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What does Biden Presidency mean for East Asia?

TPP might be effective against the 2017 China, but not effective against the 2021 China.

The success to contain against the coronavirus has awarded us with more strength ever than before.

China's strength will easily double down in every four years, and the original TPP will not be that useful anymore.

All I can thank is that President Trump (soon to become a former one) to waste four TPP-free years for us.


Based on the prediction made by the IMF:

US 2021 GDP = 21.9 trillion

China 2021 GDP = 16.5 trillion


China's GDP will become higher because the strong RMB and weak USD (overprinted multi-trillions for the pandemic relief and economic woe).


Because those far-right lunatics are absolutely suicidal.

They'd rather sacrifice many of the US high tech companies in order to destroy Huawei at any cost.

They are looking for MAD with China.

However, they got absolutely annihilated by the coronavirus in 2020.

And I doubt that Trump would be capable to launch a second round of economic warfare against China even he got re-elected.

The coronavirus has strengthening China and weakening the US by a lot.

The post-coronavirus will definitely turn the US into an underdog, regardless with Trump or Biden.

The US needs healing because of this unprecedented devastation caused by both trade war and coronavirus, that's why they choose Biden this time.

It is not that they want to be merciful to China, it is because they cannot afford to play the hardball game anymore.

The IMF has been consistently wrong in their economic predictions. Their the last source I’d use for future predictions.

And their already wrong about 2020 US GDP. They have US growing $20.8T for the year when US GDP is already $21.1T after 3 quarters. US GDP will end up around $21.4/5 for the year.
 
LOL @ TPP

You're still masturbating over that? It's gone. Even if Biden wanted to rejoin, he would need 2/3 of votes in US senate to ratify the agreement. He can't even secure half the seats.

Enjoy being China's Mexico.
You are a pessimist.
Biden will continue Obama’s politics: revive Tpp, return to the Pacific, expand national healthcare, social programs, scrap Trump’s America first policy. The Congress will realize the US needs friends and allies to stop chinese imperialism. America needs alternative to chinese factories. Not good when they rely too much on China. You chinese are very quick to blackmail other people.
 
I follow analysts such as Kyle Bass (Hayman Capital) and Leland Millar ( China Beige Book), their estimates of China's real gdp numbers are from 2008-2016 an average of 2% less than official numbers, around 3% less from 2016-2019 whilst 2020 is going to be even worse. Their methodology is quite robust including a broad range of indicators such as tax filings. By those calculations, China's actual gdp is approx 25% lower than reported, which would equal $14.3T - $3.6t = $10.7t up to 2019.

ESvjUpOXgAA_JGq


He belongs to falun gong gang with Guo and other lunatics.
 
ESvjUpOXgAA_JGq


He belongs to falun gong gang with Guo and other lunatics.

Lol he's even worse with money than I thought. Literally -100% performance in his hedge fund vs just parking your money in index funds.
 
You are a pessimist.
Biden will continue Obama’s politics: revive Tpp, return to the Pacific, expand national healthcare, social programs, scrap Trump’s America first policy. The Congress will realize the US needs friends and allies to stop chinese imperialism. America needs alternative to chinese factories. Not good when they rely too much on China. You chinese are very quick to blackmail other people.
Heh

Jeff Bezos will make me the CEO of Amazon. I will marry all of Victoria Secret's models at the same time. I will also be the first human on Mars. I mean if we're just going to fantasize, why stop there?

With the disruption brought on by COVID-19, China will be the only reliable supplier in the next two years. Foreign capitals are flooding into China for safe shelter, not leaving. Vietnam trying to ally with US as part of containment effort will only end in your economic ruin should we decide to take action against you.
 
You are a pessimist.
Biden will continue Obama’s politics: revive Tpp, return to the Pacific, expand national healthcare, social programs, scrap Trump’s America first policy. The Congress will realize the US needs friends and allies to stop chinese imperialism. America needs alternative to chinese factories. Not good when they rely too much on China. You chinese are very quick to blackmail other people.
Are you going to openly admit you are a complete idiot if Biden does not revive it like we all said he wouldn't? Do you dare do it? Keep it simple: a yes or no i am too chicken. There is a condition from our part and that is Biden must succeed having Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia etc.. AGREED to the trade pact. If Biden does not succeed where Obama had failed then you still lose and still have to admit you are a complete idiot. Do we have a deal? Are you man enough to do it? Or are you an eunuch?
 
Trump was hoodwinked by his wacky advisers into commencing a cold war against China hoping Xi Jinping would be intimidated.

Xi Jinping retaliated with China's full might. Coupled with the fortuitous timing of covid-19 and Trump's utter incompetence handling it, China seized an absolute advantage.

Americans noticed that Trump's cold war against China went nowhere, so they voted him out of office. Biden will lick the US's wounds for the next four years, leaving China totally free to crush our enemies especially Taiwan.

In October, Trump even sent the US military to try to find cracks in China's defenses to launch a limited military attack. PLA skirmished with the US military in the South China Sea and East China Sea by tracking US navy submarines and destroying US installed sonars. The end result was Defense Secretary Esper begging PLA to stop humiliating the US.


Chinese and U.S. military chiefs held talks on crisis communication this week, amid heightened tensions between the two military superpowers this year in the South China Sea, with the United States denying a report on a possible drone attack.

According to Wu, Esper denied a media report about the United States studying a plan to attack Chinese islands and reefs in the South China Sea using an MQ-9 drone in the event that the U.S. presidential election was not looking favourable for President Donald Trump.

Esper said the United States “has no intention of creating a military crisis with the Chinese,” according to Wu.

We urge the U.S. to walk the talk, keep its promise, and take measures to prevent provoking China military in the air and sea,” Wu said, adding that China will resolutely counter-strike if provoked with an attack at sea.
 
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Ok you are the hero. Sorry but making stainless steel is basically primitive: burning oxygen and carbon out of iron ore. After burning process you add chrome and other precious metals to make the steel more robust more strength. Nothing special. It’s not like making Icbm. That I learned in high school.
Indeed stainless steel is primitive, even a tiny unknown company like this make them; the chinese are living under the rock:omghaha:
 
Are you going to openly admit you are a complete idiot if Biden does not revive it like we all said he wouldn't? Do you dare do it? Keep it simple: a yes or no i am too chicken. There is a condition from our part and that is Biden must succeed having Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia etc.. AGREED to the trade pact. If Biden does not succeed where Obama had failed then you still lose and still have to admit you are a complete idiot. Do we have a deal? Are you man enough to do it? Or are you an eunuch?
South Korea is not part of Tpp. Update your knowledge. Due to the tension with Japan it’s unlikely the Koreans will be admitted. Not a problem at all for the US to join because is supported by Japan, Vietnam and many other.
Obama waited too long he started too late with the legal process with the Congress.
Time to negotiation with the parliament was too short before he went out of office.
So he stopped.
 
Indeed stainless steel is primitive, even a tiny unknown company like this make them; the chinese are living under the rock:omghaha:

they buy stainless and fabricate it into shapes. They don't make the original metal.


The players in Asian stainless steel is pretty much China and India. Vietnam is nowhere to be found.

And that's just consumer grade stainless, from 1840. Chinese corporations also make maraging steels, titanium alloys and metalworking equipment... and that's just metals.
 
they buy stainless and fabricate it into shapes. They don't make the original metal.


The players in Asian stainless steel is pretty much China and India. Vietnam is nowhere to be found.

And that's just consumer grade stainless, from 1840. Chinese corporations also make maraging steels, titanium alloys and metalworking equipment... and that's just metals.
Those vietnamese are too ignorant. They think they can make quality steel from high school textbooks @Viet ...lol...They don't know we have a few universities dedicated mainly to metallurgy (steel making in particular), such as the University of Science and Technology Beijing...Judging from the level of higher education, it is not surprising for vn to not being able to make stainless steel, actually not being able to make anything involving some technology...
 
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Biden economic policies likely to be kinder on Vietnam: analysts

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Joe Biden, then U.S. Vice President, shakes hands with Vietnam's General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong at a luncheon in Washington D. C. on July 7, 2015. Photo courtesy of Vietnam's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The possible revival of a major trade pact and a less aggressive policy on currency manipulation will benefit Vietnam when Joe Biden assumes the U.S. presidency, analysts say.
Dang Hoang Hai Anh, a visiting professor at Indiana University in the U.S., said Biden, unlike Donald Trump, supports global trade and wants to reduce protectionism, which would likely benefit Vietnam, for whom exports are vital.
Biden last year expressed a willingness to lead the U.S. back into the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which is now the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
In 2017 Trump pulled the U.S. out of the TPP, which would have put around 40 percent of the world economy on the side of the U.S. compared to China’s 18-20 percent.
Other analysts expect Biden to take Vietnam’s so-called currency manipulation less seriously than Trump.
Michael Piro, COO of Ho Chi Minh City-based consultancy Indochina Capital, said though Biden has concerns about the U.S.’s trade deficit with many countries, including Vietnam, he is unlikely to put pressure as Trump has done.
The U.S. under Trump has placed Vietnam on a "currency manipulation watch list" following its rising trade surplus in recent years.
The U.S. was Vietnam’s largest export market, with the value of its shipments rising 24 percent year-on-year to over $62 billion in the first 10 months, according to Vietnam Customs.
The U.S. Treasury Department determined that in 2019 Vietnam’s currency was undervalued by about 4.7 percent against the dollar due in part to government intervention, and the Commerce Department last week slapped preliminary countervailing duties on Vietnamese vehicle tires, alleging they were subsidized by an "undervalued currency."
"The charge of ‘currency manipulation’ is a distinctive tool of the Trump presidency that is unlikely to be used by Joe Biden," Salvatore Babones, an associate professor at the University of Sydney in Australia, said.
He added that Vietnam could easily prevent any such charges by making more data available about its currency holdings and operations.
Nguyen Xuan Thanh, a lecturer at Fulbright University Vietnam, said less pressure in the matter of currency manipulation would lower the risks for the country next year.
Tough on China
Some analysts said Biden would maintain the tariffs that Trump imposed on China and the ongoing bilateral trade tension would likely continue, meaning more companies would seek out Vietnam as a safe haven.
"In terms of policy, Washington will continue to be tough with Beijing regardless of whether the U.S. president is a Democrat or a Republican," Thanh said.
If so, the shift by manufacturers from China to Vietnam will continue as they seek to diversify their supply chain, a trend that began last year.
But Vietnam is not their only destination since other Southeast Asian countries are also taking initiatives to attract foreign direct investment and many companies are also considering returning to their base in North America and Europe.
Analysts expect a Biden-led administration to have a less dramatic effect on stock markets than Trump’s.
Nguyen Quoc Bao, head of the School of Finance at the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, said in the short term the stock market could drop as many Vietnamese expected a victory for Trump.
In the longer run it is likely be stable, and this is not what most investors want since a fluctuating market provides more opportunities for a quick buck, he added.

 
Ok you are the hero. Sorry but making stainless steel is basically primitive: burning oxygen and carbon out of iron ore. After burning process you add chrome and other precious metals to make the steel more robust more strength. Nothing special. It’s not like making Icbm. That I learned in high school.
Ok Can you make aircraft/semiconductor materials/ Processor/Rockets etc etc tha China are making??? and China also making ICBM, Can you build ICBM???
 
Those vietnamese are too ignorant. They think they can make quality steel from high school textbooks @Viet ...lol...They don't know we have a few universities dedicated mainly to metallurgy (steel making in particular), such as the University of Science and Technology Beijing...Judging from the level of higher education, it is not surprising for vn to not being able to make stainless steel, actually not being able to make anything involving some technology...
Ok you win. chinese superpower, the only country on earth that can make stainless steel.
Ok Can you make aircraft/semiconductor materials/ Processor/Rockets etc etc tha China are making??? and China also making ICBM, Can you build ICBM???
I mean consumer goods, the major exports items China exports to America. Not weapons.
 

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