Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

[what]

I think its obvious that HTS is allowed to control Idlib, so the obersavation mission can be ended end Assad can steamroll HTS.

 

[BordoEnes]

Idlib can be written off already. The moment that HTS became the dominant group in Idlib there was very little that Turkey could or was even willing to do to take it back. We will probably trade Idlib in for North-Western Syria and the safe zone, which makes sense. I am staunchly against these types of Jihadist/salafist groups, especialy one which we have little control over.

 

[xenon54 out]

One way or another Assad is gonna take control of those areas since he seems to be the winner of the civil war, i think Turkey will gradually give up idlib and further secure OB & ES areas.
The priority shifted from Assad to ypg long ago, the only question is how a cooperation of those two can be prevented.

 

[HannibalBarca]

One way or another Assad is gonna take control of those areas since he seems to be the winner of the civil war, i think Turkey will gradually give up idlib and further secure OB & ES areas.
The priority shifted from Assad to ypg long ago, the only question is how a cooperation of those two can be prevented.

Idlib is the first step for ASSad... After it will be ES/OB and so on...
If he succeeded once why not twice...

I see no "Happy Ending" in it... TR border will be flooded by few Millions, and if they don't get into TR, they will go into OB/ES areas...and The Power balance will also shift later on...
And The cycle will continue...

Many ppl seems to put all their eggs into an "Hypothetical" future (aka Few Km of Desert at the Border)... instead of finding a solution in what they already have today...

 

[kartal1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1090649379206283274

 

[HannibalBarca]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1090649379206283274

Seems... their HTS version is taking over their FSA version...

__________

Well seems HTS isn't AQ/ISIS related for US dept anymore...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1090687179066617856

 

[kartal1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1090696591458082823

 

[xenon54 out]

Idlib is the first step for ASSad... After it will be ES/OB and so on...
If he succeeded once why not twice...

I see no "Happy Ending" in it... TR border will be flooded by few Millions, and if they don't get into TR, they will go into OB/ES areas...and The Power balance will also shift later on...
And The cycle will continue...

Many ppl seems to put all their eggs into an "Hypothetical" future (aka Few Km of Desert at the Border)... instead of finding a solution in what they already have today...

And how do you expect Turkey to justify the occupation of OB and ES areas permanently? I mean on which legal basis would Turkey get around international law?
Assad cant attack as long as Turkish forces are on those areas but sooner or later Turkey will pull out too like everyone else. The side that Turkey supported lost the war and this is the consequence whether we like it or not.

 

[HannibalBarca]

And how do you expect Turkey to justify the occupation of OB and ES areas permanently? I mean on which legal basis would Turkey get around international law?
Assad cant attack as long as Turkish forces are on those areas but sooner or later Turkey will pull out too like everyone else. The side that Turkey supported lost the war and this is the consequence whether we like it or not.

You don't need to have a physical foot in those area to have a say in it.
TR just need to creat a Self Governed Body, that could integrate all side of the Spectrum present in the Rebel areas... aka Creating some sort of a State, like you see in North Cyprus. And still remaining TR alliance btw each others.

The International maiden is meaningless... as long as a solution (+Sponsor) is given, then they will go with it... their only problem is when there is none at the end of the conflict...

Therefore, creating this self govern body who could integrate every sides...TR wouldn't need to stay there and neither seen as an invader by their enemies... and yet keeping the area safe, by her alliance and still maintaining indirect influence by their commitment in that "construction". Whatever Economically or Military

A slight different version of N-Cyprus in the 21st century...

But by letting go more areas, like Idlib to ASSad... then the Answer is simple... those area in the North will someday be under ASSad hands and the Refugee crisis will continue... and those 4Mil in TR... will be nothing in comparison to what is coming...

 

[kartal1]

And how do you expect Turkey to justify the occupation of OB and ES areas permanently? I mean on which legal basis would Turkey get around international law?
Assad cant attack as long as Turkish forces are on those areas but sooner or later Turkey will pull out too like everyone else. The side that Turkey supported lost the war and this is the consequence whether we like it or not.

He is living the perfect dream of Turkey annexing everything including the radical Islamist terrorist sh!thole in which Idlib has unfortunately turned and save all the civilians which did nothing against the terrorists which we don't support and also their terrorist savers which put at risk all of Idlib by launching strikes onto Russian and SAA positions, the rightfully Arab and Syrian territories which are Deir Ezzor because of their oil and the terrorist nest full of brainwashed Kurds and sleeping cells "Rojava" so they would be burden onto their Muslim brother Turkey which is the leader of the "Ummah" under the leader of the world Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The typical Muslim Brotherhood genius plan to counter Israel, the Saudis and the US which is always fvcked up because of the geniuses behind those plans. He still can't understand that the war is over and both entities Assad supporters and opposition will live together in united Syrian State and the real combat will start politically. He still thinks that the terrorists from HTS can turn the end of the war on their side and Assad, Iran and Russia will magically be deleted as a factors and the supreme opposition with its face of terrorists and foreign fighters will rule Syria and declare Shariah in which they would lash women for hot looks or if not they would be able to manage the Islamic State of Idlib (imaginary terrorist sh!thole which will be no different to the nastiest places under Taliban control in Afghanistan). He prefers to fvck up Turkey just because he believes that the people we will shelter will be good Muslim brothers and sisters and the good old days from the Ottoman Empire will be back when multiculturalism ruled and eventually destroyed the empire with foreign help.

Do not try to understand him because you couldn't. He thinks for his Muslim brothers and sisters from HTS and Idlib more than he thinks about what will be Turkey's position. He prefers Turkish soldiers to be there as human shields and prefers to defend the hundreds of thousands Syrian youth which prefer to be in Antalya on the beaches, to steal, abuse Turkish girls and fight in Istanbul, to take the work places of Turks in Kahramanmaras or just to be like leaches which are sucking Turkish blood from social security schemes rather than go back, take the weapons and fight for their precious land.

He expects Turkey to take under protection the pigs which rejected Turkish backed control, united National Army comparable to the future Kurdish militias in the new Syrian State, forming of official representatives to participate into the Turkish backed political solution processes and all the benefits which are following it. He advocates the same scums which are using "Islamic" slogans and the name "Shariah" which used to spread terror and do suicide bombings chanting "Allahu Akbar" and praise the killed as martyrs.

 

[xenon54 out]

You don't need to have a physical foot in those area to have a say in it.
TR just need to creat a Self Governed Body, that could integrate all side of the Spectrum present in the Rebel areas... aka Creating some sort of a State, like you see in North Cyprus. And still remaining TR alliance btw each others.

The International maiden is meaningless... as long as a solution (+Sponsor) is given, then they will go with it... their only problem is when there is none at the end of the conflict...

Therefore, creating this self govern body who could integrate every sides...TR wouldn't need to stay there and neither seen as an invader by their enemies... and yet keeping the area safe, by her alliance and still maintaining indirect influence by their commitment in that "construction". Whatever Economically or Military

A slight different version of N-Cyprus in the 21st century...

But by letting go more areas, like Idlib to ASSad... then the Answer is simple... those area in the North will someday be under ASSad hands and the Refugee crisis will continue... and those 4Mil in TR... will be nothing in comparison to what is coming...

Cyprus is a bad exsample here, Turkey is one of the guarantor powers of the island and its inteferance was legally justified.
Truth is as soon as Turkey pulls out and Assad/Russia decide to get those places back there is virtually nothing that can stop them.
Turkey is not a superpower to be able to act outside international law only US can do that, Turkeys option are limited and even the cross border operation itself was more than anyone would have expected.
A proxy state cant survive against SAA with Russian support, for the protection Turkey would need ground troops which is obviously not goona be the case forever.

But one thing is for sure the pre war Syria was a way better neighbor for Turkey, Erdogan took the risk to support a potential future goverment which was rightful act by itself, even thought the methods are debatable, yet we have to see it as it is, the horse that Turkey has put his bet on lost the race.
I just hope that whatever they are planning in Ankara it results in the least possible damage for Turkey.

He is living the perfect dream of Turkey annexing everything including the radical Islamist terrorist sh!thole in which Idlib has unfortunately turned and save all the civilians which did nothing against the terrorists which we don't support and also their terrorist savers which put at risk all of Idlib by launching strikes onto Russian and SAA positions, the rightfully Arab and Syrian territories which are Deir Ezzor because of their oil and the terrorist nest full of brainwashed Kurds and sleeping cells "Rojava" so they would be burden onto their Muslim brother Turkey which is the leader of the "Ummah" under the leader of the world Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The typical Muslim Brotherhood genius plan to counter Israel, the Saudis and the US which is always fvcked up because of the geniuses behind those plans. He still can't understand that the war is over and both entities Assad supporters and opposition will live together in united Syrian State and the real combat will start politically. He still thinks that the terrorists from HTS can turn the end of the war on their side and Assad, Iran and Russia will magically be deleted as a factors and the supreme opposition with its face of terrorists and foreign fighters will rule Syria and declare Shariah in which they would lash women for hot looks or if not they would be able to manage the Islamic State of Idlib (imaginary terrorist sh!thole which will be no different to the nastiest places under Taliban control in Afghanistan). He prefers to fvck up Turkey just because he believes that the people we will shelter will be good Muslim brothers and sisters and the good old days from the Ottoman Empire will be back when multiculturalism ruled and eventually destroyed the empire with foreign help.

Do not try to understand him because you couldn't. He thinks for his Muslim brothers and sisters from HTS and Idlib more than he thinks about what will be Turkey's position. He prefers Turkish soldiers to be there as human shields and prefers to defend the hundreds of thousands Syrian youth which prefer to be in Antalya on the beaches, to steal, abuse Turkish girls and fight in Istanbul, to take the work places of Turks in Kahramanmaras or just to be like leaches which are sucking Turkish blood from social security schemes rather than go back, take the weapons and fight for their precious land.

He expects Turkey to take under protection the pigs which rejected Turkish backed control, united National Army comparable to the future Kurdish militias in the new Syrian State, forming of official representatives to participate into the Turkish backed political solution processes and all the benefits which are following it. He advocates the same scums which are using "Islamic" slogans and the name "Shariah" which used to spread terror and do suicide bombings chanting "Allahu Akbar" and praise the killed as martyrs.

I dont wanna assume what he personally wishes but i would prefer anything over a state as you describe in your post on our border.

 

[kartal1]

Cyprus is a bad exsample here, Turkey is one of the guarantor powers of the island and its inteferance was legally justified.
Truth is as soon as Turkey pulls out and Assad/Russia decide to get those places back there is virtually nothing that can stop them.
Turkey is not a superpower to be able to act outside international law only US can do that, Turkeys option are limited and even the cross border operation itself was more than anyone would have expected.
A proxy state cant survive against SAA with Russian support, for the protection Turkey would need ground troops which is obviously not goona be the case forever.

But one thing is for sure the pre war Syria was a way better neighbor for Turkey, Erdogan took the risk to support a potential future goverment which was rightful act by itself, even thought the methods are debatable, yet we have to see it as it is, the horse that Turkey has put his bet on lost the race.
I just hope that whatever they are planning in Ankara it results in the least possible damage for Turkey.


I dont wanna assume what he personally wishes but i would prefer anything over a state as you describe in your post on our border.

Those are the results I concluded by discussing with him. He tend to advocate anything including the terrorist organization HTS which is included also in Turkey's terror lists with all of its names and I even signaled Cabatli which didn't gave him much attention there. He prefers anything but Assad while I prefer anything but a terror state on our border no matter if its DEASH, YPG or HTS.

 

[HannibalBarca]

For those putting words into the mouth of others... or drawing "their" conclusions as being the only Truth around...

"Life isn't about being Black or White... Never was...never will... There is always a middle ground... And the one advocating for a middle ground isn't your enemy... whatever you like it or not..."

By giving back legitimacy and power to the ONE entity/Dynasty who nourished for decades your martyrs for the sake of short sighted "emotions" is ridiculous...

 

[CAN_TR]

The moment when TSK retreats (and that will happen) from Idlib, HTS's fate is sealed, carpet bombardments, and thousands of Iranian,Syrian and Russian forces will destroy HTS like did in other locations.

KSA/UAE mercenaries have no place on our border.

 

[kartal1]

For those putting words into the mouth of others... or drawing "their" conclusions as being the only Truth around...

"Life isn't about being Black or White... Never was...never will... There is always a middle ground... And the one advocating for a middle ground isn't your enemy... whatever you like it or not..."

By giving back legitimacy and power to the ONE entity/Dynasty who nourished for decades your martyrs for the sake of short sighted "emotions" is ridiculous...

But giving power to the entities which sworn by the name of Allah that they will fight against the Kafirs and at the same time marking the Turkish soldier as such is very wise move. The same ones that are sabotaging every effort other than the observation points that are serving as a human shield. This doesn't have any future. They will bow or be abolished. White, black, purple call it as you wish. In the end all will have a place in Syria. The Believers, the Kafirs, the People of the Book, the Hypocrites. The slaves of Saud will be assimilated or smashed.