The possiblity that China become the world largest economy in 1-2 years?

[52051]

I think the chance is very real for China becoming the largest economy (in GDP term, otherwise she has been already) in 1-2 year frame:

With COVID-19, the US economy will take a very heavy hit, due to the pathetic execution of the shutdown, the COVID-19 is likely to be around in the US for a very long time until maybe 12-18 months later when vaccine become widely available.

The US is a service-based economy (80% of their GDP) with very little industrial power and a giant money-printing machine, they could not afford a national lock-down for long, their economy will take a very huge hit.

And on top of it, even after the lock down, the long term impact is still very painful as we have found in China, even with the lift of shutdown, COVID-19 will particularly destroy the confidence of customer in service sector like the catering industry, the film and entertainment industry, and the tourism industry and such, even the medical service industry take a hit.

That's why one US Fed bank boss forecast the US economy can down 50% and unemployment rate hit 30% with national lockdown, and most US-based IB forecast the economy will down 5% if the COVID-19 will be gone in a quarter(which it wont, thanks to the massive incompetence of US).

So it is realistic to believe the US's economy will be down 20%+ in 1-2 years, and the dollar currency wont be at this position any longer, with their even more aggressive money-printing scams to try to cure coronavirus....

With China's great ability to control the disease and being the world only super industrial power, with relatively little dependence on service sector, and with the massive investment projects (to science and industry and infrastructure, not to stock market like the US), I think the impact will be minimized.

So I think China will become the world largest economy within 1-2 years.

 

[S10]

Nope, 2025 at the very minimum even if COVID-19 drives US into a recession for the next two years.

With the world entering a recession, China's growth is going to slow to a crawl.

 

[Han Patriot]

In real economic terms, we already are the largest economy.

 

[Viva_Viet]

I think the chance is very real for China becoming the largest economy (in GDP term, otherwise she has been already) in 1-2 year frame:

With COVID-19, the US economy will take a very heavy hit, due to the pathetic execution of the shutdown, the COVID-19 is likely to be around in the US for a very long time until maybe 12-18 months later when vaccine become widely available.

The US is a service-based economy (80% of their GDP) with very little industrial power and a giant money-printing machine, they could not afford a national lock-down for long, their economy will take a very huge hit.

And on top of it, even after the lock down, the long term impact is still very painful as we have found in China, even with the lift of shutdown, COVID-19 will particularly destroy the confidence of customer in service sector like the catering industry, the film and entertainment industry, and the tourism industry and such, even the medical service industry take a hit.

That's why one US Fed bank boss forecast the US economy can down 50% and unemployment rate hit 30% with national lockdown, and most US-based IB forecast the economy will down 5% if the COVID-19 will be gone in a quarter(which it wont, thanks to the massive incompetence of US).

So it is realistic to believe the US's economy will be down 20%+ in 1-2 years, and the dollar currency wont be at this position any longer, with their even more aggressive money-printing scams to try to cure coronavirus....

With China's great ability to control the disease and being the world only super industrial power, with relatively little dependence on service sector, and with the massive investment projects (to science and industry and infrastructure, not to stock market like the US), I think the impact will be minimized.

So I think China will become the world largest economy within 1-2 years.

CN is also servive based economy now, 2/3 factories are leaving CN due to high labour cost and trade war.

CN is no longer manufacturing powerhouse, not mentioning CN is running out of rice and Xi has to keep trying to buying rice from other countries. No one buy CN 5G and car during the pademic.

 

[Song Hong]

China can have largest world GDP today once she allow Yuan to rise. This will be a loss of great prestige of USA vis-a-vis China. I am not sure if USA leaders are really serious when they keep asking Yuan to appreciate.

Likely Yuan appreciation accusation is merely strategy so that USA can get concession elsewhere.

 

[8888888888888]

Depends if the Yuan will increase in Value to the USD which I see little to no point since the USD is over inflated anyway.

 

[TruthSeeker]

If the USA is so devastated by the virus, who will buy all of China's stuff?

 

[Song Hong]

Since around 2010, China already has world largest industrial output.

In addition, her output in infrastructure is probably 8-10 times of USA (Strangely I have read on an article that USA spent more on infrastructure than China.... Western economics and accounting can be very rigged).

USA leads in phoney economy such as finance (aka toxic derivative), healthcare (big pharma, sick care), legal services(predatory lawsuits)...etc

Taken account in that, China today is already world largest in GDP in real terms.

 

[Viva_Viet]

If the USA is so devastated by the virus, who will buy all of China's stuff?

Thats the reason why Deng bow down to his White and Jap masters in 1978

Former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping

 

[Song Hong]

If China cut off USA, Walmart get empty the next day. USA will have hyperinflation.

With so many guns in private hand, there will be revolution. China strategic planners must be aware of that.

If the USA is so devastated by the virus, who will buy all of China's stuff?

 

[KAL-EL]

Thats the reason why Deng bow down to his White and Jap masters in 1978

Former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping

So when this happened, US started buying lots of Chinese goods?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

If the USA is so devastated by the virus, who will buy all of China's stuff?

Chinese people. What a stupid question.

 

[Nilgiri]

Thats the reason why Deng bow down to his White and Jap masters in 1978

Former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping

CN 2023

 

[52051]

If the USA is so devastated by the virus, who will buy all of China's stuff?

In case you have not known, China is the world largest market, including properties, cars, electronics and almost everything else.

Don't be sad US still remain the world biggest market for lawyer consulting and private medical business and prison business.

 

[Beidou2020]

Chinese people. What a stupid question.

They think China don’t consume anything. China is now the largest consumer market in many sectors. China was going to be the largest consumer in retail sales in 2020 before the pandemic. US has a larger overall consumer market is because of its services sector especially the healthcare. In merchandise goods, China is the largest in pretty much everything.