US should give up the idea of cold war 2.0 with China. Because there will never be a good end for it

[Zsari]

Reasons why US should give up the new cold war with China. My personal views. Not from expert.

1, Hard to win the new cold war for US.

Soviet Union was just a military super power, far from economic/technology/science power. It's a natural resources supplier in global market, not so different role than Saudi Arabia. Soviet Union is an overrated country. Soviet Union's failure gave US too much credit and confidence on their ideology(democracy and freedom) and too much war dividend, which formed today's reckless and arrogant US. Honestly to say, US doesn't deserve all these.

When US started the cold war with Soviet Union in 1947, 90% Chinese were illiterate. Today the number of annual STEM graduates in China is more than US+EU+India+Japan combined( No need to suspect China's education quality if you know how Chinese students have been dominating all kinds of international competitions). China alone created an economic pole that in many fields can almost compete with rest world. "China VS other countries" status occurs in many economic items. We know US is luring or forcing its allies to decouple China. Like how it tried to isolate Soviet Union. Put the slim feasibility aside, things are very different this time. It is not only China is isolated from "other countries", also "other countries" is isolated from China. It will not be like "Soveit Union loses, US wins" any more. It would be both sides lose. And China will survive because China's huge talents pool and domestic market can sustain its progress technologically and economincally. One thing is for sure, compared to China, US has weak edurance to bad economy.

2,China will never surrender like Soviet Union did.

As I said, Soviet Union's economy had never been in a good position. Before their country collapsed, most Soviet Union people believed only west model could save them from the dire economy. Some of them even believed US was to help them, as VOA broadcasting narratives described. It is not possible to believe Chinese people would have same feeling toward US when their country is in prosperous and likely to be biggest economy in near future while the US is trying everything to stop all of these. US doesn't have any moral ground to start cold war 2.0, not even the fake ones in the cold war 1.0.

When Trump started the trade war, the most popular comment from Chinese netizens was "赢了吃肉，输了吃屎”（Eat meat if we win. East shit if we lose). There is no decent surrender for big scale countries like China and Russia. Surrender from a cold war is no better than surrender from a hot war. The difference is, the former is one side loss and one side win, and the latter is two sides loss. Personally to say, I think Soviet Union's fall is the most humiliating loss in the human history. It surrendered without firing a single bullet to its enemy. Even thought Soviet Union was a military super power, it never tries to use its power to make an adventure to break the iron curtain. Just silently watched the west became richer and richer. Never try to stop or disturb their development.

So far China is very self-restrained to all US anti-China measures. Which is quite different from Soviet Union's drastic reactiions when the cold war just started. It means China is far more confident, patient and rational than Soviet Union. Is US hoping China will follow the "US wins, China loses" pass? Let's say it this way, if the worst scenario happens, if China falls, China will drag US to fall together. China has the economic power and military power to do that. And Chinese people will support that.

The US doctrine on destroying any potential peer competitor would not change regardless. Self-restrain would only be taken as weakness.

 

[Beast]

The US doctrine on destroying any potential peer competitor would not change regardless. Self-restrain would only be taken as weakness.

Self restraint do helps. Then why would US still enforce one China policy and they will not recognised Taiwan independent? Even US do self restraint. They could have taken Meng to US and jail her for life but didn't. Becos that is China red line.

China of cos, did not provoke US so much by restraint. China could have really send a fleet to patrol at coast of LA and claim freedom navigation but we didn't, not becos we can't as some genuis claim @aziqbal

There are some red line and restraint which are obvious.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

the US comes closer to you with more military equipment by the days, I admire your confidence.
Unless Trump comes back or another fanatics civil war is not going to happen.

The current atrophied manufacturing base of the US cannot sustain them to win an arm race against China.

Unless you want them to fight an unprepared war against China in its backyard.

 

[S10]

China should focus on economic reforms, expanding its infrastructure and improving living condition of its people. Everything else will fall into place.

1. Made in China 2025 needs to be pushed more than ever.

2. Transition from a commercial housing model to a mainly public housing model.

3. Reduce wealth inequality

Soviet Union collapsed from within, not from any US action.

 

[kankan326]

Soviet Union was built on an ideology, once an ideology fails no amount of military action can save it

Ideology was not the basis of Soviet Union when the Communist International was dissolved in 1943

The US doctrine on destroying any potential peer competitor would not change regardless. Self-restrain would only be taken as weakness.

Silent enemy is more formidable, especially when the enemy does have ability to attack.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

That's why Soviet Union was a coward. During China's Three Kindoms period, the weakest kindom, Shu was the most aggressive one. Because Shu knew time was not on its side. It had to constantly invade Wei Kingdom to interupt its development. Soviet Union was in the same position as Shu was. It should be more bolder to start some conventional wars. And I really doubt US would start nuke war with Soviet Union even if Soviet Union invaded Western European countries.

Soviet Union did not believe it was capable of winning and was scared of war for a very good reason: Nazi Germany only had 50% the GDP and population of Soviet Union in 1941 and they still inflicted devastating losses. They did not dare fight US with 40% of global GDP in 1950.

Soviets were still militarily vulnerable until 1970's because they did not have enough ICBMs in the 1960's. In 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis, they only had 76x R-16 missiles vs. 170+ missiles. It was only in 1974 with launch of the Delta submarines and R-29 missiles that they could truly deter a full US attack, but by then it was too late for the Soviet economy.

 

[Viet]

The current atrophied manufacturing base of the US cannot sustain them to win an arm race against China.

Unless you want them to fight an unprepared war against China in its backyard.

You have a misconception of US strength. I once worked for US company. It’s not manufacturing.

 

[MH.Yang]

China is build on support of people.

The Chinese don't care about ideology because we are a homogeneous country, and our country foundation is the nation. Therefore, the propaganda methods used by the USA against the USSR have no effect on us.

 

[Azadkashmir]

soviet union survived off usa tax payers money behind the scenes and it started to dry up.
china survived off usa transfer of technology and western markets and then turned from chinese oliver twist to chinese steriod panda beast.

 

[kankan326]

Soviet Union did not believe it was capable of winning and was scared of war for a very good reason: Nazi Germany only had 50% the GDP and population of Soviet Union in 1941 and they still inflicted devastating losses. They did not dare fight US with 40% of global GDP in 1950.

Soviets were still militarily vulnerable until 1970's because they did not have enough ICBMs in the 1960's. In 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis, they only had 76x R-16 missiles vs. 170+ missiles. It was only in 1974 with launch of the Delta submarines and R-29 missiles that they could truly deter a full US attack, but by then it was too late for the Soviet economy.

1974 was not too late. US was exhausted by the Vietnam war. Anti-war sentiment was spread whole country. Perfect timing for Soviet Union to start war in Europe.

 

[somsak]

US will not win cold war with China because , unlike Soviet citizens, Chinese are capitalists by nature. Eventhough US has good capitalists, US lacks an army of workers. What would happen if China-US partnership end? China would continue to dominate the supply-chain of neccessary items, bar high end CPUs. In Battery, and AI, China has a chance to win competition with US in open market heads on. This means that though China will lost High tech CPU industry, other high tech industry may survive, and thrives. This means that China will have money to spend on CPU technology. The world would go back to the age where high-tech items are either very expensive and high end, or cheap low-end. The contrary is also true for Rare earth processing technology, where US lacks behind China. Therefore, US-China cold war competition will be on capitalistm, open market, and may take a century before the true winner emerge. In other words, its a marathon cold war.

 

[Saudang]

lot of circle jerk among happy Chinese in the thread ..

just to burst few bubbles around how USSR was not an economic and science power --

Soviet economy in 1989 was $2.66 trillion. Inflation adjusted number will be 6 trillion now, assuming it does not grow for 30 years

Per capita income was $5800 in 1989. it will be $13000 per capita in 2021, inflation adjusted. still higher that current china ..

On scientific achievements, they were among the most innovative countries. they send rocket to space and people into orbit, when Xi was still in his diapers..

 

[Apollon]

There wont be a war. Western countries will isolate from China and vice versa.

 

[kankan326]

lot of circle jerk among happy Chinese in the thread ..

just to burst few bubbles around how USSR was not an economic and science power --

Soviet economy in 1989 was $2.66 trillion. Inflation adjusted number will be 6 trillion now, assuming it does not grow for 30 years

Per capita income was $5800 in 1989. it will be $13000 per capita in 2021, inflation adjusted. still higher that current china ..

On scientific achievements, they were among the most innovative countries. they send rocket to space and people into orbit, when Xi was still in his diapers..

Ruble exchange rate was manipulated by government. The real Ruble exchange rate in black market was much lower than the official one. Soviet Union focused most resources on military industry. Rockets were part of it.

There wont be a war. Western countries will isolate from China and vice versa.

Greece would bankrupt again if so.

 

[letsrock]

Soviet Union intitially started very well. It bought in various nationalities with respect and one should not discount its stunning vicotry against nazis without which slavs would have been literally slaves. even now Russia which inherited soviet union acts like its own boss. They may not be as wealthy as western nations but they are no one's door mat.

Having said that one reason why it collapsed is increasing imposition of russian on other nationalities and reduction of spirit of solidarity. This led to disillusion in other countries.

Soviet union did not collapse in to some anarchy. it just dissolved in to basic language based nationalities.