US weighs dropping Pakistan as an ally

[pakistani342]

Dear the equation is very simple

USA is in Afghanistan, and every bullet / bread and bed is costing dollars.

Is the US investing billions in Afghanistan in the name of Moral duty to democracy ?

Or is to ensure that they make more money in the long run.

Naive are we not ?

If you look at the Vietnam war the reasons the US got stuck went something like this:

1. The US wanted a face-saving way out -- defeat for a superpower marginalizes its credibility -- which some people argue is all what a superpower has -- [lots can be said here on the nature of power but that's a separate discussion]
2. The US, most informed people would say is in Afghanistan, not to defeat terrorism anymore -- there are many more important places from where terrorism stems from that pose a far more serious risk to us: Somalia, Syria, etc. -- but to avoid defeat of the Afghan project which would undermine our credibility -- if a rag tag bunch of mullahs can defeat a super power's project -- what message will that send to Fat-Kim, China in the South China sea and all the rest and sundry.
3. The same argument kept the US stuck in Vietnam
4. Interestingly once the US pulled out -- no doomsday scenario unfolded
5. Today the US and Vietnam have excellent relations

So the best explanation seems to be that inertia, the fear of loosing face, and the bearable marginal cost (Afghanistan costs us what $10 billion a year -- we can kinda afford it to buy time) and similar incentives are what are holding us in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan as a strategic outpost to counter China, Iran, Pakistan, Russia is simply infeasible and lives in the current Afghan elite's imagination -- you know why? Because it is landlocked and all routes go over the supposed opposition. The US intelligentsia fully understands that we have no direct supply route to Afghanistan -- you cannot have an outpost whose supply depends on people you want to have that outpost against.

An interesting anecdote: the great American diplomat Peter Tomsen suggested that if Pakistan blocked the US lines of communication (in the early 2000s) by ground then the US should in turn send transport aircraft with fighter escorts to supply Kabul. This may help in an emergency but pretty much rules out Kabul as some strategic listening post for the US.

If people think that the Pakistanis are unreasonable (and yes there is much merit to the charge) -- try dealing with the Mollahs in Iran or Comrade Putin. Oh there is China, you might be able to supply Kabul via an air corridor over Wakhan -- but then we will have to recognize Chinese sovereignty over the artificial islands in the South China sea. You see Afghanistan does not offer anything substantial on offer in the balance. There is a reason why American veterans of the Afghan project call it the dust bowl. It is a far away land with primitive bearded and turbaned people who have totally aliens customs -- that is how Afghanistan is in the American imagination and it's not far from the truth.

 

[Samlee]

Why it won't work now? Can you elaborate on that ? I am expecting the China card or CPEC! Well China just signalled pretty much publicly its displeasure with Pak policies through BRICS declaration. The fundamental question here is the OBAR vision for China, which will fail when there is instability in the region ( includes Afghanistan) perpetuated by Talis on Pak's backing. So you do the math where China stands on all this.

That BRICS Declaration Also Mentioned TTP Which is Sheltered In Your Country So Don't Get Too Excited.

Secondly Straight After BRICS Pakistan FM Toured China And The Chinese FM Assured Full Support To Pakistan.So hat "Declaration" Is Not Worth The Paper It Is Written On

 

[Clutch]

There you go as I predicted in the weeks prior, the drumbeats have started. Pakistan can either ditch Talis and this policy of using proxies or being in the leagues of rogue states such as NKorea.

@Jungibaaz @Kaptaan @pakistani342

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https://www.ft.com/content/6a107732-99f9-11e7-b83c-9588e51488a0

The Trump administration is considering dropping Pakistan as an ally

Officials familiar with the Pakistan prong of Washington’s new “AfPak” strategy — which involves an open-ended commitment in Afghanistan

Since we are the axis of evil to your glee... can you please take back the 3 million Afghan refugees we have been feeding for over 30 years back?

 

[MultaniGuy]

Good we should dump USA. We don't want to be USA's ally anymore.

 

[PATHAN786KING]

good go ahead

 

[Malik Usman]

Question is who started the Afghan War, was it Pakistan???, answer is no......but on the other hand Pakistan helped Afghanis to free their country from Soviet Union otherwise they could have been living in a stone age..much worst than their current condition.........and then Pakistan helped Afghan Muhajirs to stay in Pakistan and feed them...............and what Pakistan got in return stabbed in Back by Afghanis with joining hands of Pakistan's enemy Indian RAW sending terrorists in Pakistan to do bomb blasts......

 

[Nalini]

no you got it all wrong, US can either keep Pakistan as an ally or lose in Afghanistan (let me be very clear in this they don't have any other choice). what you're seeing right now is just a pressure tactic it worked in the past because of their leverage on Pakistan now it's not the case anymore, in a next few months you'll be seeing them going back to their old statements just like in Obama's time.

and as for you you're going to be very disheartened by that so a friendly advise be prepared.

Pakistan is living in a myth If US cuts off ties with Pakistan, they are doomed in Afghanistan. As soon as Chabahar port is ready, all the arms supply & troops movement will go through this port. There won't be any more requirement of Pakistan. The aid money will be used to pay off transit route charges to Iran. Iran is the winner here

This will also give Iran a strategic edge for lifting sanctions & improving its ties with the US, which you should hear soon. Iran can negotiate for the Nuclear deal to go through, with the U.S.

Good, now Afghanistan can finish the job that Pakistan did not do, Clean uncle sam's shoes.... oh wait Afghanistan is already doing it for Indians too.

Is 'Murica also going to drop Pakistani supply routes running into opiumland? You understand that by dropping Pakistan as an ally the supply route and other niceties are also bye bye?

I am sure India will make up for that LOL

Next time think twice before bluffing.

Afghans are people with Self respect. They want the Americans to be out of Afghanistan. Pakistan thinks the problem of Afghanistan cannot be solved without them. Afghans hate Pakistanis & Americans. They can easily repulse Pakistan's interference but cannot throw the Americans out of the game. Iran is a Shia country & Afghan a Sunni. So even Iran cannot solve the Afghan turmoil. The Gulf countries can only fund proxies for their interests but has no interest in others internal affairs or peace. They only do things to make sure their power is in no threat.

So who do the Afghans think can solve the problem. It's Indians. Once the supply starts from Chabahar, Pakistan will have a multi fold blow.

1. Pakistan will lose all military aid of war on terror from US
2. You will lose almost all trade with Afghanistan
3. Pakistan's continuous blockade which it imposes & blackmails on Afghanistan will stop
4. It would give India access to markets and mineral resources in Afghanistan and central Asia
5. India can use the facility to monitor Pakistani in the Indian Ocean Region as well as Gulf. It could be convenient location for India to monitor activities of already fragile Pakistani Navy & any Chinese build up.
6. It will provide Market for farm products & improve trade between Indian & Afghanistan
7. As Afghan grows & Iran earns additional dollars from this route, both are going to bulldoze Pakistan's tyranny.

Pakistan recorded a trade deficit of 325042 PKR Million in August of 2017. Balance of Trade in Pakistan averaged -32397.59 PKR Million from 1957 until 2017, reaching a record low of -362902 PKR Million in May of 2017.

As Chinese starts getting more inroads into Pakistan, they will dump their products & kill the left out industries & crush the entire exports. Your industries are closing, exports diminishing, Remittances dropping & fast growing Imports.

Imports in Pakistan increased to 521,496 PKR Million in August from 509,727 PKR Million in July of 2017. Imports in Pakistan averaged 72,614.22 PKR Million from 1957 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 533,324 PKR Million in May of 2017.

Remittances in Pakistan decreased to 4600 USD Million in the first quarter of 2017 from 4760 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2016. Remittances in Pakistan had reached an all time high of 5529 USD Million in the second quarter of 2016

America will block all IMF loans & your sad Forex reserves are going to deplete further to couple of months bill payment capability & in coming year it will last for only weeks. They will cut all the imports from Pakistan soon. Not to forget the F16's & American arms which will lie as junk if they refuse to supply spares or service it.

Soon you will have a bomb of Inflation & devaluation. Your currency will slowly go out of control without FDI coming & all the above numbers reversing fast. PKR will cross 110 at the turn of 2018 for sure according to me. If it doesn't cross 115 by the turn 2019 you will be lucky. This will have severe impact on your cost of living. Your oil prices, basic daily needs, cooking oil prices are going to sky rocket in next 2-3 years.

Your maximum export earnings is from US which stands at 17%. Your imports from US is only 4.4%. You have a substantially huge surplus from US trade. This doesn't include the aid you get. You will be doomed if you keep pushing US even further. (Who feeds you is your Enemy)

Your exports to China is only 7.8% & will fall further in coming years with their dumping. Your maximum imports is from China which stands at 30%. You have a huge deficit of almost 14 Billion (forex spending's per year) with China. This doesn't include the huge interests you have to pay on the loans. (Who loots you is your Friend. Silent Smiling Killer)

Your 4th biggest exports is to Afghanistan at 6.7%. Your imports from Afghanistan is 0.8%. Even with Afghans you have a big win in terms of trade surplus. (Go ahead & lose them. It's our win)

The world is running out of money. Many countries are facing economic crisis including America. Even Saudis can disintegrate if oil prices are kept below 50 for another 2-3 years. Losing partners one by one & seclusion from the west & not building ties with the economies which have money will only accelerate your collapse. Somebody has to wake up in Pakistan with this China illusion. China & Gwadar will turn around the economy from the fast rising gloom of Pakistan.

You need to throw your hatred in the back yard, open trade with India & mend all your differences at any cost to bring peace. You need to open trade with even Israel, re-look your China policy to bring investments from America, Japan, Korea & the West rather than losing them by solely depending on just one country who's not even a true country to trust.

Rohingya problem is Myanmaar's, why poke your nose in others affairs to build hatred & lose trade & the few dollars you are getting for the JF17's. There are Hindus targeted & killed in Myanmaar & in many parts of the world including US, we don't get worked up or do terrorist attacks in revenge.

So before you bring India's comparison, let me tell you India has it's own economic slow down & challenges apart from poverty & debts. Our exports are not rising & imports still higher. But compared to Pakistan we are far better off in terms of geo-political alignment. And we are able to invest in other countries, spend on our infrastructure, Bullet trains, Arms & still see our Forex reserves grow steadily. Our problems will only start from 2025 by then you will be finished as I foresee.

All that I said about Afghanistan can slightly change or alter only if Iran's relation with India strains & if Chabahar is blocked. I feel even Russia will support this port route just to have a balance with Chinese treachery.

I have nothing against Pakistan. If there is peace in your country both can grow. Anyway as an economist I can only show you facts which your Gov.t doesn't tell you, but you want to believe otherwise in your great China & other miracles of Allah, Good Luck.

Your Afghan earnings also is going to shift to India soon. So start debating for peace with India if you want to save your country. Post positive topics of India to give it a try. As you sow, so you reap.

 

[Myth_buster_1]

Afghans are people with Self respect.

I stopped reading your post after your first line.

 

[Mr.Cringeworth]

Pakistan is living in a myth If US cuts off ties with Pakistan, they are doomed in Afghanistan. As soon as Chabahar port is ready, all the arms supply & troops movement will go through this port. There won't be any more requirement of Pakistan. The aid money will be used to pay off transit route charges to Iran. Iran is the winner here

if you believe that a country like Iran which is blamed by the US of supporting Taliban will facilitate US than you are not mature enough in your view of the geopolitics of this region. US will never ever in their wildest dream bring their equipment and food through a country which claims to be its bitterest enemy.
and that is to say IF and a big IF the port goes operational in the near future which doesn't seem to.

 

[Mrc]

As soon as Chabahar port is ready, all the arms supply & troops movement will go through this port.

Before writing essays get your facts right...

U think Americans will land in chahbahar and pass through Iran to reach Afghanistan??

Don't be stupid

 

[Nalini]

if you believe that a country like Iran which is blamed by the US of supporting Taliban will facilitate US than you are not mature enough in your view of the geopolitics of this region. US will never ever in their wildest dream bring their equipment and food through a country which claims to be its bitterest enemy.
and that is to say IF and a big IF the port goes operational in the near future which doesn't seem to.

Before writing essays get your facts right...

U think Americans will land in chahbahar and pass through Iran to reach Afghanistan??

Don't be stupid

India has huge trade with Israel- Iran's enemy, but India has close relation with Iran - How & Why? Because India has nothing to do with both their rivalry & our arms purchases helps Iran indirectly counter Pakistan, who's our common enemy. Also India can play a peace broker if there is tension between them.

India has huge oil purchases from Saudi Arabia almost equal to Iran, who is its biggest threat - Why Iran still trades with India? Because Iran needs India to balance Pakistan who dance to Saudi tunes & India is the 2nd largest buyer of Iranian oil. If Iran is foolish like you people to stop its oil exports to India just because we buy from Saudis, Iran will collapse. Apart from China, nobody has the capacity in the world to replace the volume of India

India has huge arms trade with Russia, but off late we have shifted most of our arms procurement to US & west - Why? Because Russia can't help India if China goes to war with us. And in-spite of losing lot of business, Russia wont strain the strong relation & trust built with India. Why? because it's economy is in dire-straits & Russia has few friends. If tomorrow China turns foe or changes colors like it has with everybody, It is only India who has the population & ability to confront China.

Saudi Arabia's Mohd Bin Salman recently has signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Russia to build 16 atomic power stations in the Kingdom. Contracts on infrastructure development & a deal on deliveries of high end Russian weaponry were all inked during the talks. It's revealed there are 25 mutually beneficial investment projects totaling 10 Billion $ is under consideration. The parties are planning to explore joint ventures in construction & upgrading railways. Apart from Syria & Iraq, Russia is a big spoiler in Saudi's plan of annexing countries like Yemen & Qatar. So Saudis are trying to play safe with Russia.

If Russia can make money through Iran's rival Saudi, Iran also has every right to make money through America in areas that doesn't clash each other's interest. So I think, Iran will give supply route to America may be directly or indirectly India would carry all the supplies on behalf of America. That's why Trump has announced India will play the big role to bring peace in Afghanistan. Russia is also supplying arms to Afghanistan & India is also supplying many old Russian arms to Afghanistan.

India will play a big role to broker some peace between Iran & America & lifting many sanctions. And some relation with the US will give Iran a bargaining chip against Israelis & the Arabs. Also India's strong influence in Afghanistan is an asset to stop Chinese from taking advantage after Pakistan. And defeat of Pakistan is a weakening force for China & strengthening force for India, which suits the interests of Russia.

It is very complex geo-politics but in short Iran has only to gain in a US affiance. This would be their ideal opportunity to align with America in some manner to ease its economic pressures by cementing some trade & mutual interests.

Ok for a moment, let me accept your perspective that Iran won't allow the US to use Chabahar. It may be a possibility if any other strong hostility again arises, though I think otherwise. But nobody can stop India's trade with Afghanistan through this route except Iran. It's still a loss to Pakistan.

My question is, are you prepared for such a development, than keep beating the drum America will be doomed without Pakistan in the Afghan war. What if Iran decides to give supply route to America through Chabahar. Where do you stand & how would you address this outcome.

 

[Mr.Cringeworth]

India has huge trade with Israel- Iran's enemy, but India has close relation with Iran - How & Why? Because India has nothing to do with both their rivalry & our arms purchases helps Iran indirectly counter Pakistan, who's our common enemy. Also India can play a peace broker if there is tension between them.

India has huge oil purchases from Saudi Arabia almost equal to Iran, who is its biggest threat - Why Iran still trades with India? Because Iran needs India to balance Pakistan who dance to Saudi tunes & India is the 2nd largest buyer of Iranian oil. If Iran is foolish like you people to stop its oil exports to India, Iran will collapse. Apart from China, nobody has the capacity in the world to replace the volume of India

India has huge arms trade with Russia, but off late we have shifted most of our arms procurement to US & west - Why? Because Russia can't help India if China goes to war with us. And in-spite of losing lot of business, Russia will not want to strain the strong relation & trust built with India. Why? because it's economy is in dire-straits & Russia has few friends. If tomorrow China turns foe or changes colors like it is with everybody, It is only India who has the population & ability to confront China.

Saudi Arabia's Mohd Bin Salman recently has signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Russia to build 16 atomic power stations in the Kingdom. Contracts on infrastructure development & a deal on deliveries of high end Russian weaponry were all inked during the talks. It's revealed there are 25 mutually beneficial investment projects totaling 10 Billion $ under examination. The parties are planning to explore joint ventures in construction & upgrading railways. Apart from Syria & Iraq, Russia is a big spoiler in Saudi's plan of annexing countries like Yemen & Qatar.

If Russia can make money through Iran's rival Saudi, Iran can also make money through America in areas that doesn't clash with each other's interest. If I am not wrong, Iran will give supply route to America may be not directly. India will carry all the supplies on behalf of America. That's why Trump has announced India will play the big role to bring peace in Afghanistan. Russia is also supplying arms to Afghanistan & India is also supplying many old Russian arms to Afghanistan.

India will play a big role to broker some peace between Iran & America & lifting many sanctions. And some relation with the US will give Iran a bargaining chip against Israelis. Also India's strong influence in Afghanistan is an asset to stop Chinese from taking advantage after Pakistan. And defeat of Pakistan is a weakening force for China & strengthening force for India, which suits the interests of Russia.

It is very complex geo-politics but in short Iran has only to gain in a US affiance. This would be their ideal opportunity for Iran to align with America in some manner to ease economic pressures by pursuing trade intrests.

Ok let me accept your perspective that Iran won't allow the US to use Chabahar. It may be a possibility though I think otherwise. But nobody can stop our trade with Afghanistan except Iran. Still it's a loss to Pakistan.

My question is what if Iran agrees to allow American supplies through Chabahar. Where do you stand & how would you address this outcome. Are you prepared for such a development

there is a huge flaw in your logic US is the enemy of Iran the same way Israel it is the same as saying if Israel will bring their defence equipment through Iran. and why would Iran have an enmity with any friend of Israel, Id Est India your relationship with Iran is not the same as Iran's relationship with US where both countries have had physically confronted each other in the past and openly threaten each other.

 

[Nalini]

there is a huge flaw in your logic US is the enemy of Iran the same way Israel it is the same as saying if Israel will bring their defence equipment through Iran. and why would Iran have an enmity with any friend of Israel, Id Est India your relationship with Iran is not the same as Iran's relationship with US where both countries have had physically confronted each other in the past and openly threaten each other.

I totally agree, Iran will not allow Israel to use Iran's land route. But not necessary with US. If they discuss the terms & both agree, it can happen. US is the key between Iran, Israel, Saudi & the Arab countries. So I won't rule out this possibility.

In-fact they would have gone for this option, If Shia's were in majority in the Muslim world or if Iran or Shia countries held majority of oil reserves. It is just the money which keeps the Americans on the Saudi side because they have the biggest oil reserve. The problem is if the US shifts to Iran's side, Russia will gleefully jump to the Arab side. That's what Russia would be long wishing for, because the Arabs have un limited oil money & hold most Oil Reserves. Russia being a oil export country will start rigging up the oil prices with this influence, to mint money so as to reclaim the undisputed Superpower title.

This would be doom for America with another enemy like China. So America has kept Iran at arms length always. But they will find a way to work around this Afghan issue through Iran, because it will bring some peace at Iran's neighborhood.

The easiest way out to solve this issue is to bring in India, because India is the only country which has relations with all rival countries & only India can broker a plan between the 2 enemy countries due to it's strong & friendly relation with both for everybody's benefit & peace.

I won't go much in detail. Go through the video above. I am only trying to warn you Pakistan is going to suffer. I have nothing to lose if people of Pakistan don't take my posts seriously. After a long day I don't have to come home & waste the rest of the evening fighting or arguing. I am doing what I love that's study of geo-politics & say what my conscious says in spite of Pakistan being our enemy country. If you are not bothered as to what can happen, you people will be the loser. So good luck.

Remember Trump is in power & Ajit Doval is now given the charge for planning the strategies of the Sub-continent. Doklam was one of the sample. So there will be many strategies for Afghanistan too. America need not be directly involved with Iran, but can find a way for the supplies to go through & chalk out a game-plan which serves everybody's intersts.

 

[TMA]

Will Afghanistan turn into Switzerland overnight when the Talis stop fighting? No! of course there are major issues affecting the country regardless of the Talis but the number 1 issue at hand that is fundamental to all is undeclared war through Talis. You stop Talis by pressuring Pak.
Pakistan's mood swings vis-a-vis Afghanistan won't be relevant when we get the breathing space to create strong Afghan state that can stand to Pakistan. That is the time when Pakistan will deal with the Afghan state and not via proxies, in other words Pakistan is not dealing with the Afghan state because it deems her weak and this unconditional commitment by the US provides us that opportunity to create one.

Remember who started this aggression? All Afghanistan had to do was to swallow her arrogance and accept Pakistan. But she did not ...

 

[Mr.Cringeworth]

I totally agree, Iran will not allow Israel to use Iran's land route. But not necessary with US.

this is where you're wrong Iran has never had any military confrontation with Israel while they have had a couple of military confrontation with the US,quite a while ago they made an American navy ship to surrender and made everyone aboard there POW's,that's why it will never allow that if you want the public opinion in Iran you can ask any Iranian member here on PDF.