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WE PAKISTANIS WILL LOVE THIS CONSPIRACY THEORY

The question is will the society as a whole realize that it cannot have selective bias toward certain terrorist groups who are able to further political and military objectives against India and Afghanistan?

yes, it requires a concerted effort on the part of the govt, media and the intelligensia speaking with one voice.

as far as the military goes, it was jolted to note that its approval rating amongst the people of pakistan had dropped from a near perfect 100% down to the 60s and 50s. this it cannot afford at any cost, otherwise it will have great difficulty in maintaing the force levels it is so used to. they need to be part of the govt. (read subserviant)
 
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The question is will the society as a whole realize that it cannot have selective bias toward certain terrorist groups who are able to further political and military objectives against India and Afghanistan?

yes, it requires a concerted effort on the part of the govt, media and the intelligensia speaking with one voice.

as far as the military goes, it was jolted to note that its approval rating amongst the people of pakistan had dropped from a near perfect 100% down to the 60s and 50s. this it cannot afford at any cost, otherwise it will have great difficulty in maintaing the force levels it is so used to. they need to be part of the govt. (read subserviant)

Pakistan's top general reins in own Army

Army Chief Ashfaq Kayani has been curtailing the political influence of a military accustomed to running the country.

By Mark Sappenfield | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
and Issam Ahmed | Contributor to The Christian Science Monitor

from the December 12, 2008

Reporter Mark Sappenfield discusses Pakistanis' love-hate relationship with the country's Army.

NEW DELHI; and lahore, PAKISTAN - In recent weeks Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari has repeatedly promised to cooperate with India and uproot terrorism. Yet Ashfaq Kayani is the one who can deliver.

As Army Chief, General Kayani is the man behind the curtain of Pakistani power, controlling an Army that has ruled for much of Pakistan's 61 years. Without Kayani's support, Mr. Zardari can do little against Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group tied to the Mumbai (formerly Bombay) attacks.

One year into the job, Kayani has been a reformer – clipping the Army's interference in politics and mounting offensives against militants in Pakistan's tribal areas.

But today's crisis poses unique challenges: His Army is stretched and in no mood to do its archrival's bidding.

As India applies more pressure, the days ahead will test Zardari, Kayani, and Pakistan's often-inverted chain of command.

"We are starting to see a greater cooperation between the government and the Army," says Ahmed Rashid, a political analyst in Lahore. But, he adds, it is a "fluid situation that is changing day to day."

Thursday, as India announced plans to restructure its counterterrorism forces it also had strong words for Pakistan. In an address to Parliament, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee said Pakistan's arrest this week of several Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders was not enough, demanding that Pakistan turn over 40 people it lists as terrorists.

He also hinted at India's suspicions that the Army, and not the civilian government, is running Pakistan. Though he pleaded with Pakistan to "please act," he added that India had "no quarrel" with the democratic government.

There is some truth in his statement, says Mr. Rashid. "The Army is still in control of foreign policy and policy with regards to India and Afghanistan," he says. "If the Army doesn't want to do something it won't."

That was true in July, when Pakistan's civilian leaders tried to bring the nation's top intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) directorate, under the control of the Interior Ministry. The Army denied the move. The Army has also refused to hand over control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

But the dynamic is slowly changing, Rashid says. Kayani has removed some 3,000 active and retired military personnel from civilian government posts, and he deactivated the political wing of the ISI, which had long been accused of intimidating or blackmailing politicians opposed to the Army.

He continued to subordinate the military to civilian control last week by allowing the disbanding of the National Security Council, an influential panel dominated by the president and military.

Its functions will now be fulfilled by the parliamentary Defense Committee, which made the decision to arrest the Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders earlier this week, Rashid says.

Kayani's purpose is to move the Army back toward its core functions, such as war fighting, and away from political intrigue, says Shuja Nawaz, author of "Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within."

"It appears that the Army is trying to retool itself and is quite happy for the civilians to make the decisions," he says. After the Musharraf years, in which Army generals got rich off real estate and construction deals, Kayani "is convinced that the military needs to return to its professional roots."

He is the product of a different mind-set, says Badar Alam of the Pakistani magazine, The Herald. Kayani served as military secretary to former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, Zardari's late wife, and he attended the Command and General Staff College in Fort Leavenworth, Kan.

"Kayani has a much more liberal outlook" than past Army chiefs, says Mr. Alam.

This extends to his view of militants, he adds. Kayani and his top brass are not of the generation that rose through the ranks by cultivating militant networks – such as the Taliban and Lashkar-e-Taiba – to strike at Indian interests throughout the region.

"Their relationship with militants is not as strong," Alam says.

It is one reason he has been willing to launch the largest attack against militants in Pakistan's history. The Army says it has deployed 120,000 troops into the areas bordering Afghanistan, while the United States has begun to carry out complementary operations on the Afghan side of the border to catch militants in a vise.

In a Pentagon teleconference, Col. John Spiszer claimed the biggest success of the operation was the growing cooperation between forces.

It offers the hope that Zardari will have a free hand in dealing with Lashkar-e-Taiba, should he choose to.

On Thursday Indian Foreign Minister Mukherjee demanded it. He asked Pakistan for a "complete dismantling of the infrastructure facilities available from that side to facilitate terrorist attack [and] banning the organizations."

Pakistan has begun by banning Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the charity that the United Nations designated as a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba Wednesday. The head of the charity, Hafiz Saeed – who also founded Lashkar-e-Taiba – has been put under house arrest.

Yet there appear to be limits to how far the Army is willing – or able – to go. In the hours after terrorists began their rampage in Mumbai, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani offered to send the head of the ISI to India. He later retracted the offer, though it is not clear whether that was the result of public opinion or Army obstinacy.

More significantly, the Army feels it lacks the capacity to take on Lashkar-e-Taiba, which has its roots in Punjab, the heart of Pakistan. "Punjab would not be a small operation," says Mr. Nawaz.

With forces already deployed in the tribal areas and concern about a potential attack across the Indian border, "they can keep tabs on Lashkar-e-Taiba, but they don't want to open that front at this point," says Moeed Yusuf, a Pakistani military expert at Boston University.

"There's a desire to put the house in order one by one," starting with the tribal areas, he continues.

Besides, the Army already feels antagonized by the US, which has been firing missiles at terrorist targets in Pakistan, though there are reports of a secret deal with Pakistan allowing this.

Still, the US is a major ally and donor. India is neither. Says Nawaz: Zardari and Kayani "can't be seen to be folding to Indian demands."

The Christian Science Monitor | csmonitor.com
 
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Tell the Indians not only no, but HELL no. Make a big deal about it. Push the envelope even.

Here's why- most of those targets have likely gone deep. As such they're scared. Reassure them. Reassure your public that Pakistan's institutional elites haven't folded.

THEN, when the dust has settled, maybe even six months from now...nail em'. Do so because it's the right thing to do. Do so because now you've bought the political manuever room. Most of all, do so because now the LeT targets have started to ooze back to the surface.

If need be, go back-channel with the Indians and ask for help in the charade while explaining the plan.

I could be wrong but, were I LeT leadership, I'd be WAAAY underground by now. Unless you can nab these guys tomorrow, you likely can't, right now, nab them at all.

Remember, LeT can't hide forever either. They've an audience that must be periodically played to. Can't do that when in deep cover.
 
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After much thought, and the stress of finals over (why I even chose to engage in such a debate during finals I do not know - should have known better), my apologies S-2 for calling you prejudiced.

Of course I still disagree with the opinions you expressed, but perhaps prejudice was out of line.
 
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After much thought, and the stress of finals over (why I even chose to engage in such a debate during finals I do not know - should have known better), my apologies S-2 for calling you prejudiced.

Of course I still disagree with the opinions you expressed, but perhaps prejudice was out of line.

you're a big man charlie brown!!!
 
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no probs man!

gotta stop blaming others for our mis-deeds IMHO!

Hit it on the head Sir Fatman! Pakistan must wake up and see the light of day. We have inherent weaknesses in our economic infrastructure which are never corrected but glossed over for quick results. When we get back to square one its a blame fest that starts like a piece of meat in a Piranha Pond!!!.Wake up Pakistan and realize that you cannot achieve anything by sitting on your Arses. Get off them and start working in a unified and sensible way to achieve sensible goals first before thinking of becoming the Asian or world ecnomic giant.
WaSalam
Araz
 
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AM, now that we are back on track, I would like to know the basis of your emphatic statement that the military spending is not taking away from the much needed social sector.

The point here is simple - Pakistan can afford to maintain a minimum conventional and nuclear deterrent and at the same time have enough resources left over to significantly improve its social infrastructure. It can do that today. The question is one of good leadership that formulates effective policy and processes and implements them, otherwise a billion saved from the defense budget will just be another billion down the drain.

Is that really true? Our two nations have roughly the same per capita income. Pakistan spends roughly one third of India (just the public expenditure) on military affairs while having one seventh the economy. You don't have higher tax to GDP ratios than us. So there is no doubt military expenses are a bigger part of GDP and a much bigger part of the government budget.

So what is left after the interest payments and defense budget has to be much less. In fact it will be a very low amount. That has to cut into social infrastructure. I don't see how it can be otherwise.

I read somewhere that Pakistan needs to be subsidized to the tune of 25 % of military budget to maintain the current level!

Obviously you are looking towards USA for that $ 15 billion to be invested in the social sector. Doesn't the good leadership argument apply as much to that as to Pakistan's own money? At the very least it shows that your comments were not totally correct.
 
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I am not finding good reliable sources for Pakistan's budget spendings.

Here are some facts from Wiki and the CIA factbook:

Debt servicing 1999: 65% of GDP

Debt servicing 2007: 28% of GDP

Debt servicing 2008: 27% of GDP


Poverty level in 1999: 34%

Poverty level in 2007: 24%

Literacy rate in 1999: 45%

Literacy rate in 2007: 53%

Pak Development programs 1999: Rs. 80 billion

Pak Development programs 2007: Rs. 520 billion

Pak Development programs 2008: Rs. 549.7 billion

Can anyone share the numbers for the health and education spends, their trends, % of GDP etc.?

It seems that the debt servicing and the defense would account for a major chink of the government resources.

Perhaps not a good time for this debate given the heightened activities and raised tempers!
 
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I think that it is the duty of every free born educated Pakistani to educate atleast 2 people and I mean ground up look at the society outside our homes in Pakistan wherever we live (pointing to a majority of Pakistanis) we know of people in our society who are uneducated and can certainly be liberated by our help of an hour or 2 in the afternoon fellow Pakistanis we can always get PhD's only when our citizens learn to value education and understand its beauty.
 
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Vinod,

Pakistan's defence budget for 2008 is Rs. 296 billion, with a total budget outlay of Rs. 2010 billion.

That works out to be 14 percent of the total budget.

The figures you posted above seem correct, though I believe there have been cuts in the development budget and some have speculated that the poverty rate has increased due to the devaluation in the Rupee and inflation.
 
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Vinod,

Pakistan's defence budget for 2008 is Rs. 296 billion, with a total budget outlay of Rs. 2010 billion.

That works out to be 14 percent of the total budget.

The figures you posted above seem correct, though I believe there have been cuts in the development budget and some have speculated that the poverty rate has increased due to the devaluation in the Rupee and inflation.

This sounds pretty reasonable. I read somewhere this figure does not include the pensions and equipment purchase (this would be strange).

Any idea what the % would be if these factors are taken into account.
 
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This sounds pretty reasonable. I read somewhere this figure does not include the pensions and equipment purchase (this would be strange).

Any idea what the % would be if these factors are taken into account.

I can't recall what amount pensions come up to. IIRC, some of the that is also offset by the revenues generated from organizations such as the Fauji Foundation etc.

Equipment purchase outlays in the budget would vary I imagine, depending upon when contracts are inked, how payments are structured etc. Not sure if those are included or not in the defence budget.
 
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