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UK reviews Falklands defence as Russia offers Su-24s to Argentina

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UK reviews Falklands defence as Russia offers Su-24s to Argentina
Gareth Jennings, London - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
28 December 2014
UK_-_main.jpg

The Su-24 has a potent anti-surface and anti-shipping capability, making it a serious threat to UK forces defending the Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is to conduct a review of its plans for the defence of the Falkland Islands following reports that Russia is to supply Argentina with Sukhoi Su-24 'Fencer' strike aircraft, UK media reported on 28 December.

The review follows a report in the Daily Express newspaper that Russia is to lease 12 Su-24s to the Argentine Air Force (Fuerza Aérea Argentina - FAA) in return for foodstuffs.

According to the media report, the Su-24s would be delivered to the FAA ahead of the introduction into service of the first of the UK's two Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers in 2020 (full-operating capability for the Queen Elizabeth is currently slated for 2023).

The potential arrival of Su-24s into Argentine service ahead of the introduction into service of the UK's new aircraft carriers could pose a "real window of vulnerability", MoD officials reportedly told the Daily Express .

With Argentina arguing sovereignty over the islands that it refers to as Islas Malvinas, the UK maintains a force of four Eurofighter Typhoon combat aircraft, Rapier surface-to-air missiles, and about 1,200 troops permanently stationed on the Falklands. These are supported by visiting Royal Navy warships, and while the MoD won't comment publically on such deployments it is understood that nuclear-powered attack submarines are often sent to the South Atlantic as a further layer of defence for the islands.

While the MoD declined to address the specific threat of the Su-24s with IHS Jane's , it did provide a statement which read, "The MoD undertakes regular assessments of potential military threats to the Falkland Islands to ensure that we retain an appropriate level of defensive capability to address any threats. We continue to remain vigilant and committed to the protection of the Falkland Islanders."

ANALYSIS
For some years now, Argentina has been trying to replace its antiquated and increasingly unserviceable Dassault Mirage IIIEA, IAI Dagger, and McDonnell Douglas A-4 Skyhawk fighter fleets with a newer and more capable type.

Reported procurements of surplus Spanish Mirage F1s, Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) Kfirs, Chengdu Aircraft Corporation FC-1/JF-17, and Saab Gripen E/Fs all appear to have stalled for either economic or political reasons (the proposed buy of the Gripen E/F was effectively vetoed by the UK, which manufactures many of the aircraft's systems).

What makes the Su-24 report so alarming for the UK government is that the proposed lease from Russia would not likely be affected by either economic or political reasons, and so is much more likely to progress.

The Su-24 is an old design, and so, on paper at least, should easily be defended against by the Royal Air Force's Typhoons and the Rapier surface-to-air missiles. However, wars aren't fought on paper, and the Su-24's combat radius of 565 n miles (1,046 km; 650 miles) - hi-lo-hi with 3,000 kg (6,615 lb) of weapons and two external tanks - means it would be able to strike at the Falkland Islands without the need for aerial refuelling. Its supersonic performance would also reduce the time afforded to the UK defences to react to any such attack.

While the Su-24's nine hardpoints means it can carry a wide range of air-to-surface weaponry, it is its ability to carry anti-shipping missiles such as the Kh-31A (AS-17 'Krypton') that make it such a potent threat to UK forces in the region. If Russia were to back up its offer of the leased aircraft with weapon systems such as these (Iran also makes its own weapon systems for the Su-24, which could be offered to Argentina), then the Su-24 could pose a real problem for UK plans for the defence of the Falkland Islands.



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The Falklands are indefensible with our current navy. We need a build up and fast unless we want to lose them.
 
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meh, should take a play off the Israeli play book a preemptive strike with the Astute class subs or Typhoon

they also need to update the SAMs on the Falklands as well Rapier doesn't have the range. a obvious upgrade would be the Eurosam SAMP/T or MIM-23 Hawk.
 
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IMHO the Falklands will be in Argentinian hands once again during my lifetime. The UK is in decline both militarily and economically and whilst Argentina is hardly in the ascendancy the game is going to change now that the South American giant that is Brazil has officially backed Argentina's claim on the islands. The UK will struggle to take on Brazil in her own backyard today and won't be able to in a decade or so.

I doubt this will be sorted out militarily but once the UK government and people see their claim on the islands are untenable diplomatically some sort of deal will be put together.
 
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IMHO the Falklands will be in Argentinian hands once again during my lifetime. The UK is in decline both militarily and economically and whilst Argentina is hardly in the ascendancy the game is going to change now that the South American giant that is Brazil has officially backed Argentina's claim on the islands. The UK will struggle to take on Brazil in her own backyard today and won't be able to in a decade or so.

I doubt this will be sorted out militarily but once the UK government and people see their claim on the islands are untenable diplomatically some sort of deal will be put together.
Brazilians hate Argentina. They will never fight for her.
 
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Brazilians hate Argentina. They will never fight for her.
I'm not sure what the Brazilian-Argentian relationship is but on the Falklands they are with them:

Brazil helped Argentina in Falklands War by 'supplying aeroplanes, bombs and ammunition' in fight against British forces | Daily Mail Online


"This is the first time that all of Latin America is with Argentina in this claim [to the islands], even Brazil, even Chile," said Gabriela Cerruti, a Buenos Aires

BBC News - Falkland Islands: How strong is Argentina's position?



In the framework of examining defence and security issues, Brazil considers inescapable that this conference addresses the fair claims of Argentina over the Malvinas Islands…as has already happened with Mercosur, Unasur and Celac”, said Brazilian Defence minister Celso Amorim.

Brazil strongly supports Argentina Falklands’ claim at defence ministers’ summit — MercoPress



And then there is news that Brazil will sell Brazilian made Gripens to Argentina

Argentina to negotiate with Brazil for Gripen E multirole fighters - IHS Jane's 360

Argentina hopes to renew air power following Brazil's deal to manufacture Gripen fighter jets — MercoPress



South America and particular Brazil are on the ascendancy and they are united on this issue, keeping hold of a tiny group of islands thousands of miles away from our shores is going to become increasingly untenable for us.
 
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I'm not sure what the Brazilian-Argentian relationship is but on the Falklands they are with them:

Brazil helped Argentina in Falklands War by 'supplying aeroplanes, bombs and ammunition' in fight against British forces | Daily Mail Online




BBC News - Falkland Islands: How strong is Argentina's position?





Brazil strongly supports Argentina Falklands’ claim at defence ministers’ summit — MercoPress



And then there is news that Brazil will sell Brazilian made Gripens to Argentina

Argentina to negotiate with Brazil for Gripen E multirole fighters - IHS Jane's 360

Argentina hopes to renew air power following Brazil's deal to manufacture Gripen fighter jets — MercoPress



South America and particular Brazil are on the ascendancy and they are united on this issue, keeping hold of a tiny group of islands thousands of miles away from our shores is going to become increasingly untenable for us.
"Support" is something that has many varying degrees. I don't think the support will amount to anything more than the diplomatic kind. The French technically "support" us but will they do anything about it? We have mostly good relations with Brazil as well as countries like Chile and Mexico.
Of course holding on to the islands will be difficult. But even if we are defeated I would rather go down fighting then surrender.
 
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The Falklands are at the mercy of Argentina if they go to war tomorrow with all the troop reductions that took place and the incomplete navy(No active carrier at the moment I mean), no sane PM would order another expedition unless Margaret Thatcher rose from her grave and gave a kick on Camerons butt.
 
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"Support" is something that has many varying degrees. I don't think the support will amount to anything more than the diplomatic kind.
Supplying Gripen Es(although primarily due to economic benefits for Brazil) to Argentina falls under this support and will be a game changer for the UK's ability to defend the islands. And even diplomatically if you have a strong united voice coming out of South America on this issue it will make things incredibly awkward for the UK on the global stage especially if the South Americans start acting as one on the issue on the international stage. No one is going to back the UK-no one, and we will be entirely isolated.

The Falklands are at the mercy of Argentina if they go to war tomorrow with all the troop reductions that took place and the incomplete navy(No active carrier at the moment I mean), no sane PM would order another expedition unless Margaret Thatcher rose from her grave and gave a kick on Camerons butt.
The Argentinian military is in a sorry state right now, they'd have trouble taking and holding the islands as it stands. Like I said, the situation will be very different in a decade especially if the Brazilians are on their side.
 
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Supplying Gripen Es(although primarily due to economic benefits for Brazil) to Argentina falls under this support and will be a game changer for the UK's ability to defend the islands. And even diplomatically if you have a strong united voice coming out of South America on this issue it will make things incredibly awkward for the UK on the global stage especially if the South Americans start acting as one on the issue on the international stage. No one is going to back the UK, no one and we will be entirely isolated.
Unless Argentina's neighbours join her in launching an invasion it makes no difference to us what they think on the issue. There would be no point in sanctioning us for example because we don't trade with them much anyway.
As for "isolated" have you looked at Israel lately? They tell the world to get lost and never suffer for it.
 
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The Falklands are indefensible with our current navy. We need a build up and fast unless we want to lose them.
From what I've heard, the Brits put up enough defenses on the Falkland Islands, that any attempted to take it would be met with extreme resistance. They set up the defenses so that they would buy enough time for back up from UK to arrive and push back an assault from Argentina. Don't worry too much, even with the current naval capabilities, the UK is still able to defend the Island from aggression.

On the other hand, Argentina needs to upgrade it's military capabilities pronto. It's naval and air arms are in dismal condition, and won't last long in a fight against anyone, let alone the UK. The Su-24 is a decent option, but it is a temporary solution to a long term problem, as the Su-24 is also considered obsolete by modern standards, and should only be used as a temporary fill in, until Argentina can afford more modern planes.
 
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UK reviews Falklands defence as Russia offers Su-24s to Argentina
Gareth Jennings, London - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
28 December 2014
UK_-_main.jpg

The Su-24 has a potent anti-surface and anti-shipping capability, making it a serious threat to UK forces defending the Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is to conduct a review of its plans for the defence of the Falkland Islands following reports that Russia is to supply Argentina with Sukhoi Su-24 'Fencer' strike aircraft, UK media reported on 28 December.

The review follows a report in the Daily Express newspaper that Russia is to lease 12 Su-24s to the Argentine Air Force (Fuerza Aérea Argentina - FAA) in return for foodstuffs.

According to the media report, the Su-24s would be delivered to the FAA ahead of the introduction into service of the first of the UK's two Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers in 2020 (full-operating capability for the Queen Elizabeth is currently slated for 2023).

The potential arrival of Su-24s into Argentine service ahead of the introduction into service of the UK's new aircraft carriers could pose a "real window of vulnerability", MoD officials reportedly told the Daily Express .

With Argentina arguing sovereignty over the islands that it refers to as Islas Malvinas, the UK maintains a force of four Eurofighter Typhoon combat aircraft, Rapier surface-to-air missiles, and about 1,200 troops permanently stationed on the Falklands. These are supported by visiting Royal Navy warships, and while the MoD won't comment publically on such deployments it is understood that nuclear-powered attack submarines are often sent to the South Atlantic as a further layer of defence for the islands.

While the MoD declined to address the specific threat of the Su-24s with IHS Jane's , it did provide a statement which read, "The MoD undertakes regular assessments of potential military threats to the Falkland Islands to ensure that we retain an appropriate level of defensive capability to address any threats. We continue to remain vigilant and committed to the protection of the Falkland Islanders."

ANALYSIS
For some years now, Argentina has been trying to replace its antiquated and increasingly unserviceable Dassault Mirage IIIEA, IAI Dagger, and McDonnell Douglas A-4 Skyhawk fighter fleets with a newer and more capable type.

Reported procurements of surplus Spanish Mirage F1s, Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) Kfirs, Chengdu Aircraft Corporation FC-1/JF-17, and Saab Gripen E/Fs all appear to have stalled for either economic or political reasons (the proposed buy of the Gripen E/F was effectively vetoed by the UK, which manufactures many of the aircraft's systems).

What makes the Su-24 report so alarming for the UK government is that the proposed lease from Russia would not likely be affected by either economic or political reasons, and so is much more likely to progress.

The Su-24 is an old design, and so, on paper at least, should easily be defended against by the Royal Air Force's Typhoons and the Rapier surface-to-air missiles. However, wars aren't fought on paper, and the Su-24's combat radius of 565 n miles (1,046 km; 650 miles) - hi-lo-hi with 3,000 kg (6,615 lb) of weapons and two external tanks - means it would be able to strike at the Falkland Islands without the need for aerial refuelling. Its supersonic performance would also reduce the time afforded to the UK defences to react to any such attack.

While the Su-24's nine hardpoints means it can carry a wide range of air-to-surface weaponry, it is its ability to carry anti-shipping missiles such as the Kh-31A (AS-17 'Krypton') that make it such a potent threat to UK forces in the region. If Russia were to back up its offer of the leased aircraft with weapon systems such as these (Iran also makes its own weapon systems for the Su-24, which could be offered to Argentina), then the Su-24 could pose a real problem for UK plans for the defence of the Falkland Islands.



(606 words)
After declaring NATO no 1 threat Russia is openly going against and but if they want to really make west life miserable they should offer SU-30 and SU-34 to Argentina and other countries who have problems with west
 
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Unless Argentina's neighbours join her in launching an invasion it makes no difference to us what they think on the issue. There would be no point in sanctioning us for example because we don't trade with them much anyway.
It doesn't need to be anything as aggressive as sanctions or a united joint military invasion. South America is going to be an increasingly large player on the world stage and thus their ability to influence global affairs will grow. That the UK doesn't trade much with S.America is utterly irrelevant because S.America trades with Asia and N.America and, like I said, the UK is entirely isolated on this issue- the rest of the world will put pressure on the UK on this issue.

One last colonial relic whose days are numbered......
 
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