Transparency Vs Secrecy Pros & Cons

[Najam Khan]

Mod Edit

moved from http://www.defence.pk/forums/jf-17-thunder/71435-jf-17-thunder-information-pool-26.html#post3159818

because the discussion was interesting but off topic and deserved a separate thread

Najam, can you explain to us, what do you think unofficially about this PAF behavior? and you can express your thoughts from a fake account if you want to express some bold thoughts

I don't need fake ID for that

From what I have seen that PAF still has the cold war era mindset in the 21st century. The days of relying ENTIRELY on strategic military surprise and deception during war are along gone, the world has changed in great dimensions in past few years. The policy makers of PAF (and Pakistani armed forces) believe in keeping its weapon details hidden until they became operational. Even if they release something, its still 20-30% behind the actual technology that have attained (or in process of attaining).

Indians on the other hand are experts when it comes to chest pumping, take the example of MMRCA and Arihant Nuclear Sub.

This chest pumping has its pros and cons, pros are that you achieve psycological victory over the masses in adversary. You get more limelight and projection of your potentional strength (something which you won't even achieve in 3-5 years). World consider you as a big weapon market and more weapon procurement options open for you.

The cons are that, your adversary gets detailed assesment of your upcoming game plan. You naturally give them enough time to adress his weaknesses and re-equip itself keeping in mind your upcoming weapons procurement.

The more people write about your coming military achivements, the more your game plan becomes vunerable to your adversary.

For e.g India's Cold Start Doctrine is present in many forms in media, whether its articles on military magzines, internet or discussions in t.v programs everbody has know how about India's game plan. India might think they have achieved a Psycological edge over Pakistan, but that edge at the same time is a lost strategic military surprise (read start of my post again I am not contradicting here, I stresed on the world "ENTIRELY" for a reason.)

The silent strategy of PAF, might belong to old school and needed to be changed to meet today's psy warfare requirements. At the same time the current strategy has profound affects as well, it keeps enemy guessing about PAF strength, its role in multinational exercises etc. They release information where its necessary, the customers that meet PAC/CAC personnel are given detailed presentations about present JF-17, and what it can be in coming future.

What should be done, is that PAF target whole world (using internet) not just the audience of one Aviation magazine. Unfortunately they aren't planning to do so.:

 

[satishkumarcsc]

I don't need fake ID for that

From what I have seen that PAF still has the cold war era mindset in the 21st century. The days of relying ENTIRELY on strategic military surprise and deception during war are along gone, the world has changed in great dimensions in past few years. The policy makers of PAF (and Pakistani armed forces) believe in keeping its weapon details hidden until they became operational. Even if they release something, its still 20-30% behind the actual technology that have attained (or in process of attaining).

Indians on the other hand are experts when it comes to chest pumping, take the example of MMRCA and Arihant Nuclear Sub.

This chest pumping has its pros and cons, pros are that you achieve psycological victory over the masses in adversary. You get more limelight and projection of your potentional strength (something which you won't even achieve in 3-5 years). World consider you as a big weapon market and more weapon procurement options open for you.

The cons are that, your adversary gets detailed assesment of your upcoming game plan. You naturally give them enough time to adress his weaknesses and re-equip itself keeping in mind your upcoming weapons procurement.

The more people write about your coming military achivements, the more your game plan becomes vunerable to your adversary.

For e.g India's Cold Start Doctrine is present in many forms in media, whether its articles on military magzines, internet or discussions in t.v programs everbody has know how about India's game plan. India might think they have achieved a Psycological edge over Pakistan, but that edge at the same time is a lost strategic military surprise (read start of my post again I am not contradicting here, I stresed on the world "ENTIRELY" for a reason.)

The silent strategy of PAF, might belong to old school and needed to be changed to meet today's psy warfare requirements. At the same time the current strategy has profound affects as well, it keeps enemy guessing about PAF strength, its role in multinational exercises etc. They release information where its necessary, the customers that meet PAC/CAC personnel are given detailed presentations about present JF-17, and what it can be in coming future.

What should be done, is that PAF target whole world (using internet) not just the audience of one Aviation magazine. Unfortunately they aren't planning to do so.:

Alright, well you think we are chest thumping? Or we are telling people what they actually want to know?---I dont want to compare the two forces against each other and start a troll fest but as you know we have a lot more cash right now than you.---Thishelps us to easily purchase any counter for an advantage that you are holding as we have almost the whole world ready to give us weapons.----Thus PAF lips are really tight and will remain tight till they get anything actually worth talking about.

 

[Viper0011.]

Alright, well you think we are chest thumping? Or we are telling people what they actually want to know?---I dont want to compare the two forces against each other and start a troll fest but as you know we have a lot more cash right now than you.---Thishelps us to easily purchase any counter for an advantage that you are holding as we have almost the whole world ready to give us weapons.----Thus PAF lips are really tight and will remain tight till they get anything actually worth talking about.

Love the argument here. You totally missed the point from the above post, written extremely professionally.

I've said it in many of my posts, India is NOT US or anything like it. But the way you guys make noise, you guys are trying to project that to the world. Fyi, if there wasn't China, there won't be India having any cash these days. In the bigger strategic game, India is JUST a hedge against China. Trust me on that!!!
Btw, the cash you talk about so proudly, was given to you to bring your poor class to a middle class level by the mighty US. Not to become a superpower. American tax payers funded your country, lost their jobs in the process (thanks to my countrymen in Washington who sold the country to the Indian lobby).

Anyway, not to start a troll here, re-read the above post. He's clearly making the same point. It's psy warfare to impress people beyond the actual capability, which is a weakness in the case of PAF as the mouth-diarrhea (as I refer to it) may impress Srilanka or Bangladesh, it has no effect on China and Pakistan. It infact gives these strong adversaries an option to reassess their situation. A small example (not relevant due to the size of forces) is US vs. Iran. I personally think that if we needed to remove Iran's nuke, a stealth attack at a larger scale would've done the job four years ago. But due to constant media show-offs, you've now given Iran years to constantly update their strategy and it's become more riskier to do so.

 

[SBD-3]

June 30, the aircraft industry to fly into Chengdu with CATIC signed in Chengdu Xiaolong / JF-17 domestic contract of the second installment of 50 aircraft. Wang Guangya, Chengdu, director, general manager of China Aviation Industry CAC quarter Xiaoguang and CATIC, general manager of Ma Zhiping on behalf of the three parties sign the contract, and expressed the hope that the three parties on the foreign market development of the "Fierce Dragon" aircraft, in line with principles of integrity, win-win situation, intensify the unity and cooperation, to create a foreign trade brilliant.

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[Pfpilot]

I'm highly uncomfortable with the idea that apparently Indians reveal too much, while Pakistan holds all sorts of secrets back. It is far too convenient a statement and history has often proved the opposite true. The Pakistani armed forces may truly hide their actual capabilities, but it would be foolish to assume the Indians don't do the same...it is this type of mentality and overconfidence that is often the cause of some of the worlds most one sided defeats. In fact, with their greater strategic depth and Pakistan's limited surveillance capabilities deep into India, we really shouldn't comment on what India may or may not have.

Even in a democracy, as the Americans have shown, the needs of the military often trump any and all considerations regarding liberty and the like. Much of American capabilities remain unknown to the world and often new equipment isn't revealed till years after it's induction. The sensitivity and importance of military tech. has always necessitated a great amount of secrecy. If the Americans do it, the Pakistanis do it, and the Chinese do it...then we must work under the assumption the Indians do so as well.

It is only fair then to mark any comparisons or evaluations of their capabilities with the same asterisks we attach to the facts and figures available about our own armed forces. They don't know everything we have to offer, but similarly, we suffer from the same limitations.

 

[Wet Shirt Contest]

I don't need fake ID for that

From what I have seen that PAF still has the cold war era mindset in the 21st century. The days of relying ENTIRELY on strategic military surprise and deception during war are along gone, the world has changed in great dimensions in past few years. The policy makers of PAF (and Pakistani armed forces) believe in keeping its weapon details hidden until they became operational. Even if they release something, its still 20-30% behind the actual technology that have attained (or in process of attaining).

Indians on the other hand are experts when it comes to chest pumping, take the example of MMRCA and Arihant Nuclear Sub.

This chest pumping has its pros and cons, pros are that you achieve psycological victory over the masses in adversary. You get more limelight and projection of your potentional strength (something which you won't even achieve in 3-5 years). World consider you as a big weapon market and more weapon procurement options open for you.

The cons are that, your adversary gets detailed assesment of your upcoming game plan. You naturally give them enough time to adress his weaknesses and re-equip itself keeping in mind your upcoming weapons procurement.

The more people write about your coming military achivements, the more your game plan becomes vunerable to your adversary.

For e.g India's Cold Start Doctrine is present in many forms in media, whether its articles on military magzines, internet or discussions in t.v programs everbody has know how about India's game plan. India might think they have achieved a Psycological edge over Pakistan, but that edge at the same time is a lost strategic military surprise (read start of my post again I am not contradicting here, I stresed on the world "ENTIRELY" for a reason.)

The silent strategy of PAF, might belong to old school and needed to be changed to meet today's psy warfare requirements. At the same time the current strategy has profound affects as well, it keeps enemy guessing about PAF strength, its role in multinational exercises etc. They release information where its necessary, the customers that meet PAC/CAC personnel are given detailed presentations about present JF-17, and what it can be in coming future.

What should be done, is that PAF target whole world (using internet) not just the audience of one Aviation magazine. Unfortunately they aren't planning to do so.:

I Stopped Reading after that!, you are miserably wrong Specially on red part.
Unexpected Immature comment from a Think Tank like you ,

 

[SBD-3]

I agree with your first assertion about the cost of ownership, technology's impact in winning wars and size. I do agree, the PAF needs numbers. BUT, numbers when JFT has matured up and has more stealth features, AESA (next gen technologies basically). I think what you are seeing fro JFT is a stop gap. So PAF's assessment is to keep a 2:1 (from 3:1) ratio for IAFAF. There's nothing that they can do due to the sheer size of both the countries and the economy (ground realities).

If I was in PAF's high command, my focus would be JFT BII or BIII needs to be close to F-16 B-60 with Stealth capability. Large number of stealth introduces another paradigm shift. The 3:1 or 2:1 ratio all of a sudden becomes useless....Think about it...3:1 or 2:1....who do you count as the party of "1" as you can't see that "1" coming against your 2 or 3 jets (unless it's in your face about to just hit you with guns or AIM-XX due to the close proximity). So if 6 Su-30's are being intercepted by two F-16 (for example) and a Stealth JFT B III...... is it truly a 2:1 ratio? The JFT with stealth will have a field day as it won't be detected, unless it is in close visual proximity which it doesn't need to be. It can stay out of human eye but have more control over the situation and being able to lock onto two - four Su-30's simultaneously. Having 4-6 missiles is more than enough for this situation on the Stealth plane.

I saw an F-22 and then an F-35 with two F-16's around LM's facility in Ft. Worth. The size of these things is twice or more that of F-16's BUT....what you can't see on the screen...you can't see, whether its coming to kiss you, hurt you or simply fly by you.
So to overcome the numbers issue....stealth is a must and in numbers in platform that cheaper to produce. You may not have 200 of planes with 50% of F-22 capability. But you CAN have 200 JFT BII or BIII's with stealth. Then, these same planes turn into force multiplier and no attacking formation will know what to expect.

I afraid we cant make JFT as complete stealth plane. However, there is one thing on which i would not like to see a compromise i.e. weapon potency. A plane armed with AMRAAM is in a more competitive position with a plane with not AMRAAM, A plane armed with a quality SOW is more dangerous for SAM than a plane with no short range/Direct attack munition. I was pleased to see that PAF is pushing SD-10 to be as potent as AMRAAM C5 (the best thing in PAF's arsnel). The same can be said for increased focus on Stand off Capabilities (Hat-8,H-4,H-2,FT-5 and now probably with KD-88/C802AKG). A consistant focus on EW and ECM, all of these things increse survivability. I would like to invest on a 3million worth of munition if it can save my 20million worth plane than a 200K worth of munition which can jeoperdize my 20million worth of investment, not to mention a good pilot. Stealth is very expensive (no dobut the platform is more survivable), but if I can't spend 200million a piece, I can certainly spend 5 million to reduce my valnurability.

 

[satishkumarcsc]

By your logic, China, Russia and US must be cash starved to keep their defence tech, wepon research, and war plans secret.

I envy the genious pool india has (sarcasm)

Comparison was done WRT India as the whole poste that I replied to was done in context with India.

Love the argument here. You totally missed the point from the above post, written extremely professionally.

I've said it in many of my posts, India is NOT US or anything like it. But the way you guys make noise, you guys are trying to project that to the world. Fyi, if there wasn't China, there won't be India having any cash these days. In the bigger strategic game, India is JUST a hedge against China. Trust me on that!!!
Btw, the cash you talk about so proudly, was given to you to bring your poor class to a middle class level by the mighty US. Not to become a superpower. American tax payers funded your country, lost their jobs in the process (thanks to my countrymen in Washington who sold the country to the Indian lobby).

Anyway, not to start a troll here, re-read the above post. He's clearly making the same point. It's psy warfare to impress people beyond the actual capability, which is a weakness in the case of PAF as the mouth-diarrhea (as I refer to it) may impress Srilanka or Bangladesh, it has no effect on China and Pakistan. It infact gives these strong adversaries an option to reassess their situation. A small example (not relevant due to the size of forces) is US vs. Iran. I personally think that if we needed to remove Iran's nuke, a stealth attack at a larger scale would've done the job four years ago. But due to constant media show-offs, you've now given Iran years to constantly update their strategy and it's become more riskier to do so.

Not worth my time.

 

[SQ8]

I Stopped Reading after that!, you are miserably wrong Specially on red part.
Unexpected Immature comment from a Think Tank like you ,

Really?
there are over a dozen articles, multiple "threats" issued.. everytime some weapon like this comes into being.
Im not saying Pakistan does not do it.. after all, we know the statements made from both sides.
But there is definitely a lot more "pomp" and show in India when its compared to Pakistan.
Maybe its just cultural, maybe its not. Im not even saying its a bad thing.. but it is there.. and to deny it.. is foolish.

 

[rockstarIN]

Really?
there are over a dozen articles, multiple "threats" issued.. everytime some weapon like this comes into being.
Im not saying Pakistan does not do it.. after all, we know the statements made from both sides.
But there is definitely a lot more "pomp" and show in India when its compared to Pakistan.
Maybe its just cultural, maybe its not. Im not even saying its a bad thing.. but it is there.. and to deny it.. is foolish.

Nuke Sub production was a top secret programme and the general Indian public was not aware of the same till it is announced by the authorities. Yes there were rumor that Indian is going nuke sub way as any country wanted triad for nuke delivery. Also we leased a nuke sub from Russia in 90s which off course fueled the rumors.

All strategic (read nuclear, ICBM etc) programmes were/are secret which attract world attention.

 

[IceCold]

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/milita...rned-prophet-muhammad-pbuh.html#ixzz206S3uUvx

Pakistan developing nuclear weapons can also be related to this. The Nation suffered alot but then we have people who would disagree to this as well.
On the other hand the Russian economy collapsed due to the weapons race with the US and that we cannot relate to the above.

The point i am trying to make here is that its not the weapon system that will make us win the war but being united. The Israeli nation is united and so were the Muslims under Prophet (PBUH) but can you say the same today about Pakistani nation?
We as a Nation are not united and even the F-22s cannot help us win the war if we are not united with a single agenda as a nation.

 

[Wet Shirt Contest]

Really?
there are over a dozen articles, multiple "threats" issued.. everytime some weapon like this comes into being.
Im not saying Pakistan does not do it.. after all, we know the statements made from both sides.
But there is definitely a lot more "pomp" and show in India when its compared to Pakistan.
Maybe its just cultural, maybe its not. Im not even saying its a bad thing.. but it is there.. and to deny it.. is foolish.

You didn't Get What I mean,
Arihant (Nuclear Sub) was top secret and Still is to some extend. Najam have No idea what he is talking about, probably generalizing everything related to Indian defence. Not every Indian Defence Project Starts with "Media" Chest Thumping, You'll get to know when time is right.

 

[manofwar]

Really?
there are over a dozen articles, multiple "threats" issued.. everytime some weapon like this comes into being.
Im not saying Pakistan does not do it.. after all, we know the statements made from both sides.
But there is definitely a lot more "pomp" and show in India when its compared to Pakistan.
Maybe its just cultural, maybe its not. Im not even saying its a bad thing.. but it is there.. and to deny it.. is foolish.

There is another term for the "pomp and show " you mention, in journalism. It's called Transperancy!!
And I assure you no one is denying it and infact it's considered good for media to be transparent.............Well they do go extreme at times but that's just to catch viewer attention due to extreme competition these days.......

 

[SQ8]

You didn't Get What I mean,
Arihant (Nuclear Sub) was top secret and Still is to some extend. Najam have No idea what he is talking about, probably generalizing everything related to Indian defence. Not every Indian Defence Project Starts with "Media" Chest Thumping, You'll get to know when time is right.

Yet when it was revealed.. it was revealed in earnest..
I have also seen Indian blog sites being much more informed of insider news in Indian affair.
So somebody's talking, it may be just basic pride and Indians deserve to celebrate it. But it can be a double edged sword from time to time.

The Jf-17 that is known to the general public.. is only 80% of what lies within the aircraft, its weapon system.. and the like.
What is known of C4I capabilities.. even less.
The question is not how these are good things or bad things.. its just a matter of doctrine. ..of transparency.
India's relative openness and transparency about its programs leaves little room for operational secrets.
Pakistan's extreme secrecy and opacity of fund usage ends up opening the doors for massive corruption in the name of National security.
In any case.. these are all beyond the scope of this topic.

Nuke Sub production was a top secret programme and the general Indian public was not aware of the same till it is announced by the authorities. Yes there were rumor that Indian is going nuke sub way as any country wanted triad for nuke delivery. Also we leased a nuke sub from Russia in 90s which off course fueled the rumors.

All strategic (read nuclear, ICBM etc) programmes were/are secret which attract world attention.

Yet Indian programmes come to light a lot earlier than ours.. As I stated above.. somebody's talking.
The same happens here, people talk.. it can be a matter of pride to know that something big has been achieved..but at the same time.. it ends up fuelling more rumors..and possibly igniting one arms race after the other.

 

[manofwar]

Yet when it was revealed.. it was revealed in earnest..
I have also seen Indian blog sites being much more informed of insider news in Indian affair.
So somebody's talking, it may be just basic pride and Indians deserve to celebrate it. But it can be a double edged sword from time to time.

The Jf-17 that is known to the general public.. is only 80% of what lies within the aircraft, its weapon system.. and the like.
What is known of C4I capabilities.. even less.
The question is not how these are good things or bad things.. its just a matter of doctrine. ..of transparency.
India's relative openness and transparency about its programs leaves little room for operational secrets.
Pakistan's extreme secrecy and opacity of fund usage ends up opening the doors for massive corruption in the name of National security.
In any case.. these are all beyond the scope of this topic.



Yet Indian programmes come to light a lot earlier than ours.. As I stated above.. somebody's talking.
The same happens here, people talk.. it can be a matter of pride to know that something big has been achieved..but at the same time.. it ends up fuelling more rumors..and possibly igniting one arms race after the other.

This can be easily explained if you look at nations through power. For example, Pakistan and USA are power-centric nations, with the government holding supreme political power due to variety of reasons, including lack of credible competitors.
On the other hand India is power- secondary nation where the government hangs precariously on it's seat. The slightest will of the people is very important in this kind since there is a large number of factions with different goal and objectives.
Naturally in the first case secrets can be kept , stating official reasons, but in the second case it is very difficult to do so, because the government isn't powerful enough to keep a secret, which may be used against it if a change of seat takes place.........