Turkish Oil & Gas Exploration Update & Discussion

[Bismarck]

EGY has no beef with Iran... That's why we don't portray them in this "Anti-Iranian axis".
As for being friend with israel or not... Let say...Everyone in the Region "Enjoyed" Israel at some point... YOu can't criticize their relation, when almost everyone entertained some with ISR...

US-ISR agenda in the long term,is fundamentally different than many in the Region, including TR-EGY-KSA-IR etc... Therefore, they will mostly alienate those around them... and that will push to the formation of a different kind of Alliances... That...ofc...if no War happen in the meantime...

Ex-President of Egypt Morsi, was pro Erdogan and anti western which we could not accept. So we must change the regime with a pro western and Israel government, not to say Vassal state.

 

[Kiryu]

Then, as the Primary Q that started all this debate "Will TR and EGY engage in a war over Gas/Oil near Cyprus?" /" Is it realistic to hope for such scenario" and if so, will it be as easy as it sound for TR"

Not at all. I initially said following the statements from the Egyptian and israeli ambassadors that they would consider a military option for Turkey that I hoped Turkey had plans to prevent such scenarios.

I do hope Turkey has contingencies in place to take preventative actions if an impending attack seems imminent.

Not sure how that led to talk of all out war and land invasions though but I guess those ambassadors would have to explain what they meant by military intervention.

Preventative measures doesn't mean a land grab or an end sum war of attrition. Being advantageously positioned can be enough to dissuade a reckless el sisi from doing something stupid. Turkey has strategic depth that Egypt doesn't. Egyptian military planners would have to consider how to strike Turkish assets in the Mediterranean while getting past Turkish installations in Cyprus and the East med sea. Don't forget that with Gokturk 2 Turkey will have every military installation of Egypt fully mapped out.
So the possibility of war like you said is very unlikely and Turkey won't go to war over a gas drilling incident. Turkey should ensure that Egyptian military planners know the risks of a "military intervention" against Turkey is too costly for them to be feasible.
The only probability is Egypt's puppet regime may trigger an incident with the assurances of Israeli and American support. In which case they would do well to remember Georgia and Ukraine or even the KRG in Iraq to see how good those assurances are.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Not at all. I initially said following the statements from the Egyptian and israeli ambassadors that they would consider a military option for Turkey that I hoped Turkey had plans to prevent such scenarios.

Not sure how that led to talk of all out war and land invasions though but I guess those ambassadors would have to explain what they meant by military intervention.

Preventative measures doesn't mean a land grab or an end sum war of attrition. Being advantageously positioned can be enough to dissuade a reckless el sisi from doing something stupid. Turkey has strategic depth that Egypt doesn't. Egyptian military planners would have to consider how to strike Turkish assets in the Mediterranean while getting past Turkish installations in Cyprus and the East med sea. Don't forget that with Gokturk 2 Turkey will have every military installation of Egypt fully mapped out.
So the possibility of war like you said is very unlikely and Turkey won't go to war over a gas drilling incident. Turkey should ensure that Egyptian military planners know the risks of a "military intervention" against Turkey is too costly for them to be feasible.
The only probability is Egypt's puppet regime may trigger an incident with the assurances of Israeli and American support. In which case they would do well to remember Georgia and Ukraine or even the KRG in Iraq to see how good those assurances are.

That's why we came to the conclusion, that "No War will happen" Whatever some News outlet or some Ambassadors may say.

 

[CAN_TR]

Where is our Drillship?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1044207496414597120

 

[Test7]

I think they will give technical support on our ship

 

[HannibalBarca]

I think they will give technical support on our ship

They are drilling ships...

 

[Oublious]

Where is our Drillship?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1044207496414597120

This is a extra ship, our drilling ship is working to.

 

[Dante80]

A question, not sure if someone can provide some insight. I've read today an article in Greek press (newspaper Kathimerini) about Fatih. Linking below.

Crew on Turkey’s Fatih drill ship said to be on verge of quitting
http://www.ekathimerini.com/232875/...ih-drill-ship-said-to-be-on-verge-of-quitting

Turkey’s Fatih drilling vessel is reportedly in danger of being left without a scientific team and the necessary technology needed to commence operations in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Kathimerini understands that the six-member scientific crew on board is on the verge of quitting for reasons that have yet to be divulged.

Under these conditions it seems highly unlikely that the Fatih will be able to begin drilling next month as Ankara had planned.

Meanwhile, energy giants ExxonMobil and Total are expected to proceed with drilling operations within Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the next two months.

Company representatives have said that drilling will continue according to the planned schedule – as there is a strong military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean region of US and French forces.

That is the english version of the article. In the original (in Greek, here), the article expands a little, and talks about the Norwegian Government pressuring the situation, both for the 6 man science team on the ship and the Norwegian companies that have leased 3 more ships to aid Fatih on drilling. It is also said that Fatih may certainly sail to the region, but cannot use its drill (for the time being).

Is anything of the sort heard from your end? The article reads a little weird..

 

[azyr]

A question, not sure if someone can provide some insight. I've read today an article in Greek press (newspaper Kathimerini) about Fatih. Linking below.

Crew on Turkey’s Fatih drill ship said to be on verge of quitting
http://www.ekathimerini.com/232875/...ih-drill-ship-said-to-be-on-verge-of-quitting

Turkey’s Fatih drilling vessel is reportedly in danger of being left without a scientific team and the necessary technology needed to commence operations in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Kathimerini understands that the six-member scientific crew on board is on the verge of quitting for reasons that have yet to be divulged.

Under these conditions it seems highly unlikely that the Fatih will be able to begin drilling next month as Ankara had planned.

Meanwhile, energy giants ExxonMobil and Total are expected to proceed with drilling operations within Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the next two months.

Company representatives have said that drilling will continue according to the planned schedule – as there is a strong military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean region of US and French forces.

That is the english version of the article. In the original (in Greek, here), the article expands a little, and talks about the Norwegian Government pressuring the situation, both for the 6 man science team on the ship and the Norwegian companies that have leased 3 more ships to aid Fatih on drilling. It is also said that Fatih may certainly sail to the region, but cannot use its drill (for the time being).

Is anything of the sort heard from your end? The article reads a little weird..

We've got absolute zero coverage about the ship for the last month or so (except small updates). Now, granted Turkey is in a very fast developing and huge economic crisis so the agenda is all focused on that - but still, if things where going smoothly I'd wager there would be updates.

Then again, it sounds odd that this vessel (with all the political backing it got) would be left so under-staffed. So can't say I find your article to be very believable either.

So, in short - no news confirming or denying anything as of now.

 

[Constantinople]

Egypt soon will lead middle east in exporting oil. It's very sad. we lost our chance to be a oil hub for middle eastern countries

 

[Fenasi Kerim]

Egypt soon will lead middle east in exporting oil. It's very sad. we lost our chance to be a oil hub for middle eastern countries

They still years behind what they want to achieve even that is doubtful with the way the Middle East works. For Saudi oil it is maybe a great place to diversify from the Hormuz. But for the rest of the world, Egypt is not an alternative strategically to Turkey, especially for Europe. Turkey won’t lose its impprtance over Egypt becomes a hub for Arabian oil, that’s a big IF, either way they will have to sell there souls to America, Isreal and the Saudis, already have.

We are lucky to be situated in the middle of the world, it’s no surprise the US was trying so hard for the Kurds to reach the shores of the Med. it is cheaper, easier, more strategic and Turkey already has much of the infrastructure, even they know it but find it hard to admit when they fail.

If some miracle happens and Turkey does find oil and gas reserves in its EZ zone be sure it will defend it aggressively.

 

[HannibalBarca]

They still years behind what they want to achieve even that is doubtful with the way the Middle East works. For Saudi oil it is maybe a great place to diversify from the Hormuz. But for the rest of the world, Egypt is not an alternative strategically to Turkey, especially for Europe. Turkey won’t lose its impprtance over Egypt becomes a hub for Arabian oil, that’s a big IF, either way they will have to sell there souls to America, Isreal and the Saudis, already have.

We are lucky to be situated in the middle of the world, it’s no surprise the US was trying so hard for the Kurds to reach the shores of the Med. it is cheaper, easier, more strategic and Turkey already has much of the infrastructure, even they know it but find it hard to admit when they fail.

If some miracle happens and Turkey does find oil and gas reserves in its EZ zone be sure it will defend it aggressively.

Most of that Gas isn't mean for Europe... But the Asian market. It's a way to cut Iranian and Qatari from future market.
By imposing a "regional" hub, Foreign markets will be inclined to choose it... instead of individual countries.
It's like When dealing with Europe... A foreign buyer will not have to ask every country if the price/regulation/legislation is the same among them or not... It's easier and faster.

Ofc Egypt is still need to work on that, but as long as every major Gas/oil countries in the near region are willing to transfer their product to EGY raffineries and export ports, then it will grow and expend.

 

[OguzSenturk]

TANAP pipeline supposedly went into operational stage in 1 July, but according to July's EPDK report, Natural Gas imports from Azerbaijan did not increased. Seems like TANAP's operations did not start yet.

 

[kartal1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1049571353639170048

 

[kartal1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1051111009275052032