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Upward Mobility in Pakistan on 66th Independence Day

Reality is population size, the money required and other severe problems.

If we talk about defense, you talk about our hunger and poverty---> if we work for it, you talk about education---> if we work for it, you talk about our failed space missions and DRDO tests---> if we get success in most of these projects, you talk about our wastage of money n these projects---> if we talk about increasing our defense, you talk about arms race---> if we talk about regional power, you talk about suppa powaa India.--->......and the list goes on with you coming back to India and its hunger and poverty.

This vicious circle has been your best defense against anything regarding India's growth in any field.
So in short, you won't admit anything. :lol:

So yeah I agree, lets talk about Pakistan only.
 
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Here's a Financial Times Op Ed on Pakistan:


Pity the people of Pakistan, trapped between self-serving, complacent elites who preside over a crumbling state, and a rich array of violent extremists who seem determined to tear the same state apart....

The military, the country’s most meritocratic and efficient institution, is widely regarded as the only force that can break this grim cycle. Yet there are other, largely hidden forces at work in Pakistan that hold it together and offer it a better future:

adaptability and resilience, entrepreneurship and shared coping.

These forces can be found in the very new – widespread mobile banking services – and the very old – Islam’s traditions of charity, justice and learning. When government and donors work creatively with these forces, amazing things can happen.

Pakistan has one of the best regulatory environments in the world for microfinance and one of the fastest-growing microfinance sectors, with 3m borrowers. It is also one of the most innovative places in the world for mobile banking services, partly due to the State Bank of Pakistan’s moves to encourage the market. About 1.5m customers make about 30m transactions a quarter through their mobiles, using a network of 20,000 agents, mainly local shops, to collect their cash.

A wave of charitable giving by individuals has helped to ensure that the hundreds of thousands of people displaced by floods in 2010 are not still living in tents. A guerrilla army of more than 100,000 Lady Health Workers, funded by government, has helped to reduce markedly the number of women and babies who die in child birth, according to studies by the World Bank.

Too many children are still out of school and many government schools are woeful. Yet Pakistani parents go to enormous lengths to give their children, girls and boys, a chance at an education.

Low-cost private sector schools, charging perhaps $2 a week, are booming in slums and villages. Wherever girls receive a secondary level education, small private schools run in the homes of their owners start popping up, as they put their education to use to improve their standing in society. Even the government’s conservative figures suggest that a third of children in Pakistan and half in Karachi, many of them from poor households, attend such schools.

Indeed, Pakistan has a record in picking up new approaches to learning. The Allama Iqbal university in Islamabad, the first open university outside the UK, is the second largest in the world with 1.8m students. Start-ups such as Tele Taleem, tucked away on a dusty industrial estate on the outskirts of Islamabad, are pioneering ways to take learning to schools in the remoter regions, through satellite links and cheap tablet computers.

Donors are playing a vital role in promoting social innovation. The UK’s Department for International Development has pioneered a new road map for school improvement in Punjab, which Sir Michael Barber, the education reform expert, says is delivering one of the world’s fastest improvements in school performance. In Karachi, tens of thousands of poorer families will next year receive vouchers to send their children to low-cost private schools.

In agriculture, social venture capitalists such as Indus Basin Holdings are leading efforts to link groups of small-scale rice farmers to multinational companies.

Pakistan’s institutions may seem frozen, its elites worried that taking on the extremists will provoke even more violence in the run-up to next year’s elections. Yet, at the grassroots, Pakistan is in perpetual motion, with ceaseless creativity as people find affordable solutions to their basic needs. These largely hidden forces of resilience offer the best hope for the country’s future. In Pakistan, the state may be fragile but society is far stronger than many think.

Time to look again at Pakistani society - FT.com
 
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Here's Bloomberg on outsize returns of KSE-100:

The KSE 100 Index, the benchmark for Pakistan’s $43 billion equity market, rose 7.3 percent in the past three years when adjusted for price swings, the top gain among 72 markets worldwide, according to the BLOOMBERG RISKLESS RETURN RANKING. Pakistan had lower stock volatility than 82 percent of the nations including the U.S. (SPX) Over five years, Pakistan’s risk- adjusted returns ranked eighth.

The country’s 190 million people are boosting purchases three times faster than Asian peers as higher rural incomes and record remittances outweigh fighting on the Afghan border, violence in Karachi that led to at least 2,100 deaths this year and power outages that sparked rioting. The region’s fastest earnings growth may increase economic stability, according to Karachi-based Atlas Asset Management Ltd. Foreign investors added to holdings for five straight months, lured by Asia’s lowest valuations and biggest dividend yields.

“Stocks are very cheap and there are some very good businesses in Pakistan,” said Andrew Brudenell, whose HSBC Frontier Markets Fund has returned 18 percent this year, beating 92 percent of peers tracked by Bloomberg, and holds more shares in the country than are represented in benchmark indexes. “We still think there’s some positive growth to come from the markets.”

Earnings in the KSE 100 index advanced 45 percent during the past year, the largest gain among 17 Asian equity indexes, and this month hit the highest level since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2005.

Consumer spending in Pakistan has increased at a 26 percent average pace the past three years, compared with 7.7 percent for Asia, according to data compiled by Euromonitor International, a consumer research firm. While the growth in Pakistan may slow to 6.6 percent in 2012, it will still exceed the 5.3 percent pace in Asia, according to Euromonitor estimates.

Engro Foods Ltd. (EFOODS), a Karachi-based seller of dairy products, reported a 214 percent jump in net income for the third quarter, while Unilever Pakistan Ltd. (ULEVER), a unit of the world’s second- biggest consumer-goods company, had a 36 percent gain, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Dividends in Pakistan have also climbed at the fastest pace in the region. Payouts increased 49 percent in the past 12 months, giving the KSE 100 index a dividend yield of 6.6 percent, double the 3.3 percent average in Asia, Bloomberg data show.
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Foreign investors have purchased a net $153 million of Pakistan shares since the beginning of July, according to data from the Karachi Stock Exchange. Overseas holdings amount to about 20 percent of the bourse’s free float, or shares available for trading, according to Adnan Katchi, the head of international equity sales at Arif Habib Ltd.

Bond investors are also growing more confident. Pakistan’s international debt, rated Caa1 at Moody’s Investors Service, or seven levels below investment grade, has returned 32 percent this year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Next Generation Markets Index. Yields hit a two-year low of 8.5 percent on Oct. 26.

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The country is luring more of the world’s biggest consumer brands as spending increases. Debenhams Plc (DEB), the U.K.’s second- largest department-store chain, and Nine West Group Inc., a seller of women’s shoes and handbags owned by New York-based Jones Group Inc. (JNY), opened their first Pakistan outlets this year.....

Pakistan Stocks Best as Violence Ignored: Riskless Return - Bloomberg
 
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^^^ Same post repeated for the THIRD time, at least.
 
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Here's an ET story on Unilever targeting Pakistan market as a priority:

It is a global food and consumer goods giant that serves over 2 billion consumers every day in more than 180 countries around the world, but Unilever’s global management team is convinced that the key to their future success lies in 16 emerging markets, of which Pakistan is one.

Paul Polman, the CEO of Unilever, and Harish Manwani, the chief operating officer, visited Pakistan on Tuesday in what appears to be part of their global push to gear the company’s growth strategy towards emerging markets. “We want to be in every market with more than 100 million consumers,” said Manwani. “And we want to be in every market where the purchasing power of the consumer is growing. Pakistan meets both of those criteria, the first one by quite a lot.”

About 56% of Unilever’s revenues come from emerging markets, a number that Manwani says could rise to as high as 75% over the next few years. In Pakistan, the company operates two subsidiaries, Unilever Pakistan and Unilever Pakistan Foods, both of which are publicly listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange. For the year 2011, the company’s Pakistani subsidiaries earned combined gross revenue of over Rs73 billion, or about 1.3% of the global total for Unilever.

Growth in Pakistan is significantly higher. While Unilever’s global revenues grew by around 5%, revenues in Pakistan grew by a much stronger 9.9%, even when taking into account the rupee’s depreciation against the euro, the company’s global reporting currency. In Pakistani rupees, gross revenues of both companies grew by nearly 17%.

But it is not just the current growth figures that appear to be attracting Unilever’s attention to Pakistan, but rather what is clearly a rapid expansion of the Pakistani middle class, which is causing purchasing power – and thus the propensity to buy branded products – to rise among a wide and diverse array of Pakistani consumers. Unilever is increasingly finding that it is selling its products to everyone from the bank CEO who works on Karachi’s II Chundrigar Road to the small shop owner in rural Sanghar to the grain merchant in a small town outside Sialkot.
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Malik said that the company is actively trying to reach consumers in small towns and rural areas, well beyond the larger cities in the country. The company reaches 50,000 retailers in rural areas, said Malik, a number that keeps on expanding rapidly.

That focus on rural consumers appears to be part of the global strategy: Paul Polman said that Unilever’s connection to farmers and rural communities is part of its efforts to integrate its business strategy with social responsibility. “Over 40% of the world’s population is in agriculture. We want to integrate over 500,000 of them into our global supply chain. They tend to be more reliable suppliers and help us reduce our volatility. In turn, we provide them with a better livelihood,” said Polman.

Unilever’s global CEO was effusive in his praise of the team in Pakistan. “The water conservation techniques pioneered in Pakistan will now be replicated in Unilever factories around the world,” he said. “Pakistan has always provided us with talent, and is in fact exporting talent. Over 55 Pakistanis are now working in senior positions in Unilever all over the world.”...

Food & consumer goods: Unilever targets Pakistan among top priority markets – The Express Tribune
 
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^^^ Same post repeated for the THIRD time, at least.


Come on now VC, Pakistani stocks have hit 3 records in less than 2 weeks - should we not look into why? and what it means?

Actually, I think I would among those who don't get it because really I don't get it, I don't really understand it but it's also true that there is a Pakistan beyond the extremism and violence and we should be mindful of this, if we are to have developed a more complex view of the situation, don't you think?
 
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Well Pakistani posters must NEVER, EVER compare their country with India. Its a joke to compare Pakistan with India. Pakistan is a new country created on an ideology and it must carve its own path out. India was its past. Its future lies in comparing with better countries, not India for God's sake!

unfortunately we dont compare ourselves with anyone else BUT India , for if we did we will be ashamed how bad we are, but certainly this doesnt apply to defense circles which is inevitable as India is enemy #1 , as for other areas we dont have to but still do.
 
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Come on now VC, Pakistani stocks have hit 3 records in less than 2 weeks - should we not look into why? and what it means?

Actually, I think I would among those o don't get it because really I don't get it, I don't really understand it but it's also true that there is a Pakistan beyond the extremism and violence and we should be mindful of this, if we are to have developed a more complex view of the situation, don't you think?

Given that the fundamentals of the economy are simply atrocious, what you have is a stock market bubble that will soon crash. This is a classic "pump-and-dump" scheme in the making. Let's wait for the IMF report that is due shortly.
 
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Given that the fundamentals of the economy are simply atrocious, what you have is a stock market bubble that will soon crash. This is a classic "pump-and-dump" scheme in the making. Let's wait for the IMF report that is due shortly.


I could not agree more that fundamentals are atrocious - but think we are missing a important piece of the picture, that is to say that the Pakistani economy is perhaps much more complex than the figures suggest, particularly as it is a economy that is not necessarily a documented economy.

pump and dump - sure, possibly

IMF report? really, I don't know whether it will serve any purpose other than bailing out the politicos, another bail out program that the same politicos will not honor - it really seems to me that there is a Pakistan economy beyond that which the figures suggest.
 
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I could not agree more that fundamentals are atrocious - but think we are missing a important piece of the picture, that is to say that the Pakistani economy is perhaps much more complex than the figures suggest, particularly as it is a economy that is not necessarily a documented economy.

pump and dump - sure, possibly

IMF report? really, I don't know whether it will serve any purpose other than bailing out the politicos, another bail out program that the same politicos will not honor - it really seems to me that there is a Pakistan economy beyond that which the figures suggest.

Yes, I agree that there is a large informal economy, but it is nowhere near as large, stable, or contributory to government coffers as is being conjectured, and thus cannot be figured into robust analyses.

I agree with your comments about another bailout program, but it only serves to ensnare Pakistan even deeper into the debt trap, one that even the addition of the informal portion of the economy cannot help with.
 
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pump and dump - sure, possibly

Pump and dump applies when share prices rise without proportional increase in revenue and profits growth.

This is clearly not the case in Pakistan.

In fact, Pakistani shares are still the best bargain in the world in spite of a big run up in KSE-100 this year.

Here's an excerpt from Barron's, November 17, 2012:

Even with the run-up (in KSE-100), Andrew Brudenell, manager of the HSBC Frontier Markets fund (HSFAX) in London, says Pakistan is one of the cheapest markets he follows, at about seven times earnings. He notes that earnings growth has kept pace with the market. The firms, he adds, are typically cash-rich, boast strong return on equity levels in the 20% range, and pay good dividends. In Pakistan, the informal, cash-based economy for goods and services is larger than the formal economy.

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's GDP Grossly Underestimated, Stocks Highly Undervalued
 
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Pump and dump applies when share prices rise without proportional increase in revenue and profits growth.

This is clearly not the case in Pakistan...............

Are the "increases" in revenues and profits being quoted in Pakistani rupees?
 
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Are the "increases" in revenues and profits being quoted in Pakistani rupees?

It's irrelevant for price-earnings multiples which are around 7 for KSE-100 companies, the lowest in Asia.
 
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I really dont know what this Euphoria is all about in terms of KSE

If I look at last 5 years of trailing returns, they are under 2% (KSE was close to 14K in Nov 2007)

And if I factor in the currency depreciation for PKR, KSE has actually given a CAGR of -6% in last 5 years

What am I missing here ??
 
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Easy on, Karan - What Euphoria? It's only a perspective that is being discussed - that perspective argues that there may be more to Pakistan than doom and gloom - no reason to panic
 
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