The Illusion of Chinese Weakness

[DragonEmpire]

We saw the white boys run away crying like little girls in 1950.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I agree with you.

As much as I admire China, it has a long, long way to go.

Money by itself mean jack sh!t. Japan has a 6 trillion dollar economy but it is mostly irrelevant on the global stage.

The ONLY thing that matters is military (technological) power and cultural power.

In both these spheres, the US dominates the globe by a mile and a half. No other country -- not Russia, not China, not Japan or Germany, France or UK -- can come even remotely close to challenging American global dominance in technology and culture.

That is unlikely to change through the middle of this century.

Do you know China seized the Scarborough shoal in 2012, despite America having a "mutual defense treaty" with the Philippines?

And Russia seized Crimea in 2014, despite an American promise in 1994 to protect Ukraine's borders and sovereignty.

There is no need for us to "match" American military power. All we have to do is make it so that they see no benefit in direct conflict, even if it means them backing down from their mutual defense treaties or other such international obligations.

America has not been interested in a direct conflict with China, ever since the Korean War in 1950. They know the costs will always outweigh the benefits.

That's why we are happy to only spend 1.4% of GDP on our military spending, nearly the lowest in the world.

We can wait and continue to build up our economy. Once our GDP has reached a decent level, by around 2025, we can push our military spending to 3% of GDP.

And maybe even eventually to 5% of GDP, similar to the current level of American and Russian military spending. By that time we will have a defense budget in the trillions, and the tech to absorb it. Which is more than enough to protect our own sovereignty.

America can keep the title of "global policeman" or global leader/hegemon as long as they want, and let them continue to spend trillions for it. Chinese economic and military power serves the interests of China above all else. We have enough power to defend our sovereignty, and that is what matters in the end.

 

[IND151]

“Beijing usually takes a lowest-common-denominator approach, adopting the safest and least controversial position and waiting to see the positions of other governments before revealing its own.”

There is nothing wrong in this, even India does so on may occasions.

China or any nation will want to enjoy high steady growth, one of the key factors to ensure this, is enjoying good, stable relations with neighboring nations and international ccommunity.

And the best way to ensure this dont get involved in any trouble or controversies whcih arise on global or regional level.

 

[AgentOrange]

If your "white boys" are so clever, then I guess you don't have anything to worry about?

Just leave China in peace, we are trying to develop our economy.

Whatever else you want to do is your own concern.

Rather than get riled up, understand that Mastakahn was playing to the conceit of many white people - they think they're overwhelmingly superior and no one will ever be able to challenge them. This is in line with SunZi's strategy that others were talking about. Sarcasm doesn't translate well over the internet but if you're gonna be online, best that you understand it.

 

[Okemos]

I will answer your question with a question: why did China allow the RMB to float, when everything seemed to be working so well for it under the dollar peg?

The answer to my question is the same as the answer to your question about the Plaza Accord.



One only needs to look at Europe to see how this racial theory fails.

I agree with you. I am really puzzled by some Chinese members' assumption that Japan would just blindly follow the U.S. disregarding its own national interest. I think they are viewing history from current situations, i.e. judging Japan's motivations and behaviors in the past from current consequences. No one can foresee the future, so no one should judge the past from present.

I also think that China's cooperation with the U.S. on currency pegging issue is mainly motivated from its own judgment that it will benefit China in long run. Whether this judgment will fail or not should not distract from the fact that China's behaviors, similar to Japan's, is acted upon national interest.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

I agree with you. I am really puzzled by some Chinese members' assumption that Japan would just blindly follow the U.S. disregarding its own national interest. I think they are viewing history from current situations, i.e. judging Japan's motivations and behaviors in the past from current consequences. No one can foresee the future, so no one should judge the past from present.

I also think that China's cooperation with the U.S. on currency pegging issue is mainly motivated from its own judgment that it will benefit China in long run. Whether this judgment will fail or not should not distract from the fact that China's behaviors, similar to Japan's, is acted upon national interest.

Thank you, excellent summary. Japan agreed to the Plaza Accord because it was the choice that would benefit it more, just as China agreed to allow the RMB to appreciate, and set in motion plans that will lead to RMB's free-float, because that is what is best for China. The zero-sum mentality of many here means that if in allowing the USD to weaken as a result of China's actions, the US also benefits, that must mean that China cannot reform and allow the RMB to appreciate, after all. The reality is far more synergistic, and allows for both to benefit.

 

[Aepsilons]

I agree with you. I am really puzzled by some Chinese members' assumption that Japan would just blindly follow the U.S. disregarding its own national interest. I think they are viewing history from current situations, i.e. judging Japan's motivations and behaviors in the past from current consequences. No one can foresee the future, so no one should judge the past from present.

I also think that China's cooperation with the U.S. on currency pegging issue is mainly motivated from its own judgment that it will benefit China in long run. Whether this judgment will fail or not should not distract from the fact that China's behaviors, similar to Japan's, is acted upon national interest.

In short, The Japanese signed knowing that if the US started closing the door to Japan through quotas or tariffs, other countries could do so also and Japan would face a major recession or depression since the economy was essentially export driven. But the US didn't want a trade war, and was trying to fix the worsening trade imbalance without setting up hundreds of tariffs against Japanese goods. Their solution was to make Japanese goods more expensive by weakening the value of the dollar versus the yen. And with American goods becoming cheaper, the idea was more Japanese would buy US goods.

That accord turned out to be pretty much a failure for the US, since cheaper imports into Japan only fattened up the bottom lines of the countless redundant middlemen in the wildly complicated Japanese distribution system - in the end, Japanese consumer prices barely budged. Plus, many American companies were completely ignorant of Japanese consumer needs - the failure of selling a significantly higher number of US cars is one example.

The Plaza Accord itself didn't cause the asset price bubble. First came the Plaza Accord and then the BoJ's misguided reaction to it was an easy money policy. It was the latter that caused the bubble, not the Accord. The essence of the Plaza Accord was inevitable sooner or later and the idea that the USA somehow forced it on an unwilling Japan is bogus. The only way forward for Japan at the time was a floating yen and becoming partners in the global financial system. One big factor would be that it was no longer feasible for Japan to be a cheap labour economy by the 1980s, therefore a rising yen would enable Japanese firms to invest overseas and become truly global players. If you look at the Japanese auto plants in North America, that is exactly what happened.

The pre Plaza Accord situation was tolerated as long as the Japanese economy was in a rebuilding mode. Like Shido says, once the Japanese economy "grew up" it was time to play on a even playing field and the Japanese people understood that. The fact that the fallout was handled badly doesn't make the Plaza Accord a bad thing.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

In short, The Japanese signed knowing that if the US started closing the door to Japan through quotas or tariffs, other countries could do so also and Japan would face a major recession or depression since the economy was essentially export driven.

So in essence, they threatened Japan and you folded. Great to know how it worked in the past.

 

[Jlaw]

Sir,

China is an extremely inferior military power when it come to facing the united states---. Neither it has the aircraft, nor the submarines, surface ships etct etc to stand up to the united states.

Well---here is a comparison----a million dollar missile dropped on a 10 dollar hut is in Afghanistan will do a 10 dollar damage----but that same missile dropped on a 10 million dollar factory or similar installation will have a multiplier effect far acceding the cost of the missile.

The only thing china can do is to take on india--and that is all.

All these little games that china is playing---the u s will get them when they want to---just like the Americas got the japaese in the 80's and the 90's----. The Japanese came a swinging in the 80's and buying everything in America---there was a fear created that the japanese will own everything---well the good old American white boys gave them all the rope to hang themselves----the Japanese bought the casinos in vegas and the white boys tore them up---the Japanese left the united states with their tails between their legs and their economy in the japan in shambles---and still have not recovered after 20 years---nobody talks of Japanese owning the u s----.

None can compete with the DEVIOUS planning of the white boys---be it Chinese---japanese---Indians or otherwise---when the americans get you---there will be no place to hide---. Boy do they give you enough rope to hang yourself or what.

US will force China to sign Plaza Accord?

What US complainted is "China keep controlling the exchange rate not let it fluctuate as market trend"

it's call power my viet friend.

 

[Aepsilons]

The Plaza Accord itself didn't cause the asset price bubble. First came the Plaza Accord and then the BoJ's misguided reaction to it was an easy money policy. It was the latter that caused the bubble, not the Accord. The essence of the Plaza Accord was inevitable sooner or later and the idea that the USA somehow forced it on an unwilling Japan is bogus. The only way forward for Japan at the time was a floating yen and becoming partners in the global financial system. One big factor would be that it was no longer feasible for Japan to be a cheap labour economy by the 1980s, therefore a rising yen would enable Japanese firms to invest overseas and become truly global players. If you look at the Japanese auto plants in North America, that is exactly what happened.

 

[applesauce]

Sir,

China is an extremely inferior military power when it come to facing the united states---. Neither it has the aircraft, nor the submarines, surface ships etct etc to stand up to the united states.

Well---here is a comparison----a million dollar missile dropped on a 10 dollar hut is in Afghanistan will do a 10 dollar damage----but that same missile dropped on a 10 million dollar factory or similar installation will have a multiplier effect far acceding the cost of the missile.

The only thing china can do is to take on india--and that is all.

All these little games that china is playing---the u s will get them when they want to---just like the Americas got the japaese in the 80's and the 90's----. The Japanese came a swinging in the 80's and buying everything in America---there was a fear created that the japanese will own everything---well the good old American white boys gave them all the rope to hang themselves----the Japanese bought the casinos in vegas and the white boys tore them up---the Japanese left the united states with their tails between their legs and their economy in the japan in shambles---and still have not recovered after 20 years---nobody talks of Japanese owning the u s----.

None can compete with the DEVIOUS planning of the white boys---be it Chinese---japanese---Indians or otherwise---when the americans get you---there will be no place to hide---. Boy do they give you enough rope to hang yourself or what.

china has no wish at the moment to take on the US in full force, thus accordingly its military is not designed to do that.
however that is not to say china cannot defend against the US, its military force are design to do just that. close to the chinese shore, the US does not have a near guaranteed chance of victory(compared to say, iraq, or north korea barring a chinese intervention), there is no way it could hope to occupied any significant piece of chinese territory for any significant length of time.

what it chooses to do is different from what it could do, the chinese economy as a percentage of US economy is larger than what the soviet union could ever muster even at its height, china could build a 100 052D, it could built 12 carriers, it could assemble 10,000 thermonuclear warheads, but it chooses not to rush and it chooses stability and growth of the economy over military might. this is extremely clear, china is less confrontational than the russians, china's spending on the military is around global average as percentage of GDP using western estimates, therefore it is incorrectly to say that china could not stand up to the US, it can and in fact has in places such as vietnam and korea, in modern times the threat of war is low no need to throw away growth just to butt heads with the US.

and im not sure what you mean by only able to take on india, except for russia and japan, no nation in the area could take on china alone with any chance of success. and even for japan things are not not so clear, the PLAN is roughly on par against the japanese navy, with the odds further tilting towards PLAN with every year. and this is with china not in a arms race mode(as shown by spending as % of GDP)

and funny how you say none can compete against the "white boys", the people's republic has been doing that for decades, successfully becoming the second largest economy in the world with forecasts shown by all that it will be first in a short time.and also funny you bring up the japanese and their stagnation, if chinese GDP per capita is anywhere near what japan had when they started stagnating....well.... china would have a larger gdp than the US and europe...combined. if it did started stagnation at that point...china would still completely and absolutely dominate in world trade, achieving one of the largest % of world GDP ever held by a single country and with that large economy, comes everything else.

 

[MastanKhan]

china has no wish at the moment to take on the US in full force, thus accordingly its military is not designed to do that.
however that is not to say china cannot defend against the US, its military force are design to do just that. close to the chinese shore, the US does not have a near guaranteed chance of victory(compared to say, iraq, or north korea barring a chinese intervention), there is no way it could hope to occupied any significant piece of chinese territory for any significant length of time.

what it chooses to do is different from what it could do, the chinese economy as a percentage of US economy is larger than what the soviet union could ever muster even at its height, china could build a 100 052D, it could built 12 carriers, it could assemble 10,000 thermonuclear warheads, but it chooses not to rush and it chooses stability and growth of the economy over military might. this is extremely clear, china is less confrontational than the russians, china's spending on the military is around global average as percentage of GDP using western estimates, therefore it is incorrectly to say that china could not stand up to the US, it can and in fact has in places such as vietnam and korea, in modern times the threat of war is low no need to throw away growth just to butt heads with the US.

and im not sure what you mean by only able to take on india, except for russia and japan, no nation in the area could take on china alone with any chance of success. and even for japan things are not not so clear, the PLAN is roughly on par against the japanese navy, with the odds further tilting towards PLAN with every year. and this is with china not in a arms race mode(as shown by spending as % of GDP)

and funny how you say none can compete against the "white boys", the people's republic has been doing that for decades, successfully becoming the second largest economy in the world with forecasts shown by all that it will be first in a short time.and also funny you bring up the japanese and their stagnation, if chinese GDP per capita is anywhere near what japan had when they started stagnating....well.... china would have a larger gdp than the US and europe...combined. if it did started stagnation at that point...china would still completely and absolutely dominate in world trade, achieving one of the largest % of world GDP ever held by a single country and with that large economy, comes everything else.

Sir,

Your economy does not mean diddly sh-t---you are at the mercy of the united states---the next nationalistic president comes into power in the u s and starts the slogan be American buy American----you wellbeing will be history.

All this industrial might that you want to talk about is due to the good old white boys----those who shifted businesses from the u s to china----.

Your economy is so large that you have not been able to build a world class engine for a fighter aircraft that could come close to something build by the americans with 50's technology in the 60's.

As for your naval and submarine fleet ---- 6 maybe 3 wolfe class submarines will totally annihilate them without belching.
With 6 wolfe class submarines----your mighty industrial and military complex would be shattered.

What you believe in---that is what your generals and politicians believed before the 1st gulf war started----after 24 hours their shock was beyond belief and within 72 hours of the start of war----they were walking with dazed looks ---shoulders slumped and heads bowed down---when they came across the pictures of the highway of death---the decision was made and sealed----there will be no direct confrontation with the united states military at any cost.

You can build as many carriers---but you have no experience operating them.

Did you know that Pakistani submarine fleet has more experience and battle field experience than whole of your submarine fleet---did you know that Pakistani agosta's maybe more advanced than your Chinese subs that you have of similar class.

Did you know that pakistani F16 blk52 has more advanced technology and weapons than any aircraft in your air force---.

Before the 1st GW and before the afghan invasion---I told my pak colleagues what u s would do---they were just like you----.

 

[applesauce]

Sir,

Your economy does not mean diddly sh-t---you are at the mercy of the united states---the next nationalistic president comes into power in the u s and starts the slogan be American buy American----you wellbeing will be history.

All this industrial might that you want to talk about is due to the good old white boys----those who shifted businesses from the u s to china----.

Your economy is so large that you have not been able to build a world class engine for a fighter aircraft that could come close to something build by the americans with 50's technology in the 60's.

As for your naval and submarine fleet ---- 6 maybe 3 wolfe class submarines will totally annihilate them without belching.
With 6 wolfe class submarines----your mighty industrial and military complex would be shattered.

What you believe in---that is what your generals and politicians believed before the 1st gulf war started----after 24 hours their shock was beyond belief and within 72 hours of the start of war----they were walking with dazed looks ---shoulders slumped and heads bowed down---when they came across the pictures of the highway of death---the decision was made and sealed----there will be no direct confrontation with the united states military at any cost.

You can build as many carriers---but you have no experience operating them.

Did you know that Pakistani submarine fleet has more experience and battle field experience than whole of your submarine fleet---did you know that Pakistani agosta's maybe more advanced than your Chinese subs that you have of similar class.

Did you know that pakistani F16 blk52 has more advanced technology and weapons than any aircraft in your air force---.

Before the 1st GW and before the afghan invasion---I told my pak colleagues what u s would do---they were just like you----.

you clearly haven't taken an economics course or even understand basic economics, trade works both ways, the US buys chinese goods not because they love the chinese or want to help china, its because china can produce said good for a lower price(this includes superior infrastructure that lowers transport costs that other nations can't match), china earns dollars which is then match by an equal amount of RMBs printed by china, the dollars are recycled back into the US given both sides more wealth. there is a reason protectionism didnt work in the past and those reasons are still perfectly good today.

world class engines are not pencils that can be built by any guy with basic tools, the US spent decades and decades and billion upon billions to reach where it is today, china has only really started to study high performance jet engines in the mid 80s its only been 30 years and the first real result, while not on par with the americans, is fairly good, the ws-10, if needed, is perfectly capable of powering j-10s and j-11/15/16 if needed, and the ws-15 the first real ultra high performance engines used by 5th gen jets is coming along nicely.

the decision to not confront the US in the way russians have was not made during the gulf war, it was made decades before that, when the US and china got together to balance against the soviet threat, what the gulf war did do is show just how advanced the americans where, it may have enforce the none-directly-confrontation policy, but it certainly didn't start it. in addition china in 2014 is no iraq.

so youre claiming the Pakistani navy is stronger than PLAN?...okay i have absolutely nothing to said against that, others can make up their own minds.

right so f-16s are now superior to true 5th gens okay, again i got nothing to say against that, others can make up their own minds.

before the 1st GW..... like me? funny because i had no doubts the US would walk all over iraq. the wars iraq fought against iran shown how incompetent their army was, worst yet they didnt learn from their mistakes.

 

[Developereo]

America can keep the title of "global policeman" or global leader/hegemon as long as they want, and let them continue to spend trillions for it. Chinese economic and military power serves the interests of China above all else. We have enough power to defend our sovereignty, and that is what matters in the end.

I accept your point that, at least for now, China doesn't want to be a superpower and its first priority is to raise the standard of living for the average Chinese citizen.

I was making the point about what it takes to challenge American dominance. Neither China nor Russia has the capability to enforce their own Monroe Doctrine.

The difference between a reigning superpower and others is that the superpower can take the fight to the other guys' doorstep, and not the other way round.

 

[BoQ77]

You told us the Truth.

Sir,

Your economy does not mean diddly sh-t---you are at the mercy of the united states---the next nationalistic president comes into power in the u s and starts the slogan be American buy American----you wellbeing will be history.

All this industrial might that you want to talk about is due to the good old white boys----those who shifted businesses from the u s to china----.

Your economy is so large that you have not been able to build a world class engine for a fighter aircraft that could come close to something build by the americans with 50's technology in the 60's.

As for your naval and submarine fleet ---- 6 maybe 3 wolfe class submarines will totally annihilate them without belching.
With 6 wolfe class submarines----your mighty industrial and military complex would be shattered.

What you believe in---that is what your generals and politicians believed before the 1st gulf war started----after 24 hours their shock was beyond belief and within 72 hours of the start of war----they were walking with dazed looks ---shoulders slumped and heads bowed down---when they came across the pictures of the highway of death---the decision was made and sealed----there will be no direct confrontation with the united states military at any cost.

You can build as many carriers---but you have no experience operating them.

Did you know that Pakistani submarine fleet has more experience and battle field experience than whole of your submarine fleet---did you know that Pakistani agosta's maybe more advanced than your Chinese subs that you have of similar class.

Did you know that pakistani F16 blk52 has more advanced technology and weapons than any aircraft in your air force---.

Before the 1st GW and before the afghan invasion---I told my pak colleagues what u s would do---they were just like you----.