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The Week - Coverage on IAF - 3 articles
First
COVER STORY
ON A WING AND A SPARE
By Ajit K. Dubey
Story Dated: Monday, March 16, 2015 14:27 hrs IST
Marshal Arup Raha burst a cluster bomb at the last combined commanders conference on October 17, which was Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first. If the government wanted his force to guard the frontiers with Pakistan and China well, he would need at least 45 squadrons of fighter jets; he had hardly 34!
Raha, soft-spoken and not known for theatrics, stunned the prime minister and the entire security establishment. This was probably the first time that an Air Force chief had told the government, after Shashindra Pal Tyagi wrote to the government eight years ago and leaked his letter, that his force was in such a bad state that he would not be able to do his duty.
With the decision on the long-demanded 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft getting delayed, there is no hope of augmenting the fleet in the near future. Though there is an overall increase of about Rs25,000 crore in the defence budget, there is a drastic cut in the money allotted for aircraft purchase. The allocation to the IAF for buying aircraft and aero-engines has been slashed from Rs21,461.39 crore to Rs18,866.01 crore.
Money can be allocated only after a purchase decision has been approved, and, as of now, there is none on the IAF's plate. “The explanation for the delays in procurement should not be asked of the man in uniform,” said retired air chief marshal P.V. Naik. “The bureaucracy is responsible for procuring equipment for the services.”
With its squadron strength depleting fast, the IAF has no go but to progressively scale down the magnitude of its mandated tasks. There was a time in the early 2000s when the force, flush with the victory in the Kargil war and with the prospect of several squadrons of lethal Sukhoi-30MKIs flying in, talked of being equipped for a two-front war with China and Pakistan. A realistic assessment since then has made the marshals realise that such a doctrine would require at least 60 squadrons of ultra-modern war jets. That is about 1,200 fighter planes.
Ambitions have since been scaled down, for several reasons. As the flush of the Kargil win receded, the defence ministry was back to the same old lethargy in procurement. Purchase decisions got entangled in bureaucratic red-tape and ministerial caution against allegations of corruption. “The IAF is still awaiting the induction of the medium multi-role aircraft,” said Naik.
Then came the economic downturn, dashing any hope of a big jump in the budget for the services' capital purchases. Moreover, the Chinese began upping their air power and ground facilities in Tibet at such a fast pace that there was no way the IAF could match war jet for war jet. In just about a decade, China added more than 300 brand-new Russian Sukhoi-30MKKs and Sukhoi-27s, and homemade J-10 and J-17s.
As the 'ground' reality struck the Indian air staff, their operational doctrines became less ambitious. “The current operational directive from the office of the defence minister, issued in 2009, asks the armed forces to be war-ready on the Pakistan border, and prepare for holding operations along the China border,” a ministry official told THE WEEK. Simply put, it means adopt an offensive posture on the Pakistan front, and a defensive one against the Chinese.
But even such a modest war doctrine is now looking too ambitious. As Raha told the combined commanders' conference, he would need 45 squadrons to hold back the Chinese while waging a reasonably credible offensive against Pakistan; and he had just 34. “The situation is precarious,” pointed out retired air marshal A.K. Singh, former chief of the Delhi-based western air command that takes care of the entire theatre of operations against Pakistan. “If tomorrow we have to face the eventuality of both Pakistan and China putting pressure on us on the borders, we would be in a grave situation.”
The picture, thus, is one of progressively shrinking the operational ambitions with the dwindling size of the force. Recently, the IAF brass told Parliament's standing committee on defence headed by retired major-general B.C. Khanduri: “Our capability has already come down. Our capability vis-à-vis our neighbours is fast eroding.” The committee, in turn, ticked off the government for its “lack of futuristic planing”. The IAF's squadron strength “is just 34 against a sanctioned number of 42,” it pointed out. “We regret that a huge difference in sanctioned and existing number of squadrons was allowed at all. This could have been checked since the aircraft have a definite life span, and decommissioning can be well calculated.”
Alarmingly, in one of its reports, the committee put the actual operational squadron strength at a paltry 25, after discounting aircraft undergoing repair and refit at any given time. The estimate is that 35 to 40 per cent of the aircraft in a squadron can be expected to be in the maintenance or refit or upgrade hangar at any given time. This is so even with the brand-new Sukhois—nearly half of which are always in 'maintenance' hangars. Recently, the entire Sukhoi fleet was grounded for three weeks for inspection after the pilot and navigator seats ejected automatically while the aircraft was about to land in Pune.
Part of the blame, indeed, is on human error. Or that is what the makers of the plane would swear, as in the case of the Pune crash. The Russians say that two pilots had a cockpit quarrel in which the senior called the junior “good for nothing” and the latter, a rookie, lost his nerve. Minutes later, the two were thrown off with their seats! The IAF is still tight-lipped about what actually happened. Such 'criminal errors', however, are rare. Most human errors are those of judgment which can happen while flying at twice the speed of sound.
A more crippling problem is shortage of spares. Forget the old MiG-21s and MiG-27s which are no longer made anywhere in the world, even the Sukhois often face spares crunch. So much so that three or four Su-30MKIs have been turned into 'Christmas Trees' from which the engineers pluck spares. “These [new] aircraft are being cannibalised to meet the requirement of spares for the other aircraft in the Su-30 squadrons,” said an official at the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), which builds the aircraft under Russian licence. “But I won't blame the IAF. They are facing problems in getting spares from Russia.”
Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, though new to his job, is aware of the shortage of aircraft. He recently asked the IAF and HAL to improve the availability of fighter jets. “If we improve the availability, the current squadrons are reasonably adequate,” he told THE WEEK. “It doesn't mean that we should not increase it. We have to have 42 squadrons, but equally important is that we should improve the availability of the present 35 squadrons.”
Parrikar claims that the IAF has improved aircraft availability by 10 per cent in the past six months. “If you improve the availability, 75 per cent of your problem is solved,” he said. “Sukhoi availability is also improving. Low availability is due to servicing issues and spares.” Agreed former HAL chairman R.K. Tyagi: “The availability of aircraft in the squadrons was 50 per cent earlier. But, with steps like creation of spares bank for the aircraft, we have brought it up to 60 per cent in the last few months.”
At present, in operational squadron strength, the IAF suffers a humiliating parity with the Pakistan Air Force, which, too, has 25 squadrons. And there is no comparison with China, which has an air force four times larger than the IAF. Indeed, PLAAF has several more frontiers to take care of, with 'enemies' Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Taiwan all around it. So no one expects China to deploy its entire airpower against India. All the same, considering that China views India as its primary and most powerful adversary, IAF doctrine-makers expect it to press a large part of its squadron strength into operations against India.
Most of the Chinese squadrons consist of modern Su-30MKKs, Su-27s, J-10s and J-16s which have been replacing their obsolete Chengdu J-7s. The Chinese have recently modernised their airfields in Kongka, Hoping, Lhasa and Pangta in Tibet. Sensing trouble, the Indian defence ministry permitted the IAF to move three wings of its deep-strike Sukhoi-30MKIs closer to the Chinese border—the 15 Wing to Bareilly, the 11 Wing to Tezpur and, more recently, the 14 Wing to Chabua.
Even the parity claimed with Pakistan pales when one considers the capabilities of the aircraft in the inventory. Most of Pakistan's 25 squadrons are getting modernised with the planned induction of around 45 F-16s from the US and more than 100 Chinese J-10s. “We still have an edge over the Pakistan Air Force but let me tell you, it is eroding very fast,” warned Naik, who used to claim, during his tenure as air chief five years ago, that the IAF was not a chunnu munnu (rag tag) force. “They are modernising fast, but not much has happened on our side.”
The bulk of India's 25 to 34 squadrons are of ageing MiG-21s, flying and fighting with the technologies of the 1970s vintage. “Fourteen of these 34 fighter squadrons are of MiG 21 and MiG 27s,” said an air marshal. “We ought to have pensioned them out long ago, and we will have to do that in the next five years.” Naik said, “At regular intervals, you need to add new aircraft to replace your 30-35 year-old MiG-21s. That has not happened in the last decade.”
The MiGs did have their day. When inducted, the MiG-21s were the only supersonic planes in south Asia. They played stellar roles in the 1971 war and have been guarding the Indian skies for close to half a century. However, the aircraft has become obsolete, and after the break-up of the Soviet Union spares also ran out. On the other hand, the Pakistan Air Force has been not only flying the more modern F-16s, but also upgrading them regularly.
Parliament's standing committee, too, has expressed its dismay over this. “This widening gap occurs because the rate at which fighter aircraft are retiring after completion of their total technical life exceeds the rate at which their replacements are being inducted into the IAF,” observed its report.
Though flying accidents on MiG-21s have been brought down, the reliability of the old planes continues to worry. “In a recent accident in Gujarat, the bomb on the wing of a MiG-21 exploded, resulting in a crash,” said an engineer in the Nagpur-based maintenance command. “The pilot landed safely but the incident has put question marks on the reliability of the old machines.”
The big questions is, what would replace them? To meet its requirement of 45 squadrons in the next 10-15 years, the IAF wants to have a mix of heavy-, medium- and light-weight aircraft, a few bought and the rest built. In fact, the Sukhoi-30MKIs are coming in numbers, but being heavy-duty, long-range weapons, they cannot be used for giving close air support to the Army. The operational philosophy demands that in case the enemy runs in with its huge tank fleet across the Punjab plains or the Rajasthan desert, the Army would seek help of the Air Force to bomb them out. “The Sukhois can hardly be used for such tactical roles,” pointed out a staff officer in the Air Headquarters.
Equipped with the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, the Sukhoi, with refuelling, can fly for more than 10 hours at a stretch and hit anywhere on the Eurasian continent. But currently, quite a few of them are deployed in Jodhpur and a few other bases in Punjab and Haryana to take care of a few thousand square kilometres of Pakistani territory. That job ideally should have gone to the light and agile Tejas. But the aircraft is yet to get final operational clearance and enter squadron service.
Faced with a crippling shortage, the IAF is desperately reworking its tactical doctrines. In the recent Live Wire exercise, the force put all its assets to use to check if it could quickly switch its Sukhois from the eastern front to the Pakistani front. Such switching of roles is easier said than done. In such situations, the squadron pilots need to be trained in different tactical doctrines at the same time. “The way you wage a dogfight over the plains is different from the way you wage it over the mountains,” said an officer in the Bengaluru-based training command. “It is too taxing on a pilot to be training every day in such varying kinds of combat.”
Currently, for bulk of the operations on the western frontier, the IAF has the MiG-21s, which it wants to be replaced with the Tejas. The development programme of the Tejas has been running for three decades now. The builder, HAL, is waiting for the final clearance and is ready “to ramp up production capacity to 16 light combat aircraft a year, doubling the initial target of eight per year,” as former HAL chairman Tyagi said recently. Its Mark-2 version is expected to take another five years to enter squadron service.
In between the light and short-range Tejas and the heavy-duty, long-range Sukhois would come the Mirage-2000 (three squadrons), the Jaguar deep strike penetration aircraft (five squadrons) and the Russian MiG-29 (three squadrons). Of these, the Jaguars are of 1970s technology, and the Mirages and the MiG-29s of 1980s. Mid-life upgrades have given these aircraft another two decades of service life, but the IAF would like to have a robust fleet of medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) before these warhorses retire.
After prolonged and protracted scouting and negotiations, the IAF had zeroed in on the French Rafales. But the deal is still stuck in wrangles between the original maker Dassault and the intended licensed Indian manufacturer HAL. “The timely induction of 126 MMRCA in the IAF is of critical importance,” said Air Chief Marshal Raha in a recent interview.
In fact, a lot of futuristic planning is being done. The IAF has started talking about a fifth-generation (most of the world's most advanced aircraft in service today are fourth-gen) advanced medium combat aircraft (AMCA). “The fifth-gen fighter is still on the drawing boards, and it should come out in 8-20 years,” said an IAF officer. “We are looking at a Russian design aircraft, to be jointly developed with DRDO [Defence Research and Development Organisation], which would be our answer to the American F-35 Lightning, F-22 Raptors and Chinese Chengdu J-20s.” These stealth aircraft would give the IAF the capability to enter enemy territory without 'troubling' the enemy radars, missile batteries and air defence guns.
The talks with the Russians over this are stuck on pricing and work share for India. The original idea was to get the aircraft developed jointly with Russia, which would cost $11 billion and take about nine years after the deal is signed. A quicker option, but less preferred because of the reduced Indian role, is to opt for the already existing Russian design, go for outright purchase of a few and subsequent licensed production in India. “If this option is exercised today, we will get the first aircraft by 2019-20,” said an officer.
The Khanduri committee had expressed concern over this. “We are constrained to observe that country's security requirements are being compromised by ignoring consistently widening gap between sanctioned and existing strengths,” observed its report. “We desire that concrete and prompt steps be initiated expeditiously to induct sufficient number of functional platform.”
But that is not happening. With no new procurement decisions taken, the IAF's plane purchase budget has been cut by Rs2,595 crore. “It would be difficult for the government to allocate more funds for new acquisitions for the IAF,” said defence industry analyst Deba R. Mohanty. “And it is not just fighter aircraft that have to be procured by the force; it also has to buy Apache and Chinook helicopters, additional mid-air refuelling aircraft, AWACS, aerostat radars and many more important things.”
Those, the marshals say, are another story.
Fighters for the future
Su-30MKI: The Russian multi-role heavy aircraft is the biggest in the fighter jet category in the IAF. With plans to procure 272 Su-30MKIs (13 squadrons), the aircraft would be the mainstay of the force for 30 years.
Fifth generation fighter aircraft: To be procured from Russia, the fifth generation fighter aircraft would be India's answer to the American F-35 Lightning II and F-22 Raptor. The IAF is planning to buy 144 aircraft (seven squadrons) and induct them by 2019-20.
Medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA): For the past three years, negotiations have been going on with the French firm, Dassault Aviation, to procure aircraft for $20 billion ('mother of all deals'). If the deal comes through, the IAF would induct 126 MMRCA (six squadrons) by 2019-20.
Light combat aircraft Tejas: The home-grown aircraft is among the fighter jets that took the longest in the making and saw several cost and time over-runs. The LCA is in the final stages of development and 140 (seven squadrons) of them are expected to be inducted in the next two to three years.
Advanced medium combat aircraft: The AMCA is still on the drawing board and the Defence Research and Development Organisation plans to get sanction for it in the next few years. The AMCA may take 20 years to be developed fully and will replace Mirage 2000, Jaguar deep penetration strike aircraft and MiG-29s. And, for that, 200 AMCA (ten squadrons) would be required.
The Week | ON A WING AND A SPARE
Second Story
Up in the air
By Ajit K. Dubey
Story Dated: Saturday, March 14, 2015 14:44 hrs IST
Rafale deal in limbo as India and France fail to reach a consensus on the terms
When the French Rafale bagged the multi-billion dollar deal for 126 fighter jets in 2012, it cost an American ambassador his job and fouled up India's diplomatic ties with the US, the UK and several other friendly countries. All the same, air marshals in India opened champagne bottles, cheering a lethal multi-role plane that they expected to be theirs in three years. The idea was to get 18 planes from France and the remaining 108 were to be built by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited in India under licence.
Three years later, the marshals don't have a single multi-role jet, except the ageing MiG-21s that have been in service since 1961. Even the Rafale deal is yet to be signed with the original equipment manufacturer, Dassault Aviation.
The French have been trying desperately to get the deal through. Their defence minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, visited India thrice last year and their foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, twice.
The deal apparently is held up because India wants Dassault Aviation to guarantee the timely delivery of 108 aircraft to be built by HAL. The French have said that they cannot guarantee work by an Indian entity.
The stalemate has resulted in a blame game. During his last visit, Drian alleged that the Indian defence ministry's demand was unjustified, since the original tender document had not specified that the original equipment manufacturer would have to guarantee delivery by the Indian licence-holder. “The French said that we were deviating from the request for proposal,” an IAF officer told THE WEEK. “Both sides need to stick to the request for proposal was their argument.”
The defence ministry's acquisition wing, however, said there were clauses in the request for proposal which indicated that the foreign vendor would be responsible for the aircraft to be built in India. Dassault had submitted a project report in which it had raised doubts about certain obsolete manufacturing practices in HAL and sought upgrades in divisions which would be involved in the building of Rafale.
Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has instructed his officers to conclude the negotiations by April. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to visit France in April and there is hope that a favourable decision would be taken before that.
Ministry sources said the two parties were yet to discuss the most crucial aspect of the deal—the actual cost. France recently sold 24 Rafales to Egypt for 5.9 billion euros, which works out to 01,600 crore per aircraft. If India gets 126 aircraft at the same cost (which is unlikely considering the changing currency value), the deal would be worth more than Rs2 lakh crore, which is four times the amount sanctioned by the Manmohan Singh government in 2005. {price of FREMM is not considered and hence the cost is incorrect}
“We are aware that the negotiations with Dassault haven't gone very smoothly,” said British foreign secretary Philip Hammond when THE WEEK asked him if the British were still offering Eurofighter. “But [as of now] there is a preferred bidder. If we think we have an opportunity, we will be there with a competitive offer.”
The marshals, however, are thrilled. From what they reckon, the Rafale would be the most potent winged weapon in their inventory that can carry 10 tonnes of arms, which is more than what the Sukhoi-30MKI can carry.
The Week | Up in the air
Third Story
GUEST COLUMN
Get those Rafales, quick
By Air Chief Marshal (retd) S. Krishnaswamy
Story Dated: Saturday, March 14, 2015 14:47 hrs IST
Defence takes up a sizeable package of public expenditure that rightfully draws a strong debate on its modernisation. Big-ticket items do raise interesting views in the debate. The acquisition of a Russian aircraft carrier for the Navy caused quite a stir after the unprecedented price escalation cost the country a bomb. Next on the list is the proposed acquisition of Rafale fighter jets, which would be the most expensive purchase to date.
Cost is not the only concern; there appears to be a discomfort in taking decisions, which has led to extraordinary delays. India may well be creating a poor impression of its decision-making process. Fortunately, the country has a sharp-minded IIT graduate as defence minister, who is known for taking clear decisions, and we hope that the dust would settle down quickly.
Rafale is certainly a much-needed addition to the Indian Air Force. During the Kargil conflict, only Mirage 2000 had the capability to deliver a precision-guided bomb accurately on Tiger Hill, putting to rest the criticisms over its acquisition. We have ensured that its special features are embodied on the light combat aircraft and Su-30MKI.
Rafale would have better and wider capabilities in all weather. While speed and manoeuvrability are important traits of a combat aircraft, the demand in modern times is for flexibility of role while in air.
The 'swing role' fighter could carry a variety of weapons and sensors and be able to engage targets in air, on ground or at sea on a single mission. Rafale can perform 'swing role' functions though it may predominantly remain a multi-role combat aircraft (like Su-30MKI) that is configured on ground for specific missions prior to take-off. It promises more effective delivery, improved availability and longer technical life than any other machine in the current inventory. There is excellent scope to improve the Su-30MKI, which was designed 20 years ago, indigenously since it is being produced at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited.
The Air Force, for long, has been working on regaining its squadron strength. It may not be such an urgent need but would possibly be a projection for the future. The Air Force may be short on squadrons but in terms of firepower, it has four times the strength it had two decades ago when it had around 40 squadrons.
EACH Su-30MKI (more than 250 of them) has at least four times the potential of an old MiG-21 FL. What is important is 'operational availability'. Effective management follows good planning to ensure maximum availability and a systematic repair/ overhaul line.
It would not be a good idea to get new machines if the old ones are awaiting repair in the hangar. However, numbers are important to mount effective operations. Experienced air forces plan for 'high-low mix'. For India, a combination of LCA and Su-30MKI/ Rafale would make the low-high mix. Proportionately, low would be in larger number (low does not mean lack of sophistication but a lower level of ordnance carriage and range, and a limited role).
For a 'swing role' fighter to be effective, an advanced communication network, excellent real-time intelligence and a well-delegated and effective decision-making body are required. With the induction of multi-role combat aircraft, we expect to procure more advanced missiles, weapons and sensors.
Buying new planes, guns and ships alone would not make our military potent.
Innovative ways have to be found to reduce the cost of operations and of inventory management. Innovative ways have to be found to also improve manpower quality, and reduce surplus manpower. The tooth-to-tail ratio in the Indian military is one of the lowest among modern military forces.
While we criticise public sector undertakings, the time is right for the military to transfer its industrial functions to the private sector. Military service has gradually become a government job. While permanent commission is treated like permanence 'till death do us apart', those who join in short service commission are going to court to become permanent!
The Air Force must permit its personnel to retire after putting a minimum number of years of service. There should no longer be a difference between permanent and short service.
There is a lot on the plate for the government and the military to resolve. Modernisation is an all-encompassing exercise and is not limited only to inducting billion-dollar equipment.
The Week | Get those Rafales, quick
First
COVER STORY
ON A WING AND A SPARE
By Ajit K. Dubey
Story Dated: Monday, March 16, 2015 14:27 hrs IST
Marshal Arup Raha burst a cluster bomb at the last combined commanders conference on October 17, which was Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first. If the government wanted his force to guard the frontiers with Pakistan and China well, he would need at least 45 squadrons of fighter jets; he had hardly 34!
Raha, soft-spoken and not known for theatrics, stunned the prime minister and the entire security establishment. This was probably the first time that an Air Force chief had told the government, after Shashindra Pal Tyagi wrote to the government eight years ago and leaked his letter, that his force was in such a bad state that he would not be able to do his duty.
With the decision on the long-demanded 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft getting delayed, there is no hope of augmenting the fleet in the near future. Though there is an overall increase of about Rs25,000 crore in the defence budget, there is a drastic cut in the money allotted for aircraft purchase. The allocation to the IAF for buying aircraft and aero-engines has been slashed from Rs21,461.39 crore to Rs18,866.01 crore.
Money can be allocated only after a purchase decision has been approved, and, as of now, there is none on the IAF's plate. “The explanation for the delays in procurement should not be asked of the man in uniform,” said retired air chief marshal P.V. Naik. “The bureaucracy is responsible for procuring equipment for the services.”
With its squadron strength depleting fast, the IAF has no go but to progressively scale down the magnitude of its mandated tasks. There was a time in the early 2000s when the force, flush with the victory in the Kargil war and with the prospect of several squadrons of lethal Sukhoi-30MKIs flying in, talked of being equipped for a two-front war with China and Pakistan. A realistic assessment since then has made the marshals realise that such a doctrine would require at least 60 squadrons of ultra-modern war jets. That is about 1,200 fighter planes.
Ambitions have since been scaled down, for several reasons. As the flush of the Kargil win receded, the defence ministry was back to the same old lethargy in procurement. Purchase decisions got entangled in bureaucratic red-tape and ministerial caution against allegations of corruption. “The IAF is still awaiting the induction of the medium multi-role aircraft,” said Naik.
Then came the economic downturn, dashing any hope of a big jump in the budget for the services' capital purchases. Moreover, the Chinese began upping their air power and ground facilities in Tibet at such a fast pace that there was no way the IAF could match war jet for war jet. In just about a decade, China added more than 300 brand-new Russian Sukhoi-30MKKs and Sukhoi-27s, and homemade J-10 and J-17s.
As the 'ground' reality struck the Indian air staff, their operational doctrines became less ambitious. “The current operational directive from the office of the defence minister, issued in 2009, asks the armed forces to be war-ready on the Pakistan border, and prepare for holding operations along the China border,” a ministry official told THE WEEK. Simply put, it means adopt an offensive posture on the Pakistan front, and a defensive one against the Chinese.
But even such a modest war doctrine is now looking too ambitious. As Raha told the combined commanders' conference, he would need 45 squadrons to hold back the Chinese while waging a reasonably credible offensive against Pakistan; and he had just 34. “The situation is precarious,” pointed out retired air marshal A.K. Singh, former chief of the Delhi-based western air command that takes care of the entire theatre of operations against Pakistan. “If tomorrow we have to face the eventuality of both Pakistan and China putting pressure on us on the borders, we would be in a grave situation.”
The picture, thus, is one of progressively shrinking the operational ambitions with the dwindling size of the force. Recently, the IAF brass told Parliament's standing committee on defence headed by retired major-general B.C. Khanduri: “Our capability has already come down. Our capability vis-à-vis our neighbours is fast eroding.” The committee, in turn, ticked off the government for its “lack of futuristic planing”. The IAF's squadron strength “is just 34 against a sanctioned number of 42,” it pointed out. “We regret that a huge difference in sanctioned and existing number of squadrons was allowed at all. This could have been checked since the aircraft have a definite life span, and decommissioning can be well calculated.”
Alarmingly, in one of its reports, the committee put the actual operational squadron strength at a paltry 25, after discounting aircraft undergoing repair and refit at any given time. The estimate is that 35 to 40 per cent of the aircraft in a squadron can be expected to be in the maintenance or refit or upgrade hangar at any given time. This is so even with the brand-new Sukhois—nearly half of which are always in 'maintenance' hangars. Recently, the entire Sukhoi fleet was grounded for three weeks for inspection after the pilot and navigator seats ejected automatically while the aircraft was about to land in Pune.
Part of the blame, indeed, is on human error. Or that is what the makers of the plane would swear, as in the case of the Pune crash. The Russians say that two pilots had a cockpit quarrel in which the senior called the junior “good for nothing” and the latter, a rookie, lost his nerve. Minutes later, the two were thrown off with their seats! The IAF is still tight-lipped about what actually happened. Such 'criminal errors', however, are rare. Most human errors are those of judgment which can happen while flying at twice the speed of sound.
A more crippling problem is shortage of spares. Forget the old MiG-21s and MiG-27s which are no longer made anywhere in the world, even the Sukhois often face spares crunch. So much so that three or four Su-30MKIs have been turned into 'Christmas Trees' from which the engineers pluck spares. “These [new] aircraft are being cannibalised to meet the requirement of spares for the other aircraft in the Su-30 squadrons,” said an official at the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), which builds the aircraft under Russian licence. “But I won't blame the IAF. They are facing problems in getting spares from Russia.”
Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, though new to his job, is aware of the shortage of aircraft. He recently asked the IAF and HAL to improve the availability of fighter jets. “If we improve the availability, the current squadrons are reasonably adequate,” he told THE WEEK. “It doesn't mean that we should not increase it. We have to have 42 squadrons, but equally important is that we should improve the availability of the present 35 squadrons.”
Parrikar claims that the IAF has improved aircraft availability by 10 per cent in the past six months. “If you improve the availability, 75 per cent of your problem is solved,” he said. “Sukhoi availability is also improving. Low availability is due to servicing issues and spares.” Agreed former HAL chairman R.K. Tyagi: “The availability of aircraft in the squadrons was 50 per cent earlier. But, with steps like creation of spares bank for the aircraft, we have brought it up to 60 per cent in the last few months.”
At present, in operational squadron strength, the IAF suffers a humiliating parity with the Pakistan Air Force, which, too, has 25 squadrons. And there is no comparison with China, which has an air force four times larger than the IAF. Indeed, PLAAF has several more frontiers to take care of, with 'enemies' Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Taiwan all around it. So no one expects China to deploy its entire airpower against India. All the same, considering that China views India as its primary and most powerful adversary, IAF doctrine-makers expect it to press a large part of its squadron strength into operations against India.
Most of the Chinese squadrons consist of modern Su-30MKKs, Su-27s, J-10s and J-16s which have been replacing their obsolete Chengdu J-7s. The Chinese have recently modernised their airfields in Kongka, Hoping, Lhasa and Pangta in Tibet. Sensing trouble, the Indian defence ministry permitted the IAF to move three wings of its deep-strike Sukhoi-30MKIs closer to the Chinese border—the 15 Wing to Bareilly, the 11 Wing to Tezpur and, more recently, the 14 Wing to Chabua.
Even the parity claimed with Pakistan pales when one considers the capabilities of the aircraft in the inventory. Most of Pakistan's 25 squadrons are getting modernised with the planned induction of around 45 F-16s from the US and more than 100 Chinese J-10s. “We still have an edge over the Pakistan Air Force but let me tell you, it is eroding very fast,” warned Naik, who used to claim, during his tenure as air chief five years ago, that the IAF was not a chunnu munnu (rag tag) force. “They are modernising fast, but not much has happened on our side.”
The bulk of India's 25 to 34 squadrons are of ageing MiG-21s, flying and fighting with the technologies of the 1970s vintage. “Fourteen of these 34 fighter squadrons are of MiG 21 and MiG 27s,” said an air marshal. “We ought to have pensioned them out long ago, and we will have to do that in the next five years.” Naik said, “At regular intervals, you need to add new aircraft to replace your 30-35 year-old MiG-21s. That has not happened in the last decade.”
The MiGs did have their day. When inducted, the MiG-21s were the only supersonic planes in south Asia. They played stellar roles in the 1971 war and have been guarding the Indian skies for close to half a century. However, the aircraft has become obsolete, and after the break-up of the Soviet Union spares also ran out. On the other hand, the Pakistan Air Force has been not only flying the more modern F-16s, but also upgrading them regularly.
Parliament's standing committee, too, has expressed its dismay over this. “This widening gap occurs because the rate at which fighter aircraft are retiring after completion of their total technical life exceeds the rate at which their replacements are being inducted into the IAF,” observed its report.
Though flying accidents on MiG-21s have been brought down, the reliability of the old planes continues to worry. “In a recent accident in Gujarat, the bomb on the wing of a MiG-21 exploded, resulting in a crash,” said an engineer in the Nagpur-based maintenance command. “The pilot landed safely but the incident has put question marks on the reliability of the old machines.”
The big questions is, what would replace them? To meet its requirement of 45 squadrons in the next 10-15 years, the IAF wants to have a mix of heavy-, medium- and light-weight aircraft, a few bought and the rest built. In fact, the Sukhoi-30MKIs are coming in numbers, but being heavy-duty, long-range weapons, they cannot be used for giving close air support to the Army. The operational philosophy demands that in case the enemy runs in with its huge tank fleet across the Punjab plains or the Rajasthan desert, the Army would seek help of the Air Force to bomb them out. “The Sukhois can hardly be used for such tactical roles,” pointed out a staff officer in the Air Headquarters.
Equipped with the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, the Sukhoi, with refuelling, can fly for more than 10 hours at a stretch and hit anywhere on the Eurasian continent. But currently, quite a few of them are deployed in Jodhpur and a few other bases in Punjab and Haryana to take care of a few thousand square kilometres of Pakistani territory. That job ideally should have gone to the light and agile Tejas. But the aircraft is yet to get final operational clearance and enter squadron service.
Faced with a crippling shortage, the IAF is desperately reworking its tactical doctrines. In the recent Live Wire exercise, the force put all its assets to use to check if it could quickly switch its Sukhois from the eastern front to the Pakistani front. Such switching of roles is easier said than done. In such situations, the squadron pilots need to be trained in different tactical doctrines at the same time. “The way you wage a dogfight over the plains is different from the way you wage it over the mountains,” said an officer in the Bengaluru-based training command. “It is too taxing on a pilot to be training every day in such varying kinds of combat.”
Currently, for bulk of the operations on the western frontier, the IAF has the MiG-21s, which it wants to be replaced with the Tejas. The development programme of the Tejas has been running for three decades now. The builder, HAL, is waiting for the final clearance and is ready “to ramp up production capacity to 16 light combat aircraft a year, doubling the initial target of eight per year,” as former HAL chairman Tyagi said recently. Its Mark-2 version is expected to take another five years to enter squadron service.
In between the light and short-range Tejas and the heavy-duty, long-range Sukhois would come the Mirage-2000 (three squadrons), the Jaguar deep strike penetration aircraft (five squadrons) and the Russian MiG-29 (three squadrons). Of these, the Jaguars are of 1970s technology, and the Mirages and the MiG-29s of 1980s. Mid-life upgrades have given these aircraft another two decades of service life, but the IAF would like to have a robust fleet of medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) before these warhorses retire.
After prolonged and protracted scouting and negotiations, the IAF had zeroed in on the French Rafales. But the deal is still stuck in wrangles between the original maker Dassault and the intended licensed Indian manufacturer HAL. “The timely induction of 126 MMRCA in the IAF is of critical importance,” said Air Chief Marshal Raha in a recent interview.
In fact, a lot of futuristic planning is being done. The IAF has started talking about a fifth-generation (most of the world's most advanced aircraft in service today are fourth-gen) advanced medium combat aircraft (AMCA). “The fifth-gen fighter is still on the drawing boards, and it should come out in 8-20 years,” said an IAF officer. “We are looking at a Russian design aircraft, to be jointly developed with DRDO [Defence Research and Development Organisation], which would be our answer to the American F-35 Lightning, F-22 Raptors and Chinese Chengdu J-20s.” These stealth aircraft would give the IAF the capability to enter enemy territory without 'troubling' the enemy radars, missile batteries and air defence guns.
The talks with the Russians over this are stuck on pricing and work share for India. The original idea was to get the aircraft developed jointly with Russia, which would cost $11 billion and take about nine years after the deal is signed. A quicker option, but less preferred because of the reduced Indian role, is to opt for the already existing Russian design, go for outright purchase of a few and subsequent licensed production in India. “If this option is exercised today, we will get the first aircraft by 2019-20,” said an officer.
The Khanduri committee had expressed concern over this. “We are constrained to observe that country's security requirements are being compromised by ignoring consistently widening gap between sanctioned and existing strengths,” observed its report. “We desire that concrete and prompt steps be initiated expeditiously to induct sufficient number of functional platform.”
But that is not happening. With no new procurement decisions taken, the IAF's plane purchase budget has been cut by Rs2,595 crore. “It would be difficult for the government to allocate more funds for new acquisitions for the IAF,” said defence industry analyst Deba R. Mohanty. “And it is not just fighter aircraft that have to be procured by the force; it also has to buy Apache and Chinook helicopters, additional mid-air refuelling aircraft, AWACS, aerostat radars and many more important things.”
Those, the marshals say, are another story.
Fighters for the future
Su-30MKI: The Russian multi-role heavy aircraft is the biggest in the fighter jet category in the IAF. With plans to procure 272 Su-30MKIs (13 squadrons), the aircraft would be the mainstay of the force for 30 years.
Fifth generation fighter aircraft: To be procured from Russia, the fifth generation fighter aircraft would be India's answer to the American F-35 Lightning II and F-22 Raptor. The IAF is planning to buy 144 aircraft (seven squadrons) and induct them by 2019-20.
Medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA): For the past three years, negotiations have been going on with the French firm, Dassault Aviation, to procure aircraft for $20 billion ('mother of all deals'). If the deal comes through, the IAF would induct 126 MMRCA (six squadrons) by 2019-20.
Light combat aircraft Tejas: The home-grown aircraft is among the fighter jets that took the longest in the making and saw several cost and time over-runs. The LCA is in the final stages of development and 140 (seven squadrons) of them are expected to be inducted in the next two to three years.
Advanced medium combat aircraft: The AMCA is still on the drawing board and the Defence Research and Development Organisation plans to get sanction for it in the next few years. The AMCA may take 20 years to be developed fully and will replace Mirage 2000, Jaguar deep penetration strike aircraft and MiG-29s. And, for that, 200 AMCA (ten squadrons) would be required.
The Week | ON A WING AND A SPARE
Second Story
Up in the air
By Ajit K. Dubey
Story Dated: Saturday, March 14, 2015 14:44 hrs IST
Rafale deal in limbo as India and France fail to reach a consensus on the terms
When the French Rafale bagged the multi-billion dollar deal for 126 fighter jets in 2012, it cost an American ambassador his job and fouled up India's diplomatic ties with the US, the UK and several other friendly countries. All the same, air marshals in India opened champagne bottles, cheering a lethal multi-role plane that they expected to be theirs in three years. The idea was to get 18 planes from France and the remaining 108 were to be built by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited in India under licence.
Three years later, the marshals don't have a single multi-role jet, except the ageing MiG-21s that have been in service since 1961. Even the Rafale deal is yet to be signed with the original equipment manufacturer, Dassault Aviation.
The French have been trying desperately to get the deal through. Their defence minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, visited India thrice last year and their foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, twice.
The deal apparently is held up because India wants Dassault Aviation to guarantee the timely delivery of 108 aircraft to be built by HAL. The French have said that they cannot guarantee work by an Indian entity.
The stalemate has resulted in a blame game. During his last visit, Drian alleged that the Indian defence ministry's demand was unjustified, since the original tender document had not specified that the original equipment manufacturer would have to guarantee delivery by the Indian licence-holder. “The French said that we were deviating from the request for proposal,” an IAF officer told THE WEEK. “Both sides need to stick to the request for proposal was their argument.”
The defence ministry's acquisition wing, however, said there were clauses in the request for proposal which indicated that the foreign vendor would be responsible for the aircraft to be built in India. Dassault had submitted a project report in which it had raised doubts about certain obsolete manufacturing practices in HAL and sought upgrades in divisions which would be involved in the building of Rafale.
Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has instructed his officers to conclude the negotiations by April. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to visit France in April and there is hope that a favourable decision would be taken before that.
Ministry sources said the two parties were yet to discuss the most crucial aspect of the deal—the actual cost. France recently sold 24 Rafales to Egypt for 5.9 billion euros, which works out to 01,600 crore per aircraft. If India gets 126 aircraft at the same cost (which is unlikely considering the changing currency value), the deal would be worth more than Rs2 lakh crore, which is four times the amount sanctioned by the Manmohan Singh government in 2005. {price of FREMM is not considered and hence the cost is incorrect}
“We are aware that the negotiations with Dassault haven't gone very smoothly,” said British foreign secretary Philip Hammond when THE WEEK asked him if the British were still offering Eurofighter. “But [as of now] there is a preferred bidder. If we think we have an opportunity, we will be there with a competitive offer.”
The marshals, however, are thrilled. From what they reckon, the Rafale would be the most potent winged weapon in their inventory that can carry 10 tonnes of arms, which is more than what the Sukhoi-30MKI can carry.
The Week | Up in the air
Third Story
GUEST COLUMN
Get those Rafales, quick
By Air Chief Marshal (retd) S. Krishnaswamy
Story Dated: Saturday, March 14, 2015 14:47 hrs IST
Defence takes up a sizeable package of public expenditure that rightfully draws a strong debate on its modernisation. Big-ticket items do raise interesting views in the debate. The acquisition of a Russian aircraft carrier for the Navy caused quite a stir after the unprecedented price escalation cost the country a bomb. Next on the list is the proposed acquisition of Rafale fighter jets, which would be the most expensive purchase to date.
Cost is not the only concern; there appears to be a discomfort in taking decisions, which has led to extraordinary delays. India may well be creating a poor impression of its decision-making process. Fortunately, the country has a sharp-minded IIT graduate as defence minister, who is known for taking clear decisions, and we hope that the dust would settle down quickly.
Rafale is certainly a much-needed addition to the Indian Air Force. During the Kargil conflict, only Mirage 2000 had the capability to deliver a precision-guided bomb accurately on Tiger Hill, putting to rest the criticisms over its acquisition. We have ensured that its special features are embodied on the light combat aircraft and Su-30MKI.
Rafale would have better and wider capabilities in all weather. While speed and manoeuvrability are important traits of a combat aircraft, the demand in modern times is for flexibility of role while in air.
The 'swing role' fighter could carry a variety of weapons and sensors and be able to engage targets in air, on ground or at sea on a single mission. Rafale can perform 'swing role' functions though it may predominantly remain a multi-role combat aircraft (like Su-30MKI) that is configured on ground for specific missions prior to take-off. It promises more effective delivery, improved availability and longer technical life than any other machine in the current inventory. There is excellent scope to improve the Su-30MKI, which was designed 20 years ago, indigenously since it is being produced at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited.
The Air Force, for long, has been working on regaining its squadron strength. It may not be such an urgent need but would possibly be a projection for the future. The Air Force may be short on squadrons but in terms of firepower, it has four times the strength it had two decades ago when it had around 40 squadrons.
EACH Su-30MKI (more than 250 of them) has at least four times the potential of an old MiG-21 FL. What is important is 'operational availability'. Effective management follows good planning to ensure maximum availability and a systematic repair/ overhaul line.
It would not be a good idea to get new machines if the old ones are awaiting repair in the hangar. However, numbers are important to mount effective operations. Experienced air forces plan for 'high-low mix'. For India, a combination of LCA and Su-30MKI/ Rafale would make the low-high mix. Proportionately, low would be in larger number (low does not mean lack of sophistication but a lower level of ordnance carriage and range, and a limited role).
For a 'swing role' fighter to be effective, an advanced communication network, excellent real-time intelligence and a well-delegated and effective decision-making body are required. With the induction of multi-role combat aircraft, we expect to procure more advanced missiles, weapons and sensors.
Buying new planes, guns and ships alone would not make our military potent.
Innovative ways have to be found to reduce the cost of operations and of inventory management. Innovative ways have to be found to also improve manpower quality, and reduce surplus manpower. The tooth-to-tail ratio in the Indian military is one of the lowest among modern military forces.
While we criticise public sector undertakings, the time is right for the military to transfer its industrial functions to the private sector. Military service has gradually become a government job. While permanent commission is treated like permanence 'till death do us apart', those who join in short service commission are going to court to become permanent!
The Air Force must permit its personnel to retire after putting a minimum number of years of service. There should no longer be a difference between permanent and short service.
There is a lot on the plate for the government and the military to resolve. Modernisation is an all-encompassing exercise and is not limited only to inducting billion-dollar equipment.
The Week | Get those Rafales, quick
