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US & Pakistan Dispute and Tensions over Haqqani group

Biggest Loser?

Are you sure you've thought this through?

I mean from the tone and the speeches we've all read/heard in the past few days, it seems that the American intend to come into Pakistan...ie. Hit the Haqqanis in N.Waziristan

No one's going to come into North Waziristan, they aren't even able to control the eastern Afghan provinces. These are only pressure tactics from the US to take action against the Haqqanis.

WTF makes you guys think that the Americans are simply going to fold up and leave Pakistan be? Do you really think the Americans will forget Pakistan's duplicity?

Because they could have done it after the OBL raid (with full support of the American public & the world community) but didn't. All of these are empty threats.

At least at this point of time, Pakistan has not been able to secure its importance from a Geo-political perspective....which in my opinion should have been top priority all these years...

Pakistan is vital to the US's exit strategy in the region, & will continue to be so.
 
Don't worry about Pakistan & Afghanistan, they are here to stay. The US is an outsider, & without Pakistan's support, will have no influence in the region, meaning it won't be able to achieve its geopolitical strategic interests. The biggest loser is the US, & war is only a temporary phase for a nation.

A "Defanged" Pakistan and Afghanistan are here to stay.....

ie. if they decide to face America head on...a most unlikely scenario given your leaders have a habit of rolling over when faced with such geo-political conundrums
 
A "Defanged" Pakistan and Afghanistan are here to stay.....

ie. if they decide to face America head on...a most unlikely scenario given your leaders have a habit of rolling over when faced with such geo-political conundrums

Neither the US will take Pakistan head on (or vice versa). Nations often go through a turbulent period in the shape of a war, but its only a temporary stage. But the US is perceived as an 'occupier', an 'outsider' with vested interests, hence they will be the biggest losers if they burn their bridges with Pakistan.
 
No one's going to come into North Waziristan, they aren't even able to control the eastern Afghan provinces. These are only pressure tactics from the US to take action against the Haqqanis.

As of now it seems the Americans consider N.Waz the problem...not E.Afghanistan


Because they could have done it after the OBL raid (with full support of the American public & the world community) but didn't. All of these are empty threats.

The OBL raid itself should tell you the impunity with which Americans can attack Pakistan...

If Pakistan was so key to achieve US objective, they would have looped in the PA or ISI


Pakistan is vital to the US's exit strategy in the region, & will continue to be so.

Personally I think this is true...But seems the Americans have other plans....

Dont assume that the Americans only came with a Plan A...
 
Neither the US will take Pakistan head on (or vice versa). Nations often go through a turbulent period in the shape of a war, but its only a temporary stage. But the US is perceived as an 'occupier', an 'outsider' with vested interests, hence they will be the biggest losers if they burn their bridges with Pakistan.

They not gonna try and occupy Pakistan.. Just hit NW a little harder with some AF assets and some sequels of Op Geronimo..
 
Neither the US will take Pakistan head on (or vice versa). Nations often go through a turbulent period in the shape of a war, but its only a temporary stage. But the US is perceived as an 'occupier', an 'outsider' with vested interests, hence they will be the biggest losers if they burn their bridges with Pakistan.

Thats an optimistic view and you're well entitled to it....

I feel that this is a time for Pakistan to make a strategic decision...
and I think Pak will go after the Haqqanis which is what the Americans want....frankly...this will be a win-win for both and will wipe away any bruises from the past...

Nevertheless...the PA calls the shots in these matters concerning Pak...hence the prudence of your Generals will define what happens from here on...

But I will say this...your view and mine are obvious speculations.
 
They not gonna try and occupy Pakistan.. Just hit NW a little harder with some AF assets and some sequels of Op Geronimo..

Occupying is the second stage, having the boots on the ground is the first one. And I can assure the fear mongers & the conspiracy theorists, it won't even reach the first stage. America is not so thick to act so rashly. All these statements are meant for public consumption, consumption of the Senate/Congress, & putting pressure on Pakistan to act against the Haqqanis. If Pakistan don't act, I doubt much will change from the American side.
 
Occupying is the second stage, having the boots on the ground is the first one. And I can assure the fear mongers & the conspiracy theorists, it won't even reach the first stage. America is not so thick to act so rashly. All these statements are meant for public consumption, consumption of the Senate/Congress, & putting pressure on Pakistan to act against the Haqqanis. If Pakistan don't act, I doubt anything will change from the American side.


What in your opinion would deter the Americans from attacking the tribal belt?

Losing Pak as an ally? Anti-Americanism?

Hasnt that been ongoing for a while now?
 
Another thing to note is that it took the US like 3-4 days to say "They did it". It even takes more days for India to jump to conclusions.
 
What in your opinion would deter the Americans from attacking the tribal belt?

They are already attacking North Waziristan with their drone strikes, however, they have played their card, & that's all they can do. Getting into their boots inside Pakistan will be complete suicide.

Losing Pak as an ally? Anti-Americanism?

Hasnt that been ongoing for a while now?

Anti-Americanism has risen, but Pakistan is still the most important country for the US exit strategy & the end game in Afghanistan, & they can't control Afghanistan without Pakistan's support.

---------- Post added at 01:35 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:33 AM ----------

I'm going to say this again: if the US really wanted to ever get its troops inside Pakistan, it would have been after the May 2 OBL raid. It would have had the backing of its people, & most of the international community. But it didn't. We can all be a 100% sure that such a scenario will not be taking place.
 
They are already attacking North Waziristan with their drone strikes, however, they have played their card, & that's all they can do. Getting into their boots inside Pakistan will be complete suicide.

A bit far fetched

---------- Post added at 01:35 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:33 AM ----------

[/COLOR]I'm going to say this again: if the US really wanted to ever get its troops inside Pakistan, it would have been after the May 2 OBL raid. It would have had the backing of its people, & most of the international community. But it didn't. We can all be a 100% sure that such a scenario will not be taking place.

And I can be 100% sure that none on this forum are fortune tellers...including yourself maisar
 
I have told this so many time, when they will attack it will be air war not boots. They are going to attack not to capture but to destroy. Trust me if it happens, PAF will do nothing.

I see this coming in days to come.
 
I have told this so many time, when they will attack it will be air war not boots. They are going to attack not to capture but to destroy. Trust me if it happens, PAF will do nothing.

I see this coming in days to come.

They are doing it already, but it isn't making any difference in Afghanistan, is it? They only have 2 cards, & they have played one of their cards: drone strikes. The other is cutting off financial assistance to Pakistan. There have been talks in the US Senate & Congress for quite some time to cut off aid to Pakistan. That is the only thing they can do. But then, they will lose complete influence over Pakistan, & will be the biggest losers. Hence, they won't try to lose this (financial assistance) card, & will try to pressure Pakistan to act against the Haqqanis. They know they've got Pakistan over a hold with the 'financial assistance' card, but once they play that card, they will be the biggest losers.
 
Mullen Asserts Pakistani Role in Attack on U.S. Embassy
Philip Scott Andrews/The New York Times

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, left, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen, right, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee about ongoing strategy in Afghanistan and Iraq.
By ELISABETH BUMILLER and JANE PERLEZ
Published: September 22, 2011

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/23/w...s-pakistani-role-in-attack-on-us-embassy.html

WASHINGTON — Pakistan’s intelligence agency aided the insurgents who attacked the American Embassy in Kabul last week, Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate on Thursday.


In comments that were the first to directly link Pakistan’s powerful spy agency, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, with an assault on the United States, Admiral Mullen went further than any other American official in blaming the ISI for undermining the American military effort in Afghanistan. The United States has long said that the ISI has close links to Afghan insurgents, particularly the Haqqani network, but no one has been as blunt as Admiral Mullen.

Admiral Mullen is to retire at the end of this month, and coming from him the statements carried exceptional weight. He has been the American military official who has led the effort for years to improve cooperation with the Pakistanis. But relations have reached a nadir since American commandoes killed Osama bin Laden deep inside Pakistan in May. Pakistani officials were not told of the raid in advance, and questions remain about whether Pakistani intelligence was sheltering the Qaeda leader.

The attack on the American embassy, and ISI support for the Haqqani network — which also forms one of the most lethal parts of the insurgency attacking American forces in Afghanistan — is the latest point of tension.

Pakistan’s intelligence agency has supported the Haqqanis as a way to further Pakistani influence in Afghanistan. On Thursday Admiral Mullen made clear that support extended to increasingly high-profile attacks aimed directly at the United States.

“With ISI support, Haqqani operatives planned and conducted that truck bomb attack, as well as the assault on our embassy,” Admiral Mullen told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee. “We also have credible evidence that they were behind the June 28th attack against the Inter-Continental Hotel in Kabul and a host of other smaller but effective operations.”

In short, he said, “the Haqqani network acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Agency.”

The truck bomb attack that Admiral Mullen referred to occurred at a NATO outpost south of Kabul on Sept. 10, when a cargo vehicle packed with explosives killed at least five people and wounded 77 coalition troops. The toll of wounded was one of the worst for foreign forces in a single episode in the 10-year-old war.

It is unclear what steps American officials are prepared to take against the Haqqanis, but the increasingly strong public statements indicated that reining in the group has become a more urgent priority as the United States looks to withdraw from Afghanistan and leave a stable country and viable government behind.

On Thursday the Pakistani Interior Minister, Rehman Malik, said his government would “not allow” an American operation aimed at the Haqqani network in North Waziristan. ;)

Mr. Malik seemed to indicate that Obama administration officials had threatened Tuesday in their meetings in Washington with the head of Pakistan’s intelligence agency, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, that American troops were prepared to cross the border from Afghanistan into North Waziristan to attack the Haqqani militants.

“The Pakistan nation will not allow the boots on our ground, never,” Mr. Malik said in an interview with Reuters. “Our government is already cooperating with the U.S. — but they also must respect our sovereignty.”

In a meeting in Islamabad on Wednesday with the head of the F.B.I., Robert S. Mueller III, Mr. Malik said that the Haqqani network was not present in Pakistan, a statement that American officials said they found disingenuous.

In his remarks to Pakistani reporters on Wednesday, Mr. Malik said that if the United States provided information on the whereabouts of the Haqqani network in Pakistan, Pakistani “law enforcement” would go after it. :rolleyes:

In making such claims, Mr. Malik was ignoring several years of effort by senior American military officials and diplomats to persuade the Pakistani Army to launch operations against the Haqqani militants, who are well known to American and Pakistani military officials to be centered around Miram Shah, the main town in North Waziristan.

The Pakistani Army has a base in North Waziristan not far from compounds of the Haqqani network.

Since the attack on the American Embassy in Kabul, Pakistani military officials have told Pakistani reporters that it is up to the Americans to deal with the Haqqani fighters inside Afghanistan.

The Pakistanis argue that they do not have sufficient troops in North Waziristan to take on the Haqqanis. But aside from the main Pakistani objective of keeping the Haqqanis as a friendly force in a post-war Afghanistan, some Pakistani military experts say the Pakistani Army is reluctant to fight the Haqqanis because there was concern that the army would not prevail against them.


No decisions had been made on what actions the Obama administration might take against the Haqqani network in North Waziristan, a senior American official said Thursday.

The options would be discussed at a National Security Council meeting at the White House on Monday, he said.

Admiral Mullen testified alongside Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta, who told the committee that the attack on the embassy and the assassination this week of Burhanuddin Rabbani, the leader of Afghanistan’s High Peace Council and a former Afghan president, were “a sign of weakness in the insurgency.” He cast the attacks as signs that the Taliban had shifted to high-profile targets in an effort to disrupt the progress the American military has made.

“Over all, we judge this change in tactics to be a result of a shift in momentum in our favor,” Mr. Panetta said.

No one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack on Mr. Rabbani.

Despite his optimistic remarks about American progress, Mr. Panetta said the American military had a difficult job ahead and had to do better in preventing the insurgents from carrying out raids like the one on the embassy. “While overall violence in Afghanistan is trending down — and down substantially in areas where we concentrated the surge — we must be more effective in stopping these attacks and limiting the ability of insurgents to create perceptions of decreasing security,” Mr. Panetta said.

The hearing, called by the panel to review American military policy in Iraq and Afghanistan, was the first for Mr. Panetta as defense secretary.

Like Mr. Panetta, Admiral Mullen sought to cast the recent attacks in Afghanistan in the best possible light. “We must not attribute more weight to these attacks than they deserve,” Admiral Mullen said. “They are serious and significant, but they do not represent a sea change in the odds of military success.”

Admiral Mullen voiced a stern warning to Pakistan, who he said was undermining its own interests as well as the American interest in fighting terror networks in the region.


“In choosing to use violent extremism as an instrument of policy, the government of Pakistan, and most especially the Pakistani Army and ISI, jeopardizes not only the prospect of our strategic partnership but Pakistan’s opportunity to be a respected nation with legitimate regional influence,” he said. “They may believe that by using these proxies, they are hedging their bets or redressing what they feel is an imbalance in regional power. But in reality, they have already lost that bet.


“By exporting violence, they’ve eroded their internal security and their position in the region. They have undermined their international credibility and threatened their economic well-being.”

But he said he did not believe he had wasted his time by putting so much effort into improving ties with Pakistan’s government.

“I’ve done this because I believe that a flawed and difficult relationship is better than no relationship at all,” he said. “Some may argue I’ve wasted my time, that Pakistan is no closer to us than before, and may now have drifted even further away. I disagree. Military cooperation again is warming.”
 

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