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Windjammer
I wouldn't call NASR a CSD killer, i would rather use the words 'insurance policy'. First of all, for NASR to be deployed the IA brigades would have to take out a huge bite out of PA's Armour, literally render it toothless against the advancing IA Armoured Formations. Looking at the current balance of forces, this seems highly unlikely. In fact, IA dominating local area battles seem highly unlikely.
Punjab serves as a natural impediment against advancing Armour. The topography, environment, vegetation and canals serve as a natural barrier for any advancing force and a wonderful force multiplier for the defending force. Thar will likely witness much more fluid battles, this is why PA has deployed AK's which cancels out the T90S. The most frightening scenario was when the IA purchased the Smerch system(40), they could batter any mass formations off PA from mass distances. Now PA has purchased the A-100 system which provides an automatic counter battery to the Smerch system and PA is raising 42 regiments, couple that with our advantage in SP artillery, PA has enough fire power to pound any advancing Indian Armour right at the border. Couple that with PA's Frontier Units which are much more mobile and well setup with their ATGM Hell Holes, IA advancing Armour will be facing attrition right from the start. So even before IA Armour comes into contact with PA's Armour, they will have already faced constant pounding backed up from a vulnerable supply line which is always going to be under threat of flanking and facing heavy pounding from PA's Artillery.
If i were a betting man, i wouldn't bet much on PA using the NASR as PA's conventional firepower is strong enough to rout any advancing Indian Armour, but its always good to have an insurance policy.
India is not in a position to take on any successful CSD against pakistan in it's current scenario. CSD is not an offensive doctrine to begin with, it is just an effective method for faster deployment of the troops. IBG incursion mandates, air interdiction as precursor to any ground activity, and pre cursor to air interdiction is cruise missile attacks on c4I assets.
The above is the biggest chink in the Armour of indian military right now, there aren't enough of cruise missiles inducted, there aren't enouch air launched standoff missiles, and nearly 150-200 of the ground strike platforms of IAF like the mig 27M and the Jaguars mandate an air superiority which is not achievable in the needed time frame.
CSD's and the concept of highly mobile IBG's (light and heavy ) are actually derived (imo) from armored brigades of the ww2 africa conquest where, the light brigades would link up and separate to control certain areas. The idea is to divide the big rolling Armour in multiple pronged tentacles which would threaten different assets of PA, Now doesn't that increases the head aches of PA,
What ever a Nasr can achieve a small tactical nuke dropped from a mirage 3 can do the same in battle conditions, hence the concept of tactical nukes on forwarding troops is not a new one, and not a blinder that suddenly PA has fielded which has IA planner sleepless.The heavy IBG's will only roll with proper air interdiction, plus they will have adequate CAS cover from IAF to trace 50-80 kms ahead for PA assets.
As for tactical nuke missile is concerned, what makes pakistanis believe, that in case of pakistani firing one on IA, will not derrive the same on pakistani armour and command centers, agreed you can fire your battlefield tactical nuke on an indian formation, but with the size of pakistan, a similar response on pakistani airbase or a command center is not very difficult for IA to achieve. If pakistan is willing to deliver a tactical nuke I hope they have sufficient planning to absorb the same response, the only difference is this scenario is in pakistani territory, IA will have a very target rich zone to play with.
I'm in now way suggesting that CSD/IBG will run through pakistani defences like knife through butter, imo Indian damages might be 10 times what pakistan will sustain in the process, but assuming what Indian army will do, or doubting the will of of the Indian military has been a folly for which pakistan has paid dearly in the past. The same attitude emanates from pakistani members here, when they say, we will hit you with a tactical nuke and your army will just roll over and die, and rest will pack their bags and go back home and watch saas bahu serials.
Planning of the conflict holds the major key here, Unless India has more strike platforms, and area defence fighters like LCA mk2 is completely developed which will set free the rest of the strike platforms, IAF will not recommend any high attrition conflict. With nearly DARE III upgrades in Mig 27 and Darin II upgrades on jaguar pending, ground attack platforms are not in their best shape CAS will call for mki/m2000 platforms, blunting the main strike and air dom missions. I dont see India is a position to take any offensive in current defence plan.
In the end whichever side has better planning and better redundancies built into their command and control to absorb the initial damage sustained will have the edge. I dont think India still has the assets needed to sucessfully pull off any high intensity air/ground operations for next 5 years.
In case of conflict due to Mumbai styled operations or others which calls for retaliation, In current strength the best option would be a naval embargo. That in my opinion will be a much sustainable operation, in current strength, the biggest disparity among three forces in India and pakistan lies in the navy hence india has the maximum leverage at sea, and should effectively use it.
