The real threat from NaMo

[Abingdonboy]

If we have average growth rate of 7 plus % for next 10 years, it will be enough.

7-8% for a 15-20 year period is needed but a few years (4-5) of 9-10% won't hurt either but I don't think anyone can expect that until at least 2017/18, getting back to 7%+ by 2015 will be great and then from there maintaining it.


IF Modi does it right he is set for at least another term which is a decade of high growth and then he will have changed the face of Indian politics forever and the next govt whether it be BJP or Congress will ONLY be elected and kept in office if they deliver on the economic front. As such Modi is truly set to change India forever IF he lives up to his own hype, no one is going to want to listen to the BS of vote-bank and decisive politics again if Modi delivers on the economy.

 

[IND151]

7% is the minimum we should target.

There was a report a while back that just to absorb the new labour entering the market each year, we need to grow at 7%. That means at 7% we would just maintain the current employment ration. Below that we are increasing unemployment year on year.

So 7 is bare minimum. We need to improve that.

Read the word plus.

 

[farhan_9909]

Wishful thinking. Tell me how Indians would miss the UPA who had undermined the economist PM at almost every turn? The mandate Modi now has with the sole power in his hands (as opposed to the duel power centres under UPA) means he is set to do a LOT more than MMS could ever have hoped to do.


This was based on a hung parliament after the general elections in 2014 but NO ONE saw Modi achieving the kind of mandate he did. As such those 6% figures are woefully outdated. As you can see for yourself the moment that it became clear Modi was going to win and by some margin the stock markets in India sky rocketed and have been doing so ever since. This shows you the confidence there now is in Modi and the Indian govt to conduct the kind of reforms necessary to see higher growth. This year won't be much higher than forecast but Morgan Stanley before the elections predicted 6.8% growth for 2015-16 you can guarantee this will now be much higher and from 2016 onwards even higher than that.

We will see,The Point is even Countries like Pakistan with alot of internal conflicts are getting closer to 6% in the years to come.Achievement would be if Modi indeed makes it to clock something beyond 8% before 2018-19

 

[notsuperstitious]

your comparing imran khan with a indian origin modi?

Hell no man! Paagal hain kya???

 

[farhan_9909]

Hell no man! Paagal hain kya???

Bay Shak

 

[Progressive1]

Ironically..It is quite good for India that this happens.

The more Pakistan cuts from its development budget to finance its military, the greater the economic gap between India and Pakistan. Which initself will force PA to take even more from the budget.

PA will then try to bridge the gap by forcing Pakistan to become a rentier state. Taking money and weapons from US/China in exchange for services and policies suitable for those nations. This will lead to social polarization and instability.

Not talking abt merits/reality of your prediction but can you tell me how it will make you happy seeing common human in misery? I am Pakistani but it will be dream come true for me If whole of subcontinent somehow reaches at least mid tier standard of living (8000 $+ GDP per capita nominal) I consider poverty as a collective human disgrace.

 

[anyrandom]

I believe that 10% growth rate is achievable. Subramanian Swamy has said that Indian economy basically depends on internal cash flow and the input of external cash(FDI) is low in %age. So if the Indian govt makes a blitzkrieg of reforms then according to him 12% is achievable. Do note that Swamy is not a nutcase but he has written papers with a Nobel laurate.

Among major reforms he recommend are:

100% FDI in infrastructure after a national security check
Small airports and humongous number of cold storages to store and export agriculture products.
Coupon based subsidies.
Abolish income tax and transparently auction coal blocks,2g,3g,4g which will compensate more then enough. Ex: Coal block auction can earn the govt $180 billion!!

Q&A: Subramanian Swamy on Ending ‘Tax Terrorism’ - India Real Time - WSJ

@Abingdonboy

 

[Contrarian]

Not talking abt merits/reality of your prediction but can you tell me how it will make you happy seeing common human in misery? I am Pakistani but it will be dream come true for me If whole of subcontinent somehow reaches at least mid tier standard of living (8000 $+ GDP per capita nominal) I consider poverty as a collective human disgrace.

I am nothing if not pragmatic and thorough.

Any Pakistani prosperity with the current set of powers in Pakistan ie having the military as an independent, extra constitutional power, exercising authority and pressure over the people and Government of Pakistan, will only lead to PA solidifying and continuing of its policy of harming India.

This is because the influence, power and money that PA enjoys depends on India being steadfastly maintained as enemy number 1. It has to keep cultivating the image of an India that is out to take Pakistan and PA as the sole defence against that.

PA has slowly started to diversify that and hedge its bets by increasing anti-Americanism in Pakistani society, so that while GoP gets some space to deal with India, it does not hurt PA funding and influence.

However, till the time that GoP exercises utter, absolute, indisputable authority over PA like how it is in other countries, prosperity for Pakistan implies problems for India.

The day GoP are able to cut PA down to its constitutional role only, will be the day that the statement ' a strong, stable Pakistan is in India's interest'.

 

[IND151]

We will see,The Point is even Countries like Pakistan with alot of internal conflicts are getting closer to 6% in the years to come.Achievement would be if Modi indeed makes it to clock something beyond 8% before 2018-19

That 6% is yet to come; even if Pak manages to do so, remember it has much smaller economic base compared to India.

From 1999 to 2008 Indian average GDP growth rate was 6.93% and for 2004-2008 it was 8.04%.

My point is economies with smaller economic base comparatively growth faster, once they become large, they significantly slow down (though in case of India it is more to do with Policy paralysis and weak economic conditions of EU and US since 2008, now situation is better as INR has recovered.)

The better example is Chinese economy which has slowed down.

https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&r...QbdTp4piCu5XZFLRIiHQJQA&bvm=bv.67229260,d.c2E

 

[farhan_9909]

That 6% is yet to come; even if Pak manages to do so, remember it has much smaller economic base compared to India.

From 1999 to 2008 Indian average GDP growth rate was 6.93% and for 2004-2008 it was 8.04%.

My point is economies with smaller economic base comparatively growth faster, once they become large, they significantly slow down (though in case of India it is more to do with Policy paralysis and weak economic conditions of EU and US since 2008, now situation is better as INR has recovered.)

The better example is Chinese economy which has slowed down.

https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCcQFjAA&url=http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&ei=hLB9U-LlGMvHuASnqIC4Dg&usg=AFQjCNEya-cQbdTp4piCu5XZFLRIiHQJQA&bvm=bv.67229260,d.c2E

Sorry my friend but it has more to do with total population and the journey toward saturation.

We have a small GDP but so does population,YOu have a big GDP but so does a much bigger Population.

Economies reach into saturation state upon per capita income.Such as if india per capita reache's upto 50k$ than it will also have growth rate of 2-3% such as in the west.

Japan reached into saturation state again because of limited population

 

[IND151]

I believe that 10% growth rate is achievable. Subramanian Swamy has said that Indian economy basically depends on internal cash flow and the input of external cash(FDI) is low in %age. So if the Indian govt makes a blitzkrieg of reforms then according to him 12% is achievable. Do note that Swamy is not a nutcase but he has written papers with a Nobel laurate.

Among major reforms he recommend are:

100% FDI in infrastructure after a national security check
Small airports and humongous number of cold storages to store and export agriculture products.
Coupon based subsidies.
Abolish income tax and transparently auction coal blocks,2g,3g,4g which will compensate more then enough. Ex: Coal block auction can earn the govt $180 billion!!

Q&A: Subramanian Swamy on Ending ‘Tax Terrorism’ - India Real Time - WSJ

@Abingdonboy

That's needed really, especially when 30% of agriculture products become waste due to lack of enough cold storage.

 

[indiatester]

It will not be possible unless we have large manufacturing sector, which needs serious reforms.

In early 1990s we used to have average GDP growth rate of 11% even without reforms, but then our econmy was small and we had smaller economic base.

We have enough scope for growth even within the agriculture sector. Our yields have languished and so have our logistics. We have enough of these "low hanging fruits" that can be targeted effectively.

Growth is not solely dependent on how big or small we are. You must also consider what the potential is and if it is easy enough. Its tough to grow the real big economies because of the saturation they have reached wrt productivity per person and exploitation of the natural resources available. We are definitely not near potential in the first aspect. With the right infra and policy it can be improved a lot starting with agriculture itself. Manufacturing and be setup for high growth while we concentrate on agriculture.

 

[Kurama]

your comparing imran khan with a indian origin modi?

no.... modi is way better then that scum..
taliban khan is not only terrorist but also rapists...:yuk::yuk:
rapists and terrorist like him shou be rot in hell gutter ..like worms....


ps.. if u want respect for ur leaders ..give respect to otheres....

no need to be sorry about anything mate, if they can do it, so can we.

And don't worry about getting banned, the way this forum is going, it will get banned in India anyway.

i hv decided to write a letter to the ministry of information and technology to ban this site in india...
as they propagate anti india propaganda as well as they insult otheres religion and abuse others leaders...

 

[dray]

no.... modi is way better then that scum..
taliban khan is not only terrorist but also rapists...:yuk::yuk:
rapists and terrorist like him shou be rot in hell gutter ..like worms....


ps.. if u want respect for ur leaders ..give respect to otheres....


i hv decided to write a letter to the ministry of information and technology to ban this site in india...
as they propagate anti india propaganda as well as they insult otheres religion and abuse others leaders...

They are finding it difficult to digest that even Indian Muslims have voted for Modi instead of joining their Global Jihad. They know that the gap between India and Pakistan in terms of economic, political, & military might will get far more wider, hence the outburst of fear & insecurity. Sore loosers.

 

[nair]

The writer is attempting a simple thing...... Diverting the religious thoughts around modi to a Economic based thoughts.....