The U.S. attempt to destabilize China is rational. The U.S. does not want to see the emergence of another country with global influence and power. The problem is how do you prevent the emergence of a near-peer.
Against a mature thermonuclear power like China, military means don't make sense. The other choice is to destabilize China's society and cause a change in government from the inside through her own people.
The attempts at fostering Tibetan and Uighur rebellions failed. The number of Tibetans and Uighurs is simply too small to make a difference among China's 1.3 billion Han citizens. The U.S. has now recognized that the key is to "capture" the minds of young Hans. If the U.S. can successfully bring about an uncensored Chinese internet, the U.S. can directly communicate the benefits of two-party rule to young Hans.
If the U.S. is successful in bringing about two-party rule in China then China will devolve into an inefficient government. There is an example of two-party ethnic-Chinese rule on Taiwan. I cringe every time that I see the KMT and DPP legislators fight (i.e. hair-pulling, punching, kicking, food-throwing, chair-throwing, screaming, etc.) on tv and aired in the BBC video section.
Anyway, the U.S. goal is to end efficient one-party rule in China and change it to a messy two-party rule. The two parties will be too busy fighting each other instead of governing the country. Beyond that, the ruling party would have little energy or time to think about the United States.
The prototype for changing a government is Gorbachev's glasnost and perestroika. Gorbachev was trying to save the Soviet Union. He believed that if he unleashed "free speech/openness" and economic "restructuring" then Russia could leap ahead of China's incremental reforms and modernize more quickly. It turns out that modernizing a large economy is not that simple. However, Gorbachev's policies did manage to overthrow the Soviet regime and lead to its replacement with Yeltsin's Russia.
In the Ukraine and Georgia, the United States experimented and sought to replace the autocratic regimes of Ukraine and Georgia. By funding and using its influence through non-governmental organizations (i.e. NGOs), the United States successfully overthrew the governments of Ukraine and Georgia in the Orange and Rose revolutions.
However, the Chinese government was also watching the experiment. After seeing its efficacy, the Chinese government responded by restricting the activities of NGOs on its soil to prevent a similar social disruption.
There is an important difference between Chinese society and the societies in Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia. The people in Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia wanted to change their governments and way of life because they thought it would help them modernize and attain West European living standards.
Instead of a better life, Yeltsin's Russian economy collapsed by 50% and the Russian people were living in misery. Yeltsin resigned as president and autocratic Putin restored order to Russia. Gorbachev's glasnost and perestroika failed.
Similarly, in the Ukraine, a pro-Western government could not solve the corruption and failing Ukrainian economy. President Yushchenko has already lost in the first round of his reelection. He will be replaced by a more pro-Russian Yanukovich or Timoshenko. The Orange revolution has failed.
The Rose revolution in Georgia brought a pro-Western Saakashvili to power. Saakashvili launched an unwise military attack on Russian peacekeepers. Georgia incurred severe military, political, and economic damage in its war with Russia. Russia has effectively annexed 20% of Georgian territory in the former Georgian provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Rose revolution has failed.
Chinese citizens have seen the economic misery that the people in Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia have suffered. Most Chinese people are not interested in overthrowing the effective CCP government. During the past 30 years, the CCP has delivered 9% annual economic growth. No sane citizenry would want to change a government with 30 years of experience in creating unparalleled economic growth.
U.S. attempts to create a "color" revolution (i.e. orange or rose) in China are unlikely to succeed. China has already been modernizing for thirty years. With the Chinese bullet trains, everyone can see that China's modernization is accelerating. The CCP has delivered economic prosperity, political stability, and gradual improvements in personal freedoms. Among the Chinese people, the approval rating for the CCP is between 80% to 90%.
Like most mature and stable countries, whether it's the U.S., China, Japan, or Germany, outsiders cannot really change the society and domestic affairs of China. The United States should try a new strategy.
I recommend fixing America's economic problems and federal budget deficit and debt. The best course of action is for America to negotiate with China from a position of economic strength and let the Chinese people decide on their own preference of domestic political structure. Trying to convince the Chinese to adopt a Yeltsin, Yushchenko, or Saakashvili type of government is never going to work.
