US wants China's support on sanctions against North Korea

[terranMarine]

He'll probably last as long as his generals, I believe this' where the power lies, and the military can suppress the populace or the generals are supporting him. Don't forget in NK, the military is in every spectrum of the society and probably the most powerful in the world when it comes to controlling their people.

However in China's perspective and securities this is not good enough if NK does have the nukes. China must find a way, and speedily too, to change this equation because NK, increasingly, is getting too 'crazy'.

As long the military have enough to eat they will keep supporting their new leader and keep suppressing the population. There's not much Russia or China can do about that. Once NK can built their own nuclear ballistic missiles they will just use it for negotiation with USA, using the same strategy as Kim Jong-il.

 

[Fanling Monk]

As long the military have enough to eat they will keep supporting their new leader and keep suppressing the population. There's not much Russia or China can do about that. Once NK can built their own nuclear ballistic missiles they will just use it for negotiation with USA, using the same strategy as Kim Jong-il.

Actually there are many things China can do and stopping the shipment of food is one of them, albeit it will create chaos in the border. I'm not being hawkish by calling regime change in NK. I think China is entitle and has the responsibility to install, if she can, a more friendly and benign government in the North for every body's sake. Don't forget this crazy government can hold China hostage by threatening to bomb Beijing when the time come.

 

[terranMarine]

Actually there are many things China can do and stopping the shipment of food is one of them, albeit it will create chaos in the border. I'm not being hawkish by calling regime change in NK. I think China is entitle and has the responsibility to install, if she can, a more friendly and benign government in the North for every body's sake. Don't forget this crazy government can hold China hostage by threatening to bomb Beijing when the time come.

NK won't threaten their closest ally. They must be very crazy if they even dare to think about it. But if we join the Americans and stop shipping food to them then they might think about threatening China. We shall not betray an ally because of this "fear". China doesn't want chaos next door and want to keep it that way. The ones you call crazy who use nukes to make threats are Kim's family and the generals. What we want is that NK reform and get back to the 6 parties talk. NK has to give up their nuclear weapon research for more food and other aid.

 

[Fanling Monk]

NK won't threaten their closest ally. They must be very crazy if they even dare to think about it. But if we join the Americans and stop shipping food to them then they might think about threatening China. We shall not betray an ally because of this "fear". China doesn't want chaos next door and want to keep it that way. The ones you call crazy who use nukes to make threats are Kim's family and the generals. What we want is that NK reform and get back to the 6 parties talk. NK has to give up their nuclear weapon research for more food and other aid.

Actually the general are not crazy as I implied and I think they are using nukes to blackmail the US alliances. It's just the way the go about it is very irrational and scary. Frankly if they can give up nukes I think every body should help them, but can they be trusted. That's the point, they have been promised many times and then went back on their words. It seems like they have different people in charged at different time.

Last I heard they are have problems in harvesting on the SE and many deaths as the result.

In fact China is helping the US now in talking with NK but I'm skeptical about any long term solutions though. It just like the same talks over and over again for the past decade. (sign)

 

[shuttler]

NK won't threaten their closest ally. They must be very crazy if they even dare to think about it. But if we join the Americans and stop shipping food to them then they might think about threatening China. We shall not betray an ally because of this "fear". China doesn't want chaos next door and want to keep it that way. The ones you call crazy who use nukes to make threats are Kim's family and the generals. What we want is that NK reform and get back to the 6 parties talk. NK has to give up their nuclear weapon research for more food and other aid.

They have deliberately built their missile/satellite launch pad close to our border!

Sohae Satellite Launching Station | Facilities | NTI

 

[terranMarine]

Actually the general are not crazy as I implied and I think they are using nukes to blackmail the US alliances. It's just the way the go about it is very irrational and scary. Frankly if they can give up nukes I think every body should help them, but can they be trusted. That's the point, they have been promised many times and then went back on their words. It seems like they have different people in charged at different time.

Last I heard they are have problems in harvesting on the SE and many deaths as the result.

In fact China is helping the US now in talking with NK but I'm skeptical about any long term solutions though. It just like the same talks over and over again for the past decade. (sign)

It would be a dangerous move for China if we stop helping them. They use it to blackmail the Americans only and know what will happen if they attack SK/JP/USA. NK won't risk it and i doubt Beijing will push NK into a corner cos hell could break loose. I don't see a solution for the long term and that's a sad thing for the NK people living in such a state. Lets hope that this Kim is more reasonable than his father was.

 

[Fanling Monk]

It would be a dangerous move for China if we stop helping them. They use it to blackmail the Americans only and know what will happen if they attack SK/JP/USA. NK won't risk it and i doubt Beijing will push NK into a corner cos hell could break loose. I don't see a solution for the long term and that's a sad thing for the NK people living in such a state. Lets hope that this Kim is more reasonable than his father was.

If he's in fact is in charge, then he's clearly not more reasonable than his father as shown from the recent events. Good night.

 

[terranMarine]

They have deliberately built their missile/satellite launch pad close to our border!

Sohae Satellite Launching Station | Facilities | NTI

"Additionally, this location is obscured by surrounding hills from direct observation by air or sea. "Extreme tidal fluctuations and extensive mud flats" prevent ideal seaborne observation; while the site's geographic position close to the Chinese border make airborne observation by U-2s or Cobra Ball recon aircraft problematic."

Probably not to threaten China but rather taking advantage of what i just quoted from the article. However i do share the concern you guys are having. I don't like the idea either of a nuclear power neighbor that goes threatening around if no food is going their way.

 

[shuttler]

"Additionally, this location is obscured by surrounding hills from direct observation by air or sea. "Extreme tidal fluctuations and extensive mud flats" prevent ideal seaborne observation; while the site's geographic position close to the Chinese border make airborne observation by U-2s or Cobra Ball recon aircraft problematic."

Probably not to threaten China but rather taking advantage of what i just quoted from the article. However i do share the concern you guys are having. I don't like the idea either of a nuclear power neighbor that goes threatening around if no food is going their way.

the problem is if us, rok, japan or nato want to launch a strike on the site, there is a chance the bombs or even schrapnels will go over the border. What can China do when it happens? Stay neutral?

 

[terranMarine]

the problem is if us, rok, japan or nato want to launch a strike on the site, there is a chance the bombs or even schrapnels will go over the border. What can China do when it happens? Stay neutral?

That's exactly what i'm saying, taking advantage of the border. Good question what will China do if these countries decide to destroy the launch site?

 

[Fanling Monk]

Despite the bellicose rhetoric by the US alliance I do not think they will bomb any nuclear sites. For SK it's too close for comfort. If there is any hint of such intentions, both China and Russia will definitely raise the strongest oppositions, especially the former.

By looking at the recent developments I just don't see any changes of hearts with this irrational bunch in the North. A peaceful or limited collateral damages regime change initiate by China is the only long term solution I can find.


http://news.yahoo.com/china-north-korea-ties-hit-rough-weather-132407604.html

"The context of what is happening now between China and North Korea is this: Since Kim Jong Il died, the Kim Jong Un regime has been unfriendly to China," An expert comments


It's very puzzling the way they treat their long term ally and benefactor.

 

[shuttler]

That's exactly what i'm saying, taking advantage of the border. Good question what will China do if these countries decide to destroy the launch site?

Despite the bellicose rhetoric by the US alliance I do not think they will bomb any nuclear sites. For SK it's too close for comfort. If there is any hint of such intentions, both China and Russia will definitely raise the strongest oppositions, especially the former.

By looking at the recent developments I just don't see any changes of hearts with this irrational bunch in the North. A peaceful or limited collateral damages regime change initiate by China is the only long term solution I can find.


China, North Korea ties hit rough weather - Yahoo! News

"The context of what is happening now between China and North Korea is this: Since Kim Jong Il died, the Kim Jong Un regime has been unfriendly to China," An expert comments


It's very puzzling the way they treat their long term ally and benefactor.

DPRK is trying to burn the hands that feed her. They could be a long term liability. Neither we nor Russia would like to see DPRK has nuke. The thing is jap, us and rok are also provocative as well. The alliance of China and Russia is imperative. They need to stop any further step to be proceeded by DPRK for their nuke. This is the condition no.1. If DPRK keeps quiet, concentrates on its development of its country, puts everything that appears as aggressive on hold and has this as swap deals for food or other supplies, this will be perfect. Then ROK, Jap nor USA will have no excuse for their military provocation on their side. Acts of provocation include the procurement/development of advanced weapons by ROK. If they (RoK ...etc) do not abide by this rule, China, Russia and DPRK will strengthen their allliance.

The prime objective is to help DPRK develop into a self reliant country. It has to state very clear none of the parties has the intention to annihilate DPRK or RoK. The 6 parties need to pledge for these. Whether the 2 sides will unite or remain separated as 2 countries peacefully, it is up to the volitions of their respective government and people.

 

[terranMarine]

I agree with Fanling Monk that they won't go strike the launch site, it is just too close to China and SK. SK don't want nuclear dust to spread in their own country plus China and Russia won't stay quiet either.

After reading the yahoo article you would wonder what NK is thinking. The unfriendly attitude and the fishermen incident does seem like they are trying to tell us they won't be reasonable enough to listen what Beijing wants. NK knows too well how important it is to have their own nukes and use it to get what they want (food, oil, etc..)
China and Russia won't be able to convince them to give that up otherwise they would have dropped the development a long time ago. Even if they promise to stop they just restart the whole thing, can't trust these guys.

 

[shuttler]

^ if DPRK insists playing rough overturning the table on everyone, then sorry, enough is enough! We have given DPRK more than a father could have given to his son. We have to prepare for the worst scenarios: influx of N Koreans by tens of thousand and the bombs that may go astray landing on the wrong side of the border!

 

[lem34]

China should and will act in it's own interests. Not American interests.