Turkish Oil & Gas Exploration Update & Discussion

[Fenasi Kerim]

You post is out of "Objectivity" please let's stay in the "Tactical" observation/opinion.
But if you need an answer to your pov... Then , you are wrong. Their current military capabilities are in some area superior to TR and others behind. But overall, on paper they are only a bit behind TR.

Everything will play out in Soldiers capabilities...

In the End, Both countries can't win if they engage first/invade the other... No side is significantly stronger to have the upper hand.

Any conflict in the region Turkey will have the advantage since it holds Cyprus, has striking capabilities from their to anywhere in Egypt or Israel. Unless other powers like Britain, US, Russia get involved Israelis, Egyptians and Greeks have no chance against the Turks in this theatre, Turkey simply has to sit back and defend the coastal waters in Cyprus.

I know it is unrealistic to talk about war but just entertainment.

yeah on that case ive got some pretty bad news for u. If u will act we will destroy u. Watch urself

Dude calm down, his a good and objective poster.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Any conflict in the region Turkey will have the advantage since it holds Cyprus, has striking capabilities from their to anywhere in Egypt or Israel. Unless other powers like Britain, US, Russia get involved Israelis, Egyptians and Greeks have no chance against the Turks in this theatre, Turkey simply has to sit back and defend the coastal waters in Cyprus.

I know it is unrealistic to talk about war but just entertainment.

Yes Cyprus and North Syria are the first line of Defence for TR, if the other side decide to "Invade".
But, they have the advantage of Fighter jet ( Combat radius) with the Rafales and MBDA cruise missiles.
Therefore they can turn around Cyprus and go directly to Major TR Coastal cities.

IMO, one of the ways to have the upper hand, will be to get the ability to strike directly from TR lands. and therefore prepare for a land invasion.
Otherwise, such war will last for a very long time and will push both economies at the bottom.

Ofc, if we speak about a war "right now"... In the future, the Dynamic will change. The Q will be" Will it start sooner than anticipated or not..."

 

[Kamil_baku]

Yes Cyprus and North Syria are the first line of Defence for TR, if the other side decide to "Invade".
But, they have the advantage of Fighter jet ( Combat radius) with the Rafales and MBDA cruise missiles.
Therefore they can turn around Cyprus and go directly to Major TR Coastal cities.

IMO, one of the ways to have the upper hand, will be to get the ability to strike directly from TR lands. and therefore prepare for a land invasion.
Otherwise, such war will last for a very long time and will push both economies at the bottom.

Ofc, if we speak about a war "right now"... In the future, the Dynamic will change. The Q will be" Will it start sooner than anticipated or not..."

Actually, Turkey can easily extend the range of current cruise missiles by making them longer and adding more fuel.. Number matters in anti ship capabilities against navy ships. lets say your navy can destroy 60 cruise missile or 100 together, what i fire more and with Turkish AWACS they all will be network enabled... There is no defence there..
Turkey is very tricky country, to be honest, i even believe that it was Turkey who shot Saudi ships in Yemen, or help them with critical technology, thats why, just yesterday Saudis signed 600$ million more contract with Turkish company.

I dont underestimate Egypt, but they dont even have BVR missiles in their f16.. I am also dont want a war with them, but , it is really different when you produce your own technology.. it will be very cheap and at the end you will win..

Israel will never face Turkey on their own.. I would believe if they make SISI to attack Turkey with Greece but these two powers is not enough against Turkey anymore. Even with latest Turkish unmanned fish type mine, they can hunt any navy ship there... You really dont know how to protect yourself against Turkey as they might come up with new ideas each time..

 

[HannibalBarca]

Actually, Turkey can easily extend the range of current cruise missiles by making them longer and adding more fuel.. Number matters in anti ship capabilities against navy ships. lets say your navy can destroy 60 cruise missile or 100 together, what i fire more and with Turkish AWACS they all will be network enabled... There is no defence there..
Turkey is very tricky country, to be honest, i even believe that it was Turkey who shot Saudi ships in Yemen, or help them with critical technology, thats why, just yesterday Saudis signed 600$ million more contract with Turkish company.

I dont underestimate Egypt, but they dont even have BVR missiles in their f16.. I am also dont want a war with them, but , it is really different when you produce your own technology.. it will be very cheap and at the end you will win..

Israel will never face Turkey on their own.. I would believe if they make SISI to attack Turkey with Greece but these two powers is not enough against Turkey anymore. Even with latest Turkish unmanned fish type mine, they can hunt any navy ship there... You really dont know how to protect yourself against Turkey as they might come up with new ideas each time..

I Understand, and share that in a Direct confrontation of assets, TR has the upper hand, that's a fact.
But to win the War, you either Invade them or you need a White flag from them.
Therefore in the situation of "Invasion" I, imo, don't think that neither EGY or TR have the possibility, the assets and the strategy to do so, in this current moment, with current equipment.

This "war possibility" was raised under the Q that " Will TR and EGY go to war for the Cyprus Oil?". Imo They wouldn't, since both lack the complete spectrum of "assets" to fulfill a war to it's End. (at least if the one engaging first, has a strategy to Finish/End it...and not go to war, just for the sake of it...)

But, The possibility of war, if the conflict is kept as it is and explode in like around 2025-2035. At that moment, TR will have more strategic assets to fulfil the "invasion" expedition. As for EGY in that time period, it is not known which assets they seek. The easiest guess will be a similar approach than TR.

 

[universal soldier]

I Understand, and share that in a Direct confrontation of assets, TR has the upper hand, that's a fact.
But to win the War, you either Invade them or you need a White flag from them.
Therefore in the situation of "Invasion" I, imo, don't think that neither EGY or TR have the possibility, the assets and the strategy to do so, in this current moment, with current equipment.

This "war possibility" was raised under the Q that " Will TR and EGY go to war for the Cyprus Oil?". Imo They wouldn't, since both lack the complete spectrum of "assets" to fulfill a war to it's End. (at least if the one engaging first, has a strategy to Finish/End it...and not go to war, just for the sake of it...)

But, The possibility of war, if the conflict is kept as it is and explode in like around 2025-2035. At that moment, TR will have more strategic assets to fulfil the "invasion" expedition. As for EGY in that time period, it is not known which assets they seek. The easiest guess will be a similar approach than TR.

Turkey dosn't have to invade Egypt , the target should be to destroy the egyptian navy , the turkish navy can do that

 

[HannibalBarca]

Turkey dos't have to invade Egypt , the target should be to destroy the egyptian navy , the turkish navy can do that

Let's say you did so... Does that make you the winner of this war?

 

[universal soldier]

Let's say you did so... Does that make you the winner of this war?

Yes , you don't have to invade the enemy to achive victroy , the egyptian navy can be a threat to turkey intrests in the region , a destraction of that threat would be a win for turkey

 

[HannibalBarca]

Yes , you don't have to invade the enemy to achive victroy , the egyptian navy can be a threat to turkey intrests in the region , a destraction of that threat would be a win for turkey

I'm a bit confused... So if EGY Navy is out of the game... EGY lost? that's what you said right?
So the other way around is true also? a TR navy that don't pose a threat anymore mean TR has lost?

As for your point of "Invasion is not needed to win" yes you are right... but Both countries do not have the Tech or a significant power other the other to claim such possibility... Therefore for TR and EGY it's either going full in it by Direct confrontation in each other lands or waiting for a miraculous "White flag" or "Peace deal"

This scenario is made of Two countries who share similar "power access", this is not the same as US/JAP or US/IRQ...

 

[azyr]

I'm a bit confused... So if EGY Navy is out of the game... EGY lost? that's what you said right?
So the other way around is true also? a TR navy that don't pose a threat anymore mean TR has lost?

As for your point of "Invasion is not needed to win" yes you are right... but Both countries do not have the Tech or a significant power other the other to claim such possibility... Therefore for TR and EGY it's either going full in it by Direct confrontation in each other lands or waiting for a miraculous "White flag" or "Peace deal"

This scenario is made of Two countries who share similar "power access", this is not the same as US/JAP or US/IRQ...

Actually I agree with him. Let's think about what this "war" would be about : The surrounding area of Cyprus and the gas located there.

From Egypt POV : To influence that region you need a navy - it's too far away from the mainland for Egypt to continue to exercise her military will in the area once her navy is destroyed.

From the Turkish POV : The area in question is in close proximity to many local bases that would still be able to threaten the area. So even if Turkey loses her navy she still has the upper hand.

Leaving out the obvious military differences between the two countries, at their current state and with the equipment they both posses Egypt starts 1-0 down already.

Of course this is all hypothetical as any such war would quickly involve Greece, Jordan, Israel, Italy and the US.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Actually I agree with him. Let's think about what this "war" would be about : The surrounding area of Cyprus and the gas located there.

From Egypt POV : To influence that region you need a navy - it's too far away from the mainland for Egypt to continue to exercise her military will in the area once her navy is destroyed.

From the Turkish POV : The area in question is in close proximity to many local bases that would still be able to threaten the area. So even if Turkey loses her navy she still has the upper hand.

Leaving out the obvious military differences between the two countries, at their current state and with the equipment they both posses Egypt starts 1-0 down already.

Of course this is all hypothetical as any such war would quickly involve Greece, Jordan, Israel, Italy and the US.

The thing is, EGY navy already pose no threat to TR.
Therefore Declaring a war just to destroy a Fremm is not the ideal thing to do.
Since most of the fight in Cyprus area, will be made by Airstrikes, since both countries are close enough to engage in such tactics. Each Air Force could destroy each other navies...
And then what will happen? Will both of them stop?

So, Imo, if a War should see the light, it should be to at least to cripple the other with no near future to rebuild/rearm. Therefore Many strategic assets in their respective mainlands should be targeted to render them unusable and in the meantime partially destroy the economy sys...
And even in this scenario, both countries got the equipment to do so...

 

[azyr]

The thing is, EGY navy already pose no threat to TR.
Therefore Declaring a war just to destroy a Fremm is not the ideal thing to do.
Since most of the fight in Cyprus area, will be made by Airstrikes, since both countries are close enough to engage in such tactics. Each Air Force could destroy each other navies...
And then what will happen? Will both of them stop?

So, Imo, if a War should see the light, it should be to at least to cripple the other with no near future to rebuild/rearm. Therefore Many strategic assets in their respective mainlands should be targeted to render them unusable and in the meantime partially destroy the economy sys...
And even in this scenario, both countries got the equipment to do so...

Effectively engaging with the air force that close to Turkey and her AA capabilities (which include close aircraft bases) is a much harder scenario to sustain for Egypt though. Wars aren't "won" and "lost" when you lose your base - they're over when it's no longer realistically feasible to maintain and continue them (a la Vietnam, Afghanistan etc. etc.).

Looking at it from this perspective, once both countries lose their navies Egypt will have to de-escalate as you can't rely on your very expensive and fragile air force to push around in the Mediterranean where your enemy has bases and ground infrastructure in place.

I'd say the exact same scenario would apply to Turkey if the "fight" was about an area on Egyptian shores.

The war you are describing is a full on invasion conventional theatre. Neither Turkey nor Egypt will ever push it that far as they both lack the means to do so "effectively" and little to gain from such a scenario.

What we're talking about is a battle to control resources.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Effectively engaging with the air force that close to Turkey and her AA capabilities (which include close aircraft bases) is a much harder scenario to sustain for Egypt though. Wars aren't "won" and "lost" when you lose your base - they're over when it's no longer realistically feasible to maintain and continue them (a la Vietnam, Afghanistan etc. etc.).

Looking at it from this perspective, once both countries lose their navies Egypt will have to de-escalate as you can't rely on your very expensive and fragile air force to push around in the Mediterranean where your enemy has bases and ground infrastructure in place.

I'd say the exact same scenario would apply to Turkey if the "fight" was about an area on Egyptian shores.

The war you are describing is a full on invasion conventional theatre. Neither Turkey nor Egypt will ever push it that far as they both lack the means to do so "effectively" and little to gain from such a scenario.

What we're talking about is a battle to control resources.

Then, as the Primary Q that started all this debate "Will TR and EGY engage in a war over Gas/Oil near Cyprus?" /" Is it realistic to hope for such scenario" and if so, will it be as easy as it sound for TR"

As Said, It's Unlikely. Other means will be used for Ressources control. Since Having a localized war only in " the Med sea" is unlikely and will mostly push each other countries to Attack on each others Strategic assets on MainLand... and will End up by a full scale war, that will be under the "Strike me, and I'll strike you back" 's moto of Operation...Since as Stated and As you did "Both don't have the Means to Effectively lead to an invasion/ to a strategy to end the war"

Therefore, some sensational headlines or Alarmist opinion as " X/Y will go to war against each others for Gas" are not realistic, neither the opinion that say "TR will win in a blink of an eye against EGY"

 

[Kamil_baku]

I Understand, and share that in a Direct confrontation of assets, TR has the upper hand, that's a fact.
But to win the War, you either Invade them or you need a White flag from them.
Therefore in the situation of "Invasion" I, imo, don't think that neither EGY or TR have the possibility, the assets and the strategy to do so, in this current moment, with current equipment.

This "war possibility" was raised under the Q that " Will TR and EGY go to war for the Cyprus Oil?". Imo They wouldn't, since both lack the complete spectrum of "assets" to fulfill a war to it's End. (at least if the one engaging first, has a strategy to Finish/End it...and not go to war, just for the sake of it...)

But, The possibility of war, if the conflict is kept as it is and explode in like around 2025-2035. At that moment, TR will have more strategic assets to fulfil the "invasion" expedition. As for EGY in that time period, it is not known which assets they seek. The easiest guess will be a similar approach than TR.

You are right bro.. Turkey will never go to invade Egypt, never. We talk that in case Egypt attack Turkish gas explotion ships with Greece. Turkey can protect it. And, if you stop those ships, you become the "winner" but no way Turkey will go to invade Egypt as Turkey has many many other issues to face. There is Russia waiting in the north and Greece and Israel on different sides and recently US with their help to Romania after Turkish being close to Russia..

 

[HannibalBarca]

You are right bro.. Turkey will never go to invade Egypt, never. We talk that in case Egypt attack Turkish gas explotion ships with Greece. Turkey can protect it. And, if you stop those ships, you become the "winner" but no way Turkey will go to invade Egypt as Turkey has many many other issues to face. There is Russia waiting in the north and Greece and Israel on different sides and recently US with their help to Romania after Turkish being close to Russia..

EGY knows it also... Sending ships and engage will also cost them a lot, if any "hypothetical" war happen after such incident at sea...
So, both will mostly use "Big Words" and "Threats" and that's it. As long as TR ships stay outside of EGY EEZ, then it's all just "muscles play"and "Political games"

 

[Kamil_baku]

EGY knows it also... Sending ships and engage will also cost them a lot, if any "hypothetical" war happen after such incident at sea...
So, both will mostly use "Big Words" and "Threats" and that's it. As long as TR ships stay outside of EGY EEZ, then it's all just "muscles play"and "Political games"

it is obvious, but Turkey always afraid that US or somebody else might put fake leader in Egypt to make them fight and loose blood, which they did with Irag against Iran.. i think their main reason is to hurt Turkish economy, because any bad news make lira more expensive and thats the only challenge AKP face right now.
Actually, if Egypt want to fight, they can stop letting Turkish ships to pass from red sea. Thats the main risk Turkey face and its trying to get Sudan and Somali for that reason so that never happens.
I am even sure Turkey would love to make relations with EGypt now, its just the Erdogan ego that he said words and cannot take it back.. same with Assad.. once they change, to anybody, Turkey will be the first to jump in as it doesnt work any of these countries to go against each other...

Actually, i was suprised today to see EGypt army in CHinese training with RUssia, Venezuela, Iran.. Egypt is changing sides or what is the reason? as you speak Arabic, You might know more about it..