US grooming India to annoy China, Pakistan’

[A.Rahman]

US grooming India to annoy China, Pakistan’

New Delhi / Washington • The United States is grooming India into a junior partner in a bid to make New Delhi break out of its shell and exert enough influence in the Indian Ocean region to at least annoy China and a recalcitrant Pakistan, a US think tank has suggested.

Such a strategic partnership would not only protect US interests in the region, but could also powerfully demonstrate to Islamabad that it would not stop a resurgent India from attacking Pakistan, intelligence think tank Stratfor said. Though the self-styled “shadow CIA” itself considers such a scenario unlikely, it suggested that development of a strategic partnership between Washington and New Delhi would also help take India out of Iran’s orbit.

Analysing the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Peter Pace’s recent visit to New Delhi, it suggested that as part of this developing strategic partnership he had given India the green signal to test its Agni III missile in August with the assurance that it would not affect the US-India nuclear deal. Indian officials have dismissed the Stratfor suggestion that the US had given its nod for test firing the nuclear-capable Agni-III intercontinental ballistic missile, maintaining this was only the interpretation of the US think tank. “India has made it amply clear that we have imposed a voluntary ban on testing and that is where the matter stands,” a Defence Ministry official said in New Delhi on Friday.

Apart from its suggestion about Agni, Stratfor considered the evolving relationship between India and US as a potentially deep one.

“The United States will provide India with nuclear technology, development capital, and military hardware and training; in return, India will help safeguard US interests in the Indian Ocean region. “The partnership could also powerfully demonstrate to Pakistani President Gen Pervez Musharraf that the United States would not act to block a resurgent India from attacking Pakistan (not that such a scenario is likely) and also help take New Delhi out of Iran’s orbit,” it said.

“A formal alliance it is not; India does not want to be seen as being anti-Moscow or anti-Beijing, even as it develops stronger ties with the United States. Geopolitically, China and India have been off of each other’s radar screens, as they are geographically sealed from each other by the natural wall of the Himalayas and jungle,” Stratfor said.

India wants to continue to buy arms from Russia, such as parts for the MiG-29Ks that will be flying off the deck of the INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier, which is to be handed over after a Russian refit in 2008. New Delhi wants the US to continue to train the pilots of those MiGs for carrier operations. The US has also agreed in principle to sell India an Austin-class Landing Platform Dock, the USS Trenton, significantly enhancing New Delhi’s maritime power-projection capabilities. In return, Washington would like India to do exactly what it wants to anyway: shoulder responsibility and become a powerhouse in the Indian Ocean, Stratfor said.

The United States hopes that an India more involved in the Malacca Strait and with an improved navy will make China nervous. As Malacca is a chokepoint for Chinese trade and energy supplies, the naval frontier is essentially the only potential conflict point between New Delhi and Beijing.

Washington would like New Delhi to break out of its shell and exert enough influence in the region to at least annoy China and a recalcitrant Pakistan, and “India would like to get whatever it can from its latest patron, the United States, in order to help alleviate its massive infrastructure problems, which are preventing India from becoming a major world power”, Stratfor concluded.

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_n...06061135447.xml

 

[A.Rahman]

India cannot stop Sino-Pak cooperation - for China, Pakistan is a nuclear armed state with the 6th largest Army in the world. No sane country would want to give that up, especially if that ally is strategically important. The U.S has figured out that sanctioning Pakistan will only push it to expand and solidify its defence industry - and even after sanctions, it continues to pursue a good defence industry. If the U.S sanctions Pakistan again, then Pakistan will not only expand its conventional capabilities more aggressively - but also its nuclear and strategic weapon capabilities. The stronger Pakistan becomes - the more vanuerable U.S interests in India are.

 

[MastanKhan]

A Rahman,

India is just playing with the U S of A and it will keep doing so till the americans allow it to. India's only interest is to get its hands on the american technology.

One must remember that india is still a democracy and for any aggressive action to be taken out against china the members of the house will have to agree----and I don't believe that they would take that stand against china just to please the U S. The indian parliament would do the same thing that the turkish parliament did when the U S wanted to invade iraq and needed passage of way. They had turned the request down. Trsut me india would be acting on the same lines. The indians would not be towing the american line as pakistan can even though they have made the americans a believer for the time being. Knowing the indians only a fool would fall for their trickery and it is not the first time that the americans have been taken for their gung-ho attitude.

The future conflict will not be amongst the chinese and the indian navy but rather indian and the american navy and the place would be for the control of indian ocean and the right of way------one of the hard core hard nose indian admiral right wing believer commanding a battle group would not give way to the american battle group-----small insults from the past and minor issues would flare up into a major confrontation. America would have once again bet on the wrong horse.

American relationships are just like their marriages. After 3 or 4 divorces they find out that the first love was the best and the true love.

 

[sigatoka]

The United States hopes that an India more involved in the Malacca Strait and with an improved navy will make China nervous. As Malacca is a chokepoint for Chinese trade and energy supplies, the naval frontier is essentially the only potential conflict point between New Delhi and Beijing.

India's navy is not large enough to protect its waters and contain Pakistan's navy AND seal off the Malacca strait. This scenario also ignores the rapidly improving navies of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore who can also call upon close airsupport from land bases.

India needs 4 aircraft carriers with capacity for 20 planes each before it can start doing all this. (along with the requisite support group.)

 

[Bull]

India's navy is not large enough to protect its waters and contain Pakistan's navy AND seal off the Malacca strait. This scenario also ignores the rapidly improving navies of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore who can also call upon close airsupport from land bases.

India needs 4 aircraft carriers with capacity for 20 planes each before it can start doing all this. (along with the requisite support group.)

India has two joining pretty soon...coupled with the present one.it wud be three.So thats close to the 4 u projected.

And most of the things mentioned are futuristi and u neednt look at current IN to meet futuristic goals.there are currently huge no of ships under construction other than the 2 ACs.So IN wud be there to patrol malacca to Mumbai high..

 

[sigatoka]

India has two joining pretty soon...coupled with the present one.it wud be three.So thats close to the 4 u projected.

I thought India was building only one and buying another from Russia, the one aircraft it has already doesnt seem to be very capable.

How many aircraft will the new one which is being built be able to carry, what is its tonnage. There doenst seem to be much info on the net, when will it be ready.

Three will not be enough Bull because one will always be in training/repairs which leaves two which must be deployed on the Arabian Sea against Pakistan's navy. It can be seen that if there was another one (total 4), that could patrol near the Malacca straits.

 

[tahirkhely]

"that the United States would not act to block a resurgent India from attacking Pakistan ".
Resurgent india, What does it mean. was india somewhere down under.

:flag: :army:

 

[sigatoka]

"that the United States would not act to block a resurgent India from attacking Pakistan ".
Resurgent india, What does it mean. was india somewhere down under.

:flag: :army:

Yes, India in 91 faced a balance of payments crisis. Its only in the last twelve years that India's economy has started growing quickly, in the years before that the U.S. economy was growing faster than India's.

 

[Samudra]

India cannot stop Sino-Pak cooperation

The Chinese wont shed a drop of blood for the Pakistanis.
Moreover look at Indo-Chinese bilateral trade figures.

If the U.S sanctions Pakistan again, then Pakistan will not only expand its conventional capabilities more aggressively - but also its nuclear and strategic weapon capabilities.

Your economy wont be able to support anything.

The World Bank is providing so much loans, US gives you so much aid money every month...with all these gone you just wont be able to sustain any significant expenditure.

You can buy weapons from China but I'm not sure if the Pak Armed forces want to fight a war with only Chinese weapons....

 

[Neo]

You can buy weapons from China but I'm not sure if the Pak Armed forces want to fight a war with only Chinese weapons....

Chinese weapons are becoming more and more advanced and within a decade they'll be producing hightech weapons.
But its not in our interest to rely on one supplier only, makes us vulnerable for any future conflict, the '65 cenario which turned us to China after US blocked aid.

China and Pakistan are allies and will be for a long time to come. Having greater trade ties with India doesn't prove anything, China has great trade with the US, EU and Japan..
As long India and Pakistan remain enemies, it will be in Chinese interest to support Pakistan.

 

[sigatoka]

Your economy wont be able to support anything.

The World Bank is providing so much loans, US gives you so much aid money every month...with all these gone you just wont be able to sustain any significant expenditure.

Pakistan's economy is growing very rapidly and while the U.S. aid and world bank loans help, it is quite a stretch to claim that it alone is responsible for the growth. After all Egypt receives around three billion a year in aid from U.S. (compared to aournd one for pak.) and yet they are only growing at around 4.5% compared to Pak. 7%

The world bank makes money by loaning, the fact that they are loaning to Pak. suggests it is a strong customer. It is the IMF which steps in to rescue bankrupt nations.

If U.S. applies sanctions then Pak. will stop helping U.S. in Afghanistan and wont deploy 80,000 troops to the border. Pak. will substitute U.S. equipment for Chinese and will increase production of nuclear weapons which can be produced domestically. U.S. makes good money selling weapons to Pak. as much if not more than it does selling to India which procures nearly totally from Russia.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

Pakistan will not let go of its U S equipment. It will be used till it is totally worn out and cannot be of any further significance or usage. And with the passage of time with india getting closer to the US,russia may have other thoughts as well. Not in the too far future pakistan and russia may have better trade relations and road connection.

Russia is totally isolated at this moment----apart from china it does not have a major ally left anywhere in the world. India is pretty soon going to be a proxy state of the U S unless tha BJP gets back into power. Europeans have become weary of russia after it turned off the gas pipeline to ukraine awhile ago.

As india is preparing itself to be the frontline state against the chinese aggression and all its nuclear weapons are designed for the chinese, I don't know how good the relationship between india and china can be. I mean to say that chinese are not that **** or stupid as india has stated many a times that its millitary buildup is geared towards china.

The reason you don't see high growth rate in egypt is that egypt was first of all not as poor as pakistan----second thing is that pakistani industry has much more diversity than the egyptian industry---I believe that pakistan has much more labour than egypt----pakistan wants to be a somebody----pakistan wants to create a successful image of itself----pakistan is looking ahead to be the next successful nation-------egypt does not have a Musharraf or Aziz but then egypt has moved away from the main stream middle east conflict for the time being. The progress maybe 4.5 but they have other issues to overcome.

 

[sigatoka]

Hi,

The reason you don't see high growth rate in egypt is that egypt was first of all not as poor as pakistan----egypt does not have a Musharraf or Aziz but then egypt has moved away from the main stream middle east conflict for the time being. The progress maybe 4.5 but they have other issues to overcome.

What you are saying is quite true, Egypt has per capita income which is around approx. 50% higher than India and Pak. However China and Japan has shown that economic growth of 8% a year is possible upto a per capita income level of 5,000 (USD @ PPP) I think Egypt per capita income is around 2,500? So while 4-5% a year is good, 7-9% is possible as shown by China and Japan.

Egypt's problem is low savings rate, restrictive trade practices and not enough government expenditure on education, roads and electricity.

 

[Neo]

Excellent analysis and posts Sigatoka and Mastan!
Keep posting! :thumbsup:

If the US cutoff aid, it would certainly effect us and the growthrate could fall by atleast 1.5-2.00% as we'll be facing budget dificit and will have to cut domestic development funds to fill the gap for military purchase. USaid stands at $600 million per annum, half of it goes to the military.

But even if it happens, our liabilities are good enough to get good loans from the international markets to grant sustained growth of 6-8% p/a.

Ofcourse in such scenario we'll be more vulnerable for a Mexico or Argentina like financial and monetary crisis.

Just my $0.02.

 

[Kaiser]

The US wont be cutting AID off to pakistan for the next few years and then even after the chances are slim

Cutting off US aid to Pakistan would just make pakistan more dependent on China and would help pakistan make alot more nukes