1. Early 20th century the Communists were certain that the first communist revolution would take place in British India. Comrade Muzaffar Ahmed was the point man for this. Soon however, the communists realized they had erred seriously in the analysis of India in terms of dialectic materialism. They had not taken into account the powerful hold that the cast system holds over the Hindu community. The cast division is so strong that nothing can breach this. Eventually Russia and Germany were selected, and the Bolshevik revolution took place in Russia.
2. This forecast overlooks the serious problems India is facing within. Insurgencies, secessionist movements and freedom struggle have bled India from inception. Cast division, ethnic division, religious intolerance, linguistic divide, endless graft among political leadership and the huge ever-widening gap between the ****** rich and the abject poor may not see India in one piece by 2030.
3. Pakistan has proved to be too resilient to be written off so lightly. The analysis ignores the rise of Muslims everywhere, and the internal pressure in all Muslim societies to unite as the Ummah. S Asian Muslims will look up to Pakistan for salvation. Pakistan will work as the vanguard of W Asian Muslims into S Asia. These growing trends will enhance Pakistan's importance.
4. Many more nations will become nuclear shortly. The race for overtaking others in this field will continue. However, non-nuclear conflicts or limited warfare in various locations will continue as now.
