The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[grey boy 2]

Updates

 

[Viet]

Beautiful pictures, more beautiful than those posted in mid autumn festival. Thanks for sharing. I wonder what islands from what enemy Chinese and Russian forces want to seize?

But honestly I am a bit disappointed. Had expected to see more: launch of cruise and ballistic missiles, endless of tanks and warships, bombers unloading tons of bombs on perceived enemy troops. At the end, Chinese girls hug Russian liberators. Xi Jinping and comrade Putin cry because of luck.

 

[grey boy 2]

Updates

 

[grey boy 2]

Updates

 

[grey boy 2]

 

[grey boy 2]

 

[yusheng]

on September 14th, the Russian Navy Corps mixed with Chinese Navy on reefs defense and attack drill site pictures:

 

[yusheng]

on September 16th, Russia jointed 2016 military exercises in airspace of Zhanjiang held a joint maritime search and rescue, maneuvering, joint boarding and inspection, joint coverup, anchorage defense drills

site pictures:

 

[yusheng]

 

[yusheng]

Tuesday's exercise featured a light weapons shooting competition, sea crossing, island landing, climbing and gliding.

The joint drill demonstrates the shared security concerns of both China and Russia, Chen Hu, a military expert, told Xinhua. The joint exercise helps improve the capability of the two navies to address maritime security threats, and safeguard regional security and stability.

"One of the joint exercise highlights is coordinated three-dimensional island seizing," Chen said.

Zhang Junshe, senior research fellow of the Military and Academic Institute of the Chinese Navy, said the navies would perform operations in a number of areas, including air defense, anti-submarine, anti-vessel, and landings.

http://eng.mod.gov.cn/DefenseNews/2016-09/13/content_4730051.htm

 

[simple Brain]

Report China Acquires Vicious 1,553MPH Su-35 Multirole Fighter Jets From Russia.
The first four Su-35 fighter jets from a 24 aircraft arms deal between the two allies are to be delivered before the end of the year according to a statement by the Komsomolsk-on-Amur aviation plant. This week the governor of Khabarovsk Krai, a federal area located in the Russian Far East, said in a statement during the opening of a new aircraft production plant that China will receive the first four Russian-made Sukhoi Su-35 multirole fighter jets in consideration of a 24 aircraft deal between Moscow and Beijing signed in November of 2015. © AFP 2016/ SABAH ARAR Russian MoD Confirms US-Led Coalition's F-16, A-10 Jets Attacked Syrian Army From 2016 to 2018, the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Production plant will build and deliver a total of 24 Su-35 combat jets to China, the governor said according to RIA news agency as part of the agreement first forged between the parties in late 2015. The Diplomat explains that the "the Su-35 is a Fourth++ generation, twin-engine, highly maneuverable multirole fighter jet powered by two AL-117S turbofan engines.
The Russian aircraft’s powerful turbofan engine is also the most likely reason why China is interested in acquiring Su-35 fighters." The fighter jet has a maximum speed of 1,553 MPH (2500kmh) with advanced dry thrust and afterburner capabilities that enhance the aircraft’s dogfight maneuverability and semi-stealth design that makes it possibly the most lethal fighter jet in the sky. The Su-35 is Russia’s top air-superiority fighter, until the fifth-generation PAK-FA stealth fighter comes into production, with a clear maneuverability edge over existing fighter jets and a limited radar cross section after adjustments were made to the engine inlets and canopy as well as a series of modifications including the use of “radar-absorbent material” that gives the flanker a stealth-like profile. © AFP 2016/ GEORGE OURFALIAN Damascus Accuses US-Led Coalition of Bombing Syrian Army in Deir Ez-Zor The fighter jet comes armed with K-77M radar-guided missiles with a range of over 120 miles (193km) providing pilots with standoff capabilities ensuring pilot protection, an R-74 infrared-guided missiles that allow for targeting by a pilot using a helmet-mounted optical sight, and a thirty-millimeter cannon with 150 rounds for dogfight battles. The acquisition of the Su-35 by the Chinese is a major boon for the country’s defense as well as its avionics industry. China has worked to produce its own turbofan akin to the Su-35’s, known as the WS-10 turbofan, but it continues to underperform the Russian-made AL-117S. If China is able to reverse engineer the technology they may be able to rapidly overcome their avionics gap with the West.

Read more: https://sputniknews.com/military/20160917/1045416113/china-fighter-jet-russia-su35.html

 

[enquencher]

What a idiotic title twist given in op.

 

[ahojunk]

This is an opinion piece.
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Belt and Road Initiative beneficial to all
2016-09-14 10:02:04 CRIENGLISH.com Web Editor: Liang Tao

By Liang Tao

The now-concluded G20 Leaders Summit in Hangzhou has concentrated at four core concepts: Innovation, Invigoration, Interconnectivity and Inclusiveness, which have been dubbed the "4 I's." The last two are the essence of plans to enhance global economic revitalization and recovery. UN chief Ban Ki-moon has also highlighted sustainable growth as a key factor in the communiqué released from the Summit, the first in G20 history. In it, he suggests sustainable growth can be understood as a continuing development model. A path toward interconnectivity, inclusiveness and sustainable growth are also a new standard being offered in China's Belt and Road Initiative.

This means the "Belt and Road" strategy can't merely attempt to blindly copy either China's economic growth pattern or an industrial upgrade model used in other countries. Instead, "Belt and Road" needs to establish a tailor-made development path to cope with the diversified needs in countries where the local environment, social and cultural customs, as well as the level of economic development, need to be taken into account. This is the direction the "Belt and Road" plan should be heading toward.

The Belt and Road Initiative, first put forward by President Xi Jinping during his state visit to Kazakhstan in 2013, is a blueprint for building a trade and infrastructure network connecting Asia with Europe and Africa along ancient trade routes. Since its first suggestion three years ago, the blueprint has been detailed, and achievements have already gone far beyond expectations. The "Belt and Road" plan is now in common use in world politics and global economics.

"Belt and Road" has also been widely supported by the international community. More than 100 countries and international organizations are already participating in the initiative. China has signed cooperation agreements with more than 30 countries along the routes, and has launched international industrial capacity cooperation with more than 20 others. In 2015, bilateral trade among China and participating countries surpassed one trillion US dollars.

As an open and inclusive regional growth-oriented proposal, the "Belt and Road" project has a goal of using the advantages individual countries possess to expand economic links, while also serving to explore new economic growth areas. Its launch comes at a time when the developing and developed worlds both face challenges in trying to overcome a tendency during tough economic times to turn toward protectionism. In order to bolster the initiative, China has played a leading role in establishing the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Silk Road Fund. This is an example of China turning words into action.

By providing financing to the developing world, China is keen to spur infrastructure development, particularly at a time when securing funds for projects has proven difficult from Western-dominated organizations. This is a testament to China's global insight, as well as the government's long-term goal of creating a global society that works together. Steps such as capital infusions to the IMF, actively joining in UN peacekeeping missions and taking a lead on climate change are among the steps which show China wants to be a global leader.

Last but not least, win-win cooperation and benefit sharing need to be the linchpin which holds the "Belt and Road" strategy together. For China, in the short term, countries which participate are going to gain immediate benefits. But beyond this, "Belt and Road" is also going to help cement closer ties with China, as well as set an example for others to join in the win-win strategy.

In the long run, in addition to bringing a more pragmatic approach to China's foreign policy, as well as creating economic benefits for the 4.4 billion people who live in the "Belt and Road" region, the initiative should also help China open itself up more to the outside world through regional integration.

In the end, it just makes sense for the regional community and the businesses that work within it to become involved with the Belt and Road Initiative.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Why Russia And China Are Intent On Salvaging Syria’s Economy

September 16, 2016

An economy in ruins

More than five years of armed conflict has had a catastrophic impact on the Syrian economy. National GDP has plummeted to less than 50 percent of pre-conflict output, and according to recent figures, the total economic loss to date amounts to 275 billion USD – around five times the country’s 2010 GDP. As violence continues in several parts of the country, especially in the pre-conflict commercial powerhouse of Aleppo, Syria’s economic downfall can be expected to continue.

The extreme damage to the economy is due to a combination of a 25 percent drop in overall population, the displacement of half of all Syrians, a steep drop in economic activity, capital flight, massive destruction of infrastructure and productive capacity, as well as the loss of 25 million school years for Syria’s children, which will reduce labour productivity for the coming generation. Furthermore, large segments of the Syrian business elite that initially remained confident in the future of the country have lost faith and divested their assets and relocated to neighbouring countries.

Such an economic impact is not only affecting the Syrian population at present, but will be felt for decades, if not generations. If the war ended this year, it would take 10-15 years before Syria’s per capita GDP would return to pre-conflict levels. And as the violence is expected to continue well into the future, total long-term economic costs could reach up to 1 trillion USD – nearly 20 times the 2010 GDP. One vital economic sector that has been hit extremely hard is the agricultural sector. Fighting has destroyed irrigation systems and other infrastructure, depleted water supplies, ruined soil conditions, obstructed trade and caused massive displacement of the farming population. This came on top of Syria suffering yet another drought with cumulative rainfall in 2013-14 being less than half of the long-term average. As a result, Syria’s wheat production has dropped 30 percent compared to pre-conflict levels and made the country highly dependent on cereal imports to mitigate growing food insecurity.

There is however some positive news for Syria’s agricultural sector. Among them is a programme recently adopted by newly-appointed Prime Minister Imad Khamis’ government prudently designed to support the agricultural production. This includes government donations for home agriculture and measures to facilitate domestic food production in addition to potential micro-loans for rural women to further revive the sector and catalyse local growth.

Another extremely important sector for the Syrian economy is that of hydrocarbons. In 2011 Syria’s oil production stood at 400,000 barrels per day but due to heavy fighting over territorial control with oil fields this has now dropped to a daily production of only 15,000-25,000 barrels, with a substantial part extracted and sold by various armed non-state groups. The Syrian army and its allies are, however, currently seeking to regain full control of the country’s hydrocarbon resources and the associated infrastructure, especially in central Syria.

In eastern Hama governorate, pro-government forces backed by Russian airstrikes in late July took control over parts of a key oil pipeline east of Salamiyah. North-east of Palmyra in Homs governorate, fighting is taking place around the gas facilities of Arak while airstrikes regularly target the IS-held oil town of Sukhna.

At the Mahr and Jazal oil fields and Shaer gas fields north-west of Palmyra, pro-government ground forces backed by airstrikes are additionally fighting off IS militants in order to increase the daily production. While these efforts will likely only have a minor short-term economic impact, they could prove crucial in the long-term goal of restarting the country’s oil production and benefiting the overall Syrian economy.

Syria’s hotspot in the struggle for control of hydrocarbon sites​

A helping hand

Since the Russian military intervention in September 2015, the battle fortunes of Bashar al-Assad’s government have seen a significant reversal. This has brought relative stability to many government-controlled parts of the country and has also allowed for initial steps of economic reconstruction, a process in which Assad’s foreign allies Russia and China are set to play a key role.

The economic cooperation between Syria and Russia stretches back decades and several Russian corporations have contracts in Syria from before the conflict. According to the Moscow Times these were already worth around 20 billion USD in 2011, and it is a number certain to rise in the future.

Several recent high-level visits to Moscow by the Syrian president himself, his minister of foreign affairs and other government officials have, for example, involved discussions about Russian companies including Gazprom, Soyuzneftegaz, Lukoil and Zarubezhneft getting further involved in Syria’s oil production.

Arms exports have also been a key Russian business interest closely tied to the Syrian government. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russian arms sales to Syria totalled 4.7 billion USD from 2007-2010. The Moscow Times estimated active bilateral arms contracts at 4 billion USD in 2011 alone, including MiG-29 fighter jets, Pantsir surface-to-air missiles, tanks, artillery systems and anti-tank weapons.

Russia has also played a key role in Syria’s monetary system. Since 2012, Russia has been printing Syrian pounds and flying them to Syria to allow the government to pay public sector salaries in spite of rapidly declining reserves. Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin has channeled billions of dollars to the Syrian government to prevent a financial collapse.

Eager to cash-in on its massive support for the Assad government, Russia will likely not only seek to replenish the Syrian army’s weapons stockpiles after the conflict, but also seek to ensure a favourable position come the time of distribution of reconstruction contracts in several sectors.

In addition to Russia, China will likely also play a key role in Syria’s post-conflict economic recovery. Although Chinese oil workers were pulled out of Syria in 2013 due to escalating violence, the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation still holds shares in two of Syria’s largest oil producers: The Syrian Petroleum Company and Al-Furat Petroleum Company, while Sinochem also holds substantial shares in various Syrian oil fields.

China’s role in Syria’s economic recovery will, however, not be limited to the oil sector. In December, China offered Syria 6 billion USD worth of investments in addition to 10 billion USD worth of existing contracts, as well as a significant deal signed between the Syrian government and Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei to rebuild Syria’s telecom infrastructure as part of China’s 900 billion USD ‘Silk Road’ infrastructure initiative.

China has also been a major exporter of weapons systems to the Syrian government. In the 1990s China was selling Syria ballistic missiles technology and from 2006-2010 the People’s Republic was Syria’s fifth-largest provider of conventional weapons. Chinese exporters have also been linked to Syria’s chemical weapons programmes. In terms of overall trade, in 2010 China was the largest source of imports to Syria.

Aiming to defend these economic interests, Chinese officials recently announced plans to increase humanitarian support for the Syrian people as well as military support for the Syrian government in the fight against terrorism. In mid-August the Director of the Office for International Military Cooperation of China’s Central Military Commission, Guan Youfei, arrived in Damascus and pledged to expand Chinese military support for the Syrian government, likely including both training and military hardware deliveries.

Backed by military commitments to President Assad’s rule, Russia and China have doubled down on their existing business interests in Syria and thus further positioned themselves to play a key role in the future recovery of several sectors in the devastated Syrian economy.


Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-russia-china-intent-salvaging-190000702.html

 

[Shotgunner51]

What is Eurasianism?

Published on September 18th, 2016
by Graham E. Fuller

Photo: Meeting of Eurasian Economic Council.
​

You might recall the term “Eurasia” from high school geography classes. The term isn’t used much any more in political discussions in the West, but it should be. That is where the most serious geopolitical action is going to be taking place in the world as we move deeper into the 21st century. The US, focused so intently on “containment” of Russia, ISIS, and China will be missing the bigger Eurasian strategic picture.

Eurasia is the greatest landmass of the world, embracing Europe and all of Asia—some of the oldest and greatest centers of human civilization.

So what is Eurasianism? It has meant different things at different periods. A century ago, the Kissingers of the time spun theories about a deep and inevitable strategic clash between sea-borne power (UK/US) and continental/land-based powers (Germany, Russia.) “Eurasia” then meant mostly Europe and western Russia. Indeed, what need was there to talk then about Asia itself, most of Asia was underdeveloped and lay under the control of the British Empire (India) or the French (Indo-China) and had no independent will. Japan was the only real “Asian power”—that ironically developed its own imperial designs, and thus came to clash with American imperial power in the Pacific.

Today of course all that is different. Eurasia increasingly means “Asia” in which the “Euro” part figures modestly. Furthermore, China has now become the center of Eurasia as the world’s largest economy. Not surprisingly, China (like the Muslim world) projects a decidedly “anti-imperial” bent based on what it sees as its humiliation at the hands of the West and Japan during its two-hundred year eclipse—during one of its dynastic down-cycles. But China is very much back now into a classic “up-cycle” mode of power and influence again and is determined to project its weight and influence. India too now is now a rapidly developing power with regional reach. And Japan, while quiescent, still represents formidable economic power, perhaps to be augmented by greater military regional reach.

The significance of the term “Eurasian” has changed a good deal, but it still suggests strategic rivalry. At a time when the US formally declares its intent to militarily dominate the world (“full spectrum dominance” was the official Pentagon doctrine in 2000) the concept of Eurasianism is responding with vigor. And not just in China, but in its new significance for countries like Russia, Iran, even Turkey. It suggests a sense of the eclipse of dominant western power in the face of new Asian power.

It’s not all just about military and money. It’s also cultural. Russian culture has for two centuries maintained a lively debate about whether Russia belongs to the West, or embodies a distinctly Eurasian (yevraziiskaya) culture that is separate from the West. Eurasianists represent a significant force within Russian strategic and military thinking (although Putin, interestingly, does not fully embrace this world-view.)

The idea is a vague but culturally important one; it grapples with Russian identity. It speaks of a Slavic culture but with deep Eurasian roots even in an old Turkic and Tatar past. Remember that historically it is the modern West that torched Russia twice: witness the invasions of Napoleon and Hitler up to the gates of Moscow. Nato today probes ever more deeply all around the Russian periphery. The Eurasianists are suspicious of, if not hostile to, the West as a permanent threat to “Holy Mother Russia.” “Eurasianism” will always lurk just beneath the surface in the Russian strategic world-view.

That is what Russia’s new Eurasian Economic Union is all about, a goal to at least economically unite Belarus, the Central Asian states and others into a greater Eurasian economic whole. (Oil-rich Kazakstan was actually the author of the concept; it will seek to maintain ties with the West; but look at it its place on a world map to see where Kazakstan’s real long-term options lie. Russia may not now be the best economic star to tie one’s future to, but it is just one of many Eurasian vehicles out there and they are not mutually exclusive. Options bring greater security.

China is moving in stunningly ambitious directions in creating the new Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (that 57 states have signed onto including most European states, Canada and Australia—but conspicuously without Japan so far, or the US.) This creates a new Eurasian-focused central banking instrument with strong Chinese influence. China is also projecting massive new transportation networks (the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road —“One Belt One Road”) across Eurasia to China linking China to Europe, the Middle East, Central and South Asia, and the Far East by rail, road, and sea. China’s “Eurasian strategy” is already a burgeoning reality. Yes, suspicions and rivalries exist between Russia and China and India and Japan. But the strong economic and developmental thrust of these proposals differ markedly from the American more “security” focused organization with its worrisome military implications.

Not only has Washington fought these Chinese and Eurasian initiatives unsuccessfully, but it is US policies in particular—that identify both Russia and China as the presumptive enemy—that have helped bring Russia and China together on many issues, linked now by shared distrust of US global military ambitions.

Japan, incidentally, before World War II had its own doctrine of “Eurasianism” —an effort to identify with and stir up Asian peoples and territories against western colonial domination; this strategy could have been quite effective had it not been accompanied by Japan’s own brutal military invasions of East Asian countries, destroying the credibility of the Japanese “Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere”. Today Japan hasn’t moved its location; it will still have to deal with the reality of Chinese power in the East. And what Japanese leader would seriously pursue a long range policy of hostility to China in support of a US Pacific strategy that is inherently designed to bottle up China? Especially when China and Japan are huge mutual trading and investment partners?

Iran is keenly interested in balancing against geopolitical pressures from the US and seeks membership in these Russian and Chinese economic development institutions. Iran is a natural “Eurasian “ and “Silk Road” power.

Turkey has gotten into the Eurasian game, again. Going back to the early days of Erdogan’s AK Party foreign policy— in the vision of then foreign minister Davutoglu—Turkey was no longer limited to being a western power, but also proclaimed its geopolitical interests (nearly a hundred years after the fall of the Ottoman Empire) in the Middle East, and indeed, Eurasia. (After all, the Turks originally come from Eurasia, having migrated west from Lake Baikal a thousand years ago.) That means serious ties with Russia, combined with deep ethnic, cultural and historical ties with Central Asia, and with China. Turkey (like Iran and Pakistan) seeks to be part of these Russian and Chinese networks. And, among some Turkish nationalist politicians and military officers (including many secular Kemalists) there is strong “Eurasianist” leaning to expand Turkey’s geopolitical options to explore strategic and cultural ties with Eurasia. It also reflects an expression of distrust of western and US efforts to dominate the region.

For Turkey this is not an either/or issue. It can seek to be part of Europe (including Nato) but will not relinquish the broad geostrategic alternative options to the East, with its ever greater economic clout, and roads and rails to link it.

In short, the new Eurasianism is no longer about nineteenth century land and sea power. It is an acknowledgment that the era of western (and especially US) global dominance is over. Washington can no longer command (or afford) a longer-term bid to dominate Eurasia. In economic terms no state in the region, including Turkey, would be foolish enough to turn its back on this rising “Eurasian” potential that also offers strategic balance and economic options.

There are, of course, huge fault-lines across Eurasia—ethnic, economic, strategic, and some degree of rivalry. But the more Washington attempts to contain or throttle Eurasianism as a genuine rising force, the greater will be the determination of states to become part of this rising Eurasian world, even while not rejecting the West.

All countries like to have alternatives. They don’t like to lie beholden to a single global power that tries to call the shots. America’s narrative of what the global order is all about is no longer accepted globally. Furthermore it is no longer realistic. It would seem short-sighted for Washington to continue focus upon expanding military alliances while most of the rest of the world is looking to greater prosperity and rising regional clout. (China’s military expenditures are about one quarter of US spending.)



Graham E. Fuller is a former senior CIA official, author of numerous books on the Muslim World; his latest book is “Breaking Faith: A novel of espionage and an American’s crisis of conscience in Pakistan.” (Amazon, Kindle).

Source: http://lobelog.com/what-is-eurasianism/