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U.S. mulls entry into Israel-Hezbollah conflict
By Michael Matza
The Philadelphia Inquirer
JERUSALEM - As the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah enters its second week, it appears there will be no peace without U.S. intervention.
While Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has made long-distance efforts to calm the crisis that began with the abduction of two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid from Lebanon, she said Tuesday she would not go to the region until the time was right.
Some analysts interpret the apparent absence of urgency as tacit support for Israel to continue its military campaign.
"The United States will allow Israel to go on pounding Hezbollah and its strongholds until the group says, `Uncle,'" said Israeli analyst Amatzia Baram. "Then Uncle Sam will step in."
When the United States fully engages its diplomatic machinery, it will work in tandem with Israel as good cop and bad cop.
"Most of the Arabs see us as the bad boy," said Baram, alluding to Israel's reputation for militarism. "The only one who can tame us is the United States. In this way the U.S. has a lot of leverage, and American diplomacy can be a huge value."
Beyond wanting to defuse the crisis, the United States has its own interests. It defines Hezbollah as a terrorist organization and needs to see it disarmed.
Given U.S. struggles in Iraq and Afghanistan, a defeat of Hezbollah "could be the first breakthrough in the struggle against radical Islamic terrorism," Baram said.
Recognizing the stakes, Muslim regimes with their own homegrown radical Islamist movements are speaking out against Hezbollah. Egypt and Jordan were to be expected, but this time Saudi Arabia is, too.
While Hezbollah will not bow without a fight, its strength has been eroded by Israel's fierce response to its missile strikes on Israel's north.
Military planners say it is only a matter of time before Israel knocks out Hezbollah or drives it so far north that its ability to hit Israeli targets is neutralized. A weak Hezbollah would be easier to deal with in negotiations when the United States becomes fully engaged.
With more than 250 people dead, most of them Lebanese, and mounting civilian casualties on both sides, the international community, led by special envoys of the United Nations, is making hurried diplomatic efforts that could produce an eventual cease-fire.
The U.N. delegation, which is expected to report back to the Security Council Wednesday, was in Israel for talks Tuesday, after a similar mission in Lebanon.
Afterward, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni gave her interpretation of the meeting.
"The diplomatic process is not intended to reduce the window of opportunity for military operations, but will take place in parallel," she said, emphasizing that Israel had no intention, for now, of pulling back its forces.
While the envoys declined to make public their initiatives, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, with the support of British Prime Minister Tony Blair and French Premier Dominique de Villepin, favors deploying a large, multinational force of peacekeepers to create a buffer zone that would stop attacks on Israel and permit the Lebanese army to deploy on country's southern frontier.
Since the end of the Lebanese civil war in 1990, Lebanon has left the policing of its southern border to Hezbollah.
About 2,000 lightly armed multinational peacekeeping troops of UNIFIL - the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon - have been in the area since 1978 but have been toothless against sporadic violence.
"The best result is for Hezbollah to be disarmed. Practically speaking, there is no chance of that right now," said Baram, a professor of Mideast history in Haifa, Israel's third-largest city, which has been hit by Hezbollah missiles.
"The second-best option is for a powerful international force - and by powerful, I mean at least 10,000 troops with tanks, not just jeeps, and full authority to shoot to kill," Baram said. " . . . Otherwise they become a shield behind which Hezbollah can kill us."
Cameron Brown, a specialist in U.S.-Israel relations at the Interdisciplinary Center, an academic institute north of Tel Aviv, said: "The United States will make it appear that diplomacy is on the horizon in order to give the military a few more days to play itself out.
"Instead of using diplomacy to stop the fighting, they will use it to buy more time for the army to work," he said, adding that the work would include stepped-up efforts to kill Hezbollah's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.
The military theorist Carl von Clausewitz defined war as "the continuation of policy with other means," Brown said, "and that is exactly what I think we are seeing here."
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U.S. mulls entry into Israel-Hezbollah conflict
By Michael Matza
The Philadelphia Inquirer
JERUSALEM - As the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah enters its second week, it appears there will be no peace without U.S. intervention.
While Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has made long-distance efforts to calm the crisis that began with the abduction of two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid from Lebanon, she said Tuesday she would not go to the region until the time was right.
Some analysts interpret the apparent absence of urgency as tacit support for Israel to continue its military campaign.
"The United States will allow Israel to go on pounding Hezbollah and its strongholds until the group says, `Uncle,'" said Israeli analyst Amatzia Baram. "Then Uncle Sam will step in."
When the United States fully engages its diplomatic machinery, it will work in tandem with Israel as good cop and bad cop.
"Most of the Arabs see us as the bad boy," said Baram, alluding to Israel's reputation for militarism. "The only one who can tame us is the United States. In this way the U.S. has a lot of leverage, and American diplomacy can be a huge value."
Beyond wanting to defuse the crisis, the United States has its own interests. It defines Hezbollah as a terrorist organization and needs to see it disarmed.
Given U.S. struggles in Iraq and Afghanistan, a defeat of Hezbollah "could be the first breakthrough in the struggle against radical Islamic terrorism," Baram said.
Recognizing the stakes, Muslim regimes with their own homegrown radical Islamist movements are speaking out against Hezbollah. Egypt and Jordan were to be expected, but this time Saudi Arabia is, too.
While Hezbollah will not bow without a fight, its strength has been eroded by Israel's fierce response to its missile strikes on Israel's north.
Military planners say it is only a matter of time before Israel knocks out Hezbollah or drives it so far north that its ability to hit Israeli targets is neutralized. A weak Hezbollah would be easier to deal with in negotiations when the United States becomes fully engaged.
With more than 250 people dead, most of them Lebanese, and mounting civilian casualties on both sides, the international community, led by special envoys of the United Nations, is making hurried diplomatic efforts that could produce an eventual cease-fire.
The U.N. delegation, which is expected to report back to the Security Council Wednesday, was in Israel for talks Tuesday, after a similar mission in Lebanon.
Afterward, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni gave her interpretation of the meeting.
"The diplomatic process is not intended to reduce the window of opportunity for military operations, but will take place in parallel," she said, emphasizing that Israel had no intention, for now, of pulling back its forces.
While the envoys declined to make public their initiatives, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, with the support of British Prime Minister Tony Blair and French Premier Dominique de Villepin, favors deploying a large, multinational force of peacekeepers to create a buffer zone that would stop attacks on Israel and permit the Lebanese army to deploy on country's southern frontier.
Since the end of the Lebanese civil war in 1990, Lebanon has left the policing of its southern border to Hezbollah.
About 2,000 lightly armed multinational peacekeeping troops of UNIFIL - the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon - have been in the area since 1978 but have been toothless against sporadic violence.
"The best result is for Hezbollah to be disarmed. Practically speaking, there is no chance of that right now," said Baram, a professor of Mideast history in Haifa, Israel's third-largest city, which has been hit by Hezbollah missiles.
"The second-best option is for a powerful international force - and by powerful, I mean at least 10,000 troops with tanks, not just jeeps, and full authority to shoot to kill," Baram said. " . . . Otherwise they become a shield behind which Hezbollah can kill us."
Cameron Brown, a specialist in U.S.-Israel relations at the Interdisciplinary Center, an academic institute north of Tel Aviv, said: "The United States will make it appear that diplomacy is on the horizon in order to give the military a few more days to play itself out.
"Instead of using diplomacy to stop the fighting, they will use it to buy more time for the army to work," he said, adding that the work would include stepped-up efforts to kill Hezbollah's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.
The military theorist Carl von Clausewitz defined war as "the continuation of policy with other means," Brown said, "and that is exactly what I think we are seeing here."
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