Today marks the official signing of the long awaited, discussed, contested contract of Rafale aircraft for Indian Air Force. Enter the first western designed fifth generation multi-role fighter aircraft, most suitable for Indian desire of airspace domination over the sub-continent.
However, I find today as the real reason for celebration across many circles, including Pakistan's military community. Why, you may reckon? The procurement of 36 Rafales is exactly where India should not be.
Here is my opinion!
A) The selection of Rafale, after many painstaking years was to replace the Migs of India, which are in hundreds. Out of 120 aircraft, only 36 are being procured, which defeats the purpose of the induction.
B) The French Dassault are notoriously expensive. The "cost through life" of their bird is 6 times any of its contemporary, ensuring that budget will always be short, and always be tight.
C) Till the time the aircraft capabilities are fully realized, it would already be fully neutralized by competitive procurements in the region.
D) Once Indian pilots fly the Rafale, the interest in TEJAS will diminish further, creating an internal battle of buying foreign versus building local, hence jeopardizing both programs.
E) The Rafale aircraft purchase kills the "make in india" dream of the Modi government, which shows that this decision is a panic decision to stop gap fill the entirely low serviceability rates of IAF, combined with shrinking squadron numbers and lack of pilots.
F) The Rafale deal essentially closes the door in Indian Air Force for BAE Systems Eurofighter Typhoon, and BAE Systems ES products. This will re-open the opportunity of other countries to access the platform/avionics from these sources.
G) Rafale program is essentially a lame duck political approach, which exemplifies the military policy of the state being run by civilians, never coming up to the expectation of uniformed professionals.
H) Rafale deal is highly suspected of big bribes from the French to all levels within the Indian administration, MOD, and IAF, which will eventually come out and further derail any future procurement plans of IAF to meet the existing and future requirements.
A) The 36 are needed specifically to provide a completely survivable asset in the ADA scenario. As pointed earlier, regardless of the bravado displayed here by the usual suspects from across the border(
and whom I am warning in no uncertain terms that snide remarks will lead to a short shelf life for them) the Sukhoi's are still in a semi-Hangar queen state as far as most well informed sources outside of this forum go.
The tit for tat on the Block-52 could be surmised as a theory but as such it may have been the IAF's tactic to try and sell it to the current class of Indian rulers who may be thrifty businessmen but have little knowledge of the product they are paying for.
B)The life cycle costs for 126 jets could be argued in the Rafale's favour and that too in a 20 year all inclusive
ownership program, but for 36 jets it is a different question. Many of the members on our side beat the dead drum of why we bought the block-52 without acknowledging or even giving an iota of honest introspection to the idea of having 30 years operating what is the same family. That means already having spent the tangible and intangible costs of platform logistics training, knowledge development and associated ancillary expenditures.
Try putting that down for a platform like the Rafale which for a laughable comment made by an Indian "senior"(
A "title" I abhor on this forum for even a third rate -pardon my french - F"ck is senior by posting nonsense as often as they can, and as many Indians do in their attempt to assuage their egos here) that operating the M2K gives them common ground - Other than the M-53 maintenance, there is nothing common as such between the M2K-5H and the Rafale which will let one Indian Airman stroll from one flightline onto another without rigorous and expensive training.
C) Extrapolate that too in terms of the lesser number. This is NOT a "common" jet like the Block-52 was to Pakistan(
and there too was an extensive learning curve because of what all is on the jet beyond what one can read on the DSCA notification)
D) I'd disagree; the Indian pilots have zero interest in the Tejas anyway. Not in its current form where it is handicapped by its flight envelope restrictions and Frankenstein supply chain and maintenance. As sweet looking and theoretically good performing as the Tejas is; it is not where the pilots of the IAF would like to be except perhaps the poor Mig-21M jockeys who barely make it past AJT.
The Rafale pilots are coming from experienced M2k pilots and maybe some from Mig-29 and Su-30 sqns
E & G) Make in India is happening in some half baked form or the other. As such Ive seen BEL & components being put into PK radio systems(to be reverse engineered later naturally) so one needs to give credit to their private industry as being eager and generally capable.
What I can agree with is that the Rafale deal is giving zip to the Make in India scheme and is essentially the Indian MoD completing a hurried purchase while circumventing their bureaucratic oversight as much as they can; and off course the Uri incident lit the fire in it.
F) perhaps not, since BAE has some stakes in the Gripen which might be bought per my sources within India due to the Tejas ending up more and more a technology-program than a serious light fighter.
H) That is plausible speculation but that is for the Indian CAG to uncover(or not). As such, the way the media and the bureucrats kept a microscope on the deal; it would have to involve a lot of offshore accounts. To add to the discounts that were poured in by the French, I think the there was certainly some money exchanged to move things along as the French were desperate (
the deal itself has a cost to Dassault and they have to recoup those costs as well, we are talking about the investment of preparing a proposal starting with the MRCA , Airshows, Marketing, negotiations, corporate lawyers and so on .. and then all of that expected revenue being whittled away down from $25 bn to just $8)
As an endnote, let it be clear that the Rafale brings with it an ENORMOUS Capability to India which now has the PAF pushing for its 5th Generation program to move a little faster. But as such, it is not the punch that the IAF wanted and only affirms the 2:1 availability and technological edge(after you take away the hangar queens and obsolete jets) that India wanted.
Pilot availability for generating enough sorties is another discussion entirely.
Till laters,
Oscar Hotel
You want to go for lunch----or dinner.
Damn, din know you were in LA.. just left this morning.. forum badgering aside; would have loved to hang out.
![[Bregs]](/data/avatars/m/148/148509.jpg?1491816884){kind=avatar}
trying to achieve the impossible as usual. Indians probably thought they were shopping for planes from a londa market 
. Usually when a person haggles they leave with a bargain but in indian case they decided to haggle for less by paying more 
.
