Following the end of the Soviet Union, the then nuclear-armed new black sea state of Ukraine- the third largest nuclear weapon state until May 1992- abandoned it’s massive nuclear arsenal amid US, British and Russian security guarantees that the territorial integrity, and sovereignty of the largest Euro-state will not be violated.
Well that was then, and this is now that Crimea has gone to Russia.
The poor Ukrainians, as they gave up their nuclear deterrent, didn’t realize that a hollow foreign security guarantee, minus an indigenous military muscle, could only ensure a recipe for sheer aggression. The theory has materialized. Today, when the Crimean secession from Ukraine is no longer a mystery, it’s principal security guarantor, the super power USA and the West are noticeably absent from the zone of their commitment to the territorial defence of kiev. The US, and it’s allies have ruled out any military resolution of the conflict with Moscow.
Thus, comfortably trampling their own security guarantees, the US and its partners are telling the disarmed Ukraine that(1) the diplomatic solution is the only way forward over Crimea, (2) if diplomacy fails, a punishing sanctions-regime shall be imposed on the aggressor Moscow, and (3)in the mean time, the US-led moral support for Ukraine shall continue to reclaim Crimea. The news is that the US led reaction has found some 32 culprits though Ukraine has been promised more sanctions. How nations fall in their post independence period is exemplified by Ukraine’s leadership blunders. It’s leaders, as mentioned earlier, jettisoned their ultimate defence—their nuclear arsenal- under US-Russian guarantees.
They failed to rebuild their conventional forces. Their corruption did not let them manage the economy that remains in shambles. They could not understand the strategic sensitivities of relations with Moscow. They kept overlooking the fact that, despite becoming independent, and disliking the Russians, their fate was intertwined with Russia in almost every conceivable area from the bonds of common history, geography, culture, people, politics, trade, commerce, exports, and the energy supply from Moscow- their lifeline- to the presence of Russia’s strategic black sea fleet base in Crimea, and the list goes on.
Despite these evident realities, the men in Ukraine could not figure out that their desire for strategic integration with the West, and NATO coupled with a deliberate show of overt disdain for Russia could cost them, as it actually has, not only their sovereignty, but also their territorial integrity— which means the secession, in this case, of the Russian majority Crimea from Ukraine.
In fact, the other Russian speaking parts of Ukraine could very well follow the same route of secession for their ethnic linkage with Moscow. A small, defenseless state, Living in a supper power neighborhood, and challenging its might, and strategic interests, cannot get away with the arrogance as demonstrated by Ukraine’s interim leadership, particularly, in over throwing it’s elected pro-Moscow president, Mr Yanukovich, inadditionto the euphoric Anti-Moscow street celebrations, and governmental vows to be quickly associated with the EU, and the NATO—the main theme of anti Yanukovich campaign. The Ukrainian leadership is out of touch with the bitter reality even now when UKraine has fallen apart. While sitting next to US president, and later addressing the UNSC, Mr. Yatsenyuk, the interim prime minister of Ukraine vowed never to surrender to Moscow at a time when the preferred strategy, under similar circumstances, should have been one of deeply, and swiftly engaging Russia.
Ukraine’s blind reliance on the West and it’s mindless confrontation with Russia bear enough testimony to how the leadership failure ends up leading a beleaguered state to the very point of committing a strategic suicide. Ukraine befell its present predicament, not only for it’s political misjudgment, but also for the well orchestrated media- backed US-led incitement of anti-Yanukovich, anti-Russia hate-movement in Ukraine. The Western propaganda, that Ukraine belongs to the West, demonized the image of Russia as an obstacle, and sought the ouster of MR Yanukovich, with the direction that Ukraine has to be liberated from “evil Russia” like Lithuania, and the other ex-Russian republics It could have served as a great strategy if Ukraine had the requisite nuclear ,and conventional deterrent, strong economic punch, and the Western military assistance of which It has none. The 1994 Budapest security guarantees are a sitting duck.
Ukraine, decapitated via it’s denuclearization by the US and Russia, which is not even being alluded to in the current crises, is simply meandering in the US-Euro rhetoric . The Western calculation that Moscow would not so forcefully react against the US- led Ukrainian revolt miserably failed. Today, Crimea’s secession from Ukraines’s geography through a Moscow backed referendum, has, without a single bullet being fired in this process, exposed the hypocrisy, and the hollowness of the US-British guarantees to Kiev. Brother Ukraine, says the US, there is no military option on the table.
Lessons: At present, the militarily abandoned Ukraine can only complain before the comity of nations as it has, neither thise 1900 nuclear weapons it traded in 1994 for the empty guarantees given by the US , UK, and Russia, nor the conventional power it once had- 780,000 standing forces curtailed to under 100 thousand after independence in 1991. Today, the March 16 referendum based outcome—Crimea’s decision for secession— seals the dismemberment of Ukraine.
Thus, the lesson for Pakistan, and the Pakistani Arms forces is abundantly clear. The word betrayal defines US foreign policy, and who knows it better that the people of Ukraine, and the bleeding Syria. There is no second chance. No security guarantee equals the guarantee of nuclear deterrence which the US has been seeking to put an end to ever since Islamabad became a nuclear power.
The need is greater than ever to double the quantum and lethality of the Pak- nuclear warheads, as well as increasing the range and accuracy of their delivery systems. Pakistan cannot afford any betrayal. The United States cannot be trusted - a message from Kiev to Islamabad.
Ukraine’s message to Pakistan
