Capt.Popeye
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The only time when NASR will be used is when Pakistan's entire existential existence is at stake. It means the IA has managed to effectively neutralize PA's war-fighting capability by effectively disbanding her Armour, has breached the N5 Highway, have effectively split up Islamabad-Karachi Axis and rolling towards Islamabad. Only than will NASR be likely fired to warn the Indian policy makers that Pakistan's red lines have been breached, and the next strike is going to be strategic.
India does not keep her nukes like Pakistan in assembled form, its stored in component for. The only two countries that keep their nukes in assembled form and ready to fire in seconds notice is US and Russia. NASR is designed to be a light small rocket that can quickly be assembled on the battlefield giving the battle field commanders the required vacuum they need to manoeuvre. Strategic nukes are big and they take time to assemble, thus if India starts assembling her strategic nukes, that is not something you can hide under the rug, expect the order to go out on Pakistan's side to start assembling their nuke too. In fact, in my opinion the order would immediately go out once Pakistan's existence is at stake and NASR has been fired. Thus, both sides will be roughly prepared at the same to initiate a strategic strike. It will be upto India whether she wants to fry out the entire subcontinent, or loose an entire Armoured Brigade in a foreign territory. This is one of the biggest cons of 'Nuclear Poker' as you suggested, you never know what the threshold and you certainly pray to God that you never find out in real life.
True that. But what makes you think that will be India's "pro-forma approach"? Otherwise my own conviction is Nukes are just the "Ultimate Cyanide Pill".
But the scenario that you have sketched above; if it merits a nuclear riposte from Pakistan; why should it be TNWs, that too on one's own soil? Why not a Strategic Response? Because that is where it will lead to anyway by default. Or is there another reason for creating and mobilising "sub-kiloton" nuclear weapon?
Of course the nuke scenario is hardly one to look forward to. Which is why it is simply amusing to see that some posters sell the theory that Pakistan can reduce its nuclear threshold.
Not at all, but its always the Armour which leads the attack and takes the bit out of the enemy's defences. Your attack choppers are going to be the most vulnerable as they will be operating in a very dense environment and are going to be constantly under the threat of air interdiction and SAM/AAA mobile batteries. PAF's high altitude AD coverage needs beefing up, but i would argue PAF's low altitude AD coverage is deadly at best especially in a dense environment like Indo-Pak. IAF cannot possibly provide the back up to IA's Choppers as she would be busy duelling out with the PAF in early phases of the war. I am more worried off those T90's rather than the Attack Helo's, Mobile Arty(PA has an advantage in this field) or the Drones.
Again you have assumed a "pro-forma" response. Do you think that it really will be only like that? Or only in the area/region that you have chosen?
If you see the array of weaponry that India is investing in; you cannot but notice the options that can be brought into play. Give that some thought please.