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Tighten your seat belts; Rupee could be heading for 70 levels in near term
NEW DELHI: The rupee stabilised on Friday after falling to a record low in the previous session, but the pain is not over yet.
Some market experts said the domestic currency could slip to 70 levels to the dollar in the near term. After hitting a record low of 68.86 against the greenback in intraday trade on Thursday, the rupee opened 5 paise higher at 68.67 on Friday.
Its previous low was Rs 68.85 on August 28, 2013. Various media reports suggested that RBI sold dollars in the spot market and jawboned traders and dealers from taking aggressive bets against the domestic unit. Some experts said the currency could weaken more and breach the 6970 mark. The recent spurt in the Dollar Index to a 14Year high, primarily on account of the increased probability of a
December Fed rate hike and rising bond yields, has had a strong bearing on the domestic currency.
Foreign investors have offloaded nearly Rs 12,000 crore worth
of equities and almost similar amount in bonds so far in November. Market experts tracking the rupee had a rather tepid outlook for the
rupee in the near term.
Jamal Mecklai of Mecklai Financial RBI has been intervening in the
currency market. Clearly, the pressure remains on the rupee.
In any case, the 6870 range looks reasonable from the perspective of export competitiveness.
But, of course, it has come here in a crisis as always.
The Fed rate hike has already been built in. I think one thing that will
reverse is this a sudden flush of liquidity into the rupee market. ICICIdirect.com
The rally in the dollar index paused amid profit booking from the
recent surge on Thursday. The pace of a further hike in 2017 would provide cues for further strength in the dollar as current expectations are of two rate hikes in 2017. In the currency futures market, the most traded dollarrupee November contract ended at 68.71.
The November contract open interest fell 0.16 per cent from the previous day.
The December contract open interest rose 11.74 per cent on Thursday from the previous day. We expect the dollar to gain support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the dollar to go long on the USDINR pair.
Chandan Taparia, Derivatives & Technical Analyst Equity Research at Anand Rathi Financial Services The rupee tested the 68.89 level and is now on the way to test 70 to the dollar.
Amit Choudhury, Institutional Head, Way2Wealth Brokers Capital discharge from emerging markets, demonetisation and We expect the dollar to gain support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the dollar to go long on the USDINR pair.
Amit Choudhury, Institutional Head, Way2Wealth Brokers Capital discharge from emerging markets, demonetisation and a steep rise in the dollar index have resulted in a triple whammy on the rupee, which has resulted in it hitting a real low on Thursday.
We expect the pressure on the rupee to continue in the near term.
10:08 AM | 25 NOV MARKET STATS Search for News, Stock Quotes & NAV's 11/25/2016 Tighten your seat belts, rupee could be heading for 70 level in near term The Economic Times
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...gfor70levelinnearterm/articleshow/55613307.c… 2/2 Other Times Group news sites
Technical Research & Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in The USDINR paid registered a breakdown two weeks back when it slipped below the 67.53 level out of a contracting structure, which has been in place since February 2016. This breakdown is projecting an initial target of 70.14 in the near term. It continues to remain week as long as it trades above 68.35 level. For any shortterm strength, it needs to initially strengthen and consistently trade below the levels of 68.35 for a couple of trading sessions. Only in that scenario, we can expect some weakness in US dollar visa vis the rupee.
Abnish Kumar Sudhanshu, Director & Research Head, Amrapali Aadya Trading & Investments
Among the key emerging market currencies, the rupee has outperformed since Sep 2013. Post demonetisation of currency, it has reeled under pressure to lose more than 3.5 per cent amid a rally in the US dollar along with capital outflow from the emerging markets. On Thursday, it reached to its lifetime low of 68.85 as capital flights continued and demonetization affecting economic activity. In near term, we expect the rupee to continue to remain under pressure as US dollar is set to strengthen further as US rate hike is more imminent now and domestic activity which got hit off late will take the time to come out of the demonetisation effect. (Views and recommendations given in this section are the analysts' own and do not represent those of ETMarkets.com. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any position in the stock/s mentioned.)
NEW DELHI: The rupee stabilised on Friday after falling to a record low in the previous session, but the pain is not over yet.
Some market experts said the domestic currency could slip to 70 levels to the dollar in the near term. After hitting a record low of 68.86 against the greenback in intraday trade on Thursday, the rupee opened 5 paise higher at 68.67 on Friday.
Its previous low was Rs 68.85 on August 28, 2013. Various media reports suggested that RBI sold dollars in the spot market and jawboned traders and dealers from taking aggressive bets against the domestic unit. Some experts said the currency could weaken more and breach the 6970 mark. The recent spurt in the Dollar Index to a 14Year high, primarily on account of the increased probability of a
December Fed rate hike and rising bond yields, has had a strong bearing on the domestic currency.
Foreign investors have offloaded nearly Rs 12,000 crore worth
of equities and almost similar amount in bonds so far in November. Market experts tracking the rupee had a rather tepid outlook for the
rupee in the near term.
Jamal Mecklai of Mecklai Financial RBI has been intervening in the
currency market. Clearly, the pressure remains on the rupee.
In any case, the 6870 range looks reasonable from the perspective of export competitiveness.
But, of course, it has come here in a crisis as always.
The Fed rate hike has already been built in. I think one thing that will
reverse is this a sudden flush of liquidity into the rupee market. ICICIdirect.com
The rally in the dollar index paused amid profit booking from the
recent surge on Thursday. The pace of a further hike in 2017 would provide cues for further strength in the dollar as current expectations are of two rate hikes in 2017. In the currency futures market, the most traded dollarrupee November contract ended at 68.71.
The November contract open interest fell 0.16 per cent from the previous day.
The December contract open interest rose 11.74 per cent on Thursday from the previous day. We expect the dollar to gain support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the dollar to go long on the USDINR pair.
Chandan Taparia, Derivatives & Technical Analyst Equity Research at Anand Rathi Financial Services The rupee tested the 68.89 level and is now on the way to test 70 to the dollar.
Amit Choudhury, Institutional Head, Way2Wealth Brokers Capital discharge from emerging markets, demonetisation and We expect the dollar to gain support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the dollar to go long on the USDINR pair.
Amit Choudhury, Institutional Head, Way2Wealth Brokers Capital discharge from emerging markets, demonetisation and a steep rise in the dollar index have resulted in a triple whammy on the rupee, which has resulted in it hitting a real low on Thursday.
We expect the pressure on the rupee to continue in the near term.
10:08 AM | 25 NOV MARKET STATS Search for News, Stock Quotes & NAV's 11/25/2016 Tighten your seat belts, rupee could be heading for 70 level in near term The Economic Times
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...gfor70levelinnearterm/articleshow/55613307.c… 2/2 Other Times Group news sites
Technical Research & Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in The USDINR paid registered a breakdown two weeks back when it slipped below the 67.53 level out of a contracting structure, which has been in place since February 2016. This breakdown is projecting an initial target of 70.14 in the near term. It continues to remain week as long as it trades above 68.35 level. For any shortterm strength, it needs to initially strengthen and consistently trade below the levels of 68.35 for a couple of trading sessions. Only in that scenario, we can expect some weakness in US dollar visa vis the rupee.
Abnish Kumar Sudhanshu, Director & Research Head, Amrapali Aadya Trading & Investments
Among the key emerging market currencies, the rupee has outperformed since Sep 2013. Post demonetisation of currency, it has reeled under pressure to lose more than 3.5 per cent amid a rally in the US dollar along with capital outflow from the emerging markets. On Thursday, it reached to its lifetime low of 68.85 as capital flights continued and demonetization affecting economic activity. In near term, we expect the rupee to continue to remain under pressure as US dollar is set to strengthen further as US rate hike is more imminent now and domestic activity which got hit off late will take the time to come out of the demonetisation effect. (Views and recommendations given in this section are the analysts' own and do not represent those of ETMarkets.com. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any position in the stock/s mentioned.)
