ causalities.

 

[nahtanbob]

Could be.

But heres the thing, the hindus are caught in a quandary. They presented themselves as a leader of asia against China. If they back down against China, US and rest of the qawal party will lose interest and might not back india fully. If the hindus dont back down, China is going to stomp them.

This leaves them with Pakistan, but since they cannot be seen to be talking to Pakistan for their own domestic audience, they cant even talk to Pakistan. Talking with Pakistan puts india and Pakistan on equal footing which the hindus loathe.

My humble assessment is that hindus will put up a brave face against China and give some positive signals to Pakistan while sponsoring terror acts as well. This will eventually back fire because China now believes india is an attack dog and needs to be leashed. We might see far more Chinese military collaboration with Pakistan than ever before as a Chinese reaction.

india will see more upheaval internally and externally but will it completely break down remains to be seen.

What should be Pakistan's policy? It should arm itself to the teeth. Sadly, I dont see Pakistan leadership doing enough economic reforms to upset the balance of power vis a vis india which is now a possibility considering india's clear 2 front quagmire. But Pakistans policies is another discussion totally.


US intervention will put Russia in a difficult position. China might ask Russia to choose a side either with China or India. Russians are not stupid, they will side with Chinese and possibly try to mediate between india and China. China's support in Kazakhstan and Ukraine is critical for Russia.

It is amazing Pakistanis want to decide what others have to do.

I repeat the US will never intervene here and never have I been more confident about a certain thing... You can bet your house on this

It is American interest to prevent Chinese domination of Asia

 

[SIPRA]

The subject, under discussion, is a non-issue, at least, for the present.

 

[nahtanbob]

China does not wont to tie his one at the Himalaya LAC. They can kiss goodbye to the forceful unification of Taiwan as long at LAC is active.
With galwan clash, even though they suffered 60+ causality, they maintained silence to avoid public pressure. Status quo works for India.
Two front war with India is out of question. China will not join war for pakistan. Pakistan will not have balls to jump into war with India, during conflict with China. What happens if china agrees to ceasefire after pakistan jumps into war?

China has bigger fish to fry ... they have Pakistanis in their pockets thanks to CPEC loans

 

[waz]

You smell like an Indian. @waz .

America does not love India that much to protect it. Nice try though.

Two front war is inevitable for India.

He is of Indian ethnicity yes.
Regardless even the Indians know the US won’t come to their rescue, they have quite the chequered history of leaving their allies in the lurch e.g. Afghanistan.

 

[SD 10]

This vital statement somehow evaded the radars of many all over the Pakistani internet; mainstream media in Pakistan is a lost cause anyway. The same Indian army which had scuttled efforts of Pakistani and Indian political leaderships to reach a settlement on the Siachin dispute (demilitarization) in the past is now expressing a desire to demilitarize the Siachin glacier. Indian military at no cost wanted to vacate from the Siachin glacier (and adjacent territories) given their strategic significance. What has led to this change of heart, reevaluation of the strategic calculus?

- Realization after wargaming scenarios where joint Pak-Sino operations cut off the Indian troops in Siachin?

- Desire to limit the probability of collaboration between the Pakistani and Chinese militaries in a future conflict in the North by eliminating at least one point of friction in the North?

- Reorienting manpower locked up in high altitudes of Siachin to more vulnerable LAC, MacMohan Line borders?

- Economic pressures of sustaining military pressures all along the Northern frontier and Siachin simultaneously?

- A combination of all the above factors?

An interesting thing to note is that many people have forgotten about a statement given by FM SMQ and reported by radio Pakistan back in 2020 when Pakistan was still fuming Indian unilateral actions in IoJK. The PLA had already completed its incursions into territory Indian either held or previously had access to in Laddakh. It is very interesting to note that the said link is nowhere to be found on RP's website anymore. This also coincides with the same time NSA, FM, DGMO, ISI chief were holding some meetings.

Indian army chief might know something we don't.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1291045197804122115

PSyops ........ they will give you all the assurances when China is breathing down on their neck....... All the peace in the world but once the moment is passed they will be back to their original self.....But sadly there are many in higherups who would jump up and down at a chance of shaking these rascal's hands................

 

[nahtanbob]

He is of Indian ethnicity yes.
Regardless even the Indians know the US won’t come to their rescue, they have quite the chequered history of leaving their allies in the lurch e.g. Afghanistan.

You should ask Putin about how he feels about invading Ukraine. For every Afghanistan and South Vietnam there is South Korea, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia. I will let you decide whether India belongs in which camp.

Pakistani army generals have more gray matter to make better decisions than the keyboard warriors on the PDF

 

[Vapnope]

1984 Op Meghdot has allowed India to check Pakistan in any attempt to gain access to Siachin and additionally it threats KKH if India goes into offensive. There was a real concern that India can go to offensive to capture some area and bring Pakistan to table to give up on Kashmir or at least accept the current status quo as permanent.
Now when Chinese can effectively threaten DBO which will stretch Indian mountain division at Siachin to tackle China and Pakistan together, there is a need to find a solution in this situation. Demilitarization of Siachin in this case only favors India and not Pakistan which was the case since 1984.
Since the line is not marked or accepted mutually, whoever captures Siachin, retains it hence the statement from FM Qureshi.

 

[Battlion25]

It is amazing Pakistanis want to decide what others have to do.


It is American interest to prevent Chinese domination of Asia

They won't eat couple of nukes for the gangus tell me something else

 

[SIPRA]

Since the line is not marked or accepted mutually, whoever captures Siachin, retains it hence the statement from FM Qureshi.

What did Qureshi say, and when?