The Russian-Pakistani $10 Billion Pipeline Will Promote Eurasian Integration

[farok84]

after s400 deal i dont see how its feasible for pakistan......the way i see its a deal b/w two strategic partners Russia-India.....Pakistan is just ''used'' as a transit for their own good!

Russia a 140 million people's country itself need to understand that Pakistan is herself the 5th largest country of the world, its not the ladder to its success, but is herself a market that can give her success.

Let's not act like our eastern neighbor.

At the moment it's only an MOU signed to conduct a feasibility study. I hope they determine this to be feasible and lay the pipeline and bring this much needed gas to our shores. This will be good for our own economy and growth, irrespective of India and her S400s.

Obviously, Gazprom, like all others, stand to make profit - India undeniably, is a larger market than ours, they can lay this pipeline independent of us, as Indians have been planning. So, why not use this opportunity to our benefit? Why deny ourselves a role in a pure regional economic initiative, on pretense of false sentiment and a misplaced pride? That will be faulty, irrational and immature - Pakistan stands at loosing nothing here. Even-if the study comes out to be a non starter, we will still have something to take away, if nothing, then an in-depth free of cost analysis of our seabed's topography. This failure may lead Gazprom or others to lay the onshore pipeline from Iran instead. This bears only positives for Pakistan.

For the transit part (in literal sense), Indian's made it amply clear that they don't want a transit through Pakistan, either by land or sea. Gazprom or anyone else will not be laying Iran-India offshore pipeline through Pakistan. For this to work, both Iran-Pakistan and Iran-India pipelines will be independent of each other - another positive from a security perspective.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

after s400 deal i dont see how its feasible for pakistan......the way i see its a deal b/w two strategic partners Russia-India.....Pakistan is just ''used'' as a transit for their own good!

Russia a 140 million people's country itself need to understand that Pakistan is herself the 5th largest country of the world, its not the ladder to its success, but is herself a market that can give her success.

Russia, Pakistan & India are already part of SCO.

Iran would be joining SCO shortly.

 

[Umair Nawaz]

Let's not act like our eastern neighbor.

At the moment it's only an MOU signed to conduct a feasibility study. I hope they determine this to be feasible and lay the pipeline and bring this much needed gas to our shores. This will be good for our own economy and growth, irrespective of India and her S400s.

Obviously, Gazprom, like all others, stand to make profit - India undeniably, is a larger market than ours, they can lay this pipeline independent of us, as Indians have been planning. So, why not use this opportunity to our benefit? Why deny ourselves a role in a pure regional economic initiative, on pretense of false sentiment and a misplaced pride? That will be faulty, irrational and immature - Pakistan stands at loosing nothing here. Even-if the study comes out to be a non starter, we will still have something to take away, if nothing, then an in-depth free of cost analysis of our seabed's topography. This failure may lead Gazprom or others to lay the onshore pipeline from Iran instead. This bears only positives for Pakistan.

For the transit part (in literal sense), Indian's made it amply clear that they don't want a transit through Pakistan, either by land or sea. Gazprom or anyone else will not be laying Iran-India offshore pipeline through Pakistan. For this to work, both Iran-Pakistan and Iran-India pipelines will be independent of each other - another positive from a security perspective.

Read my post again.......Pakistan will now never give gas to india and after s400 deal, Russia if it insists abt india with pakistan, pakistan will just say GOODBYE to Russian and Gazprom. PERIOD!
And for yr info, India cant lay pipeline under sea without our permission because it passes through our EEZ

This pipeline is essentially IPI

 

[farok84]

Read my post again.......Pakistan will now never give gas to india and after s400 deal, Russia if it insists abt india with pakistan, pakistan will just say GOODBYE to Russian and Gazprom. PERIOD!
And for yr info, India cant lay pipeline under sea without our permission because it passes through our EEZ

This pipeline is essentially IPI

Pakistan was never going to give India any gas, Iran was and will - bypassing Pakistan's EEZ and extended EEZ. I have earlier shared studies carried out by an Indian consortium, please read those and you will appreciate the lengths Indians have gone to avoid all our EEZ.

This either will be two independent pipelines (I) Iran to Pakistan and (II) Iran to India from a common distribution facility in Iran, or a single pipeline to India with a tie-in to Pakistan. They can and will avoid Pakistan EEZ.

 

[CHACHA"G"]

India need Gas (so do we) , Iran ready to supply ,, Russia have money and expertise for pipeline , , We have 2 option here ,

1. Refuse to join them , Russia will by pass Pakistani EEZ completely ,and we miss the opportunity of transit fee and Gas on our shoreline .
2. Join them let them take this pipeline and get economic benefits from it. (they will going to do it one way or other).

I am very much sure that India requested Russia to by pass Pakistani Land (no Land base pipeline coming from Iran through Pakistan) for many reasons … I have no problem with it . But by passing Pakistani EEZ will make this project expensive and hard to maintain.... And also pipeline in Sea may give India some security peace .

 

[Umair Nawaz]

Pakistan was never going to give India any gas, Iran was and will - bypassing Pakistan's EEZ and extended EEZ. I have earlier shared studies carried out by an Indian consortium, please read those and you will appreciate the lengths Indians have gone to avoid all our EEZ.

This either will be two independent pipelines (I) Iran to Pakistan and (II) Iran to India from a common distribution facility in Iran, or a single pipeline to India with a tie-in to Pakistan. They can and will avoid Pakistan EEZ.

those have been nullified now......after the extension of our continental shelf in our EEZ......

So this pipeline is essentially IPI either by land or sea. Anyway, we need to stop them from building this pipeline into india if they persist, then now pipeline at all.

After S400 things r a lot changed!

 

[farok84]

those have been nullified now......after the extension of our continental shelf in our EEZ......

So this pipeline is essentially IPI either by land or sea. Anyway, we need to stop them from building this pipeline into india if they persist, then now pipeline at all.

After S400 things r a lot changed!

They (SAGE) made a presentation on March 29th, 2018 in Gujarat, and is available on their website, you can go and read it, although the presentation is not as detailed as the study itself, but it should serve as a good start to understand how it's not nullified or you can continue to make ill-informed, irrational comments based solely on assumptions and wishful thinking. They do not need our lands or our seabed (including all our EEZ and extended EEZ) to lay this Iran to India pipeline - and are willing to pay extra buck for it. The 'from Iran to India offshore pipeline via Gwader' claims were peddled by our comical media which were never substantiated by official statements. Please read the report by TASS or other Russian media outlets on the MOUs signed by Iran and Russia in 2017, for better understanding.

We can continue to import expensive LNG or can seize this opportunity to energize our economy. Gazprom or someone else, sooner or later, will lay this Iran to India pipeline with or without us - If sanity prevails, we will enthusiastically join this regional economic initiative rather than benching ourselves ludicrously.

You can also read post # 35 for a rational analysis by another member.

 

[Umair Nawaz]

They (SAGE) made a presentation on March 29th, 2018 in Gujarat, and is available on their website, you can go and read it, although the presentation is not as detailed as the study itself, but it should serve as a good start to understand how it's not nullified or you can continue to make ill-informed, irrational comments based solely on assumptions and wishful thinking. They do not need our lands or our seabed (including all our EEZ and extended EEZ) to lay this Iran to India pipeline - and are willing to pay extra buck for it. The 'from Iran to India offshore pipeline via Gwader' claims were peddled by our comical media which were never substantiated by official statements. Please read the report by TASS or other Russian media outlets on the MOUs signed by Iran and Russia in 2017, for better understanding.

We can continue to import expensive LNG or can seize this opportunity to energize our economy. Gazprom or someone else, sooner or later, will lay this Iran to India pipeline with or without us - If sanity prevails, we will enthusiastically join this regional economic initiative rather than benching ourselves ludicrously.

You can also read post # 35 for a rational analysis by another member.

studies theoretically r not of much value unless they become reality.......its just like research papers which u write for yr PhD....unless u take them to a research center or a laboratory and make that concept happen in reality.

That particular pipeline yr taking abt, i have seen its concept diagrams here on PDF, its been under discussion in and out on this forum since past 2 years. Actually they r planning to make a junction with original pipeline which they already have been in talks with Oman.....They will use it to supply gas from Oman's Salala region, that will start almost at mid coast of Oman go through southern Arabian Sea into indian gujrat coast, most likely dwarka area........That was the original pipeline.

Now, Irani pipeline they want to build with just junction that original pipeline off the coast of Salala port all under sea and in iran that is to start from Chabahar area.

Now how has this been torpedoed? Well because of that 250 km Sq range extension of our continental shelf which now takes our EEZ right upto the South Arabian sea covering exactly the path of the undersea pipeline into gurjat in international waters....Thats how its torpedoed. One more clue is that this long voyage sea patrolling capabilities that Pakistan Navy has got in the past exact 2 years is another testimony of that fact that now they wish to completely cover the EEZ of Pakistan as well....All these Ocean going patron vessels suddenly being added into our navy, navy which used to only plan to defend out own coastal waters before in the war time, in just past two years in the era of previous Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Zaka, why do u think that has been changed?

Even this current CNS Abbasi has said in clear terms that we want to guard out EEZ fully and efficiently?

Actually in yr analysis yr too much focusing on indians, as to what they r doing or thinking or just plan to do. Yes india needs energy by hook or crook and they will never allow that to come through pakistan or anything to do with pakistan(even from our EEZ) because for ensuring of their growth its very vital for them to keep satisfying their energy needs thats how important it is for them....

Therefore they r still improvising, trying to find out of box innovative solutions, this SAGE study is just part of that....And this isnt the final presentation, they will keep coming back again and again until they give in and submit infront of Pakistan and her National Interests.
Im all up for if they can still bring this pipeline if this can be made without involving Pakistan, because this will be so expensive that a mere 2 trillion economy who wishes to grow further and is now 100% in judochristian influence, WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN SUCH AN EXPENSIVE UNDER SEA PIPELINE PROJECT......because after the extension of our EEZ they might have to forget abt gujrat and take it all the way to either Mumbai, or just Goa.
If Pakistan dont get involved in it, i would be the most happiest man on this earth for the above mentioned reasons.

Now abt Russia, Gazprom is a state consortium and she wishes to make that IPI concept into reality as already mentioned by this Russian Analysis on the OP(it aint pakistani media who is saying this) Thats why our delegation has visited Moscow to sign or discuss this concept. Gazprom now owns the Fars gas fields in mid southern iran area after the europeans didnt invest....it is they who want to build this IPI concept pipeline as its most economical for every party involved, neither do Russia has this much money....And Russia unlike indians do understand the infeasibility of under sea pipeline from middle east all the way to indian coasts, because of reasons mentioned.....So either by land or by using Pakistan's coastal waters or EEZ they wish to build this pipeline with an ultimate aim to gaining a foothold on larger indian market, which u have also said earlier. That remains THEIR ultimate aim.

But i have already told u that after s400, that possibility remains slim. As to now questions have been arising in pakistan as to how much can Pakistan and this Putin's Russia CAN realistically trust eachother? FATF is an example too.

Ideally as i have made it clear that Russia should rather think abt catering the 5th largest market of Pakistan, which is realistically growing right now in this region on its own, others r just finding ideas, solutions for their own growth which seems stagnated(China, India, Iran etc).....This advantage we have is because of the losses to economy we suffered in WOT, and how just a decade ago in mushy era we were growing at an average 7.5 and touching 8% around 2007, which india touched first time in their history in 2010. This is what we r looking at with al that CPEC and all going on along with it.......Thats why i said Russia must concentrate on Pakistan and Pakistani market only for foreseeable future. Flush indian drams down the toilet, Pakistan will now only grow even faster then india will ever grow from now on......if things remain right. And now with that possibility of that coastal oil discovery and all we will just keep on growing faster. And an energy company like gazprom should know that too.

But another idea is that if Russia is still obsessed with that indian market, that just simply make it build the pipeline of gas through CPEC rout into China instead, as its already building a north south pipeline in pakistan for this purpose to begin with. just connect these two projects together, as this idea has been floated in this threads OP too.....and give russians even bigger market then mere indian.

Win win for everyone.

 

[Umair Nawaz]

If you have read the study, you will know that the study comprise of two start points;

An abstract from the study;

"Chabahar port or Kuh-e-Mubarak would serve as point of origin to proposed 1300 Km
long Iran-Oman-India pipeline to transport natural gas. The Oman-Iran-India pipeline or
Middle-East to India deep-water natural gas pipeline (MEIDP) may have two potential
start points - at Ras al Jafan in Oman and Chabahar in Iran. The 1300 km long deepwater
pipeline may terminate near Porbandar in Gujarat. It can then be connected to
India’s national gas grid."

And a map for the proposed pipeline(s) in the study;

View attachment 504995

this doesnt avoid our extended EEZ but rather is the old plan when our EEZ wasnt extended upto 250 sq km.

This is outdated info.

 

[farok84]

this doesnt avoid our extended EEZ but rather is the old plan when our EEZ wasnt extended upto 250 sq km.

This is outdated info.

Yes, it doesn't. It was from the cover of 2017 study that Assocham endorsed, I used it to explain the other gentleman the starting point of the potential routes.

They have incorporated the extended EEZ in their 2018 release.

 

[farok84]

studies theoretically r not of much value unless they become reality.......its just like research papers which u write for yr PhD....unless u take them to a research center or a laboratory and make that concept happen in reality.

That particular pipeline yr taking abt, i have seen its concept diagrams here on PDF, its been under discussion in and out on this forum since past 2 years. Actually they r planning to make a junction with original pipeline which they already have been in talks with Oman.....They will use it to supply gas from Oman's Salala region, that will start almost at mid coast of Oman go through southern Arabian Sea into indian gujrat coast, most likely dwarka area........That was the original pipeline.

Now, Irani pipeline they want to build with just junction that original pipeline off the coast of Salala port all under sea and in iran that is to start from Chabahar area.

Now how has this been torpedoed? Well because of that 250 km Sq range extension of our continental shelf which now takes our EEZ right upto the South Arabian sea covering exactly the path of the undersea pipeline into gurjat in international waters....Thats how its torpedoed. One more clue is that this long voyage sea patrolling capabilities that Pakistan Navy has got in the past exact 2 years is another testimony of that fact that now they wish to completely cover the EEZ of Pakistan as well....All these Ocean going patron vessels suddenly being added into our navy, navy which used to only plan to defend out own coastal waters before in the war time, in just past two years in the era of previous Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Zaka, why do u think that has been changed?

Even this current CNS Abbasi has said in clear terms that we want to guard out EEZ fully and efficiently?

Actually in yr analysis yr too much focusing on indians, as to what they r doing or thinking or just plan to do. Yes india needs energy by hook or crook and they will never allow that to come through pakistan or anything to do with pakistan(even from our EEZ) because for ensuring of their growth its very vital for them to keep satisfying their energy needs thats how important it is for them....

Therefore they r still improvising, trying to find out of box innovative solutions, this SAGE study is just part of that....And this isnt the final presentation, they will keep coming back again and again until they give in and submit infront of Pakistan and her National Interests.
Im all up for if they can still bring this pipeline if this can be made without involving Pakistan, because this will be so expensive that a mere 2 trillion economy who wishes to grow further and is now 100% in judochristian influence, WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN SUCH AN EXPENSIVE UNDER SEA PIPELINE PROJECT......because after the extension of our EEZ they might have to forget abt gujrat and take it all the way to either Mumbai, or just Goa.
If Pakistan dont get involved in it, i would be the most happiest man on this earth for the above mentioned reasons.

Now abt Russia, Gazprom is a state consortium and she wishes to make that IPI concept into reality as already mentioned by this Russian Analysis on the OP(it aint pakistani media who is saying this) Thats why our delegation has visited Moscow to sign or discuss this concept. Gazprom now owns the Fars gas fields in mid southern iran area after the europeans didnt invest....it is they who want to build this IPI concept pipeline as its most economical for every party involved, neither do Russia has this much money....And Russia unlike indians do understand the infeasibility of under sea pipeline from middle east all the way to indian coasts, because of reasons mentioned.....So either by land or by using Pakistan's coastal waters or EEZ they wish to build this pipeline with an ultimate aim to gaining a foothold on larger indian market, which u have also said earlier. That remains THEIR ultimate aim.

But i have already told u that after s400, that possibility remains slim. As to now questions have been arising in pakistan as to how much can Pakistan and this Putin's Russia CAN realistically trust eachother? FATF is an example too.

Ideally as i have made it clear that Russia should rather think abt catering the 5th largest market of Pakistan, which is realistically growing right now in this region on its own, others r just finding ideas, solutions for their own growth which seems stagnated(China, India, Iran etc).....This advantage we have is because of the losses to economy we suffered in WOT, and how just a decade ago in mushy era we were growing at an average 7.5 and touching 8% around 2007, which india touched first time in their history in 2010. This is what we r looking at with al that CPEC and all going on along with it.......Thats why i said Russia must concentrate on Pakistan and Pakistani market only for foreseeable future. Flush indian drams down the toilet, Pakistan will now only grow even faster then india will ever grow from now on......if things remain right. And now with that possibility of that coastal oil discovery and all we will just keep on growing faster. And an energy company like gazprom should know that too.

But another idea is that if Russia is still obsessed with that indian market, that just simply make it build the pipeline of gas through CPEC rout into China instead, as its already building a north south pipeline in pakistan for this purpose to begin with. just connect these two projects together, as this idea has been floated in this threads OP too.....and give russians even bigger market then mere indian.

Win win for everyone.

I agree with some of what you wrote. What I don't agree is childish attitude that since Russia sold weapons to India we should now become mortal enemy to Russia. The people at the helms of things, I hope and wish are smarter than this and realize the limitation of our economy, which you actually did when you agreed to coupling with China. So I believe the lack of realization isn't the issue here.

I focused on India, as it is a bigger market than ours, and is the sole reason for this whole exercise.

Why will China join an offshore gas pipeline operated by Gazprom to buy gas from Gazprom operated Iranian fields to be transported via a Gazprom operated pipeline over Pakistan? Chinese are way smarter than this. It wasn't Gazprom that bought Total's shares when they backed off, but CNPC. So, if ever China decides to buy Iranian gas transported through Pakistan, it will be from their own developed Phase(s) of South Pars field, through their own operated pipeline(s).

India is ferociously adamant at avoiding our EEZ, if Gazprom goes to them with a proposal that includes Pakistan's EEZ and paying Pakistan millions (through tariffs), it will be the end of this. No government in India can agree to this and survive. They will rather continue to buy expensive LNG from US (13.9% of Brent oil) than cheaper gas passing through Pakistan. It is India who will bear the higher construction and operational cost not Gazprom. So, Gazprom will find a route that address India's concern, and will likely follow the one in SAGE's study mitigating our extended EEZ. Even after all this circumventing, this gas will turn out to be cheaper than US's LNG. I believe Gazprom will suggest India two options;

1. Iran (Chahbahar) to India (Gujrat) offshore pipeline with an offshoot from within Iranian waters to Pakistan. We should not agree to this. This will cap our price negotiation and will increase dependability.
2. Iran to India and Iran to Pakistan pipelines independent of each other from a common distribution facility. This will be more attractive to both parties keeping in view their security concerns.

I fail to connect Navy's play here, even if Gazprom miraculously layed this pipeline through our EEZ it will be with our approval and they will be paying us hefty tariff.

 

[Umair Nawaz]

@farok84

First i will address Russian S400 saga and the possible future of Pak-Russo relations.......

The tiny puny Island nation of Britain made the giant bomber called Avro Vulcan with 98% components made in Britain.
136 of these were built mainly for long range bombing missions and as a means of delivering Nuclear Payload to USSR in case of a Nuclear conflict.
The British only had 200 Megatons of Nuclear strike power . The Soviets had Gigatons not Megatons. A few Thousand Megatons of Nuclear strike power.
The British were aware of that and told their Vulcan pilots not to return to UK after dropping Hydrogen bombs on Soviet cities. The Soviet retaliatory strike would be so massive that by the times the Vulcans return to Britain the tiny island would be converted into Smouldering radioactive charcoal uninhabitable for the next thousand years.
The Pilots of British Nuclear strike force were taught Mongolian language and given coordinates of Mongolian prairies where they could possibly land their jets after dropping bombs on Soviet Union, and start living in Mongolia.
Yet the undoing of the scary Soviet Giant came down by the hand of another supposedly insignificant nation, Pakistan.
A young Soviet Spy was observing it all ,same as his other colleagues. This new Intelligence force they came across was working in ways they never saw before. The keen and talented Soviet Spy was called "Vladimir Putin".
Today he is the president of Russia and remembers all that. He is still wary of Pakistan and still can't trust Pakistan .

R u getting my point? we need to understand the magnitude and entire dynamics of any relationship past present and future, all involved......by having a full understanding of grand chess board and of the great game being played in the world today......Thats why i said yr too focused on mere india only but neglecting the entire regional politics.
This is how Russia or Putin's Russia is thinking......

Now by putting S400 sales to this picture, this lack of trust thing that i mentioned earlier just swells. Now in such a context the future of Pak-Russo relations does seem very limited, as this sends a clear message to Pakistan from Russia. This below video will explain this better.....

Now keeping in view the above, now lets talk abt this pipeline in this context and scenario. After this S400 move india has limited pakistan's defence and political relationship with Russia both in normal and strategic terms, and through this pipeline they wish to further limit or finnish this relationship by ''going for the kill''

This video above further reinforces yr points much more then mine if u think in that way........But what im telling u here is about how should we maneuver now and how should we decide the future course of this relationship......whatever i have been writing till now is being written in that context by keeping all of the things i mentioned above and what u have already written in the back of my mind (its not like we both r too far off thinking wise).

If india does really manages to turn this pipeline concept into reality by going undersea and making it go till their gujrat coast, let them go on...........It will be far too expansive for even india to build it and then sustain it....even the coastal ports of india arnt suitable to even build a deep sea port because of the large concentration of under sea rocks so much so that the large container ship have to park themselves 45 km off the port of mumbai because they cant go further......But there is no such problem in Pakistani coasts, its just as smooth under sea as it can get......Thats why deep sea port like Gwadar is being build in Pakistan not india or iran. Which by 2045 will have a capacity of 400 million metric tons only second to Shanghai port's 500 million metric tons capacity, making her the second largest port of any kind in the world.

Now keeping that in mind, i believe that let them build this undersea pipeline, first they will waste 100s of billions of dollars building it, then if they r still able to build it which i highly doubt they can with their mere 2 trillion economy which is already slowing down, then i highly highly doubt they will be able to sustain it, because all we have to do is send some frogmen to puncture it in multiple places time to time if they do manage to build it so close to our EEZ.....The expenses of its long term maintenance, even the expanses they will have to bear just to merely subsidise this gas to be send to indian homes and economy, or industry will be mammoth.......Resulting in further slowing down their already sterilized and stagnated economy and with a constant and permanent burden on their reserves in subsidising this forever.......Overall it will mean that india will get only a short term gain from this but will have a white elephant in the long run. Because make no mistake iranis, russians or even omanis will not be selling this gas for free either, they will be selling them on profit ie expansively...because irani economic situation is there for everybody to see and so is Russian as explained in that video, omani maybe fine for now but will not be forever too.(with all thats happening in yemen or GCC and iran politics, they will get negative impacts on them too economically in one form or another)

They will have to run to Pakistan just to keep their expanses under their means....as they say AAMDANI ATHANNI KHARCHA RUPAIYA!!!!!

U need to keep in mind the mentality of this Hindu Banya too......they will eventually give in. Hindu banya is just ziddi like a spoiled kid......Thats why i said i will be the happiest man on earth if they succeed in building this project of this great magnitude.

Now im focussing on the point number 2 what u made at the end of yr post.

Regarding Russia and China, well China has already shown interest in taking the existing gas pipeline of IPI into China from pakistan rout along CPEC when india backed out......Well maybe that gas wont come from Russian stock of Fars field but atleast Russia is building that pipeline (north south) in pakistan isnt it(forget abt that undersea or off shore pipeline, let them build it) So there is something for them too in it rather then having nothing at all isnt it? Afterall as explained earlier these relation with Russia now will always remain limited.

Pakistan herself is a country of 220 million people, and Russia is of mere 140 million, it will definitely be in their interests to cater this giant market of Pakistan too in her energy needs......independently of india. Because if not, then the way i see it, its their own loss not really ours!

 

[Umair Nawaz]

now we wont suck up to anybody and appease no one anymore

 

[CriticalThought]

@farok84

First i will address Russian S400 saga and the possible future of Pak-Russo relations.......

The tiny puny Island nation of Britain made the giant bomber called Avro Vulcan with 98% components made in Britain.
136 of these were built mainly for long range bombing missions and as a means of delivering Nuclear Payload to USSR in case of a Nuclear conflict.
The British only had 200 Megatons of Nuclear strike power . The Soviets had Gigatons not Megatons. A few Thousand Megatons of Nuclear strike power.
The British were aware of that and told their Vulcan pilots not to return to UK after dropping Hydrogen bombs on Soviet cities. The Soviet retaliatory strike would be so massive that by the times the Vulcans return to Britain the tiny island would be converted into Smouldering radioactive charcoal uninhabitable for the next thousand years.
The Pilots of British Nuclear strike force were taught Mongolian language and given coordinates of Mongolian prairies where they could possibly land their jets after dropping bombs on Soviet Union, and start living in Mongolia.
Yet the undoing of the scary Soviet Giant came down by the hand of another supposedly insignificant nation, Pakistan.
A young Soviet Spy was observing it all ,same as his other colleagues. This new Intelligence force they came across was working in ways they never saw before. The keen and talented Soviet Spy was called "Vladimir Putin".
Today he is the president of Russia and remembers all that. He is still wary of Pakistan and still can't trust Pakistan .

R u getting my point? we need to understand the magnitude and entire dynamics of any relationship past present and future, all involved......by having a full understanding of grand chess board and of the great game being played in the world today......Thats why i said yr too focused on mee india only but neglecting the entire regional politics.
This is how Russia or Putin's Russia is thinking......

Now by putting S400 sales to this picture, this lack of trust thing that i mentioned earlier just swells. Now in such a context the future of Pak-Russo relations does seem very limited, as this sends a clear message to Pakistan from Russia. This below video will explain this better.....

Now keeping in view the above, now lets talk abt this pipeline in this context and scenario. After this S400 move india has limited pakistan's defence and political relationship with Pakistan, and through this pipeline they wish to future limit or finnish this relationship by ''going for the kill''

This video above further reinforces yr points much more then mine if u think in that way........But what im telling u here is about how should we maneuver now and how should we decide the future course of this relationship......whatever i have been writing till now is being written in that context by keeping all of the things i mentioned above and what u have already written in the back of my mind (its not like we both r too far off thinking wise).

If india does really manages to turn this pipeline concept into reality by going undersea and making it go till their gujrat coast, let them go on...........It will be far too expansive for even india to build it and then sustain it....even the coastal ports of india arnt suitable to even build a deep sea port because of the large concentration of under sea rocks so much so that the large container ship have to park themselves 45 km off the port of mumbai because they cant go further......But there is no such problem in Pakistani coasts, its just as smooth under sea as it can get......Thats why deep sea port like Gwadar is being build in Pakistan not india or iran. Which by 2045 will have a capacity of 400 million metric tons only second to Shanghai port's 500 million metric tons capacity, making her the second largest port of any kind in the world.

Now keeping that in mind, i believe that let them build this undersea pipeline, first they will waste 100s of billions dollars building it, then if they r still able to build it which i highly doubt they can with their mere 2 trillion economy which is already slowing down, then i highly highly doubt they will be able to sustain it, because all we have to do is send some frogmen to puncture it in multiple places time to time if they do manage to build it so close to our EEZ.....The expenses of its long term maintenance, even the expanses they will have to bear just to merely subsidise this gas to be send to indian homes and economy, or industry will be mammoth.......Resulting in further slowing down their already sterilized and stagnated economy and with a constant and permanent burden on their reserves in subsidising this forever.......Overall it will mean that india will get only a short term gain from this put will have a white elephant in the long run. Because make no mistake iranis, russians or even omanis will not be selling this gas for free either, they will be selling them on profit ie expansively...because irani economic situation is there for everybody to see and so is Russian as explained in that video, omani maybe fine for now but will not be forever too.

They will have to run to Pakistan just to keep their expanses under their means....as they say AAMDANI ATHANNI KHARCHA PURAIYA!!!!!

U need to keep in mind the mentality of this Hindu Banya too......they will eventually give in. Hindu banya is just ziddi like a spoiled kid......Thats why i said i will be the happiest man on earth if they succeed in building this project of this great magnitude.

Now im focussing on the point number 2 what u made at the end of yr post.

Regarding Russia and China, well China has already shown interest in taking the existing gas pipeline of IPI into China from pakistan rout along CPEC when india backed out......Well maybe that gas wont come from Russian stock of Fars field but atleast Russia is building that pipeline (north south) in pakistan isnt it(forget abt that undersea or off shore pipeline, let them build it) So there is something for them too in it rather then having nothing at all isnt it? Afterall as explained earlier these relation with Russia now will always remain limited.

Pakistan herself is a country of 220 million people, and Russia is of mere 140 million, it will definitely be in their interests to cater this giant market of Pakistan too in her energy needs......independently of india. Because if not, then the way i see it, its their own loss not really ours!

*Ahem*. NEVER interrupt the enemy while he is making a mistake. Some analysis is best left unpublished.

 

[nahtanbob]

studies theoretically r not of much value unless they become reality.......its just like research papers which u write for yr PhD....unless u take them to a research center or a laboratory and make that concept happen in reality.

That particular pipeline yr taking abt, i have seen its concept diagrams here on PDF, its been under discussion in and out on this forum since past 2 years. Actually they r planning to make a junction with original pipeline which they already have been in talks with Oman.....They will use it to supply gas from Oman's Salala region, that will start almost at mid coast of Oman go through southern Arabian Sea into indian gujrat coast, most likely dwarka area........That was the original pipeline.

Now, Irani pipeline they want to build with just junction that original pipeline off the coast of Salala port all under sea and in iran that is to start from Chabahar area.

Now how has this been torpedoed? Well because of that 250 km Sq range extension of our continental shelf which now takes our EEZ right upto the South Arabian sea covering exactly the path of the undersea pipeline into gurjat in international waters....Thats how its torpedoed. One more clue is that this long voyage sea patrolling capabilities that Pakistan Navy has got in the past exact 2 years is another testimony of that fact that now they wish to completely cover the EEZ of Pakistan as well....All these Ocean going patron vessels suddenly being added into our navy, navy which used to only plan to defend out own coastal waters before in the war time, in just past two years in the era of previous Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Zaka, why do u think that has been changed?

Even this current CNS Abbasi has said in clear terms that we want to guard out EEZ fully and efficiently?

Actually in yr analysis yr too much focusing on indians, as to what they r doing or thinking or just plan to do. Yes india needs energy by hook or crook and they will never allow that to come through pakistan or anything to do with pakistan(even from our EEZ) because for ensuring of their growth its very vital for them to keep satisfying their energy needs thats how important it is for them....

Therefore they r still improvising, trying to find out of box innovative solutions, this SAGE study is just part of that....And this isnt the final presentation, they will keep coming back again and again until they give in and submit infront of Pakistan and her National Interests.
Im all up for if they can still bring this pipeline if this can be made without involving Pakistan, because this will be so expensive that a mere 2 trillion economy who wishes to grow further and is now 100% in judochristian influence, WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN SUCH AN EXPENSIVE UNDER SEA PIPELINE PROJECT......because after the extension of our EEZ they might have to forget abt gujrat and take it all the way to either Mumbai, or just Goa.
If Pakistan dont get involved in it, i would be the most happiest man on this earth for the above mentioned reasons.

Now abt Russia, Gazprom is a state consortium and she wishes to make that IPI concept into reality as already mentioned by this Russian Analysis on the OP(it aint pakistani media who is saying this) Thats why our delegation has visited Moscow to sign or discuss this concept. Gazprom now owns the Fars gas fields in mid southern iran area after the europeans didnt invest....it is they who want to build this IPI concept pipeline as its most economical for every party involved, neither do Russia has this much money....And Russia unlike indians do understand the infeasibility of under sea pipeline from middle east all the way to indian coasts, because of reasons mentioned.....So either by land or by using Pakistan's coastal waters or EEZ they wish to build this pipeline with an ultimate aim to gaining a foothold on larger indian market, which u have also said earlier. That remains THEIR ultimate aim.

But i have already told u that after s400, that possibility remains slim. As to now questions have been arising in pakistan as to how much can Pakistan and this Putin's Russia CAN realistically trust eachother? FATF is an example too.

Ideally as i have made it clear that Russia should rather think abt catering the 5th largest market of Pakistan, which is realistically growing right now in this region on its own, others r just finding ideas, solutions for their own growth which seems stagnated(China, India, Iran etc).....This advantage we have is because of the losses to economy we suffered in WOT, and how just a decade ago in mushy era we were growing at an average 7.5 and touching 8% around 2007, which india touched first time in their history in 2010. This is what we r looking at with al that CPEC and all going on along with it.......Thats why i said Russia must concentrate on Pakistan and Pakistani market only for foreseeable future. Flush indian drams down the toilet, Pakistan will now only grow even faster then india will ever grow from now on......if things remain right. And now with that possibility of that coastal oil discovery and all we will just keep on growing faster. And an energy company like gazprom should know that too.

But another idea is that if Russia is still obsessed with that indian market, that just simply make it build the pipeline of gas through CPEC rout into China instead, as its already building a north south pipeline in pakistan for this purpose to begin with. just connect these two projects together, as this idea has been floated in this threads OP too.....and give russians even bigger market then mere indian.

Win win for everyone.

it is easy to dream plans with other people's money
try coming up with something with your own money