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The normalization of ties between Washington and Tehran may weaken the regional position of Sunni Gulf states, which consider the US-Iranian rapprochement to be a threat to their interests, and this may cause them to drift closer to Turkey, which is seen as a crucial regional power.
Alarm bells started ringing in the capitals of Washington's main Middle Eastern allies, particularly the Gulf states, after a historic telephone conversation on Sept. 27 between US President Barack Obama and Iran's newly elected President Hassan Rohani -- the first direct contact between the presidents of the two nations since the 1979 Iranian revolution. Obama's groundbreaking telephone call to Rohani is a clear indication of a significant shift in the attitudes of the two sides but also a sign of change in the equation of the politically fragile region, say experts.
US Secretary of State John Kerry recently said that he is hopeful the window for diplomacy is cracking open with Iran.
There are some US allies in the Middle East who would be uneasy about possible reconciliation between Washington and Tehran. US Gulf allies consider the Iranian government's policies a threat to their interests. Sunni Gulf countries may lean toward Turkey due to this US-Iranian rapprochement, Bora Bayraktar, an academic who specializes in Turkish foreign policy and the Middle East at Kültür University, told Sunday's Zaman.
However, although Iran's Rohani, who is known for his nuanced, conciliatory and reformist political approach, has become the country's moderate face with his promises and calls for friendly relations with all neighbors in the region, Sunni Gulf countries remain worried about the Shiite country's ambitions and fear that a US-Iranian thaw could consolidate Tehran's position in the region.
Rohani aims to raise Iran's diplomatic profile in the international system through attempts at recalibrating ties with Washington, a situation pushing Gulf states to question their position in the US pecking order.
Sunni Gulf countries -- which still have considerable Shiite populations -- see the mullah regime's policies as a danger to the stability and security of the region. They are against Iran's intervention in regional issues. Iran sees the Gulf as its own backyard and believes it has a legitimate interest in expanding its influence there.
Additionally, the Gulf states were disappointed by Washington's stance on Syria and could hardly contain their displeasure when Washington pulled back from possible military action in Syria over a chemical attack in the suburbs of Damascus on Aug. 21 in favor of a Russian plan seeking the dismantlement of the Syrian regime's chemical arsenal.
In the volatile region, Turkey is another country that is not happy with Shiite country's sectarian policies. Turkey and Iran have improved their ties in recent years, but conflicting policies regarding the Syrian crisis have strained relations since last year. Turkey is one of the staunchest supporters of the opposition forces trying to topple embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while Iran has stood by ally Syria -- one of Iran's last Shiite allies in the region -- despite growing international pressure on Assad.
However, Turkey and Gulf states have adopted similar stances regarding the Syrian crisis in the diplomatic sphere. Despite these similar positions, Turkey and its Gulf allies fell into disagreement over the July 3 military coup in Egypt. While Ankara has harshly criticized the coup that overthrew President Mohammed Morsi, who enjoyed a close relationship with Turkey during his one-year presidency, the Gulf states welcomed the coup and showered Egypt with pledges for aid.
Experts believe that despite the differences in opinion between Turkey and the Gulf states over the situation in Egypt, a US-Iranian thaw may push those Sunni Arab states toward Turkey.
According to experts, as Iran increases its military power in the region, the Gulf states will feel it necessary they increase their military power, and they consider Turkey -- which desires to maintain stability and security in the Gulf -- a reliable partner with whom they can strengthen their military cooperation. Turkey signed a deal on military cooperation with Gulf countries, including Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, last year.
In order to maintain balance in the region, the Gulf states need to cooperate with Turkey against Iran, maintain experts, who also warn that Turkey should not shift into a Sunni alliance for the sake of confronting Iran.
Possible US-Iranian reconciliation would have a tremendous impact on the policies of countries in the region. The Gulf countries, in order to protect their regional interests, may use Turkey as a balancing power. However, Turkey should be careful here because such a US-Iranian thaw would serve Turkey's interests differently than the Gulf states, Mehmet Şahin, who teaches international relations at Gazi University in Ankara, told Sunday's Zaman.
Şahin maintained that when Iran is pushed out of the game in the Middle East, it engages in proxy battles -- something that jeopardizes Turkey's interests.
Needless to say, an equation in the region which does not include Iran would not benefit Turkey. When taking into consideration the Shiite country's policies on Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, Iran should not be pushed out of the game in the Middle East. Possible US-Iranian rapprochement would definitely serve Ankara's interests, said Şahin.
Turkish relations with Iraq's Shiite-led government are also strained as Iraq, which has close ties with Assad ally Iran, is hesitant to take a stance on the Syrian conflict. According to experts, the strained relations between the two countries have played to the hand of Iran, the mastermind of the proxy conflicts in the region.
US-Iran thaw may bring Gulf states closer to Turkey - Today's Zaman, your gateway to Turkish daily news
Alarm bells started ringing in the capitals of Washington's main Middle Eastern allies, particularly the Gulf states, after a historic telephone conversation on Sept. 27 between US President Barack Obama and Iran's newly elected President Hassan Rohani -- the first direct contact between the presidents of the two nations since the 1979 Iranian revolution. Obama's groundbreaking telephone call to Rohani is a clear indication of a significant shift in the attitudes of the two sides but also a sign of change in the equation of the politically fragile region, say experts.
US Secretary of State John Kerry recently said that he is hopeful the window for diplomacy is cracking open with Iran.
There are some US allies in the Middle East who would be uneasy about possible reconciliation between Washington and Tehran. US Gulf allies consider the Iranian government's policies a threat to their interests. Sunni Gulf countries may lean toward Turkey due to this US-Iranian rapprochement, Bora Bayraktar, an academic who specializes in Turkish foreign policy and the Middle East at Kültür University, told Sunday's Zaman.
However, although Iran's Rohani, who is known for his nuanced, conciliatory and reformist political approach, has become the country's moderate face with his promises and calls for friendly relations with all neighbors in the region, Sunni Gulf countries remain worried about the Shiite country's ambitions and fear that a US-Iranian thaw could consolidate Tehran's position in the region.
Rohani aims to raise Iran's diplomatic profile in the international system through attempts at recalibrating ties with Washington, a situation pushing Gulf states to question their position in the US pecking order.
Sunni Gulf countries -- which still have considerable Shiite populations -- see the mullah regime's policies as a danger to the stability and security of the region. They are against Iran's intervention in regional issues. Iran sees the Gulf as its own backyard and believes it has a legitimate interest in expanding its influence there.
Additionally, the Gulf states were disappointed by Washington's stance on Syria and could hardly contain their displeasure when Washington pulled back from possible military action in Syria over a chemical attack in the suburbs of Damascus on Aug. 21 in favor of a Russian plan seeking the dismantlement of the Syrian regime's chemical arsenal.
In the volatile region, Turkey is another country that is not happy with Shiite country's sectarian policies. Turkey and Iran have improved their ties in recent years, but conflicting policies regarding the Syrian crisis have strained relations since last year. Turkey is one of the staunchest supporters of the opposition forces trying to topple embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while Iran has stood by ally Syria -- one of Iran's last Shiite allies in the region -- despite growing international pressure on Assad.
However, Turkey and Gulf states have adopted similar stances regarding the Syrian crisis in the diplomatic sphere. Despite these similar positions, Turkey and its Gulf allies fell into disagreement over the July 3 military coup in Egypt. While Ankara has harshly criticized the coup that overthrew President Mohammed Morsi, who enjoyed a close relationship with Turkey during his one-year presidency, the Gulf states welcomed the coup and showered Egypt with pledges for aid.
Experts believe that despite the differences in opinion between Turkey and the Gulf states over the situation in Egypt, a US-Iranian thaw may push those Sunni Arab states toward Turkey.
According to experts, as Iran increases its military power in the region, the Gulf states will feel it necessary they increase their military power, and they consider Turkey -- which desires to maintain stability and security in the Gulf -- a reliable partner with whom they can strengthen their military cooperation. Turkey signed a deal on military cooperation with Gulf countries, including Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, last year.
In order to maintain balance in the region, the Gulf states need to cooperate with Turkey against Iran, maintain experts, who also warn that Turkey should not shift into a Sunni alliance for the sake of confronting Iran.
Possible US-Iranian reconciliation would have a tremendous impact on the policies of countries in the region. The Gulf countries, in order to protect their regional interests, may use Turkey as a balancing power. However, Turkey should be careful here because such a US-Iranian thaw would serve Turkey's interests differently than the Gulf states, Mehmet Şahin, who teaches international relations at Gazi University in Ankara, told Sunday's Zaman.
Şahin maintained that when Iran is pushed out of the game in the Middle East, it engages in proxy battles -- something that jeopardizes Turkey's interests.
Needless to say, an equation in the region which does not include Iran would not benefit Turkey. When taking into consideration the Shiite country's policies on Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, Iran should not be pushed out of the game in the Middle East. Possible US-Iranian rapprochement would definitely serve Ankara's interests, said Şahin.
Turkish relations with Iraq's Shiite-led government are also strained as Iraq, which has close ties with Assad ally Iran, is hesitant to take a stance on the Syrian conflict. According to experts, the strained relations between the two countries have played to the hand of Iran, the mastermind of the proxy conflicts in the region.
US-Iran thaw may bring Gulf states closer to Turkey - Today's Zaman, your gateway to Turkish daily news
