[THIS IS BAD] Japan’s Population Falls for Ninth Straight Year

[ILC]

@Mista
Yes, it seems it doesn't work. I should have checked it with different countries.

I have read this article, it looks like China has about 1,350B people instead of 1,4B.

I say people at this planning agency are pure clowns.
But one thing, I think this agency doesn't exist now, but instead, the NBS is publicizing the data, and it looks it didn't change much from previous years. The methodology looks the same. So they still publish fake birth data or the NBS survey is bad.

But Liaoning is an extreme example, it always had the lowest birth rates.

 

[Mista]

So they still publish fake birth data or the NBS survey is bad.

There's another survey conducted in Yichang by their own local government and it showed a TFR of 0.81. It's based on a sample size of 30% (30x of a typical population survey) and therefore should be very accurate.

And bear in mind that Yichang has a significant minority population (not restricted by birth policies even back in 2015) and the urbanization rate is lower than the national average of China. If indeed accurate, a national average TFR of 1.05 in 2015 doesn't seem too absurd.

 

[ILC]

There's another survey conducted in Yichang by their own local government and it showed a TFR of 0.81. It's based on a sample size of 30% (30x of a typical population survey) and therefore should be very accurate.

And bear in mind that Yichang has a significant minority population (not restricted by birth policies even back in 2015) and the urbanization rate is lower than the national average of China. If indeed accurate, a national average TFR of 1.05 in 2015 doesn't seem too absurd.

Some people probably don't include its second children in that survey, especially because that year is the first of two-child policy, so previous years are not included, and some people might be worry but it shouldn't be many, there were many exemptions with that policy.

It's a tragedy that China introduced one child policy instead of two-child. If China had 1,5 TFR it would look completely different compare with 1,05. They should abolish child planning policy tomorrow, and reform that hukou and then delete it because migrant people are less willing to have a child or not willing at all.

@Paul2 What do you think?