The US may be about to score a huge intelligence victory over China

[ChineseTiger1986]

That's the beautiful thing about having information about "social relationships", such things are impossible to prove. It's not like gravity where you can measure it and verify it.

Information about social relationships is 100% subjective. He could talk bullsh*t all day long and they would have no way to disprove it, or even any reason to disbelieve it.

Well, you are right, it is unlikely he can provide anything crucial.

But I still hope he can dig up some dirty news about Wen Jiabao, since most people in China already got fed up by this dirty traitor.

 

[gambit]

Now you're really exposing why your mechanic background makes you unqualified for commenting on issues of social sciences. The reality is that human organizations don't operate predictably like car engines. If they did, then there would be no split between natural and social sciences - the latter would be totally subsumed in the former. The operation of the Party is not rigid like clockwork. After all, isn't it always the West that complains China doesn't have 'rule of law'? Xi's administration is qualitatively different from his predecessors - the fact that it shrunk from 9 to 7 members is only the most obvious example.

Anyway, your mentality is also why your democracy-promoting efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, etc have totally failed. You thought as long as you tweak the system, the country would be stable, and you ignored the role of human nature and local traditions. And now those countries are now collapsing in flames and you are culpable.

My engineering background definitely qualified me to speak on politics. Social relationships are indeed more flexible than rigid physical structures, but that does not mean social relationships are anarchic in state. Do you go after your friend's wife/GF ? If you feel that such predatory behavior is immoral and detrimental to your friendships with that couple, you have just obeyed a rule and your behaviors around that couple WILL BE predictable. Yes, you may change your mind tomorrow, or the next week, or after the woman enhanced herself with cosmetic surgery, and that change would be unpredictable and unanticipated, but that would be no different in principle than an unexpected failure of mechanics inside an engine.

Behaviors among neighbors are also governed by laws and tacit understandings. The law says you will not trespass the fence. The tacit understanding compels you to accept certain moral principles that overrides the law, simply put, the immorality of violating the fence is so overwhelming that you would not need any law to keep you on your side of the fence.

Here is an example of corruption where rules are ignored and tacit understanding replaced those rules...

Chinese military cracks down on license plates and corruption| Reuters

China's new leadership is seeking to dismantle a system of privilege which has allowed the drivers of military vehicles to do as they please on the roads.

The military abuses the people by ignoring the traffic laws for decades.

Politics and governments are no different. If what you are saying is true, then just about every intelligence agencies that ever existed for thousands of yrs have been worthless, right?

 

[AMDR]

Or maybe MSS will use it to feed crap to CIA, how do we know?

What if they (CIA) ask him multiple questions they already know the answer and have solid Intel on from a HUMINT mole inside the CCP? They could both cross check their own Intel and confirm whether or not he is the real deal.

Somehow I fail to believe that the CIA is both gullible and inexperienced enough to believe everything that man will say without confirming his credibility first.

 

[gambit]

There is not much he can whistleblow about Xi Jinping, since even Zhou Yongkang didn't do any damage to Xi as he had already whistleblowed several times.

And Zhou Yongkang got more classified information than Ling Jihua, since Zhou is a former politburo member who is higher ranked than Ling.

You still do not get it.

This is not about Xi Jinping but about the position that Xi Jinping occupies, who gets that position, who can access that position and under what circumstances, etc.

 

[Cossack25A1]

So why are the Chinese are complaining about this? Didn't the CCP got an overwhelming amount of intelligence when they hacked the US recently?

 

[21stCentury]

 

[TheTruth]

This has the potential to be a significant intelligence haul. Not only would he have info on the CCP, but if he's aware of the corrupt inner workings of the CCP, the CIA could use that to blackmail CCP officials.

No reason to believe he has any special information.

 

[gambit]

What if they (CIA) ask him multiple questions they already know the answer and have solid Intel on from a HUMINT mole inside the CCP? They could both cross check their own Intel and confirm whether or not he is the real deal.

Somehow I fail to believe that the CIA is both gullible and inexperienced enough to believe everything that man will say without confirming his credibility first.

The CIA will put Ling under polygraph examination.

Polygraph examination for intelligence assets verification is nothing like TV/movies lie detector scenes. The CIA does not want 'Yes/No' answer. In fact, 'Yes/No' answers will trigger immediate suspicions that the potential asset is a plant. In criminal investigations, the subject is informed of his/her legal rights and the examiner is not allowed to persists in trying to get the subject to abandon those rights. Nothing like that for the CIA. The CIA want long drawn out answers. The longer the better because the longer the subject talks, the more physical responses are produced for the machine and examiner to assess if the subject is making up his answer.

There is a difference between lying and making up a truth. In lying, you know the facts and their final truth and you give an answer that is contrary to that truth. In making up a truth, you are ignorant of any fact, or of many facts, that may support a conclusion but you decide to fill in the gaps from your own creativity. The longer you talk in trying to present that fiction as truth, the better the odds your body will betray you. The CIA will present straight questions that demand facts and they will be facts that the CIA already know, and hypothetical scenarios to see if you are capable of being analytical of those scenarios that may have multiple outcomes. You may have just one exam but there is no guarantee that it will be just one. What the CIA want is less about concrete facts that we do not know, even though they would be useful, but more on whether you are CONSISTENT in responses. If you do not know the truth to a hard question, say so. If you do not know enough facts to analyze a soft question or flexible scenario, say so. But if you try anything else, your body will reveal yourself.

Ling will go through the proverbial wringer and it will be one event that he have never experienced with his family or his psychiatrist if he had any, and that he wish he will never go through again.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Has it been proven in the People's Procurate? Or in the Supreme People's Procurate? Has there been an injunction filed? If not, then everything is by hearsay, and thus are innocent as they are innocent until proven guilty.

The family members are protected by the Article 37 of the Constitution of the People's Republic of China. The Independent judiciary through the Procurate will address issues in a court of law, and without interference from party members, period. The President of China , himself, has no power to invoke special interventive powers in the Supreme People's Procurate and its lower courts. In fact, to do so would be in violation of the executive powers of the President.

do you also realize that suspects can be detained prior to trial and evidence is used for conviction, not suspicion?

 

[cnleio]

See, those corrupted CCP member beg for U.S Daddy now. The only unacceptable thing is the traitor come from the CCP.

 

[gambit]

See, those corrupted CCP member beg for U.S Daddy now.

When your government was founded on corruption, what type of people do you think your government is going to attract and sustain ?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

When your government was founded on corruption, what type of people do you think your government is going to attract and sustain ?

pretty sure it was founded on fighting corruption in the kmt that was so bad even Harry Truman got sick of it.

 

[cnleio]

When your government was founded on corruption, what type of people do you think your government is going to attract and sustain ?

Thing get worse when Communist seek for the money, Mao's CCP is respectable others i don't think so ... If Xi can't clean CCP and save her, nobody can.

Past 10-years of Hu & Wen leaded China is the time of China economy rapidly grow up, also is the time of huge power-for-money deals between local government and private capital.

 

[Raphael]

My engineering background definitely qualified me to speak on politics. Social relationships are indeed more flexible than rigid physical structures, but that does not mean social relationships are anarchic in state. Do you go after your friend's wife/GF ? If you feel that such predatory behavior is immoral and detrimental to your friendships with that couple, you have just obeyed a rule and your behaviors around that couple WILL BE predictable. Yes, you may change your mind tomorrow, or the next week, or after the woman enhanced herself with cosmetic surgery, and that change would be unpredictable and unanticipated, but that would be no different in principle than an unexpected failure of mechanics inside an engine.

Behaviors among neighbors are also governed by laws and tacit understandings. The law says you will not trespass the fence. The tacit understanding compels you to accept certain moral principles that overrides the law, simply put, the immorality of violating the fence is so overwhelming that you would not need any law to keep you on your side of the fence.

Here is an example of corruption where rules are ignored and tacit understanding replaced those rules...

Chinese military cracks down on license plates and corruption| Reuters

The military abuses the people by ignoring the traffic laws for decades.

Politics and governments are no different. If what you are saying is true, then just about every intelligence agencies that ever existed for thousands of yrs have been worthless, right?

All you examples about predictable behavior have to do with common people who feel bound by the rule of law. But it's the west which claims that China has no rule of law. When they are talking about the Party, they are in fact right. The idea that LWC has any special esoteric knowledge about the structural workings of the Party is laughable, given that the Party is infinitely restructuring and reforming. It's happening before your eyes with the anti-corruption purges, and yet you have the temerity to deny it.

Frankly, you can be so shameless sometimes. Stubbornly insisting your mechanic/engineer background gives you special insight into social sciences. Haven't you complained before about communist central planning back in your homeland Vietnam? If behavior and relationships are predictable and can be modeled, how did central planning fail?

 

[frequency]

You're evidently not familiar with Chinese politics. All info LWC has comes from his brother LJH. LJH was prominent in the Hu administration and is intimately familiar with that clique. However, LJH has been sidelined ever since 2012 and has never held a sensitive positive with Xi's administration. The decision to purge him was not made recently, but years ago and since then LJH has been kept totally out of the loop.

So his brother could potentially spill a lot of info on Wen Jiabao, etc. But as @ChineseTiger1986 mentioned, WJB has already been exposed. It would be like exposing Clinton's dirty laundry again, lol.

If it was just the dirty laundry, the CIA wouldn't be all over it wouldn't it? You are a brilliant fool.

Xi's anti-corruption campaign could backfire on him, if the US makes clear that CCP officials can gain political asylum if they hand over what they know.



I'd be surprised if the CIA doesn't already have moles in the CCP simply based off CCP corruption alone.

Xi is in trouble. He's about to lose his precious throne.

You missed the point of this being an intelligence treasure for US. This is far far less about individuals than it is about the structures of relationships inside the Party. Why care about the sailors when you can access the plans for the entire sub ?

Why even bother explaining to the uneducated. Waste of time.