The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[LowPost]

Putin has a massive plate of foreign policy headaches. Putin is at loggerheads with Georgia, Ukraine, European Union, United States, Canada, Australia, Turkey, and Japan (with the building of Russian military bases in the Kurils).

Before coming to that conclusion you need to ask yourself the question why NATO, a product of the Cold War, still exists in the first place despite the breakup of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact. Russia has proven that it is willing to respectfully cooperate with the US-led West, such as in containing nuclear proliferation and counterterrorism efforts in Central Asia. Unfortunately, we have yet to see the West return the favour:

• pledge to not expand eastward after German reunification is broken
• crippling Serbia, a traditional Russian ally under the false pretext of genocide during the Yugoslav Wars
  
• encouraging ill will against Russia in the former Soviet states
• giving the go ahead for Georgia to attack South Ossetia
• unilateral withdrawal of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002
• financial and moral backing for colour revolutions in former Soviet countries to expand America's sphere of influence and to win more military allies
• pushing a Russophobic agenda politically
• Jackson-Vanik amendment
• blocking of Russia's WTO entry

Well, we see a continued vilification of Russia in Western MSM and Putin is challenged by an increasingly assertive NATO. China is in a similar situation, so it is merely natural for both Moscow and Beijing to end the historical issues for good and to work together. But even without these aggressions by the US-led West we would see Russia and China treat each other like partners. @vostok also said once that a war between China and Russia is less likely than a conflict between Canada and the US.

So Pakistan is a liability to China. Is China feeding us? Has China fought our wars? Does China need to step in to stop aggression against Pakistan? No. We are very much capable of all that and have been doing so... On the other hand Pakistan has resisted and failed encirclement of China in the early days, it helped bring US close to you when USSR turned against you and now is again helping you circumvent hostile countries with CPEC. Liability my foot.

I pray for China's sake that neocon wanna be like you are not representative of Chinese thinking in general.

Bear in mind that he is in fact German American, not Chinese.


Also, shout out to @Lure's contributions for providing us an insight on Turkey's turbulent history in domestic politics.

Russia unfairly excludes Chinese companies from huge Russian infrastructure projects

Japan and Germany are major suppliers of the multi-billion dollar Russian South Stream gas pipeline. Chinese companies were not allowed to bid.

Japan's Sumitomo is a major contractor in the Russian Gazprom South Stream gas pipeline across the Black Sea. Japan's "Marubeni-Itochu and Sumitomo" have a 40% work-share of the Gazprom South Stream gas pipeline.

Let Russia implore Japan and Germany to join its economic sanctions against Turkey. Chinese companies are unfairly excluded from Russian government procurement. The Russians stand alone. China should not join in any Russian sanctions against a third country. China simply does not have a stake. The Russians should ask Japan's Sumitomo and the Japanese government for help.
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"It ordered pipes from as far afield as Japan and Germany for the 2,400-kilometre (1,491-mile) South Stream pipeline..."

Turkey row leaves Russia stuck with abandoned gas pipes worth billions| Reuters

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China is excluded from the massive Russian gas pipeline project! China is not allowed to bid.

"Eleven groups bid on the project, with companies from Austria, Belgium, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia and Sweden vying for the contract."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/01/b...line-project-in-bulgaria-is-delayed.html?_r=0

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Japan's "Marubeni-Itochu and Sumitomo" have a 40% work-share of the Gazprom South Stream gas pipeline.

http://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2014/march/article186355/

There might be conflicting interests between the two nations but it is premature to argue that this is an indication that Putin is trying to double-cross China.

Turkey is part of China's railway transport network to Europe. Russia is not.

For 25 years, the Russians have always said "nyet" to China's proposals to build a railway transport route to Europe.

Instead, China has now formed a railway transport system to Europe via Central Asian states and Turkey.

In my opinion, Turkey is arguably a better business partner for China than Russia. The Russians have said "nyet" too many times. China should keep working with other countries, including Turkey.
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Agenda.ge - Cargo from China to Europe will pass through Georgia, bypassing Russia

"Turkey and China together with Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia have formed a syndicate to transport cargo from China to Europe, bypassing Russia.

Representatives of large transport logistic operators from Turkey, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Lithuania signed a deal cementing the multi-national partnership on November 28, 2015 in Turkey, Istanbul."

It is true that China-Russia ties in commerce pales in comparison to business between China and the US, for instance, but it is very likely that we will see closer economic cooperation a, not just because of the anti-Russian sanctions.

The reality is that Putin and his fellow Russian citizens are in a deep recession with no end in sight. Part of the blame is due to Russia's difficult foreign policy problems.

You cannot just look at the positive aspects of Russian foreign policy. You must also look at the cost. The cost is that Putin and all Russians face a difficult and uncertain economic future.

China has virtually unlimited amounts of money. In sharp contrast, Russia is about to go broke. Tell me again which country has the better foreign policy.
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Russia's Putin Tightens Belt for Another Year With 10% Pay Cut | News | The Moscow Times

There are plenty of alternative partners for Russia and we have heard many stories in the past about the assumption that Russia's economy is bound to collapse. Those who believed in these were disappointed. Sanctions and the low oil prices are taking a toll but Moscow is doing a good job in handling the difficulties.

https://www.rt.com/business/322526-russia-apec-economy-investment/

Economics sanctions is a form of war waged by one country against another. The technical term is "economic warfare."

Russia wants Turkey's inexpensive food imports. Turkey controls access from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. Turkey is a country of 80 million consumers. Russia has only suspended (but not canceled) talks on the South Stream gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey to Europe.

It is puzzling to me that there seems to be strong support among some Chinese for Russia.

I am neither pro- or anti-Russia. Similarly, I am neither pro- or anti-Turkey. I am simply objective.

An impassioned analysis shows that there had been no bridge connecting China to Russia for 25 years (since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989). I think a railway bridge between China and Russia is being built or recently inaugurated. Nevertheless, there is still no bridge for cars or trucks.

Furthermore, there is no oil or gas pipeline from Russia to China. However, there is plenty of Russia oil and gas pipelines to Europe and Turkey. For 25 years, the Russians decided they would only sell their oil and gas to Europeans and Turks. China has to pay more for oil transported by rail cars.

Additionally, Russia was willing to give the Turks an 8% discount on gas sent to Turkey. In contrast, Iran played hardball with China and refused a 1.5% requested discount over a 30 year high-volume purchase. It is reasonable to assume that China requested an identical 1.5% discount from Russia. This was also refused by the Russians.

For the last 25 years, the Russians have given preferential trade privileges to Europeans and Turks. The Russians have played hardball with China.

China's economic allies are Turkmenistan, which currently supplies China with 30 bcm (ie. billion cubic meters) of gas via pipeline that is set to increase to 60 bcm in the next 3 years. Also, Kazakhstan is a reliable supplier of oil via pipeline. China has long-term contracts with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

In my view, China should use its political power on behalf of Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan. The Russians are only being nice to China temporarily, because the Russians currently have disputes with all of its preferential trade partners. The Russians had been putting the economic screws to China for 25 years. They are hardly China's ally. Once the disputes are settled, the Russians will go back to favoring European and Turkish business partners.

For example, the steel gas pipelines for South Stream have already been built. The contractors were Germans and Japanese. None were Chinese. The Russians have excluded Chinese contractors from large Russian projects.

Prior to the latest Russia-West crisis, not a single Chinese oil contractor had been invited to participate in Arctic oil drilling. All were western companies. Once again, Chinese companies were excluded by the Russians.

The Russians were very insistent on building pipelines to the Pacific Ocean. Russian oil and gas were to be sold on the world market. It is only the recent glut of oil supply and the rift with the West and Japan (because Japan joined Western sanctions against Russia) that Russia agreed to an oil and gas pipeline to China. The original Russian plan was to bypass China.

The Russian geopolitical strategy is pretty clear. Do everything possible to keep China weak. The Russians need China temporarily. However, the Russians have no intention of being China's long-term partner. It is unwise for China to throw its weight forcefully behind Russia.

The better plan is to continue the long-term Chinese foreign policy. China remains neutral.

I find it interesting that you are using 'the Russians', so to me you seem to imply that the Kremlin consists of Sinophobes in disguise. To my mind it would be viable for Russia to adopt an anti-China policy IF it had the full backing of NATO, America's MNNAs and other states that are at odds with China. But I only see this happening if pro-West puppets were to take over the Kremlin after a colour revolution which has become highly improbable since the NGO law was enacted. The puppeteers of these pro-West politicians would be the hawks in Washington, London or another NATO member, the same forces that want both Russia and China to bend their knees. Putin knows their intentions very well and he has more often than not faced them.

Putin is a very pragmatic leader who enjoys a very high level of popularity, thus I am sure that his successor will likely follow his footsteps and it is impossible for pro-West liberals to win the people's hearts, contrary to the narrative in Western MSM. And no, it is not because the average Russian is brainwashed to worship Putin. Backstabbing China would indeed harm both nations but given the current geopolitical state of affairs Russia would commit suicide, hence it would pay a much higher price than China so it is ridiculously daft for the Kremlin to do so right now and in the foreseenable future. And here's a rule of thumb for you:

Pragmatic Russians see China as a strong and reliable partner.
Pragmatic Chinese see Russia as a strong and reliable partner.

Yes, Putin and Xi fall in their individual category. A possible motive for an anti-China stance on the part of Russia may be explained by the uneasy history between China and Russia in the end, pragmatism prevails over nationalism and blind grudges.

 

[Martian2]

With the collapse of commodity prices, everyone around the world wants to know how to industrialize. Brazil just fell into junk bond status. India is one notch above junk. S&P downgraded Russian debt to junk in January 2015.

In contrast, China's credit rating is AA-.

How do other countries industrialize and prosper like China? They keep studying China's policy reforms. They don't understand that is not sufficient. Regardless of the world's most friendly investment climate, you need someone to show up and take advantage of your policies and build your country into an industrial & technological power.

China intelligently welcomed foreign investors in 1978 when it opened up its economy. However, the real key was the Taiwanese that started flooding in with their money, intended-product-lines, clients, and technology. Taiwanese were comfortable in China, because they spoke the same language and shared the same culture.

Taiwanese have shown no inclination to move in large numbers into other countries. Other countries set up special economic zones, but the Taiwanese are worried that their investment may be seized at any time or due to a newly elected nationalist president. Hence, Taiwanese are only comfortable investing in mainland China.

The Taiwanese are important, because they are the risk-takers. They took a gamble in China. After the Taiwanese grew into a large presence in China, the South Koreans moved in to take advantage of the lower costs and Taiwan-trained skilled labor. After the South Koreans, the Japanese moved in due to similar competitive pressure. Next came the Europeans. Finally, the Americans.

Without the Taiwanese to kick off the process and transfer a lot of technology, there is no way a country can industrialize within our lifetime.
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Crisis in Emerging Markets: Is China’s Model Better Than Russia’s? - Institute of Modern Russia

 

[TaiShang]

China, Russia sign missile-defense deal
December 17, 2015

China and Russia have signed an agreement on the sale of Russia's S-400 surface-to-air missile system, a senior manager of Russia's leading technology corporation said on Wednesday.

In addition, Russia is planning to use China's spacecraft equipment, Dmitriy Shugaev, deputy CEO in charge of international affairs at Rostec, a State-owned company in charge of Russia's arms exports, told China Daily.

He said that the S-400 deal "is important to both Russia and China" and China will be the first foreign user of the missile system, but he declined to reveal the deal's details, saying they "are too sensitive to be revealed".

According to Russian media reports, the S-400 is a new-generation air defense system capable of engaging any aerial target, including airplanes, helicopters, drones and cruise and tactical ballistic missiles. The system's 40N6 missile can destroy airborne targets up to 400 km away.

China clinched the deal in September last year, at a cost of more than $3 billion for the delivery of an unknown number of S-400s, Moscow Times reported.

Currently, China relies on its domestically developed HQ-9 and the Russian-made S-300 missile systems for mid- and long-range air defense.

Wu Peixin, a military observer in Beijing, said that as one of the world's best anti-aircraft weapons systems, the S-400 will give the People's Liberation Army a big boost to its long-range, high-altitude air defense network.

"The system has several types of missiles that are capable of intercepting cruise missiles and tactical ballistic missiles, which means it is suitable to be deployed around important governmental or military sites to safeguard those vital places," he said.

Vasily Kashin, a senior analyst at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told Russia's Sputnik news agency that the long range of the S-400 will allow the PLA to engage targets over the East China Sea. "These missiles are capable of shooting down targets in the Diaoyu Islands airspace from the Chinese mainland."

Shugaev, the Rostec deputy CEO, said Russia is in negotiations with China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp on the procurement of China-developed spacecraft instruments such as electronic and satellite communications devices.

Spokesmen for the two Chinese companies could not be reached for comment.

 

[beijingwalker]

Russia China Could Sign Contract on Joint Heavy Helicopterby Mid-2016


16:19 16.12.2015(updated 16:31 16.12.2015) Get short URL
025140
Rostec deputy CEO on international affairs said that Russia’s state technologies corporation and China's Avicopter expect to sign a general contract and an intergovernmental agreement on the joint development of a heavy-lift helicopter by mid-2016.


BEIJING (Sputnik) – Russia’s state technologies corporation Rostec and China's Avicopter expect to sign a general contract and an intergovernmental agreement on the joint development of a heavy-lift helicopter by mid-2016, the Rostec deputy CEO on international affairs said Wednesday.


"We can say that both sides have aspirations to reach the signing of the contractual obligations and the intergovernmental agreement by the middle of next year. These are normal terms for such an amount of work," Dmitriy Shugaev said.

According to Shugaev, the contract would not be signed by the end of 2015, as previously expected.

According to Head of Rostec Beijing office Alexey Grishin, the parties came to the conclusion that it would be efficient "to sign subcontracts for the development of the main systems and components of the helicopter simultaneously with the general contract."

Grishin explained that it would help the sides to more accurately estimate the volume and cost of the work, as well as the areas covered by each parties.

In May, Russian Helicopters, part of Rostec, and the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) signed a framework cooperation agreement to introduce an advanced heavy-lift helicopter with maximum take-off weight of 38.2 tons.

Demand for the new helicopter in China is expected to surpass 200 helicopters during the period until 2040.

Russia’s state technologies corporation Rostec plans to sign wide-ranging strategic cooperation agreements with two Chinese industrial firms, Deputy Chief Executive said.

Rostec’s agreements with China North Industries Corporation (Norinco) and China Southern Power Grid Company (CSGC) will be concluded at the 20th annual Russia-China heads of state bilateral summit on Thursday.

"With this document, we close our series of agreements with major Chinese companies. Thus we cover the entire palette of our ties with Chinese partners. These are mainly power equipment, automotive components, optical devices and materials, medical equipment and high-precision machines," Shugaev said.

The two deals are planned to be signed in the presence of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang, who co-chair the 20th summit.

"This will allow Russian and Chinese companies to begin cooperating in promoting mutual trade, investment and technical cooperation in high technologies," Shugaev said.

Norinco and CSGC are two of China’s 10 largest military-industrial complex corporations and rank 152nd and 169th, respectively, among 500 leading global companies.
Russia, China Could Sign Contract on Joint Heavy Helicopter by Mid-2016
With 46 subsidiaries, Norinco’s sales volume totaled nearly $400 billion last year, followed by nearly $300 billion by CSGC.



Read more: Russia, China Could Sign Contract on Joint Heavy Helicopter by Mid-2016

 

[dy1022]

great!

 

[TaiShang]

Russian Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak said that Russia and China will sign a bilateral memorandum on cooperation of two finance ministries.

BEIJING (Sputnik) — Representatives of both Russian and Chinese finance ministries are expected to sign on December 17 a memorandum on mutual access to the debt markets of the two states, Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak said Wednesday.

Russian delegation, headed by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, is visiting China between December 14 and 17, where a number of intergovernmental agreements are expected to be signed.

Medvedev Hopes to Sign Large Number of Agreements With China Thursday

"Tomorrow we are signing a bilateral memorandum on cooperation of two [finance] ministries. The main point, I think, [is] the sides' obligations to work on creation of conditions for mutual access of the concerned parties to the debt markets of Russia and China," Storchak told RIA Novosti.

He added that the memorandum would also address the issues of cooperation between the treasuries of the two states.

China is Russia's leading economic partner. In 2014, bilateral trade between the countries amounted to $95 billion. Currently, the two countries are actively cooperating in many fields, most notably in finance, energy, infrastructure and defense.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

And what about China's own system?
Is it that bad?

 

[beijingwalker]

And what about China's own system?
Is it that bad?

They are complementary ,actually your country tested that and showed it is one of the best in the world.

 

[TaiShang]

And what about China's own system?
Is it that bad?

The more, the merrier.

+ Geopolitics.

 

[Beidou2020]

S-400 and Su-35 deals will be a big boost for the PLA.

Bad news for Japan.

 

[dy1022]

And what about China's own system?
Is it that bad?

we refused to do TOT on HQ-9 to turkey, that's all you need to know!

Turkey's MLRS and SRBM are the resluts of TOT from China, but we won't do that anymore even a mockey version!

 

[Daniel808]

the long range of the S-400 will allow the PLA to engage targets over the East China Sea. "These missiles are capable of shooting down targets in the Diaoyu Islands airspace from the Chinese mainland."

When those Pilot from Japan flying over Diayou Islands Airspace, will be in a Cold sweats.

S-400 is Really a Good stuff.
Right know Diayou islands airspace is Safe

In addition, Russia is planning to use China's spacecraft equipment, Dmitriy Shugaev, deputy CEO in charge of international affairs at Rostec, a State-owned company in charge of Russia's arms exports, told China Daily.

Wow, That's new for me.
Nice one !

 

[dy1022]

Should deploy these S-400 missile systems to East China Sea and China's south sea as soon as possible!


just Lock some fighters from Japan and Vietnam for FUN!

 

[Akasa]

And what about China's own system?
Is it that bad?

Judging from the respective air/missile defense programs of the two countries, it seems that Russia's forte is in anti-aircraft surface-to-air missiles while China is more proficient in anti-ballistic and anti-satellite systems. This could be intentional or merely due to divergent paths in R&D. Either way, the two complement each other quite nicely.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Russia demonstrates interest in the Chinese HQ-19/26/29 systems (all of which have been tested) in the near future, as China has done so with the S400.

 

[Zarvan]

Not sure about S-400 but I would love to see S-350 in large numbers in Pakistan