Vietnam Defence Forum

[Viet]

It's a 60 page report and I can't post it here because of copyright. I will translate some of the interesting parts. Be patient.

I did not say VietNam will get the Ticonderoga class, I was talking about something much much more powerful. If VietNam get this weapon, it will definitely be the strongest in ASEAN.

fine, okie pls summarize and post the key points here. you are my hero.

 

[William Hung]

Here I have translated, without needing any help from Google translate, some parts of the report.

[[[Note: Bàiviếtnày là do tớ dịchtừ mộtsố thôngtintừ "BáocáoQuốcphòng & Anninh2015" đượcviết từ nhà phân tích phươngTâycủaBMI.]]]

Hiện nay, Việt Nam phảiđối mặtvới một sốvấnđề bảo mật. Campuchia đãcáobuộc Việt Nam thựchiện hànhvi vi phạmbiên giới, vớicác tranhchấp trên biển giữa hainước còn tồn tại. Và tương tự như thế, Việt Nam cũngcòn căngthẳng tồntại với Trung Quốc chiếmquần đảoHoàng Sa, trongđó Việt Nam tuyên bố là chủ quyền của đảo này. Ngoài ra, cả Trung Quốc và Việt Nam vẫn tiếp tục xây dựng cơ sở ở quần đảo Trường Sa đang tranh chấp.

Chúngtôi dựđoán Việt Nam sẽchi tới USD7.7 tỷcho quốcphòng trong năm 2015. Đây là một sự gia tăng đáng chú ý vì nămngoái nướcnàychỉ chi USD6.7 tỷ choquốcphòng. Tính trung bình, chi tiêu quốc phòng của Việt Nam đã tăng lên từ khi bắt đầu thập kỷ này. Từ đây đến năm 2019, chúng tôi dự đoán Việt Nam sẽ chi tiêu trung bình USD9.3 tỷ cho quốc phòng mỗi năm, và sẽ chi tiêu cho quốc phòng đến USD11.1 tỷ vào năm 2019.

Trong tháng 10 năm 2014, Mỹđã quyếtđịnh chophép bán các vũ khí sát thương choViệt Nam. Mỹđã thực hiện sựthayđổi chính sáchnày để tăng cường an ninh hàng hải cho Việt Nam để đối mặt với các mối đe dọa an ninh từ Trung Quốc. Trong tương lai, Việt Nam có thể mua máy bay tuần tra Lockheed Martin P-3 Orion và vận tải C-130 turboprop.

Quan hệ với Mỹ đã chứng kiến một sự cải thiện đáng kể, và Washington coi Hà Nội như một đồng minh tiềm năng địa chính trị trong khu vực Đông Nam Á. Cải thiện quan hệ với sự huấn luyện với Mỹ sẽ cho Việt Nam khai thác vào ngành công nghiệp quốc phòng chuyên môn của Mỹ trong dài hạn, có khả năng hưởng lợi từ việc cung cấp các vũ khí sát thương.

Mặcdù một số nước phươngTây, như là Mỹ, đangtỏ ra quan tầm càng ngày càng tăng trong việc bán vũ khí cho Việt Nam, nhưngNga đã tiếnhành các bước đểbảovệ thị phần lớn của thị trường quốc phòng Việt Nam. Nga công bố rằng trong năm 2012, Việt Nam là mộttrong nhữngkháchhàng quantrọngnhất của họ. Tuy nhiên, Nga sẽ khôngcó ý định từbỏ vị trí thốnglĩnh thị trườngnày.

Ngacó thểcung cấpmột kếhoạch chi tiếtcho Việt Nam phát triển ngành công nghiệp. Thỏa thuậnNga giúp Việt Nam sản xuất tên lửa chống hạm và các UAV sẽcho Việt Nam ngành côngnghiệp mới với tínhnăng quantrọng.

Hải quân Việt Nam cũngđã đặthàng sáutàu khu trục Gepard 3.9. Haitàu đầutiên đã phục vụ hoạt động, được thiếtkế để chiếnđấu chống hạm. Haitàu sau với khả năng chống tàu ngầm sẽđược đưavào hoạt động vàonăm 2017, và hai tàutiếptheo với khả năng chưaxácđịnh cũng đượcđặt hàng. Các đơn đặthàng tàumới này sẽ cóhệ thống tênlửa phòngkhông hải quân 3S90E Shtil-1.

Trước đây, Việt Nam chỉ đơngiản là mua trang thiếtbị quânsự hiệnđại, thường là từNga, và thường dựavào tíndụng. Trong khi loại hợp đồng này sẽvẫn tiếptục - và trongkhi Việt Nam vẫn nguồnphần lớn cácthiết bị quân sự từNga - Hà Nội đang bắtđầu ápdụng một cách tiếpcận thôngminh hơn và định hướng tươnglai nhiều hơn, tìm kiếm đốitác côngnghiệp quốc tế và đòihỏi các hợpđồng muasắm vũ khí baogồm chuyển giao công nghệ.

Indonesia, Ý, Thụy Điển, Anh, Hàn Quốc và Ấn Độ là quốcgia đã nổilên để trở thành đốitác công nghiệp quốc phòng tiềm năng. Được mua sắm bốn tàu khutrục modular từHàLan, trong đó có hai chiếc tàu này sẽđược xâydựng tại Việt Nam, sẽ cungcấp cho ngành công nghiệp kinh nghiệm cắt-cạnh công nghệ đóngtàu.

Ngoài ra, Việt Nam đã nỗ lực tăng cường hợptác quốcphòng với vài nước châu Âu, như Pháp. Những mối quan hệ được coi như là mộtcơhội để vượt qua các vũkhí chất lượng thấp của Nga/Liên Xô để muasắm vũkhí của châu Âu thườngcoi là hiện đại và đáng tin cậy hơn. Trong tháng 11 năm 2013, Việt Nam vàPháp đã ký một thỏa thuận nhằm tăngcường hợptác quốc phòng, đặc biệt là trongviệc trao đổi đoàn, sự huấn luyện, sự xây dựng côngnghiệp quốc phòng và an ninh hànghải.

Trong Q1 năm 2014, được báocáo rằng Hà Nội đang thươnglượng với Airbus trực thăng, công ty hải quân Pháp DCNS và hãng sản xuất tên lửa MBDA. Các côngty này xemViệtNam là một thịtrường mới đầy thú vị, với nhiều tiềm năng pháttriển trong tình hình an ninh khuvực, cũng như tăng trưởng kinh tế của Việt Nam.

Trong tháng 11 năm 2013, Ấn Độ đã dànhcho Việt Nam mộtgói tín dụng USD100 triệu để mua bốntàutuần tra. Ngoài ra, thỏa thuậnsơbộ đã được thực hiện cho việc bán tên lửa BrahMos cho Việt Nam, đào tạo 500 thủy thủ Việt và việc duy trì nền tảng quân sự thời Liên Xô. Trong Q1 năm 2014, được báocáo rằng Việt Nam đang tìmcách để nângcấp 480 T-72 MBT thuộc về bộphận xe tăng của họ, và thaythế cả 1000 T-55s bằng T-90s nhận được từ Ấn Độ.

Ấn Độ sẽhỗ trợ Bộ Quốc phòng của Việt Nam để thúcđẩy khả năng quân sự. Ngoài hỗtrợ lẫn nhau trong các ngành công nghiệp quốc phòng, Ấn Độ và Việt Nam sẽ cùngnhau sản xuất vũ khí chođấtnước họ và khu vực ĐôngNamÁ.

What do you think of my Vietnamese writing skills? I haven't translated the part about the stronger-than-ticonderoga weapon yet. I'll leave it for next time. Now I'm off to sleep.

 

[Viet]

Here I have translated, without needing any help from Google translate, some parts of the report.

What do you think of my Vietnamese writing skills? I haven't translated the part about the stronger-than-ticonderoga weapon yet. I'll leave it for next time. Now I'm off to sleep.

wow I am impressed. are you vietnamese? no foreigner could have translated in a good manner. how is the paper credibility? here are some key points from the paper:

VN defence budget:
2014: $6.7b
2015: $7.7b
2019: $11.1b

Cambodia:
border violation.

China:
South China Sea dispute.

America:
VN is interested in P-3 Orion and C-130 turboprop.

Russsia:
VN gets help in manufacturing UAV.
4 more Gepards instead of 2, all to be delivered in 2017.

France:
VN in negotiation for helicopters, missiles.

India:
VN in negotiation for T-72 and T-90 tanks.

Indonesia, Italy, Sweden, England, S Korea and India:
VN increasingly defence cooperations

Netherland:
2 (Sigmar?) modular warships built by Vietnam.

Your website link did not say that this next two Gepards will have Shtil-1. It only said that a "VietNam website speculated."

My report said 6 Gepards are ordered (2 already commissioned, 2 under construction and the next 2 ordered). The latest "order" will have Shtil-1. I dont know what that exactly means.

according to the state media "voice of vietnam", we have ordered 4 more gepards. bringen the total number to 6. so the report seems to acknowledge this rumour.

Vietnam purchases two more Russian frigates | VOV Online Newspaper

 

[Carlosa]

I'm not sure about anything bro, I'm just quoting from the report.

It didn't say that the T-72 are from India. It said that VietNam is looking to upgrade its T-72 (480 of them) that are already in its possession.

All the T-55/54 will be "replaced by T-90s obtained from India."

So they are complete tanks from India and not just spare parts. To me, this sounds like VietNam already possess these T-90s from India, or at least some of them are already in possession.


BTW, does anyone know whether the T-55M3 upgrade project was done by IMI or Elbit?

P. S. the report said VietNam might get some weapons that is very powerful, more powerful than AEGIS destroyers, F-16 or Abram tanks. @Viet will love it for sure!




Your website link did not say that this next two Gepards will have Shtil-1. It only said that a "VietNam website speculated."

My report said 6 Gepards are ordered (2 already commissioned, 2 under construction and the next 2 ordered). The latest "order" will have Shtil-1. I dont know what that exactly means.

Yes, the article from Viet is from 2013 and at that point it was just speculation. I did hear a few rumors about the Shtil but didn't want to believe it until something more clear shows up (plus I'm not a big fan of Shtil). But your info mentions a third set of Gepards, now that is really new.

A new ship even more powerful than an AEGIS destroyer? Hmmmm maybe a light helicopter carrier? Its not easy to imagine a ship more powerful than a AEGIS, I assume that you mean a surface ship. I know the Russians are working on some new concepts of destroyers (very powerful ones), but still in the development phase. Is it Russian or Indian?

You realize that we are all suffering while waiting to hear the details, don't you?
Please spill the beans amigo............

Regarding the T-90, sources say that is already deployed in limited numbers, so I'm pretty sure about that, but the surprise here is that they are from India.

So VN has 480 T-72's, interesting, I knew they had some, but that's a nice number. Do you know which one, T-72M1M per chance?

 

[Thao Nguyen]

Already posessed 480 T72
It's just new year now, don't detonate a bomb here man

 

[William Hung]

wow I am impressed. are you vietnamese? no foreigner could have translated in a good manner. how is the paper credibility?

Damn my Vietnamese writing skill is that good?

The report is this one:

Vietnam Defence & Security Report

It will cost you over US$1000 to purchase that report. It was produced by BMI, who specialises in market research for major companies and investors. What is their credibility? well BMI just got purchased by Fitch Group.

Anyway, I actually don't know it's credential. They could be right or they could be wrong, I'm just reporting some of the interesting bits.

here are some key points from the paper:

VN defence budget:
2014: $6.7b
2015: $7.7b
2019: $11.1b

America:
VN is interested in P-3 Orion and C-130 turboprop.

Russsia:
VN gets help in manufacturing UAV.
4 more Gepards instead of 2, all to be delivered in 2017.

France:
VN in negotiation for helicopters, missiles.

India:
VN in negotiation for T-72 and T-90 tanks.

Your Vietnamese reading skills really sucks!! Are you are a real VietNamese? Your translation are nearly all wrong!! Maybe my translation was bad?

 

[Viet]

Already posessed 480 T72
It's just new year now, don't detonate a bomb here man

no, the report says Vietnam looks to acquire 480 T-72s. I think India can sell us some T-72 and T-90 tanks, while we produce the rest under license. the T-90s would gradually replace the existing 1,000 T-55 tanks.

 

[Carlosa]

wow I am impressed. are you vietnamese? no foreigner could have translated in a good manner. how is the paper credibility? here are some key points from the paper:

VN defence budget:
2014: $6.7b
2015: $7.7b
2019: $11.1b

Cambodia:
border violation.

China:
South China Sea dispute.

America:
VN is interested in P-3 Orion and C-130 turboprop.

Russsia:
VN gets help in manufacturing UAV.
4 more Gepards instead of 2, all to be delivered in 2017.

France:
VN in negotiation for helicopters, missiles.

India:
VN in negotiation for T-72 and T-90 tanks.

Indonesia, Italy, Sweden, England, S Korea and India:
VN increasingly defence cooperations

Netherland:
2 (Sigmar?) modular warships built by Vietnam.



according to the state media "voice of vietnam", we have ordered 4 more gepards. bringen the total number to 6. so the report seems to acknowledge this rumour.

Vietnam purchases two more Russian frigates | VOV Online Newspaper

He used to say that he is 1/3 Viet, 1/3 Indian and 1/3 American, well, that's a good combination, those are the new friends of VN now. If he were to have a bit of Russian in him, that would complete the circle, ha ha.

That rumor about a third set of Gepards was dismissed as a mistake, now I think that dismissal was a plot to keep it hidden. Hmmmm very interesting.

Well, VN added $3 billion to the defense budget, that can buy a lot of good stuff.

 

[Viet]

Damn my Vietnamese writing skill is that good?

The report is this one:

Vietnam Defence & Security Report

It will cost you over US$1000 to purchase that report. It was produced by BMI, who specialises in market research for major companies and investors. What is their credibility? well BMI just got purchased by Fitch Group.

Anyway, I actually don't know it's credential. They could be right or they could be wrong, I'm just reporting some of the interesting bits.




Your Vietnamese reading skills really sucks!! Are you are a real VietNamese? Your translation are nearly all wrong!! Maybe my translation was bad?

my vietnamese skill suffers a lot as I am living too long overseas. I speak/write more in german than vietnamese.

 

[Carlosa]

no, the report says Vietnam looks to acquire 480 T-72s. I think India can sell us some T-72 and T-90 tanks, while we produce the rest under license. the T-90s would gradually replace the existing 1,000 T-55 tanks.

REPORT IN ENGLISH, PLEASE........................

 

[Viet]

He used to say that he is 1/3 Viet, 1/3 Indian and 1/3 American, well, that's a good combination, those are the new friends of VN now. If he were to have a bit of Russian in him, that would complete the circle, ha ha.

That rumor about a third set of Gepards was dismissed as a mistake, now I think that dismissal was a plot to keep it hidden. Hmmmm very interesting.

Well, VN added $3 billion to the defense budget, that can buy a lot of good stuff.

black is a guy, you should not trust. no, just a joke of mine. yes, bro, that is nice: $11b defence money is a good starting point.

Vietnam Defence & Security Report
Published 22 December 2014

• 63 pages
• Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
• Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports

License options An Advanced license enables the purchaser to share the research with up to 3 colleagues in the same company.
If you require more than 3 licenses for this report, please contact a sales representative on +44 (0)20 7246 5170.
Full details of our license agreement can be found in our Conditions of use.">

• Standard (Single user)
• Advanced (up to 3 users)

€985.00

• Summary
• Table of Contents
• Product Description
• Our Service

We forecast that Vietnam will spend up to USD7.7bn on defence in 2015. This is a notable increase from the USD6.7bn which the country spent on defence last year. On average, Vietnamese defence expenditure has risen since the commencement of the decade. Up to and including 2019, we expect Vietnam to spend an average of USD9.3bn on defence annually, with defence spending reaching USD11.1bn in 2019.

We have given Vietnam an overall security risk index of 75 for Q115. On average, the country has scored an overall security risk index of 76 for the period February 2009 up to and including Q115. As the discussion below will illustrate, we believe that Vietnam faces a moderate risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. That said, we believe that the country has a low risk of experiencing a major terrorist attack, although it does face a moderate risk of experiencing major criminal activity.

Key Risks To Outlook

Vietnam faces a number of security issues. Cambodia has accused Vietnam of performing border violations, with maritime disputes between the two countries also existing. Similarly, tensions exist with China which occupies the Paracel Islands, which are claimed by Vietnam. In addition, Vietnam continues the construction of facilities in the disputed Spratly Islands, while occasional tensions have existed in the past with Indonesia regarding illegal fishing.

Recent Developments

In October 2014, the United States took the decision to authorise the sale of lethal military equipment to Vietnam. The US has performed this change of policy to strengthen Vietnamese maritime security in the face of security threats from China. Equipment mooted for possible future sale to Vietnam include Lockheed Martin P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft and C-130 turboprop freighters from the same company.

- See more at: Vietnam Defence & Security Report

 

[William Hung]

Already posessed 480 T72
It's just new year now, don't detonate a bomb here man

That's what the report say. They are written by Western analysts. Myself, I dont know if they are correct or not, I'm just reporting what they say.

You will even be more shocked about another weapon that they discussed about.

Yes, the article from Viet is from 2013 and at that point it was just speculation. I did hear a few rumors about the Shtil but didn't want to believe it until something more clear shows up (plus I'm not a big fan of Shtil). But your info mentions a third set of Gepards, now that is really new.

It said the 5th and 6th Gepards "are also on order." and that "the latest orders will reportedly feature.... shtil-1." So I dont know if they mean all 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th will have shtil-1 or just the 5th and 6th will have them.

A new ship even more powerful than an AEGIS destroyer? Hmmmm maybe a light helicopter carrier? Its not easy to imagine a ship more powerful than a AEGIS, I assume that you mean a surface ship. I know the Russians are working on some new concepts of destroyers (very powerful ones), but still in the development phase. Is it Russian or Indian?

I said a weapon that is more powerful than Ticonderoga, F-16s and Poseidon. So it doesn't have to be a ship. The report didn't say VietNam has it yet, but the analysts are "expecting" it.

As for its origin, the report said VietNam could choose either Russia or India for assistance.

You realize that we are all suffering while waiting to hear the details, don't you?
Please spill the beans amigo............

There's only that mystery weapon that is really interesting. The other comments is on kilo submarines, molniya, etc. you all already know about it. I'll just ignore those comments.

Regarding the T-90, sources say that is already deployed in limited numbers, so I'm pretty sure about that, but the surprise here is that they are from India.

The report specifically said "obtained". It could be a typo or they really mean it. They specifically said it is the T-90s variant.

So VN has 480 T-72's, interesting, I knew they had some, but that's a nice number. Do you know which one, T-72M1M per chance?

They didn't say which type They just say T-72.

Btw, what are the chances that the Elbit contract mentioned last year was actually for these T-72 and not the T-55?

no, the report says Vietnam looks to acquire 480 T-72s. I think India can sell us some T-72 and T-90 tanks, while we produce the rest under license. the T-90s would gradually replace the existing 1,000 T-55 tanks.

No, the report said Vietnam already have those 480 T-72. Last January, they received report that VietNam was looking to upgrade them.

Yes it say the T-55 will be replaced with T-90s.

Well, VN added $3 billion to the defense budget, that can buy a lot of good stuff.

All those numbers are their own estimation.
The report doesn't accept the official numbers from the govt, they calculate their own numbers based on the security threat of the country, the economic performance of VN and information from the defense industry.

 

[Carlosa]

That's what the report say. They are written by Western analysts. Myself, I dont know if they are correct or not, I'm just reporting what they say.

You will even be more shocked about another weapon that they discussed about.



It said the 5th and 6th Gepards "are also on order." and that "the latest orders will reportedly feature.... shtil-1." So I dont know if they mean all 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th will have shtil-1 or just the 5th and 6th will have them.



I said a weapon that is more powerful than Ticonderoga, F-16s and Poseidon. So it doesn't have to be a ship. The report didn't say VietNam has it yet, but the analysts are "expecting" it.

As for its origin, the report said VietNam could choose either Russia or India for assistance.



There's only that mystery weapon that is really interesting. The other comments is on kilo submarines, molniya, etc. you all already know about it. I'll just ignore those comments.



The report specifically said "obtained". It could be a typo or they really mean it. They specifically said it is the T-90s variant.



They didn't say which type They just say T-72.

Btw, what are the chances that the Elbit contract mentioned last year was actually for these T-72 and not the T-55?



No, the report said Vietnam already have those 480 T-72. Last January, they received report that VietNam was looking to upgrade them.

Yes it say the T-55 will be replaced with T-90s.



All those numbers are their own estimation.
The report doesn't accept the official numbers from the govt, they calculate their own numbers based on the security threat of the country, the economic performance of VN and information from the defense industry.

I think "obtained" in relation to the T-90 is correct, not a typo, that would be consistent with other sources, same thing for the T-72 where just the quantity was not known.

The Elbit contract could indeed had been changed from the T-55 to the T-72, that makes a lot of sense.

Everybody knows that the official VN defense numbers are just a partial number, I was working with the number of 7.8 billion for 2013 according to other sources, so the number in this report might actually be lower than the real number.

If the mystery weapon is not a ship, it could be a Viet version of the DF-41 anti aircraft carrier missile that China has, that would be very powerful.

Waiting for the info amigo........

I can't imagine the second batch of Gepards being $350 million and not having the Shtil.

So the report talks about VN making the T-90 under license also?

 

[William Hung]

The Elbit contract could indeed had been changed from the T-55 to the T-72, that makes a lot of sense.

That's only if the Elbit contract is for VietNam.
What if that contract was for Cambodia?

BTW, who was involved in the T-55M3 project? if it was IMI, then it means that the Elbit contract is not for the Viet T-55/54.

Everybody knows that the official VN defense numbers are just a partial number, I was working with the number of 7.8 billion for 2013 according to other sources, so the number in this report might actually be lower than the real number.

The report said VN will start to use public tender for weapons procurement so there will be less guessing game for you and Viet.

If the mystery weapon is not a ship, it could be a Viet version of the DF-41 anti aircraft carrier missile that China has, that would be very powerful.

Waiting for the info amigo........

Stronger than that.

I can't imagine the second batch of Gepards being $350 million and not having the Shtil.

It said the latest order will have Shtil. But I don't know whether the "latest order" include the current 2 Gepards under construction or just the future 5th and 6th Gepards.

So the report talks about VN making the T-90 under license also?

No, it didn't say that. But it did say that VietNam and India will collaborate to produce weapons for themselves and for the export market. I don't know which weapons they are planning.

BTW, the original T-90s from Russia wasn't suitable for the hot Indian climate so India had to develop it's own air conditioning system for the T-90s. Plus India had experimented their own sensors/FCS on the T-90s and said their one was more superior than the original Russian sensors, so it would make alot of sense for VietNam to prefer the Indian T-90s.

@Echo_419, @kaku1, @sreekumar, @Water Car Engineer, etc, can you confirm this?

 

[Carlosa]

That's only if the Elbit contract is for VietNam.
What if that contract was for Cambodia?

BTW, who was involved in the T-55M3 project? if it was IMI, then it means that the Elbit contract is not for the Viet T-55/54.




The report said VN will start to use public tender for weapons procurement so there will be less guessing game for you and Viet.



Stronger than that.



It said the latest order will have Shtil. But I don't know whether the "latest order" include the current 2 Gepards under construction or just the future 5th and 6th Gepards.



No, it didn't say that. But it did say that VietNam and India will collaborate to produce weapons for themselves and for the export market. I don't know which weapons they are planning.

BTW, the original T-90s from Russia wasn't suitable for the hot Indian climate so India had to develop it's own air conditioning system for the T-90s. Plus India had experimented their own sensors/FCS on the T-90s and said their one was more superior than the original Russian sensors, so it would make alot of sense for VietNam to prefer the Indian T-90s.

@Echo_419, @kaku1, @sreekumar, @Water Car Engineer, etc, can you confirm this?

The plot thickens, I just asked the source at comcom and they replied that they don't think that the second batch of Gepards have the Shtil, maybe have a beefed up version of the Palma. I told them how then can justify the price of the ship at $350 million. I'll see what they'll reply and post it here.

Yes, very true about the Indian T-90, they use western sensors / fire control system (actually, the Russians had started to buy that for their own tanks also).

Stronger than that.

Darn, this is intriguing man.

How about a heavy bomber? Hypersonic missiles like the Brahmos 2 at mach 5 minimum?

BTW, who was involved in the T-55M3 project? if it was IMI, then it means that the Elbit contract is not for the Viet T-55/54.
?

Elbit was the one that got the contract to upgrade the Viet T-55's.