Turkey, Russia and America
Weapons of choice
ISTANBUL
Turkey risks American sanctions for
the second year in a row
For Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Er-
dogan, a deal is a deal. “There can never
be a turning back,” Mr Erdogan said on
March 6th, referring to his country’s pur-
chase of a Russian air and missile defence
system, which America and nato strongly
oppose. “Nobody should ask us to lick up
what we spat.”
The two s-400 batteries Turkey has or-
dered from Russia, which come with their
own radar, command centre and missile
launcher, for a reported $2.5bn, pack more
bang for the buck than most rival systems.
But they may end up costing Turkey much
more. Unless it walks away from the deal or
mitigates the risks the system poses to
nato, the country could end up on the re-
ceiving end of American sanctions. The
clock is ticking. Russia plans to deliver the
first of the batteries by July of this year.
Having simmered since 2017, when the
purchase was made public, the row over
the s-400s has recently come to a boil. Days
after Mr Erdogan’s statement, the Pentagon
warned that Turkey would face “grave con-
sequences” for buying the system. Two se-
nior State Department officials are said to
have delivered a similar message in person
the previous week.
According to the Pentagon, Turkey risks
expulsion from the f-35 programme, under
which the country stands to acquire 100
fighter jets from America, and sanctions
under a law (known as caatsa) that targets
transactions with the Russian intelligence
or defence sectors. That would be messy.
America would have to return over $1bn in
Turkish contributions to the f-35 pro-
gramme. Turkish manufacturers supply vi-
tal components; replacing them would
take up to two years, delaying deliveries to
other allies.
The row would not be a first. Last year
the Trump administration responded to
the arrest of an American pastor on outlan-
dish terrorism charges by freezing the as-
sets of two of Mr Erdogan’s ministers and
doubling tariffs on Turkish steel and alu-
minium products. Turkey eventually re-
leased the pastor, but not before its curren-
cy plunged. Turkish markets have already
shuddered at the thought of a showdown
over the s-400s. Having recovered from
last summer’s battering, the lira has fallen
steadily over the past seven weeks (see Fi-
nance and Economics).
Mr Erdogan insists there is no conflict
between buying the Russian weapons sys-
tem and his country’s nato commitments.
Others disagree. American and nato offi-
cials have repeatedly warned that Turkey
would not be able to plug the s-400 into the
alliance’s early-warning system. They also
say the system’s radars might allow Russia
to spy on the f-35s, compromising their
stealthiness.
Had Turkey’s interest in the s-400 been
intended merely to nudge America into
making Turkey a competing offer, it would
have been a success. Late last year America
proposed to sell Turkey a package of 140 Pa-
triot missiles for $3.5bn, but only once it
cancelled the deal with the Russians.
Mr Erdogan has rejected the offer. Tur-
key might consider buying the Patriots, his
government has announced, but not at the
expense of the s-400s. Turkey would prob-
ably not be able to walk away from the deal
even if it wanted to. Doing so would create
major problems for Turkey’s relations with
Russia, particularly when it comes to Syria,
says Emre Ersen, an academic at Marmara
University. There is speculation in Ankara
that Mr Erdogan may try to sidestep the cri-
sis by offering to keep the Russian weapons
in storage, or by reselling them to another
country. Yet even that may not be enough.
America opposes not just the system’s de-
ployment, but its purchase.
Most analysts say the question is no
longer whether things will come to a head,
but how and when. Some think that Ameri-
ca may decide to pile on the pressure ahead
of local elections in Turkey on March 31st,
placing Mr Erdogan in an uncomfortable
spot. In theory, America can still grant Tur-
key a caatsa waiver. Officials say this is un-
likely. Another deadline looms this au-
tumn, when two f-35s are set to arrive in
Turkey. Unless the two nato allies work
out a solution, the planes might never
touch Turkish soil.