US GDP to leave China behind

[FourMikeEcho]

What matters more to China is China is already the world biggest trading nation, export nation, surplus nation, industrial nation, agricultural nation, manufacturing nation, mining nation, shipping nation.. how about US, What US still has other than an inflated GDP number by hyper inflation and bloated stock market? As long as China can keep these real sense titles, China cares much less about inflation and exchange rate based, misleading dollar based GDP number. this number reflects nothing now.

Record share of Americans say they are worse off financially than one year earlier: survey

A record share of Americans in a new survey from the Federal Reserve Board say they’re worse off financially than they were a year earlier. According to the “Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households”…

thehill.com

Xi wasn't in the office yesterday, he has been the president for over a decade now, the past decade was argubly the best quality growth period in the Chinese history. his capability as a top leader had long been proved by time.

Thats obvious he was here , but his unprecended moves typified by actions after 2 terms are recent. Thats where the change in trajectory will come from, including the tight lockdowns and not doing what was right for economy (get vaccines and get people out) vs. go suicidal with the ‘if RNA vax not in China then shut down the economy for 3 years and show record slow growth’. Imagine if the world had not taken masks because they came from China.

He was in office before but he wasn’t arbitraily shutting down or controlling Chinese companies nor were ministers disappearing. You may be Chinese, but we read the same information you ignore

 

[Haldorss]

The Chinese and their *** kissers will use every excuse in the book as to why they can’t close the GDP gap with the US. They’ll cherry pick any stat to support their empty arguments. Some may even sound convincing….until you step back and take a look at the bigger picture.

At the end of 2012:

US GDP- $16.253T
China GDP- $8.539T

A difference of around $7.7T

At the end of 2022:

US GDP- $25.464T
China GDP-$18.100T

A difference of around $7.3T

China only started in two decades. USA started at least since 8 decades.

Also it went from 50% gap to 25% gap.

China does need to steal all tesla developments though. It seems to be the focus now.

 

[beijingwalker]

Thats obvious he was here , but his unprecended moves typified by actions after 2 terms are recent. Thats where the change in trajectory will come from, including the tight lockdowns and not doing what was right for economy (get vaccines and get people out) vs. go suicidal with the ‘if RNA vax not in China then shut down the economy for 3 years and show record slow growth’. Imagine if the world had not taken masks because they came from China.

He was in office before but he wasn’t arbitraily shutting down or controlling Chinese companies nor were ministers disappearing. You may be Chinese, but we read the same information you ignore

The lock down in the first 2 years was the right decision, it helped China avoid massive deaths and made China the only functional country which supplied the world when the rest of the world was paralysed by the pandemic, China enjoyed pretty good growth during the worst time of the pandemic.
The last year's lock down could be a mistake but it's not a major one, China became too confident due to the previous successful partial lockdowns, the lock down should be lifted 6 months earlier in summer, but no matter who is in power, China has to experience that mass infection, that is unavoidable for any country on this planet, the later you do , the better you can weather through, cause the virus itself becomes less lethal and doctors learn more about it and more medicines are available for the disease eath passing year.
Stupid western media blames everything on one person, China has group leadership where any decision is a group one. Xi himself doesn't make arbitary desicions as the western media keep telling you. The decision was made by the government top medical consultation group consisting of the top scientists. No matter who in in power, the result is most probably the same.

 

[Stranagor]

Xi wasn't in the office yesterday, he has been the president for over a decade now, the past decade was argubly the best quality growth period in the Chinese history. his capability as a top leader had long been proved by time.

Not necessarily so.

 

[beijingwalker]

Not necessarily so.

You can shove those propaganda videos from nameless sources to your ***.

 

[Haldorss]

You can shove those propaganda videos from nameless sources to your ***.

They're likely christians

 

[aviator_fan]

The lock down in the first 2 years was the right decision, it helped China avoid massive deaths and made China the only functional country which supplied the world when the rest of the world was paralysed by the pandemic, China enjoyed pretty good growth during the worst time of the pandemic.
The last year's lock down could be a mistake but it's not a major one, China became too confident due to the previous successful partial lockdowns, the lock down should be lifted 6 months earlier in summer, but no matter who is in power, China has to experience that mass infection, that is unavoidable for any country on this planet, the later you do , the better you can weather through, cause the virus itself becomes less lethal and doctors learn more about it and more medicines are available for the disease eath passing year.
Stupid western media blames everything on one person, China has group leadership where any decision is a group one. Xi himself doesn't make arbitary desicions as the western media keep telling you. The decision was made by the government top medical consultation group consisting of the top scientists. No matter who in in power, the result is most probably the same.

We at leasT have western media telling us something and we can disagree with the opinions. Who is feeding you the proaganda information? YOu can’t even breathe without the big firewall knowing about it.

I am not anti-China and I very much would like China to prosper so I am not coming from that standpoint. But don’t disregard facts when two of your ministers have disappeared over the last few months, and Jack Ma has been interfered with for his past comments and living in Japan.

Okay there may be a bias in the media, but at least I can choose among different media sources. You only have one point of view being given and you have to fall in line, There is never An alternate opinion. So stop criticizing any media that doesn’t tow the communist party line

 

[beijingwalker]

We at leasT have western media telling us something and we can disagree with the opinions. Who is feeding you the proaganda information? YOu can’t even breathe without the big firewall knowing about it.

I m in Beijing my home, tell me what you know that I don't know, I can at least compare both Chinese and western media and based on my own experience in both worlds to get a relatively truer picture, where you get own your information?

 

[FourMikeEcho]

Well we know as much as you know about your posts about how the west is inferior and because China has done x and y, that it is at the top of the world.

China’s accomplishments are not to be joked at. Every society/country has its strengths and weaknesses. US has its own long list of both. My point is that just because there is more transparency in the west in terms of news media (you can look at different sources and given enough time one can make on judgment), that information is lacking in China . Yes some are western stories of course to make China look bad (or worse than it is), but many of us our professionals in our business fields) and there are some things that are indisputable and are facts. Like CHina having millions more homes than it can ever fill because of the property based economy.

Just because I say that, or that Xi should not be in his 3rd term does not mean that China cannot make continued progress. All it means is that past is not a good indicator of future. UK is an excellent example of it with all its economic indicators pointing in the opposite direction.

And please if you have some sway in Beijing, I really would like a bipolar world: do something to stop infatuation with Taiwan and just absorb them economically. I would prefer China not be considered a threat by west and subsequently India be put in its rightful place

 

[F-22Raptor]

View attachment 955066


At these growth rates, China will be left behind if they can’t get things turned around.

The US will surpass $30T in 2025. US GDP will exceed $27.5T in 2023.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent (revised).

Current dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent at an annual rate, or $249.4 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $27.06 trillion, a downward revision in change of $19.4 billion (tables 1 and 3).

Comprehensive Update of the National Economic Accounts​

Today’s release presents results from the comprehensive update of the National Economic Accounts (NEAs), which include the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and the Industry Economic Accounts (IEAs). The update includes revised statistics for GDP, GDP by industry, GDI, and their major components. Current-dollar measures of GDP and related components are revised from the first quarter of 2013 through the first quarter of 2023. GDI and selected income components are revised from the first quarter of 1979 through the first quarter of 2023.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross...orate-profits-revised-estimate-second-quarter


After today’s comprehensive update of US GDP and economic accounts, US GDP should grow to near $28T in 2023

 

[kuge]

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent (revised).

Current dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent at an annual rate, or $249.4 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $27.06 trillion, a downward revision in change of $19.4 billion (tables 1 and 3).

Comprehensive Update of the National Economic Accounts​

Today’s release presents results from the comprehensive update of the National Economic Accounts (NEAs), which include the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and the Industry Economic Accounts (IEAs). The update includes revised statistics for GDP, GDP by industry, GDI, and their major components. Current-dollar measures of GDP and related components are revised from the first quarter of 2013 through the first quarter of 2023. GDI and selected income components are revised from the first quarter of 1979 through the first quarter of 2023.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross...orate-profits-revised-estimate-second-quarter


After today’s comprehensive update of US GDP and economic accounts, US GDP should grow to near $28T in 2023

but at what costs?

 

[F-22Raptor]

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent (revised).

Current dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent at an annual rate, or $249.4 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $27.06 trillion, a downward revision in change of $19.4 billion (tables 1 and 3).

Comprehensive Update of the National Economic Accounts​

Today’s release presents results from the comprehensive update of the National Economic Accounts (NEAs), which include the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and the Industry Economic Accounts (IEAs). The update includes revised statistics for GDP, GDP by industry, GDI, and their major components. Current-dollar measures of GDP and related components are revised from the first quarter of 2013 through the first quarter of 2023. GDI and selected income components are revised from the first quarter of 1979 through the first quarter of 2023.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross...orate-profits-revised-estimate-second-quarter


After today’s comprehensive update of US GDP and economic accounts, US GDP should grow to near $28T in 2023

The US added around $300B to its GDP in this comprehensive update.

 

[ProudThamizhan]

Chinese GDP has no real value as Chinese artificially inflate their GDP figures

its like Chinese science publications most they are fake

yup.

Xi the Pooh has destroyed China

 

[StraightEdge]

but at what costs?

We can put some numbers, but rest will need some more analysis.

1. Debt spiraling out of control.

US is currently adding $14 billion debt per day. Since this chart was made, they have added another $45 billion on debt. The per person debt in US is currently $100,000.
Rate of increase in debt is higher than their income, GDP growth.

2. Interest payments - US already paid $808 billion this fiscal, should touch $1 trillion per year pretty soon. That's more spending than their defense budget. New debt they are taking is at higher interest rates, so the interest payments are going to be higher when those mature.

This estimate is older and the number have moved up since then.

3. Their revenue is down 10%
On top of that, their expenses are up by 3%. So imagine with massive reduction in revenue, but higher expenses.
Current deficit is $1.52 trillion for 2023.
And obviously with such massive deficit, they have to take debt to function.
According to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) there were $620 billion of such unrealized (on paper) losses siting on US bank balance sheets in early March. Recent estimates suggesting the outstanding losses could be as much as $1.7 TRILLION!!

4. With higher interest rate, mortgages are high. It's a housing crisis in US now.

House sales are down as a result.

It's a Housing Bubble -

Now you know why so many homeless in the US>

5. In fact poverty is UP in US. It will rise further after ending of COVID related stimulus. Some data recently published -

Also note how median income has reduced even though GDP figure shows 2022 GDP ($25.4T) is 9.2% higher compared to 2021 GDP ($23.3T).
So one may feel happy as GDP value shows 9% increase, but in reality the average people is earning less and paying more interests etc.,

You may also want to look at "GDI". It's published by BEA, also try to understand why GDI is lagging the GDP.

I can keep going on -

> Increased corporate bankruptcies
> Increase in credit card defaults (Americans have more than $1 trillion of just credit card debt)
> Domestic Household saving literally wiped off.
> Crude oil prices just touched $94, about 35% higher in 3 months. And US Strategic Oil Reserves (SPR) is at the lowest level since 1993. In case of an active war, they will be stranded without diesel.

But those are for another day.