US GDP to leave China behind

[F-22Raptor]

At these growth rates, China will be left behind if they can’t get things turned around.

The US will surpass $30T in 2025. US GDP will exceed $27.5T in 2023.

 

[F-22Raptor]

US GDP will be over $33T for 2026.

China will fall further and further behind if it can’t significantly exceed US growth rates and get control over the depreciating yuan.

 

[aziqbal]

US GDP will be over $33T for 2026.

China will fall further and further behind if it can’t significantly exceed US growth rates and get control over the depreciating yuan.

Chinese GDP has no real value as Chinese artificially inflate their GDP figures

its like Chinese science publications most they are fake

 

[F-22Raptor]

Chinese GDP has no real value as Chinese artificially inflate their GDP figures

its like Chinese science publications most they are fake

If the US hits those growth rates, China will have to grow 6-7% just to keep pace in dollars added to GDP.

 

[Mista]

The median real growth rate projection for the US is ~1.8% in the long run.

Assuming equal inflation, China will still catch up with the US eventually as long as it can grow faster than 1.8%. The long term projected inflation is ~2% for the US.

The depreciating RMB is a temporary phenomenon due to different monetary policy cycles. The USD can't possibly appreciate against the RMB every year to make up for the lower real growth rate in the US.

In fact, the USD/RMB will likely fall back to the 6-7 range after the US lowers interest rates. The Fed's fund rate is projected to start falling in 2024, and reach ~2.5% in the longer run.

 

[F-22Raptor]

View attachment 955185

The median real growth rate projection for the US is ~1.8% in the long run.

Assuming equal inflation, China will still catch up with the US eventually as long as it can grow faster than 1.8%. The long term projected inflation is ~2% for the US.

The depreciating RMB is a temporary phenomenon due to different monetary policy cycles. The USD can't possibly appreciate against the RMB every year to make up for the lower real growth rate in the US.

In fact, the USD/RMB will likely fall back to the 6-7 range after the US lowers interest rates. The Fed's fund rate is projected to start falling in 2024, and reach ~2.5% in the longer run.

US GDP will exceed $40T in less than a decade, and China is decelerating into catastrophic demographic decline in the 2030s and beyond. China is looking at sub 3% growth before 2030.

China is unlikely to ever surpass US GDP

 

[FourMikeEcho]

What’s with this ‘I am better than you’ chest thumping. Why do you think the world is a zero sum game? You sound like the Indians and Chinese who initiate posts like these with Half the information.

China’s path to prosperity and first world economy (and subsequent boost to the world) are a historic achievement Given where they were as a country in the 60s to now…….

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

What’s with this ‘I am better than you’ chest thumping. Why do you think the world is a zero sum game? You sound like the Indians and Chinese who initiate posts like these with Half the information.

China’s path to prosperity and first world economy (and subsequent boost to the world) are a historic achievement Given where they were as a country in the 60s to now…….

China "path to prosperity" is them finally joining the WTO and finally letting in western investment. There's no secret to it.

People forget that Chinese poverty are imposed on them by Mao. And after his death and Deng finally allowing the chinese to start a business

 

[kankan326]

Recently there are two countries that like boasting GDP. USA and India. Both are suffering electricity consumption decrease.

China "path to prosperity" is them finally joining the WTO and finally letting in western investment. There's no secret to it.

People forget that Chinese poverty are imposed on them by Mao. And after his death and Deng finally allowing the chinese to start a business

FYI, Inida joined in WTO earlier than China. Most develping countries let western investment in earlier than China. China before Mao was poorer than after Mao.

 

[StraightEdge]

View attachment 955066


At these growth rates, China will be left behind if they can’t get things turned around.

The US will surpass $30T in 2025. US GDP will exceed $27.5T in 2023.

Why don't you spend 30mins learning about some basic definitions before opening countless such threads??

Did you read the 1st sentence? Growth rates are based on real GDP value. The nominal GDP value you mentioned are not of any value while calculating growth rate.
Even if you didn't know that, it just takes few seconds to verify.

If you want to selectively use such numbers, someone will point you that China's GDP increased by about $7 trillion since the COVID pandemic. Whereas US GDP increased by $4 trillion in same time frame.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
On other hand, some economists already argue that US GDP numbers are overrated.

Is Recent GDP Data Overestimating U.S. Growth?

The recently released second-quarter GDP data continues to signal that the US economy remains strong. Is recent GDP data overestimating US growth? Find out.

seekingalpha.com

Technically GDI (not GDP) shows, US economy contracted for 2 consecutive quarters (2022 Q4, 2023 Q1) with a very marginal growth of 0.5% in 2023 Q2.

You know what, let me give you a more damning statistics. For every $1 of GDP growth US is taking $5 of debt. Which means borrowing has become much less effective. Non-productive debt levels are soaring.

You need to take a more nuanced approach to judge an economy rather than parroting the same stuff everywhere.

 

[tower9]

Why don't you spend 30mins learning about some basic definitions before opening countless such threads??

View attachment 955442

Did you read the 1st sentence? Growth rates are based on real GDP value. The nominal GDP value you mentioned are not of any value while calculating growth rate.
Even if you didn't know that, it just takes few seconds to verify.

If you want to selectively use such numbers, someone will point you that China's GDP increased by about $7 trillion since the COVID pandemic. Whereas US GDP increased by $4 trillion in same time frame.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
On other hand, some economists already argue that US GDP numbers are overrated.

Is Recent GDP Data Overestimating U.S. Growth?

The recently released second-quarter GDP data continues to signal that the US economy remains strong. Is recent GDP data overestimating US growth? Find out.

seekingalpha.com

Technically GDI (not GDP) shows, US economy contracted for 2 consecutive quarters (2022 Q4, 2023 Q1) with a very marginal growth of 0.5% in 2023 Q2.

You know what, let me give you a more damning statistics. For every $1 of GDP growth US is taking $5 of debt. Which means borrowing has become much less effective. Non-productive debt levels are soaring.

View attachment 955444

You need to take a more nuanced approach to judge an economy rather than parroting the same stuff everywhere.

I wouldn’t spend too much time with him, he’s an American ultra nationalist.

I mean China’s production and consumption figures dwarf the US across almost every industry, these are easily verifiable even based on corporate earnings from MNCs, and we are supposed to believe these exchange rate nominal figures? Sounds fishy.

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

pay more attention to the prices of non-essential goods&services around you, to get an idea where this bloated figure comes from

​

 

[F-22Raptor]

Why don't you spend 30mins learning about some basic definitions before opening countless such threads??

View attachment 955442

Did you read the 1st sentence? Growth rates are based on real GDP value. The nominal GDP value you mentioned are not of any value while calculating growth rate.
Even if you didn't know that, it just takes few seconds to verify.

If you want to selectively use such numbers, someone will point you that China's GDP increased by about $7 trillion since the COVID pandemic. Whereas US GDP increased by $4 trillion in same time frame.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
On other hand, some economists already argue that US GDP numbers are overrated.

Is Recent GDP Data Overestimating U.S. Growth?

The recently released second-quarter GDP data continues to signal that the US economy remains strong. Is recent GDP data overestimating US growth? Find out.

seekingalpha.com

Technically GDI (not GDP) shows, US economy contracted for 2 consecutive quarters (2022 Q4, 2023 Q1) with a very marginal growth of 0.5% in 2023 Q2.

You know what, let me give you a more damning statistics. For every $1 of GDP growth US is taking $5 of debt. Which means borrowing has become much less effective. Non-productive debt levels are soaring.

View attachment 955444

You need to take a more nuanced approach to judge an economy rather than parroting the same stuff everywhere.

I wouldn’t spend too much time with him, he’s an American ultra nationalist.

I mean China’s production and consumption figures dwarf the US across almost every industry, these are easily verifiable even based on corporate earnings from MNCs, and we are supposed to believe these exchange rate nominal figures? Sounds fishy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691239246336593920

Senior economic analyst for Bloomberg

We live in the real world of nominal GDP. Nominal is all that matters in the world of geopolitical power.

 

[tower9]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691239246336593920

Senior economic analyst for Bloomberg

We live in the real world of nominal GDP. Nominal is all that matters in the world of geopolitical power.

It’s called the exchange rate. You don’t understand economic data and it’s painfully obvious.

 

[F-22Raptor]

It’s called the exchange rate. You don’t understand economic data and it’s painfully obvious.

I’m fully aware of Chinas currency depreciation. It ultimately doesn’t matter, because China hasn’t closed the GDP gap in any significant way in over a decade.