[THIS IS BAD] Japan’s Population Falls for Ninth Straight Year

[QWECXZ]

If you do all of that your population size will eventually decrease...

Not necessarily. You will more likely experience a growth rate that is close to 0, but not negative. But even if so, at least you can now provide proper care for your old people.

Imagine a society where your average person is 50 years old! The country will face all sorts of problems. From security problems because there aren't many people fit for military service to healthcare issues because too many people will be sick and have chronic disorders.

Also, your human capital will decrease too. You can't expect an 80 year old guy to work like a 20 year old guy. So, your GDP will decrease eventually while more and more people will rely on pension plans and aid from the government. So, the whole country will collapse soon.

That's why European countries like Germany continue to insist on their immigration policies even though there's too much internal disagreement.

 

[Daniel808]

It is not a serious problem. Japan's economy once collapsed after the end of World War 2, and 30 years later they returned, becoming an economic and technological superpower. Destruction and rebirth are an irreversible cycle of all civilization.

The condition is different right now.

In that time (after WW2), millions of their skilled young man come home from POW camps across all over asia and pacific.
This will become capital for their economy rebuilding in the next decade
Japanese soldier coming home from POW allied camps

And in that time, also there is no competition from other countries for their companies
Today, there are China and South Korea as their competitors

 

[Mista]

Not good at all. They refuse to do something major about it and just give token holidays and some tax breaks. They need an overhaul of their working culture, which has skewed social dynamics. Relationships between young women and men are now rare which is insane.
I hope they pull through.

There's little they can do.

The Western media likes to stereotype the Japanese as sexless workaholics and attribute the problem to that, but these are not based statistics but based on anecdotes. Anecdotes such as hikkomori/herbivore men or working to death etc. But do those examples reflect the wider society as a whole?

Japan has a TFR of 1.4, the same level as Finland (1.4) and higher than Italy (1.3) and Spain (1.3).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

Are the Italians and Spaniards sexless? Are the Finnish workoholics? I don't see the Western media attributing the same problems?

In fact Japan has the highest TFR among Confucian societies.

 

[Daniel808]

There's little they can do.

The Western media likes to stereotype the Japanese as sexless workaholics and attribute the problem to that, but these are not based statistics but based on anecdotes. Anecdotes such as hikkomori/herbivore men or working to death etc. But do those examples reflect the wider society as a whole?

Japan has a TFR of 1.4, the same level as Finland (1.4) and higher than Italy (1.3) and Spain (1.3).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

Are the Italians and Spaniards sexless? Are the Finnish workoholics? I don't see the Western media attributing the same problems?

In fact Japan has the highest TFR among Confucian societies.

Last time I check, there are many other confucian societies country that have much higher TFR than Japan.
There are China (1.7), North Korea (1.9), and Vietnam (2.0)

What do you mean of 1.4 is the highest TFR in confucian societies?

 

[CrazyZ]

Japan needs to import Pakistani Males

They don't like immigrants. Especially brown ones.

Every year Japanese citizen decreasing 487,000 people.
That's mean they lost almost 1,400 citizens per day They are in big trouble right now

Indonesian and Pakistan will have larger economies then Japan in a few decades.

 

[Mista]

Last time I check, there are many other confucian societies country that have much higher TFR than Japan.
There are China (1.7), North Korea (1.9), and Vietnam (2.0)

What do you mean of 1.4 is the highest TFR in confucian societies?

I mean developed Confucian societies.

Anyway China's TFR is only 1.05 according a census in 2015 by the National Bureau of Statistics in China. The 1.7 TFR number is fudged by 卫计委 to justify and preserve its own existence, which has already been dissolved by Xi.

Global Times:

Northeast China has world's lowest fertility rate, around a third of Japan's: expert

The total fertility rate in China's northeastern provinces was the lowest in the world - around a third of Japan's - and leads to the decline in the region's labor force, a Chinese expert said.

Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told the Global Times on Tuesday that Northeast China - Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin provinces - had the world's lowest fertility rate, or number of children an average woman will have over her lifetime, in 2015 at 0.55.

It means that the next-generation population in the region is only one-fourth of the last generation. That's 38 percent of Japan's and 44 percent of South Korea's.

The fertility rate in China in 2015 was 1.05. The 2014 World Bank records show China's rate is lower than those of 199 countries and regions, people.cn reported.

Yi blamed the fertility rate for the drop in the region's labor force, not the population exodus, and urged the region to set more policies to encourage the young generation to produce more children.

A report published by the National Health Commission in 2016 said the fertility rate in northeastern China was 0.75 in 2010.

The population of this region accounted for 8.2 percent of the country, a drop of 0.2 percent compared to 2000, yicai.com reported.

However, Cong Yi, an economics professor at the Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times that the failure of economic restructures is the reason for the decline of labor force.

"The poor economic environment has driven large numbers of young people to leave," Cong said, citing the pension deficit.

Northeast China was the country's industrial heartland prior to the 1990s. But the three provinces have been plagued by slow economic growth, and some companies are on the brink of bankruptcy.

The key to solving the problem is a clear economic direction and offering more attractive incentives to talented people, Cong said.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1112233.shtml

National Bureau of Statistics in China, TFR 2010: 1.18

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/pcsj/rkpc/6rp/html/B0604a.htm

People's Daily:

人民网11月2日电 近日《中国统计年鉴2016》公布的2015年全国1%人口抽样调查显示，中国2015年的总和生育率仅为1.05。这个数据低于世界银行最新的2014年的所有其他199个国家和地区的生育率。试想，如果1.05的生育率属实，那中国的生育水平就是全球最低的，而不是之一。

这是个非常危险的信号，原本中国男女出生性别比一般国家要高出约10%，平均每个女性需要生育更多的孩子才能维持人口不衰。从群体繁衍来看，中国1.05的生育率只相当于发达国的1.0的生育率。这表明发达国家的生育率只要达到2.1就可以维持人口代际平衡，而在中国生育率则需要达到2.2。

根据国家统计局的数据，中国2010到2014年的生育率分别为1.18、1.04、1.26、1.24、1.28，平均生育率仅1.2，即使取最高值也只有1.28。然而，2015年11月5日国家卫计委的数据依然声称实际生育率介于1.5到1.6。这个数据较之前差异较大。

http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2016/1102/c1002-28829168.html

 

[Daniel808]

I mean developed Confucian societies.

Anyway China's TFR is only 1.05 according a census in 2015 by the National Bureau of Statistics in China. The 1.7 TFR number is fudged by 卫计委 to justify and preserve its own existence, which has already been dissolved by Xi.

Global Times:

Northeast China has world's lowest fertility rate, around a third of Japan's: expert

The total fertility rate in China's northeastern provinces was the lowest in the world - around a third of Japan's - and leads to the decline in the region's labor force, a Chinese expert said.

Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told the Global Times on Tuesday that Northeast China - Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin provinces - had the world's lowest fertility rate, or number of children an average woman will have over her lifetime, in 2015 at 0.55.

It means that the next-generation population in the region is only one-fourth of the last generation. That's 38 percent of Japan's and 44 percent of South Korea's.

The fertility rate in China in 2015 was 1.05. The 2014 World Bank records show China's rate is lower than those of 199 countries and regions, people.cn reported.

Yi blamed the fertility rate for the drop in the region's labor force, not the population exodus, and urged the region to set more policies to encourage the young generation to produce more children.

A report published by the National Health Commission in 2016 said the fertility rate in northeastern China was 0.75 in 2010.

The population of this region accounted for 8.2 percent of the country, a drop of 0.2 percent compared to 2000, yicai.com reported.

However, Cong Yi, an economics professor at the Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times that the failure of economic restructures is the reason for the decline of labor force.

"The poor economic environment has driven large numbers of young people to leave," Cong said, citing the pension deficit.

Northeast China was the country's industrial heartland prior to the 1990s. But the three provinces have been plagued by slow economic growth, and some companies are on the brink of bankruptcy.

The key to solving the problem is a clear economic direction and offering more attractive incentives to talented people, Cong said.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1112233.shtml

National Bureau of Statistics in China, TFR 2010: 1.18

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/pcsj/rkpc/6rp/html/B0604a.htm

View attachment 636488

People's Daily:

人民网11月2日电 近日《中国统计年鉴2016》公布的2015年全国1%人口抽样调查显示，中国2015年的总和生育率仅为1.05。这个数据低于世界银行最新的2014年的所有其他199个国家和地区的生育率。试想，如果1.05的生育率属实，那中国的生育水平就是全球最低的，而不是之一。

这是个非常危险的信号，原本中国男女出生性别比一般国家要高出约10%，平均每个女性需要生育更多的孩子才能维持人口不衰。从群体繁衍来看，中国1.05的生育率只相当于发达国的1.0的生育率。这表明发达国家的生育率只要达到2.1就可以维持人口代际平衡，而在中国生育率则需要达到2.2。

根据国家统计局的数据，中国2010到2014年的生育率分别为1.18、1.04、1.26、1.24、1.28，平均生育率仅1.2，即使取最高值也只有1.28。然而，2015年11月5日国家卫计委的数据依然声称实际生育率介于1.5到1.6。这个数据较之前差异较大。

http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2016/1102/c1002-28829168.html

In 2015, before implementation of second child policy.
In the next years, China TFR rising after implementation of Second child policy.

The National Health Commission's put China's TFR at 1.55 in 2018 with average in the past decade reach 1.65.
Even reach 1.8 after implementation of second child policy.

The National Health Commission's population research center put the fertility rate at 1.55 last year, compared with an average of 1.65 in the past decade. The center said the peak since the launch of the second-child policy was 1.8.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201909/19/WS5d82b570a310cf3e3556c413.html

 

[ILC]

@Mista
We were talking about it last year or two years ago, at that time I counted TFR and my results showed TFR at about 1,54.

If The National Health Commission TFR is wrong then all statistics about Chinese demographics are wrong. In that case, there are much fewer children born than 17 230 000 in 2017 or 14,650,000 in 2019. And the Chinese population would be less than 1,4 billion people.

 

[Mista]

@Mista
We were talking about it last year or two years ago, at that time I counted TFR and my results showed TFR at about 1,54.

And I have corrected you on the methodology of calculating TFR, and you didn't reply.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chin...soon-as-this-year.559853/page-3#post-10515073

 

[Daniel808]

I think that is Japan's real problem. 93%urbanization. Everyone go to Tokyo, Osaka, and other big cities. Left some ghost towns along the way. Like in order big economy, urbanization are always bad for raising a family. Because living in a big city like Tokyo is very expensive. So they tend to avoid baby making. While living in villages or small towns make people relax, so they tend to have more children without any problem.

The more that country developed, the more people will come to cities. You cannot halt that

In 2019 alone, Japan lost almost half million of their citizens. This is crazy rate

The trend tell everything, not good at all

 

[Yankee-stani]

Japan population has been declining since the mid 1970s I think they would prefer to remain stagnant as they already reached First world standards and still remain homogenous just plug in cheap labor from other Asian countries but remain sorta restrictive

 

[ILC]

@Mista
I think I had compared it with Polish statistics at that time. The results shouldn't be much different.

If we want to measure it by your formula we need to find how much children were born by women age 15-19 and so on

 

[Indos]

Japan needs to import Pakistani Males

One of my big family members has already taken one Japanese female as wife

 

[Daniel808]

Japan population has been declining since the mid 1970s I think they would prefer to remain stagnant as they already reached First world standards and still remain homogenous just plug in cheap labor from other Asian countries but remain sorta restrictive

Their economic condition today is not so good.
Even their foreign workers is struggling

 

[Mista]

@Mista
I think I had compared it with Polish statistics at that time.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chinas-birth-rate-falls-to-historic-low.601410/page-5#post-11182789

You didn't reply as well.

If we want to measure it by your formula we need to find how much children were born by women age 15-19 and so on

Yes.

And it's not 'my formula', it's the formula.

The results shouldn't be much different.

It does. Your formula is created by yourself and is not scientific.